哈喽，大家好，小玖今天要和大家聊聊白酒圈的大新闻：五粮液2025年第三季度的财报简直是"平地惊雷"，营收和净利润直接断崖式下跌，连多年的"茅五 领跑"格局都被打破了。 10月30日晚间，五粮液（000858.SZ）披露的三季度报告显示，单季度营收仅81.74亿元，同比下滑52.66%；归母净利润20.19亿元，同比骤降65.62%。 更让人意外的是，山西汾酒同期营收和净利润双双反超五粮液，结束了白酒行业长期由茅台、五粮液主导的双雄格局。 这组数据不仅让投资者哗然，更暴露了高端白酒行业深层的渠道危机。 价格倒挂成"元凶"，线上低价倒逼经销商承压 小玖梳理数据时发现，五粮液业绩暴跌的核心症结的是持续发酵的价格倒挂问题。 以核心大单品八代普五为例，目前线下经销商批价维持在850-900元/瓶，但电商平台的"百亿补贴"频道直接把价格压到640元左右，价差最高可达260元。 这种悬殊的价格差，让消费者宁愿冒着买到假酒的风险，也要选择线上渠道。更严峻的是，电商低价背后还暗藏假货隐患。 五粮液近期鉴定数据显示，线上平台购买的148瓶产品中，假冒产品占比达12%，其中77%的假货来自电商"百亿补贴"专区。 | | 本报告期 ...

扎堆布局 北京商报记者在走访北京部分终端市场发现，目前光瓶酒产品主要集中于牛栏山、红星、汾酒以及沱牌等品牌。值得注意的是，在众多产品中，50元价格带 受到企业热宠。在位于宣武门附近的沃尔玛店内，在陈列的18款光瓶酒中，约有30%定价在40元以下，50%定价在40—100元价格带，而仅有20%定价超百 元。 日 R R r 及 70 xt st 17 an az 1 B 3750 146 00 173.00 53 80 ur > ■ n a III ICE JITO Anger Under Bell Bron Comment Co LISAND C 净宜昌/日期 Underland 图价有哪公司出品 Comments and commenders of illy 山西杏花村汾酒| 股份有限公 ur IST ITTING 北京酒类流通行业协会秘书长程万松表示，两个爆款产品（玻汾和绿瓶西凤）销售势头良好，证明这一价格带单品足以支撑企业战略基本盘的稳定，是企业 业绩压舱石。同时，在高端市场受挫、自饮市场崛起的当下，50元左右及以上产品市场客观存在，某种程度是消费者"刚需"，促使50元以上光瓶酒的供应。 当众多在售光瓶 ...

长江证券研报指出，山西汾酒2025年前三季度归母净利润114.05亿元，同比增长0.48%，Q3归母净利润 28.99亿元，同比下滑1.38%。公司长期发展逻辑稳固，中长期看，公司玻汾青花双轮动格局成型，玻汾 大单品优势不变，青花20在次高端逐步建立优势，青花30复兴版发展模式回归良性。同时，公司全国化 稳步推进。随着未来行业需求逐步修复，汾酒长期发展逻辑有望延续。预计2025/2026年EPS为 10.09/10.93元，当前股价对应PE分别为20/18倍，维持"买入"评级。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨山西汾酒（600809.SH） [Table_Title] 山西汾酒 2025 年三季报点评：收入稳健增长， 凸显经营韧性 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 山西汾酒发布 2025年三季报：公司 2025年前三季度营业总收入 329.24亿元，同比增长 5.00%； 归母净利润 114.05 亿元，同比增长 0.48%，扣非净利润 114.11 亿元，同比增长 0.53%。公司 2025Q3 营业总收入 89.60 亿元，同比增长 4.05%；归母净利润 28.99 亿元，同比下滑 1.38%， 扣非净利润 28.95 亿元，同比下滑 1.61%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Title 山西汾酒 2025 2] 年三季报点评：收入稳健增长， 凸显经营韧性 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 山西汾酒发布 2025 年三季报：公司 2025 年前三季度营业总收入 329.24 亿元，同比增长 5.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1499 yuan, raising concerns about the future of the liquor industry, but it is important to recognize that Moutai is just one brand in a vast industry worth nearly 800 billion yuan, and its price fluctuations do not solely dictate the health of the entire sector [3][4][6]. Industry Impact - The drop in Feitian Moutai's price is attributed to e-commerce promotions and market changes, leading to a potential "domino effect" that could pressure other products in the industry [4][6]. - The offline retail price of Feitian Moutai remains around 1800 yuan, close to the breakeven point for distributors, indicating that further price declines could lead to negative operating conditions for them [4][6]. - The liquor industry is experiencing a cooling trend, with the third quarter showing poor performance, which may continue to affect market dynamics [6][9]. Strategic Adjustments - Moutai has implemented measures to manage market prices, aiming to maintain a price above 1800 yuan, despite the recent price drop [7][9]. - The company has reduced production for 2024, with an expected output of approximately 56,300 tons, marking a decrease of about 900 tons year-on-year, indicating a strategic shift in response to market conditions [9]. Consumer Trends - The consumer base is evolving, with younger generations (80s and 90s) becoming the main consumers, leading to a diversification of demand beyond just high-priced products [10][11]. - Other brands, such as Boliang and Shuijingfang, are gaining popularity due to their affordability and quality, suggesting that price is not the only factor influencing consumer choices [15][18]. Market Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to undergo significant changes as it adapts to new consumer preferences and market conditions, with a focus on quality and cultural value rather than just price [10][11]. - Despite the challenges posed by price fluctuations of high-end products like Feitian Moutai, the overall liquor market remains resilient, with opportunities for growth in various segments [18][19].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry has entered a deep adjustment phase characterized by policy regulation, consumption transformation, and stock competition, leading to an overall slowdown in growth and increased brand differentiation [1][3] - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2025 Q3 report shows a revenue of 32.924 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, marking the lowest growth rate since 2016, with a decline in net profit for the first time since 2015 [1][3] Industry Overview - The overall revenue growth of the liquor industry has slowed to 8%, with Fenjiu's growth lagging behind industry leaders like Moutai and Wuliangye, which are experiencing double-digit growth [3] - The industry is undergoing a "bubble-popping" phase after years of rapid expansion, transitioning into a stock competition era influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy guidance [3] Company Performance - Fenjiu's revenue has increased, but profitability remains a concern, as marketing and channel costs have significantly eroded