2026年马年春节作为假期延长后的首个春节，叠加消费市场持续回暖的利好态势，成为检验酒类产业转型成效、洞察消费趋势变革的关键窗口。中国酒业 协会结合全国多地市场调研、渠道反馈及第三方数据监测发现，马年春节酒类消费市场呈现"结构分化、理性升级、场景多元、品质为王"的鲜明特征，高 端酒稳健承压、大众酒韧性凸显、特色酒多点突破，行业正从"规模扩张"向"质效提升"稳步迈进，在团圆年味中书写高质量发展的新答卷。 一、消费核心转向：理性回归主导，品质需求凸显 马年春节，酒类消费彻底告别"盲目攀比、过度消费"的旧模式，"少喝、喝好、喝对"成为主流共识，消费者决策更趋理性，品质与性价比成为核心考量因 素，这也与行业长期"由规模向质量的转型方向高度契合。 从消费行为来看，消费者主权时代特征愈发明显，开瓶率取代渠道库存成为衡量品牌健康度的核心指标，头部酒企纷纷通过精准投放、扫码促销等措施， 将资源集中于促进终端开瓶，推动行业增长引擎切换至真实消费。调研显示，春节期间多数消费者饮酒频次较往年有所减少，但对酒体品质、酿造工艺的 关注度显著提升。 价格带表现呈现清晰的"两极稳健、中端承压"格局：100元以下光瓶酒、口粮酒销量同比增长； ...

24 February 2026 | 12:16AM HKT Equity Research China Consumer Staples: LNY expert calls: Spirits: Moutai/Wuliangye pivoting to recovery path; Dairy saw disciplined pricing yet unexciting On Feb 23, we hosted an expert call with a large spirits and F&B distributor located in Hunan province. Key highlights: 1) Spirits: Feitian Moutai volume/pricing topped expectations during the CNY period in the expert's region, with Feitian Moutai spirits retail sales volume up >20% yoy offsetting shipment control on non-st ...

行业点评报告 | 食品饮料 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2026 年 02 月 24 日 相关研究 【兴证食饮】餐饮链克危寻机，同时关 注食品春节备货-2026.01.21 【兴证食饮】保健品行业：赛道长青， 新消费重构增长逻辑-2026.01.12 分析师：沈昊 S0190525010006 shenhao@xyzq.com.cn 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/3 ⚫ 春节动销符合预期，高端突出，大众价格带表现稳健。根据渠道反馈，春节白酒动销普 遍下滑 10-20%，边际改善，整体表现符合此前预期。分区域看，经济基础、饮酒氛围 好的河南、四川、华东等市场反馈动销下滑约 10%左右，山东、安徽等市场下滑幅度约 20%。分场景看，受禁酒令影响商务宴请依旧承压，礼赠需求有所恢复，自饮及中低端 宴席需求相对稳健。春节期间，不同价格带动销表现有所分化，高端表现突出，i 茅台 上线普飞刺激需求，100-200 元大众价格带动销平稳，而次高端价格带承压较大、春节 期间动销下滑约 20%左右。 ⚫ 茅台市场化改革初步显效，基本面表现好于预期。茅台以消费者为中心，积极推进市场 化转型，强化 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - During the Spring Festival, national catering and retail consumption showed steady growth, with holiday consumption potential continuing to be released. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the first four days of the Spring Festival in 2026 increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025 [5][19] - The performance of Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as some mid-to-low-end price segments, exceeded expectations, while the overall performance of Fenjiu remained stable [15][19] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoints - Moutai and mid-to-low-end liquor sales during the Spring Festival showed growth, while sub-premium liquor continued to face pressure. Moutai's repayment progress slightly exceeded the same period last year, and Wuliangye's repayment progress remained stable [15][6] - The mid-to-low-end liquor segment is expected to achieve double-digit growth during the Spring Festival, while high-end liquor sales are under pressure [15][6] 2. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Industry Index (801120.SL) dropping by 2.51% during the week of February 9 to February 14, ranking 29th among 30 Shenwan primary industries [20] - All sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry saw declines, with meat products, health products, and baked goods experiencing relatively smaller drops [20] 3. Key Company Announcements - Luzhou Laojiao announced that the number of restricted stock units eligible for release is 1,962,814 shares, accounting for 0.1333% of the company's total share capital [29] - Miaokelan Duo signed a memorandum with SADAFCO to explore the market for children's cheese snacks in Saudi Arabia [29] 4. Important Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced anti-subsidy measures for EU companies, with rates ranging from 7.4% to 11.7%, effective from February 13, 2026 [31] - Kangshifu launched a new product, Kangshifu Ice Red Tea Energy, entering the energy drink market [31] 5. Industry Chain Data Tracking - As of February 10, 2026, wheat prices were 2,510.8 RMB/ton, up 6.45% year-on-year, while pork prices were 18.08 RMB/kg, down 11.63% year-on-year [34][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the structural differentiation in the Chinese liquor market, particularly the impact of Moutai's price rationalization on the mid-range liquor segment, which is facing significant challenges [2][6][7] - Moutai's price has shifted from a speculative high to a more rational level, with the official price set at 1499 yuan and market prices stabilizing between 1699 and 1999 yuan, enhancing market efficiency [6][7] - The rationalization of Moutai's pricing has weakened its role as a price benchmark, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of mid-range products as consumers opt for either Moutai or lower-priced options [7][10] Group 2 - The mid-range liquor segment is experiencing a "double squeeze," facing upward pressure from high-end products and downward competition from low-end products, particularly the rising quality of low-end liquors like light bottle wines [8][10] - Low-end products, priced between 30 and 80 yuan, are increasingly appealing to price-sensitive consumers, further constricting the market space for mid-range liquors [10] - The mid-range segment must move beyond price competition and focus on creating unique value propositions, such as targeting specific consumer scenarios and emphasizing the uniqueness of production processes [11][13] Group 3 - To survive, mid-range liquor brands need to optimize their channel structures and avoid over-reliance on inventory pressure, focusing instead on healthy relationships with distributors [13] - The return to rational pricing in the Moutai segment is not a market downturn but a re-evaluation of value, indicating that brands