证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 12 日 Q3 业绩期临近，关注景气赛道估值切换 食品饮料行业周报（10.12） 消费品/食品饮料 本周特朗普威胁加码对华关税，盘面波动可能加剧，消费此前表现相对疲软， 低估值下配置资金有望流入。白酒双节后反馈同比下滑约 20%，与节前预期基 本一致，重点关注秋糖反馈&报表侧出清。同时，本周五粮液增持计划完成彰 显控股股东信心，白酒预期明朗后防御属性有望凸显。大众品板块，卫龙 9 月 整体增速 20%以上、魔芋产品增长良好、辣条产品基本止滑。西麦 9 月动销优 于 7-8 月，燕麦及冲泡类双节动销有所改善。农夫双节同比双位数以上增长， 东鹏 9 月动销环比略有提速、渠道推力仍足。考虑到 Q3 业绩期临近，继续关 注饮料、零食、宠物等景气赛道估值切换。 ❑ 核心公司跟踪：汾酒玻汾稳定增长，五粮液控股股东增持计划完成。 山西汾酒：玻汾保持稳增态势，25 度新品发布。公司玻汾系列产品稳健 增长，未来将重点拓展清香型消费氛围较弱的市场区域，针对"双十一" 消费季，公司将积极布局电商与即时零售渠道。公司持续采取促动销、降 库存等措施应对行业调整，保障内在价值与产品 ...

01 多维因素驱动下，各个价格带持续分化 在当前消费市场整体承压的宏观背景下，酒水行业的结构性分化趋势愈发凸显，各价格带在双节期间呈 现出截然不同的市场表现，折射出行业深层次的调整与重构。 作为礼赠市场与高端商务宴请的刚需品类，头部高端白酒在双节期间的动销稳中有升。与此同时，此前 头部酒企积极通过控量稳价策略，有效维护了核心产品的价格体系，部分高端大单品的批价也在节庆期 间逐步企稳回升。这一趋势深刻揭示出在行业周期性调整与市场竞争加剧的复杂环境下，那些拥有强大 品牌壁垒、深厚渠道掌控力与清晰战略视野的头部酒企，不仅具备穿越周期的能力，更展现出强大的定 价权与抗周期属性。 次高端及中端白酒则在双节期间面临着严峻的考验。批价普遍承压下行，部分产品价格从400元区间回 落至200-300元价格带，价格倒挂现象频现。除汾酒青花20、剑南春水晶剑等具备强势宴席场景的产品 表现相对稳健外，多数品牌动销下滑幅度超过30%，市场竞争日趋激烈。 来源：食品评论日刊 2025年的国庆与中秋双节相遇，本该是消费市场的"黄金周"，可白酒行业期盼的销售高峰却并未如期而 至。宏观数据显示，假期前四天全国重点零售和餐饮销售额同比仅增长3. ...

丨2025年10月10日星期五丨 NO.1 山西汾酒：玻汾将继续向清香消费氛围薄弱区域倾斜投放 10月6日，珠江原浆啤酒—苦瓜青瓜味全新上市。据相关介绍，该产品精选美式酒花，融入葡萄柚、柳 橙与柑橘的果香，交织草本植物与木质的香气，焕发清新风味，口感醇厚浓郁，入口微苦、渐转清爽。 值得关注的是，此次五粮液招聘提到了体能考试1000米跑步，主要考察应聘者的身体素质和体能水平， 总分为100分，低于60分视为考核不合格，不进入下一环节。 社会招聘信息中，包装操作工岗位体能考试成绩占比30%，体能考试项目为"男1000米跑步、女800米跑 步"。校园招聘信息中，酿酒操作工体能考试成绩占比30%，项目为1000米跑步。 点评：五粮液在生产岗位招聘中强调体能测试，此举反映了其作为传统酿造企业的核心特质。酿酒、包 装等环节对体力与耐力有天然要求，公司通过量化考核确保一线员工能胜任高强度工作，这是保障产品 品质与生产稳定性的举措。 NO.3 珠江啤酒推苦瓜青瓜味新品 10月9日，山西汾酒召开2025年半年度业绩说明会。对于玻汾未来的市场投放策略，公司副总经理张永 踊表示，2025年上半年，玻汾系列产品仍保持稳健增长态势，未 ...

