Core Insights - The 2026 Year of the Horse Spring Festival marks a critical window for assessing the transformation of the liquor industry and understanding changes in consumer trends, characterized by "structural differentiation, rational upgrades, diverse scenarios, and quality supremacy" [2][13] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - The core of consumption has shifted towards rationality, with a consensus emerging around "drink less, drink well, and drink right," leading to a focus on quality and cost-effectiveness [4][15] - The opening rate has replaced channel inventory as the key indicator of brand health, with major liquor companies focusing on promoting actual consumption through targeted promotions [4][15] - Sales performance shows a clear "two-pole stability, mid-range pressure" pattern, with sales of light and staple liquors under 100 yuan increasing, while high-end liquors around 1,000 yuan remain strong, and mid-range products face a decline of 10%-20% in sales [4][15] Group 2: Product Categories and Scenarios - Traditional liquor categories maintain their foundation, while innovative categories are breaking through, creating a healthy ecosystem of "classic empowerment and innovative supplementation" [4][15] - The white liquor market remains dominant, with strong performances from brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, while the market is increasingly concentrating resources on leading brands and quality production areas [5][16] - Specialty liquors such as low-alcohol beverages and wines are gaining traction, appealing to younger consumers and adapting to various consumption scenarios [7][18] Group 3: Channel Evolution - The sales channels for liquor are evolving, with a deepening integration of online and offline strategies, shifting competition from inventory to efficiency and experience [8][19] - Online channels are seeing a rise in live-streaming e-commerce, focusing on brand building and cultural transmission, while instant retail is becoming a new growth driver [8][19] - Offline channels remain crucial for gift consumption, with products priced between 100-300 yuan being the main sales force, and experiential services enhancing consumer selection experiences [8][19] Group 4: Industry Trends - The liquor consumption market's performance during the Spring Festival outlines a future path where rational consumption becomes the norm, quality innovation is the core competitive edge, and channel efficiency and scenario adaptation are key to breakthroughs [9][20] - The industry is expected to focus on quality as a long-term direction, with a need for continuous improvement in brewing techniques and technological innovation [11][22] - The trend towards green and low-carbon practices is becoming essential, aligning with national strategies and rational consumption trends [11][22]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Consumer Staples: Spirits and Dairy Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the spirits and dairy sectors in China, particularly in the Hunan province, highlighting the performance of major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Mengniu. Spirits Sector Moutai - Feitian Moutai's retail sales volume increased by over 20% year-on-year during the Chinese New Year (CNY) period, exceeding expectations despite shipment controls on non-standard SKUs [1][9] - Moutai 1935 showed mild growth, outperforming other products in the Moutai series [1][9] - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai rose to approximately Rmb1,700, with channel inventory remaining stable at around 0.5 months [1][9] - The expert anticipates that Moutai could bottom out around mid-2026 if retail sales momentum remains strong [2][6] Wuliangye - Common Wuliangye experienced mid-single-digit percentage retail volume growth in early February, gaining market share from Guojiao 1573 due to enhanced affordability [1][9] - The effective ex-factory price for Common Wuliangye decreased to around Rmb810, with expectations of further reductions [1][9] - The company achieved a 40% prepayment target by the end of CNY, although this pace is slightly slower than the previous year [1][9] Luzhou Laojiao - Guojiao 1573's retail volume dropped by approximately 30% during the CNY period, facing challenges in maintaining wholesale price stability [1][8] - Luzhou Laojiao is under pressure to stabilize prices amid declining demand [2][6] Other Brands - Brands like Fen Wine, Yanghe, Jiugui, and Shede saw broad-based sales declines of 15-20% [1][14] - Fen Wine's Qinghua series experienced a low-teens percentage decline, while Bofen remained slightly positive [1][14] Dairy Sector - Both Yili and Mengniu reported positive sell-in shipments during January, but holiday sell-through saw a slight decline due to weakening gifting demand [1][12] - Premium products like Satine and Deluxe outperformed basic white milk, indicating a shift in consumer preference [1][12] - Mengniu's sales decline narrowed to low-single digits compared to low-teens last year, aided by a lower comparison base [1][12] - The expert remains cautious about 2026 full-year sell-in targets, suggesting a more realistic outlook of flat to -5% for Yili and +6% for Mengniu [1][12] Beverages Sector - Nongfu's small-pack water and sugar-free tea registered high-single-digit percentage sell-through growth, while large-pack volume doubled due to strong promotions [1][13] - CR Beverages and Wahaha experienced declines in water sales, indicating competitive pressures [1][13] - Eastroc is on track to meet its 20% sales growth target, with energy drinks growing just under 15% [1][16] Inventory and Prepayment Insights - Moutai and Wuliangye maintain low channel inventories of 0.5 to 1 month, while other upper-mid-end brands face over 2.5 months of inventory [1][11] - Prepayment progress for various brands is lagging behind last year, with Wuliangye and Laojiao showing slower prepayment paces [1][14] Conclusion - The spirits sector shows a divergence in performance, with Moutai leading and Wuliangye following, while other brands face significant challenges. The dairy sector is experiencing a shift towards premium products, and the beverage sector is consolidating with strong growth from Nongfu. Overall, cautious optimism is noted for the upcoming periods, with varying recovery timelines across brands.