智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，元旦假期白酒需求较弱，多地反馈同比下降20%+，但环比 11、12月略有改善。供给端，酒企目标降低，渠道有望进一步去库纾压。需求端，目前渠道对春节需求 预期谨慎，预计整体下滑双位数、但降幅较元旦会收窄。价格端，对于高端酒，考虑i茅台持续出货叠 加传统渠道即将到货，预计飞天批价边际持续承压。展望2026年全年，酒企从被动应对进入主动调整， 机会在于茅台批价回落并企稳之后，预期筑底企稳。 华创证券主要观点如下： 元旦需求弱复苏，批价持续低迷，但大众消费韧性较强 元旦需求较弱，多地反馈同比下降20%+，但环比11、12月略有改善。一方面元旦距离春节约一个半月 相对较远，行业仍处淡季，另一方面消费者出行较多，宴席表现一般。量价维度看，元旦期间行业出货 量预计同降10%+，商务宴请、年会团购等需求明显减少，江苏、安徽等地反馈外部政策的疤痕效应仍 在；行业价盘承压，高端酒批价同降10%+，次高端酒批价普遍同降5-10%。局部亮点是大众消费韧性 较强，四川、安徽等地反馈大众宴席及聚饮表现较好，对应80-200元价格带周转不错。 春节的三个研判：渠道去库，下滑收窄，供需矛盾有望减轻 供 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquor industry is currently facing supply-demand imbalances, with companies reducing growth expectations and releasing channel pressures. The white liquor index has dropped by 12% since the beginning of 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 33% [1][11] - The report highlights that the overall market demand for white liquor has shown slight recovery, but actual demand remains weak, with mainstream product prices in a downward trend. Companies like Wuliangye and Gujing Gongjiu are reducing growth expectations, leading to significant declines in Q3 performance [1][22] - The report suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a configuration phase, with leading companies like Kweichow Moutai improving their price-volume relationship and showcasing dividend asset attributes, with a projected dividend yield of 4% in 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report anticipates that supply-side optimization and channel clearing will occur, with a focus on quality company configurations. The industry is expected to see gradual recovery in demand, particularly during the Spring Festival sales period [2][29] - The report notes that channel inventory has decreased since Q3 2025, and companies are focusing on maintaining dynamic profits for distributors. Leading companies are gradually relaxing channel policies, indicating a stabilization trend in product prices post-holiday [2][42] - The competitive landscape is shifting from price differentiation to brand and organizational capabilities, with companies that can establish pricing power in specific regions or demographics likely to emerge from the adjustment cycle first [2][29] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest that the white liquor sector is now in a configuration zone, with a focus on brands that can navigate through cycles, such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to see valuation improvements as market liquidity increases [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that have established advantages in pricing and regional market share during the adjustment phase, such as Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jinhui Liquor [3][4] - The report also highlights companies with strong shareholder returns and cash flow safety margins, such as Wuliangye, as potential investment opportunities [3][4]

文丨华策咨询 王云利 清香型白酒行业竞争格局：机遇与挤压并存 1、品类复兴态势下的结构性机遇 2024 年清香型白酒销售额突破 1000 亿元，同比增长 13%，利润增速达 17%，远超酱酒 3%-4% 的增速水平。这一增长得益于两大核心驱动：一是汾酒引 领的品类价值提升，其青花系列在 500-1000 元价格带快速放量，推动清香型高端化进程；二是中高线光瓶酒赛道扩容，消费升级使光瓶酒从 "低端代名 词" 转变为品质消费载体，2024 年该赛道增速超 25%，成为区域酒企差异化竞争的战略窗口。 清香型白酒 "入口顺、醒酒快" 的特性，适配家庭聚餐、朋友小聚等高频场景，正在替代百元盒装酒的聚饮市场。区域酒企深耕本地多年积累的纯粮酿造 信任基础，使其在性价比竞争中具备天然优势 —— 无需承担一线品牌的品牌溢价，可将成本聚焦于品质提升，精准契合中高线光瓶酒的核心需求。 2、马太效应加剧的生存挤压 行业集中度提升使区域酒企面临 "上挤下压" 的双重压力：头部品牌方面，汾酒以近 400 亿元体量占据清香型市场 40% 份额，通过 "深度分销 + 品牌高举 高打" 持续下沉；浓香、酱酒品牌亦跨界渗透，茅台、五粮液通过子品 ...