国窖1573：预计经销商回款比例60%-70%，动销下滑30%~20%，低度国窖1573动销好于高度国窖 1573，公司持续控货挺价，低度国窖批价630元左右，高度国窖批价820-830元左右，库存占全年任务 30%左右。 申万宏源：中秋国庆白酒行业批价全面下行 消费场景仍然在恢复过程中 【中国白酒网】申万宏源发布研报称，结合2025中秋国庆白酒渠道反馈，预计2025中秋国庆白酒行 业整体需求同比下降30~20%，库存增加10-20%(全年任务量)，批价全面下行。从消费场景看，宴席表 现低于预期，有所下降，礼品需求下降，政商务场景环比改善但同比仍有明显缺口。展望明年春节，一 方面，当前渠道库存仍然较高，需要时间消化，另一方面，消费场景仍然在恢复过程中，需求仍然较 弱，且25年春节基数较高，预计26年春节动销仍有较大压力。报表端看，25Q2部分酒企报表开始释放 压力，预计25Q3报表端全面释放压力，可能会持续至26Q1。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 分品牌情况：茅台表现最优，五粮液以价换量，国窖1573控货挺价，汾酒结构平衡相对稳定，地产 酒量价承压 茅台：经销商回款进度正常，但部分大商9月货未发完，预计动销个位数 ...

分区域看，省份间延续分化态势，河南/山东/四川表现略好于预期。结合渠道反馈，河南、山东下滑双 位数略好于预期，部分终端有补货行为；四川动销下滑近20%略好于节前预期；湖南反馈下滑20%+符 合预期；江苏反馈下滑20%+符合预期，安徽反馈下滑20%-30%略不及预期。 分品牌看，茅五出货较好，地产酒降幅双位数，次高端品牌仍具压力。结合渠道反馈，茅五各地表现分 化但总体B端出货周转较好，1935保持正增长，老窖坚持挺价、出货量下降双位数；汾酒环山西反馈出 货增长；苏酒洋河动销反馈下滑20%+，今世缘反馈下滑双位数；徽酒古井动销反馈下滑10%+，迎驾下 滑双位数，口子窖仍在调整；扩张型次高端品牌持续受需求影响，舍得等动销反馈下滑30%+。 智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，白酒动销在假期前一周左右出现边际加速，后逐步趋缓，整 体预计下滑20%左右，符合节前预期。细分指标不乏小亮点：一是高端茅五核心大单品周转情况较好； 二是大众宴席需求相对坚挺，江苏/河南/四川有正增长，对应中低价格带表现较好，五粮春/红花郎等部 分产品有双位数增长；三是茅五价盘小幅下探后稳住，地产酒压货情况有好转。渠道库存方面，渠道压 货意愿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall demand for the liquor industry is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with inventory increasing by 10-20% and wholesale prices declining across the board [1] Industry Summary - The banquet consumption scenario is underperforming, with a decrease in demand for gifts, while the government and business sectors show a month-on-month improvement but still have a significant year-on-year gap [1] - High channel inventory levels will require time to digest, and the recovery of consumption scenarios remains weak, leading to pressure on sales during the 2026 Spring Festival [1] Brand Performance - **Moutai**: Normal repayment progress from distributors, with a slight decline in sales expected. The price for scattered bottles is around 1780 yuan, and for whole boxes, it is about 1835 yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to before the holiday [2] - **Wuliangye**: Expected repayment ratio of about 70%, with a sales decline of approximately 15%. The current price for Wuliangye is around 810-830 yuan, with inventory levels stable year-on-year [2] - **Guojiao 1573**: Anticipated repayment ratio of 60-70%, with a sales decline of 20-30%. The price for low-alcohol Guojiao 1573 is around 630 yuan, while high-alcohol is priced at 820-830 yuan [2] - **Fenjiu**: Expected repayment progress of 70-80%, with stable sales for glass Fenjiu. The price for Qinghua Fenjiu is around 330-360 yuan [3] - **Real Estate Liquor**: Brands like Gujing and Yingjia are experiencing sales declines of 10-20% and 20%, respectively, with significant inventory levels [3] Investment Recommendations - The industry fundamentals need to stabilize, and the speed of channel clearing is expected to be faster than that of financial report clearing. Patience is advised for sector opportunities [4] - High dividend yield stocks from leading companies are seen as a long-term investment value, with potential short-term benefits from market liquidity and sector rotation [4] - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with attention to Wuliangye, Jiusiyuan, and Yingjia [4]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3883 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 1.59 | | 深证综指 | 2519 | 0.44 | 3.1 | 2.12 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.3 | 3.22 | 19.97 | | 中盘指数 | 1.01 | 6.43 | 27.65 | | 小盘指数 | 1.04 | 2.12 | 22.08 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源金属 | 5.91 | 24.79 | 66.07 | | 航空装备Ⅱ | 3.49 | -4.64 | 23.62 | | 小金属Ⅱ | 3.41 | -6.08 | 62.35 | | 医疗服务Ⅱ | 3.09 | 1.81 | 32.18 | | 航天装 ...

