Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, gold has experienced two rounds of price increases driven by various economic and political factors, including concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and global sovereign debt crises [4]. Group 1: First Round of Gold Price Increase - The first round of price increase occurred from early January to mid-April, triggered by panic buying due to "gold tariffs" and accelerated by Trump's policies impacting U.S. dollar credibility [4]. - From late April to mid-August, the market entered a "TACO" trading phase, where the impact of Trump's policies on dollar credibility showed temporary marginal convergence, alongside a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, leading to price stabilization [4]. Group 2: Second Round of Gold Price Increase - The second round began in late August, initiated by a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting, which sparked a rate cut trading environment [4]. - This round was further accelerated by the European debt crisis and Trump's interference with the independence of the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 3: New Variables Supporting Gold Price Increase - Variable 1: The U.S. government shutdown, which exceeded historical averages, raised concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and debt credibility, increasing political risk premiums and demand for gold as a safe haven [5]. - Variable 2: Political changes in Europe and Japan weakened confidence in sovereign currencies, with Japan's new leadership supporting fiscal and monetary easing, and France facing setbacks in fiscal reform, both contributing to increased gold attractiveness [5]. - Variable 3: Significant inflows into gold ETFs from the U.S. and Europe indicate a shift in risk appetite from central banks to private investors, driven by lower opportunity costs of holding gold and rising geopolitical tensions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The gold sector has shown strong performance, with significant price increases in various gold companies, driven by a combination of long-term and short-term factors supporting gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices continued to rise during the National Day holiday, supported by a weakening of confidence in sovereign currencies and a global sovereign debt crisis [1] - Companies such as Sichuan Gold and Shandong Gold reached their daily price limits, while Pengxin Resources increased by over 9%, and both Zhongjin Gold and Zijin Mining rose by over 8% [1] Group 2: Supporting Factors - Three new variables have emerged that support the rise in gold prices: the U.S. government shutdown, political changes in Europe and Japan that weaken confidence in sovereign currencies, and a significant inflow of funds into gold ETFs from the U.S. and Europe, indicating a shift in risk aversion from central banks to private investors [1] - The long-term support system for gold remains solid, driven by the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, ongoing gold purchases by central banks, and structural supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term bullish trend for gold is expected to continue over the next 2-3 years, with no fundamental changes anticipated in the support system [1] - Short-term factors such as the continuation of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, the normalization of geopolitical risks, and sustained investment demand are likely to keep gold prices at high levels with a strong upward bias [1]