profits despite a revenue exceeding 30 billion yuan [4][5] - The company heavily relies on its home market in Shanxi, which contributes over 45% of its revenue, and struggles to penetrate markets outside Shanxi, where its market share is below 5% in East and South China [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Fenjiu faces intense competition from both high-end giants like Moutai and Wuliangye, which dominate the premium price segment, and differentiated brands like Yanghe and Shui Jing Fang, which have strong market positions and innovative marketing strategies [6][7] - The rise of sauce-flavored liquor is also impacting Fenjiu, increasing competition and customer acquisition costs across the entire liquor category [7] Management and Strategy - Fenjiu's management team, while experienced, has been slow to adapt to new industry trends such as national expansion, digitalization, and appealing to younger consumers [8][10] - The company has made limited progress in its "Smart Fenjiu" strategy and lacks effective communication strategies to engage younger demographics compared to competitors [10] Recommendations for Improvement - Fenjiu needs to restructure its product offerings to achieve both high-end breakthroughs and maintain a strong base in the mass market [11] - Accelerating national expansion efforts and improving market penetration in key regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta is crucial [11] - The company should implement market-oriented reforms in its organizational structure to attract talent with backgrounds in internet, consumer goods, and capital operations [11][12] Conclusion - The slowdown in Fenjiu's growth reflects a complex interplay of brand value, market structure, and cultural relevance, necessitating a shift from scale competition to value competition [12][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated stable operations with a focus on increasing consumer-end investments during peak seasons, resulting in reasonable prepayments [3] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the strong performance of the Qinghua series and the essential demand for the Glass Fen liquor, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [4] - The company has optimized its distribution channels, maintaining a stable dealer network while adapting to the rapid development of e-commerce and direct sales [5] - The gross margin has slightly increased, while the net profit margin has been impacted by rising tax rates, indicating a need for refined management practices [6] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts slightly downward for the years 2025 to 2027, while maintaining a "Buy" rating based on its competitive advantages and market position [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 32.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.00%, and a net profit of 11.405 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.48% [2] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 8.960 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, and a net profit of 2.899 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 74.63%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.33 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 37.091 billion, 37.925 billion, and 38.986 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates revised to 12.009 billion, 12.380 billion, and 12.816 billion yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, while the light bottle liquor segment is experiencing strong growth, with products like Guo Fen from Shanxi Fenjiu showing over 10% sales growth in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a shift in consumer preferences from "face consumption" to "substance consumption" [1][2]. Industry Overview - The market size of light bottle liquor has grown from 35.2 billion yuan in 2013 to over 150 billion yuan in 2024, with projections to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.8% from 2013 to 2021 [1][2]. Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies showing growth, with a reported revenue of 32.924 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, a 5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.405 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.48% [1][2]. Product Contribution - The Guo Fen product line has been a significant contributor to Shanxi Fenjiu's growth, with analysts noting that it achieved over 10% growth in the first three quarters, contrasting with the declining sales of many other products [2][3]. Competitive Landscape - The rapid growth of the light bottle liquor market has attracted numerous companies to increase their investments in this segment, with brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao launching new products aimed at capturing market share [3][4]. Market Dynamics - Despite overall growth in the light bottle liquor market, there is increasing differentiation among brands. Traditional brands like Niulanshan are facing significant challenges, with reported revenue declines of nearly 20% year-on-year [4][5]. Consumer Trends - The shift in consumer behavior is evident, with younger consumers moving from luxury packaging to a focus on quality and cost-effectiveness, prompting companies to adapt their strategies to meet the demand for high-value products [3][6]. Future Outlook - The light bottle liquor segment is expected to continue expanding, but competition is intensifying, leading to a clear differentiation among brands. Companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions are likely to thrive [6][7].