食品饮料/ 自酒中 行业筑底，保持耐心 — 2025 中秋国庆白酒渠道反馈 相关研究 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× wangza@swsresearch.com 2025 年 10 月 08 日 《旺季尾声批价回稳 行业调整仍在继续一 一食品饮料行业周报 20250922- 20250926》 2025/09/27 《批价走弱 关注终端动销一 -- 食品饮料行 业周报 20250915-20250919》 2025/09/21 证券分析师 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouvuan@swsresearch.com 目昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 时代小说书 =="# 投资分析意见：结合 2025 中秋国庆白酒渠道反馈，我们预计 2025 中秋国庆白酒行业 整体需求同比下降 30~20%，库存增加 10-20% (全年任务量) , 批价全面下行。从 消费场景看，宴席表 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][4][59] Core Insights - The overall demand for the liquor industry during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year, with inventory increasing by 10-20% [3][7] - The industry is still in a bottoming phase, and patience is required for potential investment opportunities [3][7] - The report highlights that the stock price turning point may occur before the fundamental turning point, suggesting a need for cautious observation [3][7] Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoint - The report anticipates a significant decline in liquor demand, with banquet performance below expectations and gift demand decreasing [3][7] - The current high inventory levels in channels will require time to digest, and the consumption scenarios are still recovering, leading to weak demand [3][7] - Key recommendations include maintaining patience for high-dividend stocks and waiting for potential buying opportunities in quality stocks [3][7] Brand Performance - Moutai is performing the best, while Wuliangye is trading volume for price [8][9] - Moutai's expected sales decline is in single digits, with prices slightly down to around 1780-1835 yuan [8] - Wuliangye's sales are expected to drop by about 15%, with current prices around 810-830 yuan [8] - Guojiao 1573 is controlling inventory to maintain prices, with expected sales declines of 20-30% [8][9] Regional Liquor Situation - Feedback from various regions indicates a general decline in sales, with specific brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing varying performance [11][19] - The report notes that the business and banquet consumption scenarios are under pressure, with overall sales expected to decline by 30-25% during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [44][49] - The report emphasizes the need for careful monitoring of inventory levels and sales performance across different brands and regions [11][19] Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the food and beverage sector, highlighting projected net profits and PE ratios for companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [53]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage ETF Tianhong (159736) has shown significant market activity, with a notable inflow of funds and rising stock prices among key components, indicating a positive trend in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Tianhong food and beverage ETF (159736) experienced a slight decline of 0.28% as of the latest report, with a premium rate of 0.04% and frequent premium trading observed [1]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of nearly 170 million yuan over the past nine trading days, with a total circulation of 7.62 billion shares, reaching a historical high [2]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Key component stocks such as Yangyuan Beverage, Gujing Gongjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others have shown price increases, with Yangyuan Beverage rising over 4% [2]. - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, which includes major stocks from the beverage, packaged food, and meat industries, featuring top holdings like Kweichow Moutai, Yili, and Wuliangye [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - Reports indicate a significant increase in the prices of premium liquor, with notable price hikes for products like Feitian Moutai and other well-known brands over a short period [3]. - The liquor market is experiencing a surge in demand, particularly in the mid-range price segment (50-200 yuan), with increased sales reported across various regions [3]. - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to boost tourism and consumer spending, with a projected 130% increase in travel compared to the previous year, indicating a potential for strong sales in the food and beverage sector [4].