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工业硅、多晶硅日评:多头情绪旺盛,价格走势坚挺-20250728
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 02:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, considering the reduction in supply after offsetting increases and decreases and the complex demand situation, the industrial silicon futures and spot prices have resonated and rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a firm short - term trend, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production of silicon enterprises [1]. - For polysilicon, due to the expected increase in production on the supply side and weak demand in the terminal market, although the polysilicon market has been rising since the end of June, it is expected to maintain high - level consolidation in the short term, and chasing long positions carries high risks, so cautious operation is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,850 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 10,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.36% to 9,725 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions remained mostly unchanged [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon increased by 1.11%, 1.09%, 2.30%, and 1.14% respectively, while the closing price of the futures main contract fell 5.10% to 51,025 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm silicon wafers remained unchanged [1]. - **Battery Cell**: The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained unchanged at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - **Component**: The prices of single - crystal PERC components (single - sided and double - sided) of different specifications remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Industry News - The National Energy Administration plans to achieve full - coverage of green certificate issuance for distributed renewable energy power generation projects in Zhejiang, Henan, and Guangdong by the end of December 2025, and green certificates will be issued according to the use of electricity [1]. - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, with solar power and wind power installed capacities increasing by 54.2% and 22.7% respectively year - on - year. From January to June, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21 million kilowatts, with 14.36 million kilowatts added in June, a year - on - year decrease of 38.45% [1]. 3.3 Investment Strategies - **Industrial Silicon**: On the supply side, northern large - scale factories are reducing production, and the southwest region is gradually resuming production, with a possible decrease in overall supply. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, and organic silicon enterprises are strongly willing to reduce production to support prices. It is expected to maintain a firm short - term trend, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of silicon enterprises [1]. - **Polysilicon**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected production. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is weak, but the trading atmosphere has improved. It is expected to maintain high - level consolidation in the short term, and chasing long positions carries high risks [1].