that can establish a clear identity and unique value will thrive in the evolving market landscape [13]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a "moderate recovery under structural differentiation" during the 2026 Spring Festival, with strong demand for high-end brands and stable growth for mass-market products, while mid-range products face pressure [2] Group 1: High-End Market Performance - Moutai is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with many distributors reporting sold-out quotas for January and February 2026, leading to price increases [3] - As of February 21, 2026, the wholesale price of Moutai reached 1,700 RMB per bottle, up 10 RMB from the previous day, indicating a significant recovery from a low of 1,500 RMB earlier in the year [3] - Moutai's sales performance is strong, with distributors achieving 35%-40% of their annual payment plans by February 11, 2026, and sales growth of 10%-20% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Other High-End Brands - Wuliangye is also performing well, with distributors achieving around 40% of their annual payment plans by February 11, 2026, although sales growth varies by region [4] - The price of Wuliangye's mainstream product has increased from 760 RMB to a range of 780-800 RMB per bottle since the beginning of the year [4] Group 3: Mid-Range and Mass Market Trends - Mid-range brands are experiencing sales slowdowns and market share pressures, with some products seeing declines of over 20% due to reduced business banquets [5][6] - Mass-market products are showing resilience, supported by banquet and everyday consumption, with brands like Gujinggong and Shanxi Fenjiu performing well [6][7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with younger consumers favoring brands in the 100-300 RMB price range, leading to increased sales in larger supermarkets compared to smaller stores [7] - The demand for Guojian series liquor from Jinshiyuan has increased significantly during the Spring Festival, replacing traditional gift items [7] Group 5: Post-Festival Market Outlook - Despite strong sales during the Spring Festival, the liquor industry may face demand decline post-holiday, with potential inventory buildup and price corrections anticipated [8] - The long-term outlook suggests that many liquor businesses may exit the market, leading to a supply of discounted products [9] Group 6: Broader Consumption Trends - Moutai is expanding its consumer base beyond traditional customers, with a significant portion of participants in a survey indicating they included Moutai in their New Year's Eve dinners this year [10]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a "moderate recovery under structural differentiation" during the 2026 Spring Festival, with strong demand for high-end brands, stable growth for mass-market products, and pressure on mid-range categories [1][10]. High-End Brands - Moutai is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with many distributors reporting sold-out quotas for January-February 2026, leading to price increases. The wholesale price for Moutai has risen to 1,700 RMB per bottle, up from a low of 1,500 RMB earlier in the year [2][12]. - As of February 11, 2026, Moutai's sales growth is significantly outperforming the industry, with a year-on-year increase of 10%-20% in multiple regions [2][12]. - Wuliangye is also performing well, with distributors achieving around 40% of their annual sales targets by February 11, although regional sales performance varies [3][12]. Mid-Range and Low-End Products - Mid-range brands are under pressure, with many experiencing slower sales and market share erosion. For example, Gujing Gongjiu's high-end products have seen a decline of over 20% due to reduced business banquets [4][5]. - In contrast, low-end products are maintaining resilience, supported by banquet and everyday consumption. Sales in the 100-300 RMB price range have shown significant improvement compared to the previous year [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The overall economic environment remains challenging, and the current surge in liquor sales is largely attributed to pre-holiday demand, which may lead to inventory buildup and price corrections post-holiday [7][16]. - The liquor industry is expected to see more operators exit the market in the next 3-5 years, driven by survival and payment crises, which may lead to a continuous supply of low-priced liquor [8][17]. Consumer Trends - Moutai is expanding its consumer base beyond traditional high-end customers, with a notable increase in family consumption during the Spring Festival. A survey indicated that 43.85% of participants included Moutai in their New Year's Eve dinners this year [9][17].