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The sales performance of liquor during the Spring Festival met expectations, with high-end products showing strong performance while mass-market segments remained stable. Overall sales declined by 10-20%, with regional variations noted [1] - Moutai's market-oriented reforms are showing initial positive effects, with significant user growth and improved sales data. The company is focusing on consumer-centric strategies and enhancing its direct sales system [1] - Other brands are experiencing continued differentiation, with first and second-tier brands performing relatively steadily. Strategies include rational inventory reduction and promotional sales [1] - Looking ahead, the post-festival season may see a bottoming out of prices, with potential improvements expected in Q2 due to low comparative bases from the previous year [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Spring Festival liquor sales declined by 10-20%, with high-end products performing well and mass-market segments remaining stable. Specific regions like Henan and Sichuan saw around a 10% decline, while Shandong and Anhui experienced about a 20% drop [1] - Different price segments showed varied performance, with high-end products like Moutai performing strongly, while mid-tier products faced significant pressure [1] Moutai's Market Reforms - Moutai's consumer-focused market reforms are yielding positive results, with a notable increase in users and sales orders. The company is effectively managing its inventory and pricing strategies [1] Brand Differentiation - The liquor industry is seeing a continuation of brand differentiation, with first and second-tier brands maintaining stable performance. Strategies include inventory reduction and promotional activities to stimulate sales [1] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to enter a traditional consumption off-season post-Spring Festival, with potential price stabilization and improvements anticipated in Q2. The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival will be a critical period for assessing demand recovery [1]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - During the Spring Festival, national catering and retail consumption showed steady growth, with holiday consumption potential continuing to be released. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the first four days of the Spring Festival in 2026 increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025 [5][19] - The performance of Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as some mid-to-low-end price segments, exceeded expectations, while the overall performance of Fenjiu remained stable [15][19] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoints - Moutai and mid-to-low-end liquor sales during the Spring Festival showed growth, while sub-premium liquor continued to face pressure. Moutai's repayment progress slightly exceeded the same period last year, and Wuliangye's repayment progress remained stable [15][6] - The mid-to-low-end liquor segment is expected to achieve double-digit growth during the Spring Festival, while high-end liquor sales are under pressure [15][6] 2. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Industry Index (801120.SL) dropping by 2.51% during the week of February 9 to February 14, ranking 29th among 30 Shenwan primary industries [20] - All sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry saw declines, with meat products, health products, and baked goods experiencing relatively smaller drops [20] 3. Key Company Announcements - Luzhou Laojiao announced that the number of restricted stock units eligible for release is 1,962,814 shares, accounting for 0.1333% of the company's total share capital [29] - Miaokelan Duo signed a memorandum with SADAFCO to explore the market for children's cheese snacks in Saudi Arabia [29] 4. Important Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced anti-subsidy measures for EU companies, with rates ranging from 7.4% to 11.7%, effective from February 13, 2026 [31] - Kangshifu launched a new product, Kangshifu Ice Red Tea Energy, entering the energy drink market [31] 5. Industry Chain Data Tracking - As of February 10, 2026, wheat prices were 2,510.8 RMB/ton, up 6.45% year-on-year, while pork prices were 18.08 RMB/kg, down 11.63% year-on-year [34][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the structural differentiation in the Chinese liquor market, particularly the impact of Moutai's price rationalization on the mid-range liquor segment, which is facing significant challenges [2][6][7] - Moutai's price has shifted from a speculative high to a more rational level, with the official price set at 1499 yuan and market prices stabilizing between 1699 and 1999 yuan, enhancing market efficiency [6][7] - The rationalization of Moutai's pricing has weakened its role as a price benchmark, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of mid-range products as consumers opt for either Moutai or lower-priced options [7][10] Group 2 - The mid-range liquor segment is experiencing a "double squeeze," facing upward pressure from high-end products and downward competition from low-end products, particularly the rising quality of low-end liquors like light bottle wines [8][10] - Low-end