智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，元旦假期白酒需求较弱，多地反馈同比下降20%+，但环比 11、12月略有改善。供给端，酒企目标降低，渠道有望进一步去库纾压。需求端，目前渠道对春节需求 预期谨慎，预计整体下滑双位数、但降幅较元旦会收窄。价格端，对于高端酒，考虑i茅台持续出货叠 加传统渠道即将到货，预计飞天批价边际持续承压。展望2026年全年，酒企从被动应对进入主动调整， 机会在于茅台批价回落并企稳之后，预期筑底企稳。 华创证券主要观点如下： 元旦需求弱复苏，批价持续低迷，但大众消费韧性较强 元旦需求较弱，多地反馈同比下降20%+，但环比11、12月略有改善。一方面元旦距离春节约一个半月 相对较远，行业仍处淡季，另一方面消费者出行较多，宴席表现一般。量价维度看，元旦期间行业出货 量预计同降10%+，商务宴请、年会团购等需求明显减少，江苏、安徽等地反馈外部政策的疤痕效应仍 在；行业价盘承压，高端酒批价同降10%+，次高端酒批价普遍同降5-10%。局部亮点是大众消费韧性 较强，四川、安徽等地反馈大众宴席及聚饮表现较好，对应80-200元价格带周转不错。 春节的三个研判：渠道去库，下滑收窄，供需矛盾有望减轻 供 ...

白酒行业遭遇逆周期，汾酒为何"特立独行"？ 近期飞天茅台市场销售价格跌破1499元官方指导价、茅台价格跌回十年前、"五粮液十年来首次降价"成了白酒行业的热门话题。 12月6日，继茅台价格波动后，五粮液调价的消息在行业内迅速发酵，自2026年起，第八代普五(52度、500ml)经销商开票价将由1019元下降至900元左 右，降幅接近12%。 据第一财经12月2日报道，山西汾酒集团党委书记、董事长袁清茂表示，白酒消费正在从传统的以政务和商务消费为支柱的增长模式，转向"悦人"与"悦 己"并存的新格局，后者也成为行业必须面对的新课题与新增长曲线。相较于行业中一些白酒巨头还在坚持走高端路线，袁清茂可以说给白酒行业"上了一 课"。 有业内人士指出，高端白酒的货币属性或正在消失，白酒行业整体低迷或成常态，各大酒企必须找到新的增长点才能应对业绩压力。 汾酒真的是茅台"老师傅"？ 如今世人只知道茅台是高端白酒的代表，却鲜有人知茅台源自汾酒。清代《汾州府志》明确记载"天下白酒出汾州。"汾酒与茅台的历史渊源，是中国白酒 发展史上一段"师承—演化—并立"的经典故事。二者虽分属清香与酱香两大香型，但茅台的酿造技艺最初正是源自汾酒，这一 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [3][20]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease. The industry is currently at a low valuation, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in, indicating a clearer direction for future industry clearing [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth consumer goods sectors, where new products and channels are expected to drive market interest and valuation premiums for "scarce" growth targets [2]. - The report highlights the strategic responses of leading companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye to industry adjustments, focusing on brand value maintenance and consumer-driven strategies [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is expected to see a weak recovery in demand due to easing policy pressures, with leading companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu being recommended for their stable pricing and strong dividend yields [2]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2025 global dealer conference outlined a focus on national expansion, youth engagement, and precise consumer targeting, indicating a proactive approach to market share growth during industry adjustments [3]. - Wuliangye has adjusted its 2025 investment plan, reducing total investment while increasing brand promotion efforts, aiming to stabilize pricing and maintain brand integrity amid market discussions about price reductions [3]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report suggests focusing on high-growth consumer goods, with companies like Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage showing promising growth trajectories [2]. - The consumer goods sector is characterized by ongoing innovation and new channel development, which are expected to attract market interest and valuation premiums [2].

年末经销商大会周期到来，新一年各家头部酒企的策略受到广泛关注。 五粮液回应：并非打款价调整 是渠道政策支持力度加大 12月5日，有市场消息称，五粮液将从明年起调整第八代五粮液价格，在1019元/瓶打款价不变的基础 上，给予打款折扣119元/瓶，即开票价为900元/瓶。据中国新闻周刊报道，有业内人士称如果算上厂家 补贴还可以降至800多元/瓶。 对此，21世纪经济报道记者向五粮液方面求证，获得的回应是，目前并非打款价调整，而是针对渠道的 支持政策力度加大。 21记者今年中秋国庆走访各类终端了解到，五粮液今年加大了对渠道的费用支持，目的是提振动销。有 知情人士介绍，今年五粮液的渠道费用进一步与开瓶扫码绑定，目的是让经销商实际销售给C端消费 者，避免窜货。 新一年的渠道政策，包括具体打款方式、如何补贴，还有待明确。针对2025年，五粮液采取的是阶梯式 补贴支持，补贴费用是打款后分阶段后返。 五粮液上次正式下调第八代五粮液的出厂价，还是十年前的2014年，当时白酒行业处于上一轮调整期， 第八代五粮液价格由729元下降到609元/瓶。 2024年2月， 第八代五粮液的出厂价上调了50元，首次站上了千元。 劲酒回应：并非 ...

Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on the "Old Bai Fen" product as a key growth driver during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming for significant market expansion in central, eastern, and southern China [1][2] - The company has set ambitious targets for its major products, including "Old Bai Fen," which is currently underperforming compared to its other series [1][2] - The management acknowledges the need for improvement in brand collaboration and market penetration for high-end products [3] Group 1 - "Old Bai Fen" is identified as a crucial growth area, with plans to enhance its market presence and achieve breakthrough expansion [1] - The company reported a decline in "Old Bai Fen" sales this year, but other products like "Glass Fen" have shown double-digit growth, helping maintain overall revenue growth [2] - The management emphasizes the importance of respecting market realities and consumer needs in the high-end liquor segment, which is facing supply-demand imbalances [2] Group 2 - For 2026, the company aims to implement "four continuous promotions" and "five unwavering commitments" to enhance its market strategy [3] - The management has identified four key areas for improvement, including brand synergy, market penetration of high-end products, aggressive category strategies, and optimization of distribution processes [3] - The "Zhuyeqing" brand is a significant part of the company's strategy, focusing on core consumer groups and product innovation [3][4] Group 3 - The main brand has initiated the "Fen Enjoy Youth" project, which includes the development of over ten new product designs aimed at younger consumers [4]

市公司 머副▷公司书 报告原因:有信息公布需要点评 型入(维持) | / הודדין | | | --- | --- | | 据: | 2025 年 12月 02 | | 市场数据: 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | | --- | | 192.16 收盘价（元） | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 228.93/168.30 | | 市净率 6.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 3.15 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) 234,428 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,897.71/13,056.70 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 31.79 | | 资产负债率% | 28.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 1,220/1,220 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | -年内股价与大盛对比走势： and and the local of the local of the local to the local the local the loc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1][6] Core Insights - The company has established a solid foundation for steady growth, with effective order management and a focus on product innovation and market expansion [6] - The company aims to enhance its brand synergy and improve its marketing strategies to better adapt to market demands and consumer preferences [6] - The financial outlook remains positive, with projected revenue growth and stable profit margins, despite some challenges in brand collaboration and market competition [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 36,011 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.8%, and is expected to grow to 40,011 million by 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 12,243 million in 2024, remaining stable in 2025, and then increasing to 13,282 million by 2027 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at 10.04 in 2024, with slight declines in 2025 and 2026, before rising to 10.89 in 2027 [2] Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in maintaining market order and channel management, which is expected to help it navigate through economic cycles effectively [6] - The stock's target price is set at 285 yuan, compared to the current price of 192.16 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [2][6] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to focus on four key areas: national expansion, youth engagement, internationalization, and precise consumer service [6] - Product innovation and marketing strategies will be enhanced to attract younger consumers and improve brand visibility [6] - The company is committed to maintaining market order and ensuring channel cooperation, which is crucial for sustaining growth in a competitive environment [6]

| 买入（维持） | | --- | | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | 上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 192.16 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 228.93/168.30 | | 市净率 | 6.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.15 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 234,428 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,897.71/13,056.70 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 31.79 | | 资产负债率% | 28.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,220/1,220 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 12-02 01-02 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, while the light bottle liquor segment is experiencing strong growth, with products like Guo Fen from Shanxi Fenjiu showing over 10% sales growth in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a shift in consumer preferences from "face consumption" to "substance consumption" [1][2]. Industry Overview - The market size of light bottle liquor has grown from 35.2 billion yuan in 2013 to over 150 billion yuan in 2024, with projections to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.8% from 2013 to 2021 [1][2]. Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies showing growth, with a reported revenue of 32.924 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, a 5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.405 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.48% [1][2]. Product Contribution - The Guo Fen product line has been a significant contributor to Shanxi Fenjiu's growth, with analysts noting that it achieved over 10% growth in the first three quarters, contrasting with the declining sales of many other products [2][3]. Competitive Landscape - The rapid growth of the light bottle liquor market has attracted numerous companies to increase their investments in this segment, with brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao launching new products aimed at capturing market share [3][4]. Market Dynamics - Despite overall growth in the light bottle liquor market, there is increasing differentiation among brands. Traditional brands like Niulanshan are facing significant challenges, with reported revenue declines of nearly 20% year-on-year [4][5]. Consumer Trends - The shift in consumer behavior is evident, with younger consumers moving from luxury packaging to a focus on quality and cost-effectiveness, prompting companies to adapt their strategies to meet the demand for high-value products [3][6]. Future Outlook - The light bottle liquor segment is expected to continue expanding, but competition is intensifying, leading to a clear differentiation among brands. Companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions are likely to thrive [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is declining, with only a few companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu showing slight growth, while the majority face significant revenue drops [1][2]. Industry Overview - In the third quarter of 2025, 20 listed baijiu companies reported their earnings, with only Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving minor increases, while 18 others experienced varying degrees of decline [1]. - The baijiu industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period due to changing consumer environments and high channel inventories [1]. Market Trends - Despite the overall downturn, the light bottle liquor segment is experiencing robust growth, with products like Shanxi Fenjiu's Guo Fen showing over 10% sales growth in the first three quarters [1][5]. - The market size of light bottle liquor has expanded from 35.2 billion yuan in 2013 to over 150 billion yuan in 2024, with projections indicating it will surpass 200 billion yuan in 2025 [1][5]. Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 32.924 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 11.405 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.48% [2]. - The growth in Shanxi Fenjiu's performance is attributed to its light bottle products, particularly Guo Fen, which has shown significant sales increases [2][5]. Competitive Landscape - The rapid growth of the light bottle liquor market has prompted many liquor companies to increase their investments in this segment, with notable entries from Yanghe and other brands [6][8]. - Analysts indicate a shift in consumer preferences from luxury packaging to quality and cost-effectiveness, driving the growth of light bottle liquor [8]. Market Challenges - Despite the overall growth in the light bottle liquor market, there is increasing differentiation among brands, with traditional brands like Niulanshan facing severe challenges [10][12]. - Niulanshan's revenue dropped by 19.79% to 5.869 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a net profit decline of 79.85% [10][12]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with many companies facing challenges due to changing consumer habits and market dynamics [13][16].