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the sales performance of key brands is expected to accelerate in the week before the Spring Festival, with tight supply and rising prices supporting market sentiment. Despite a potential decline in financial reports for 2026, leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have safe margins in valuation and dividends, suggesting a potential dual upgrade in performance and valuation as negative factors gradually dissipate [1] Industry Overview - Sales performance before the Spring Festival is expected to decline but aligns with forecasts, with Moutai showing leading market conditions. The overall industry is experiencing a double-digit decline in sales, but confidence is gradually recovering as companies ease pressure on sales targets [2] - The overall collection and delivery progress in the industry is slower than the same period last year, with Moutai and Wuliangye showing faster delivery rates. The inventory levels of distributors are lower than last year, but the days of inventory have not decreased significantly due to slower sales [2] Product Analysis - Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with a projected net increase of over 2,000 tons in January. Wuliangye's sales are expected to remain stable, while other brands like Laojiao and Fenjiu are experiencing varying degrees of decline [3] - The demand for low-end products remains, but brands like Jiannanchun and Yanghe are seeing significant declines in sales, with some brands experiencing double-digit drops [3] Consumption Scenarios - Business dining consumption remains suppressed, with mid-to-high-end dining showing poor performance. However, there is a rebound in gift-giving consumption, and the demand for affordable genuine products is increasing, with the proportion of mass consumption rising to 20% [4] Future Outlook - There is potential for further sales growth during the Spring Festival, with Moutai's supply-demand imbalance expected to continue into Q1, supporting prices. The overall industry volume and price have not yet bottomed out, and close attention is needed on the recovery of Wuliangye and Fenjiu's sales and distributor confidence [5] Institutional Holdings - Institutional holdings in the liquor sector are at historical lows, with the proportion of actively managed funds in the liquor sector dropping to 3.5% in Q4 2025. The overweight ratio has also decreased, indicating a stabilization in holdings among major liquor companies [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned to benefit from the differentiation of flavor types, national expansion, and a multi-price product strategy, with significant growth potential projected [13][20] - The company aims to achieve revenue visibility of 600-700 billion RMB in the medium to long term, with a focus on the growth of its core products [14][19] Summary by Sections 1. National Expansion and Market Position - The report highlights the strong momentum of the national expansion of the Qingxiang Fenjiu brand, with significant growth potential in market share [20] - The company has successfully established a solid foundation in its home market of Shanxi, which supports its expansion into other regions [33][38] 2. Product Strategy and Core Offerings - Shanxi Fenjiu has a diverse product portfolio across various price segments, which enhances its growth potential and resilience against market fluctuations [51] - The company has introduced a "professional operation, four-wheel drive" strategy to optimize resource allocation among its key product lines [53] 3. Channel Management and Organizational Efficiency - The report notes improvements in channel management and the effectiveness of the sales team, which contribute to the company's operational efficiency [19][40] - The introduction of the "Fen Enjoy Benefits" system aids in fine-tuning channel control and maintaining price stability [19][30] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach 41.66 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [1] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 shows a gradual increase, with estimates of 12.25 billion RMB in 2025 and 13.72 billion RMB in 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned as a leading brand in the clear aroma liquor segment, benefiting from differentiated flavor profiles, national expansion, and a multi-price product strategy, with a significant growth potential projected to reach 600-700 billion RMB in revenue in the medium to long term [13][14] - The company is actively exploring brand rejuvenation and targeting younger consumers through innovative marketing strategies and product offerings [22][28] - The nationalization strategy 2.0 is being implemented, focusing on deepening market penetration and optimizing product management across various regions [30][33] Summary by Sections 1. Clear Aroma Liquor Expansion - The clear aroma liquor segment is expected to grow significantly, with Shanxi Fenjiu's market share projected to increase from 0.7% to 4.5% from 2016 to 2024 [20] - The company is targeting a "three-way split" market structure in the next high-end price segment, with substantial growth opportunities identified [20][21] 2. Multi-Price Product Strategy - Shanxi Fenjiu has a diverse product portfolio across various price segments, which enhances its growth potential and resilience against market fluctuations [51] - The company has introduced a "four-wheel drive" strategy for product management, focusing on key product lines to optimize resource allocation [53][54] 3. Channel Management and Organizational Efficiency - The company has refined its channel management through the "Fen Enjoy Benefits" system, which enhances pricing stability and incentivizes sales performance [19][30] - Shanxi Fenjiu's sales team remains stable, with a clear career progression path that fosters motivation and productivity among frontline sales personnel [19][30] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach 37,875 million RMB in 2026, and net profit projected at 12,416 million RMB [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to grow from 10.04 RMB in 2024 to 10.18 RMB in 2026, reflecting a positive outlook for profitability [1]