products, priced between 30 and 80 yuan, are increasingly appealing to price-sensitive consumers, further constricting the market space for mid-range liquors [10] - The mid-range segment must move beyond price competition and focus on creating unique value propositions, such as targeting specific consumer scenarios and emphasizing the uniqueness of production processes [11][13] Group 3 - To survive, mid-range liquor brands need to optimize their channel structures and avoid over-reliance on inventory pressure, focusing instead on healthy relationships with distributors [13] - The return to rational pricing in the Moutai segment is not a market downturn but a re-evaluation of value, indicating that brands that can establish a clear identity and unique value will thrive in the evolving market landscape [13]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a "moderate recovery under structural differentiation" during the 2026 Spring Festival, with strong demand for high-end brands and stable growth for mass-market products, while mid-range products face pressure [2] Group 1: High-End Market Performance - Moutai is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with many distributors reporting sold-out quotas for January and February 2026, leading to price increases [3] - As of February 21, 2026, the wholesale price of Moutai reached 1,700 RMB per bottle, up 10 RMB from the previous day, indicating a significant recovery from a low of 1,500 RMB earlier in the year [3] - Moutai's sales performance is strong, with distributors achieving 35%-40% of their annual payment plans by February 11, 2026, and sales growth of 10%-20% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Other High-End Brands - Wuliangye is also performing well, with distributors achieving around 40% of their annual payment plans by February 11, 2026, although sales growth varies by region [4] - The price of Wuliangye's mainstream product has increased from 760 RMB to a range of 780-800 RMB per bottle since the beginning of the year [4] Group 3: Mid-Range and Mass Market Trends - Mid-range brands are experiencing sales slowdowns and market share pressures, with some products seeing declines of over 20% due to reduced business banquets [5][6] - Mass-market products are showing resilience, supported by banquet and everyday consumption, with brands like Gujinggong and Shanxi Fenjiu performing well [6][7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with younger consumers favoring brands in the 100-300 RMB price range, leading to increased sales in larger supermarkets compared to smaller stores [7] - The demand for Guojian series liquor from Jinshiyuan has increased significantly during the Spring Festival, replacing traditional gift items [7] Group 5: Post-Festival Market Outlook - Despite strong sales during the Spring Festival, the liquor industry may face demand decline post-holiday, with potential inventory buildup and price corrections anticipated [8] - The long-term outlook suggests that many liquor businesses may exit the market, leading to a supply of discounted products [9] Group 6: Broader Consumption Trends - Moutai is expanding its consumer base beyond traditional customers, with a significant portion of participants in a survey indicating they included Moutai in their New Year's Eve dinners this year [10]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a "moderate recovery under structural differentiation" during the 2026 Spring Festival, with strong demand for high-end brands, stable growth for mass-market products, and pressure on mid-range categories [1][10]. High-End Brands - Moutai is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with many distributors reporting sold-out quotas for January-February 2026, leading to price increases. The wholesale price for Moutai has risen to 1,700 RMB per bottle, up from a low of 1,500 RMB earlier in the year [2][12]. - As of February 11, 2026, Moutai's sales growth is significantly outperforming the industry, with a year-on-year increase of 10%-20% in multiple regions [2][12]. - Wuliangye is also performing well, with distributors achieving around 40% of their annual sales targets by February 11, although regional sales performance varies [3][12]. Mid-Range and Low-End Products - Mid-range brands are under pressure, with many experiencing slower sales and market share erosion. For example, Gujing Gongjiu's high-end products have seen a decline of over 20% due to reduced business banquets [4][5]. - In contrast, low-end products are maintaining resilience, supported by banquet and everyday consumption. Sales in the 100-300 RMB price range have shown significant improvement compared to the previous year [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The overall economic environment remains challenging, and the current surge in liquor sales is largely attributed to pre-holiday demand, which may lead to inventory buildup and price corrections post-holiday [7][16]. - The liquor industry is expected to see more operators exit the market in the next 3-5 years, driven by survival and payment crises, which may lead to a continuous supply of low-priced liquor [8][17]. Consumer Trends - Moutai is expanding its consumer base beyond traditional high-end customers, with a notable increase in family consumption during the Spring Festival. A survey indicated that 43.85% of participants included Moutai in their New Year's Eve dinners this year [9][17].