中国食品安全网讯（记者 谭妮妮）当拥有6000年酿造史的清香汾酒，遇见追求个性、健康与体验的Z世代，会碰撞出怎样的火花？在国潮奔涌、新消费勃兴 的时代背景下，作为"国酒之源、清香之祖、文化之根"的汾酒正以一场深刻而系统的"年轻化"变革，回应着这一命题。其答案的核心，并非简单的包装更迭 或营销狂欢，而是以"品质坚守 "为不可动摇的基石，以"产品创新"为关键切口，最终通向"品牌价值与消费者共生"的可持续发展之路，为行业提供了一 个"守正创新"的范本。 2025汾酒全球经销商大会 历史基因的现代表达 汾酒"清蒸二次清、一清到底"的传统工艺，本就蕴含着对纯净酒体的极致追求。如今，这一基因被转化为一套贯穿全产业链的现代化食品安全管控体系。从 高粱、大麦、豌豆的产地生态管控，到酿造、储存、灌装的全流程数字化溯源，每一瓶走向年轻消费者的汾酒，都可实现"从田间到舌尖"的透明追溯。在汾 酒国家级技术中心，检测项目远超国标，与国际权威标准接轨，确保每一滴酒都经得起最苛刻的检验。 系统战略与情感共鸣 汾酒的年轻化，并非单点突破，而是一套从产品到文化、从渠道到传播的系统工程。其最终目标，是实现品牌与年轻一代的价值共生与情感共鸣。 在 ...

白酒行业遭遇逆周期，汾酒为何"特立独行"？ 近期飞天茅台市场销售价格跌破1499元官方指导价、茅台价格跌回十年前、"五粮液十年来首次降价"成了白酒行业的热门话题。 12月6日，继茅台价格波动后，五粮液调价的消息在行业内迅速发酵，自2026年起，第八代普五(52度、500ml)经销商开票价将由1019元下降至900元左 右，降幅接近12%。 据第一财经12月2日报道，山西汾酒集团党委书记、董事长袁清茂表示，白酒消费正在从传统的以政务和商务消费为支柱的增长模式，转向"悦人"与"悦 己"并存的新格局，后者也成为行业必须面对的新课题与新增长曲线。相较于行业中一些白酒巨头还在坚持走高端路线，袁清茂可以说给白酒行业"上了一 课"。 有业内人士指出，高端白酒的货币属性或正在消失，白酒行业整体低迷或成常态，各大酒企必须找到新的增长点才能应对业绩压力。 汾酒真的是茅台"老师傅"？ 如今世人只知道茅台是高端白酒的代表，却鲜有人知茅台源自汾酒。清代《汾州府志》明确记载"天下白酒出汾州。"汾酒与茅台的历史渊源，是中国白酒 发展史上一段"师承—演化—并立"的经典故事。二者虽分属清香与酱香两大香型，但茅台的酿造技艺最初正是源自汾酒，这一 ...

咱们中国更明显，12 月飞天茅台批价一度跌破 1499 元的指导价，虽然很快反弹到 1570 元，但全年一 路往下走的趋势摆得明明白白，经销商们都在忙着清库存，谁也不敢再囤货了。 全球酒市都在发生同一个变化：高端酒的面子消费彻底凉了。以前喝超高端威士忌、千元白酒是为了撑 场面，现在大家花钱都精打细算，没人愿意为虚高的价格买单了。 这背后其实是酒业 "三期叠加" 的大环境 —— 政策调整、消费转型、存量竞争凑一块儿，高端酒的泡沫 自然就撑不住了。 | | | | 2025前三季度烈酒进口数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 米别 | 讲口量 | 进口额 | 均价 | 量同比 | 额同比 | 均价 | | | (ケナ) | (ケア | (元/升) | | | 同比 | | 葡萄白兰地 | 1.373.96 | 284.975.95 | 207.41 | -44.45% -55.66% | | -20.18% | | 威士忌酒 | 2,662.64 | 235,007.27 | 88.26 | 33.34% | 3.19% | -22.61 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][10]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in consumer scenarios, with a stable price expectation for Moutai [1][3]. - The sector is entering a left-side layout phase, with high-quality companies expected to gain greater growth potential [2][10]. - The report highlights the differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcohol [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector experienced a cumulative decline of 1.52% this week, with A-shares down 1.63% and H-shares up 0.07% [1]. - The top five gainers in the food and beverage sector this week were Yanjinpuzi (5.11%), Huikaishan (4.85%), New Dairy (3.22%), Chenguang Biological (3.09%), and Anji Food (3.08%) [1]. 2. Alcohol Sector - In the liquor segment, the report recommends focusing on leading companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Yingjia Gongjiu, while also monitoring the reform pace of Wuliangye and Yanghe [2][10]. - The report notes that the current market is in a left-side layout phase, with positive signals expected from both demand and supply sides [10]. 3. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry is experiencing a sustained boom, with leading companies significantly outperforming the market [14]. - Recommendations include Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are accelerating their national and platform expansion [14]. 4. Food Sector - The snack segment is advised to focus on strong alpha stocks, particularly in the konjac snack category, where leading companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi show strong competitive advantages [11][12]. - The restaurant supply chain is showing signs of stabilization, with recommendations for leading companies like Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring [12]. 5. Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Nongfu Spring, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are rated as "Outperform the Market" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 and 2026 [4][10]. - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts for these companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4][15].