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is actively releasing pressure on financial statements, with the industry gradually bottoming out. The frozen food sector is witnessing a turning point, while the soft drink and snack sectors maintain high levels of prosperity [3][4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The liquor sector's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 319.23 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.76%, with net profit down 6.85% to CNY 122.67 billion. In Q3 alone, revenue fell 18.38% to CNY 78.48 billion, and net profit dropped 22.00% to CNY 28.09 billion [14][28] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai showed stable growth, while others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao faced significant declines. Moutai's revenue grew by 9.28% year-on-year, while Wuliangye's fell by 10.26% [17][19] - The second-tier liquor brands, such as Fenjiu, showed resilience with a revenue increase of 5.00%, while others like Shui Jing Fang and Shede experienced declines [26][22] 2. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector saw significant growth, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage reporting a 34.13% increase in revenue year-on-year. The energy drink segment, particularly, showed robust growth [30][31] - The introduction of new flavors and products, such as Dongpeng's summer limited edition, contributed to the sustained high growth rates in this sector [30] 3. Dairy Products - The dairy sector, led by Yili, maintained stable performance despite high base effects, with significant growth in milk powder and cold drink products. New Dairy's low-temperature products continued to show double-digit growth [4][31] 4. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry is experiencing a turning point, with companies noting that the price war has peaked. The focus is shifting towards rational competition and value [7][30] 5. Snacks - The snack sector is undergoing strategic adjustments, with member stores and instant retail becoming key growth channels. The overall consumption environment remains weak, but the snack sector is adapting with targeted strategies [7][30]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is declining, with only a few companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu showing slight growth, while the majority face significant revenue drops [1][2]. Industry Overview - In the third quarter of 2025, 20 listed baijiu companies reported their earnings, with only Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving minor increases, while 18 others experienced varying degrees of decline [1]. - The baijiu industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period due to changing consumer environments and high channel inventories [1]. Market Trends - Despite the overall downturn, the light bottle liquor segment is experiencing robust growth, with products like Shanxi Fenjiu's Guo Fen showing over 10% sales growth in the first three quarters [1][5]. - The market size of light bottle liquor has expanded from 35.2 billion yuan in 2013 to over 150 billion yuan in 2024, with projections indicating it will surpass 200 billion yuan in 2025 [1][5]. Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 32.924 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 11.405 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.48% [2]. - The growth in Shanxi Fenjiu's performance is attributed to its light bottle products, particularly Guo Fen, which has shown significant sales increases [2][5]. Competitive Landscape - The rapid growth of the light bottle liquor market has prompted many liquor companies to increase their investments in this segment, with notable entries from Yanghe and other brands [6][8]. - Analysts indicate a shift in consumer preferences from luxury packaging to quality and cost-effectiveness, driving the growth of light bottle liquor [8]. Market Challenges - Despite the overall growth in the light bottle liquor market, there is increasing differentiation among brands, with traditional brands like Niulanshan facing severe challenges [10][12]. - Niulanshan's revenue dropped by 19.79% to 5.869 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a net profit decline of 79.85% [10][12]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with many companies facing challenges due to changing consumer habits and market dynamics [13][16].