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the sales performance of key brands is expected to accelerate in the week before the Spring Festival, with tight supply and rising prices supporting market sentiment. Despite a potential decline in financial reports for 2026, leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have safe margins in valuation and dividends, suggesting a potential dual upgrade in performance and valuation as negative factors gradually dissipate [1] Industry Overview - Sales performance before the Spring Festival is expected to decline but aligns with forecasts, with Moutai showing leading market conditions. The overall industry is experiencing a double-digit decline in sales, but confidence is gradually recovering as companies ease pressure on sales targets [2] - The overall collection and delivery progress in the industry is slower than the same period last year, with Moutai and Wuliangye showing faster delivery rates. The inventory levels of distributors are lower than last year, but the days of inventory have not decreased significantly due to slower sales [2] Product Analysis - Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with a projected net increase of over 2,000 tons in January. Wuliangye's sales are expected to remain stable, while other brands like Laojiao and Fenjiu are experiencing varying degrees of decline [3] - The demand for low-end products remains, but brands like Jiannanchun and Yanghe are seeing significant declines in sales, with some brands experiencing double-digit drops [3] Consumption Scenarios - Business dining consumption remains suppressed, with mid-to-high-end dining showing poor performance. However, there is a rebound in gift-giving consumption, and the demand for affordable genuine products is increasing, with the proportion of mass consumption rising to 20% [4] Future Outlook - There is potential for further sales growth during the Spring Festival, with Moutai's supply-demand imbalance expected to continue into Q1, supporting prices. The overall industry volume and price have not yet bottomed out, and close attention is needed on the recovery of Wuliangye and Fenjiu's sales and distributor confidence [5] Institutional Holdings - Institutional holdings in the liquor sector are at historical lows, with the proportion of actively managed funds in the liquor sector dropping to 3.5% in Q4 2025. The overweight ratio has also decreased, indicating a stabilization in holdings among major liquor companies [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned to benefit from the differentiation of flavor types, national expansion, and a multi-price product strategy, with significant growth potential projected [13][20] - The company aims to achieve revenue visibility of 600-700 billion RMB in the medium to long term, with a focus on the growth of its core products [14][19] Summary by Sections 1. National Expansion and Market Position - The report highlights the strong momentum of the national expansion of the Qingxiang Fenjiu brand, with significant growth potential in market share [20] - The company has successfully established a solid foundation in its home market of Shanxi, which supports its expansion into other regions [33][38] 2. Product Strategy and Core Offerings - Shanxi Fenjiu has a diverse product portfolio across various price segments, which enhances its growth potential and resilience against market fluctuations [51] - The company has introduced a "professional operation, four-wheel drive" strategy to optimize resource allocation among its key product lines [53] 3. Channel Management and Organizational Efficiency - The report notes improvements in channel management and the effectiveness of the sales team, which contribute to the company's operational efficiency [19][40] - The introduction of the "Fen Enjoy Benefits" system aids in fine-tuning channel control and maintaining price stability [19][30] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach 41.66 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [1] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 shows a gradual increase, with estimates of 12.25 billion RMB in 2025 and 13.72 billion RMB in 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned as a leading brand in the clear aroma liquor segment, benefiting from differentiated flavor profiles, national expansion, and a multi-price product strategy, with a significant growth potential projected to reach 600-700 billion RMB in revenue in the medium to long term [13][14] - The company is actively exploring brand rejuvenation and targeting younger consumers through innovative marketing strategies and product offerings [22][28] - The nationalization strategy 2.0 is being implemented, focusing on deepening market penetration and optimizing product management across various regions [30][33] Summary by Sections 1. Clear Aroma Liquor Expansion - The clear aroma liquor segment is expected to grow significantly, with Shanxi Fenjiu's market share projected to increase from 0.7% to 4.5% from 2016 to 2024 [20] - The company is targeting a "three-way split" market structure in the next high-end price segment, with substantial growth opportunities identified [20][21] 2. Multi-Price Product Strategy - Shanxi Fenjiu has a diverse product portfolio across various price segments, which enhances its growth potential and resilience against market fluctuations [51] - The company has introduced a "four-wheel drive" strategy for product management, focusing on key product lines to optimize resource allocation [53][54] 3. Channel Management and Organizational Efficiency - The company has refined its channel management through the "Fen Enjoy Benefits" system, which enhances pricing stability and incentivizes sales performance [19][30] - Shanxi Fenjiu's sales team remains stable, with a clear career progression path that fosters motivation and productivity among frontline sales personnel [19][30] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach 37,875 million RMB in 2026, and net profit projected at 12,416 million RMB [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to grow from 10.04 RMB in 2024 to 10.18 RMB in 2026, reflecting a positive outlook for profitability [1]