来源：问董秘 投资者提问： 董秘回答(五 粮 液SZ000858)： 尊敬的投资者，感谢您的建议！ 查看更多董秘问答>> 免责声明：本信息由新浪财经从公开信息中摘录，不构成任何投资建议；新浪财经不保证数据的准确 性，内容仅供参考。 同样的光瓶口粮酒，山西汾酒的玻汾担起了承载全国化、渠道下沉和吸纳消费降级的重任，而五粮液作 为战略补充的绵柔尖庄似乎更侧重于价格补位，满足心理洁癖，完全失去了防御作用。经此一役，贵司 是否考虑也给低端产品多一些政策倾斜，同时不要放弃进一步发力经典五粮液等超高端系列，不要单调 普五一枝花啊。老百姓其实很好满足，优质的口粮酒，只要好喝，自然有人买单，不像高端，附带着很 多其他目的和属性。 ...

酒行业丨市场观察 本周看点： -国内酒业整体"入冬"，突围之路仍不明朗； -这五年，酒业经历了什么？全景复盘"十四五"大事记； -宴席市场，能否成为白酒行业最后的"救命稻草"？ 行业环境 1.国内酒业整体"入冬"，突围之路仍不明朗 关键词：酒业入冬,产量下降,营收下滑,消费疲软,价格跳水 概要：国内酒业整体"入冬"，白酒和啤酒行业均面临严峻挑战。白酒产量从2016年的1358万吨 降至629万吨，啤酒产量从2013年的5080万吨降至3312万吨。白酒行业出现"量价双杀"，经销 商亏本抛售，价格倒挂严重，龙头企业如贵州茅台和五粮液业绩增速大幅下滑。啤酒行业同样 疲软，线下消费场景减少，吨价承压，青岛啤酒等头部企业销量增长乏力。为应对困境，酒企 转向低度白酒和光瓶酒以吸引年轻人，啤酒厂商则推出无醇、低糖等"轻型酒精"饮品。尽管行 业整体低迷，但长期增长潜力仍存，创新和细分市场成为破局关键。 2.白酒回春，价格集体涨疯了！ 关键词：白酒涨价,电商平台,价格倒挂,库存高企,稳价去库存 概要：双十一期间，白酒成为电商平台低价引流工具，但半个月后行业掀起集体涨价潮，茅 台、洋河等核心单品接连提价。这轮涨价从中端酒开始， ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with traditional high-end sales strategies failing as consumer preferences shift towards more affordable options. The industry must adapt to these changes to survive and thrive in the current market environment [2][12][24]. Industry Overview - The white liquor industry has seen a continuous decline in sales, with overall production dropping by 9.9% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, marking the eighth consecutive year of decline [8]. - Major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are facing unprecedented challenges, with Moutai's revenue growth slowing to 0.35% and Wuliangye experiencing a 10.26% decline in revenue, the first negative growth in a decade [5][6]. Company Performance - Moutai reported a revenue of 398.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 192.24 billion yuan, both at near-record lows [5]. - Wuliangye's revenue fell to 81.74 billion yuan, a staggering 52.66% decrease, with net profit down 65.62% [7]. - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 reported a decline in net profit, with some like Shede Liquor experiencing a 63.18% drop [7]. Consumer Trends - There is a notable shift in consumer demographics, with younger consumers increasingly turning away from traditional high-end liquor brands. This trend is reflected in the rising inventory levels of Moutai, which saw a 27% increase year-on-year [4]. - The perception of white liquor as a luxury item is changing, with consumers now prioritizing affordability and quality over brand prestige [12][23]. Strategic Shifts - Shanxi Fenjiu has managed to grow its revenue by 5% in the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to its focus on understanding consumer needs and offering products at more accessible price points [9][20]. - The company has successfully positioned its 50 yuan Fenjiu as a core product, appealing to a broader market, including younger consumers who are using it in cocktails [20]. Market Adaptation - The industry is beginning to recognize the need for a strategic pivot towards lower-priced products, with some companies launching new lines targeting the under-100 yuan market [22]. - This shift indicates a growing understanding that consumer demand is not necessarily for the most expensive products, but rather for those that meet their expectations of quality and affordability [23].