Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Outperform" [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a profit turnaround in Q3 2025, with a single-quarter revenue of 1.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10%, and a net profit of 25 million yuan, indicating a successful shift from loss to profit [7]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.464 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 272 million yuan, down 34.5% year-on-year [7]. - The company has streamlined its product line, which has led to revenue pressure but improved profitability through reduced promotional expenses [7]. - The Q4 outlook is optimistic due to strong sales during the Double 11 shopping festival, with the main brand ranking 8th in beauty sales on Tmall [7]. - The company is focusing on brand building and member operations, with a strategy to reduce promotional rights and streamline product offerings [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 5.354 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 6.7% [2]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 402 million yuan, a decrease of 20.2% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 74.9% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 6.5% [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting 5.354 billion yuan, 5.804 billion yuan, and 6.467 billion yuan respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a 3.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, reaching 5.74 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.5% to 500 million yuan [5][11] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in performance, with revenue dropping by 14% year-on-year to 950 million yuan and net profit down 84% to 28.34 million yuan [6][11] - The company is undergoing business transformation and optimization, focusing on brand operation and member management to strengthen its market position [11] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.74 billion yuan, with a net profit of 500 million yuan, and a basic EPS of 1.20 yuan [5][11] - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.7%, slightly down from the previous year, but has shown signs of recovery since Q4 2024 [8][11] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 690 million yuan, reflecting a 13.8% increase year-on-year [10] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, online channels contributed 68% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while offline channels accounted for 22% with a decline of 10.7% [7][11] - The skincare segment remains the largest contributor to revenue at 84%, although it saw a slight decline of 1.4% year-on-year [7][11] Cost and Expense Analysis - The company’s expense ratio increased by 4.3 percentage points to 64% in 2024, driven by higher sales and management expenses [8][11] - The sales expense ratio rose to 50%, primarily due to increased marketing and promotional activities [9][11] Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects net profits of 690 million yuan, 830 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.62 yuan, 1.97 yuan, and 2.36 yuan [11][12]