Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continue to show strong bullish momentum, recently touching $4060, with a slight pullback to the psychological level of $4000 being quickly absorbed by buying interest [1][3]. Fundamental Drivers - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown and lack of clear agreements on the debt ceiling and spending limits have raised investor concerns, increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a focus on growth risks rather than inflation pressures, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, continue to attract global attention, further supporting gold demand [3]. - Despite record high gold prices, central banks worldwide are still increasing their gold reserves, indicating strong structural demand for gold in the long term [4]. - Persistently low bond yields make non-yielding gold a valuable store of value [5]. Technical Drivers - Gold maintains a strong bullish market structure, supported by stability above the $4000 psychological level and a series of higher highs and lows, indicating a continuation of the bullish rebound [6]. - Recent resistance levels at $4048-$4053 have limited upward attempts, with bulls needing to break through this resistance for further gains [7]. - The 5-day moving average on the 4-hour chart is at $4032, showing bullish momentum, while levels below $4018-$4008 may present additional buying opportunities [8]. - Daily and monthly RSI readings are at 90, indicating overbought conditions, suggesting caution regarding potential price corrections from these levels or the next bullish target of $4115 [9]. Overall Outlook - Gold retains a strong bullish momentum aligned with the primary trend, but the likelihood of a price correction is increasing, potentially around $4115 or sooner [10]. - As long as the sequence of higher highs and lows remains intact, the bullish rebound will continue [11].

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, gold has experienced two rounds of price increases driven by various economic and political factors, including concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and global sovereign debt crises [4]. Group 1: First Round of Gold Price Increase - The first round of price increase occurred from early January to mid-April, triggered by panic buying due to "gold tariffs" and accelerated by Trump's policies impacting U.S. dollar credibility [4]. - From late April to mid-August, the market entered a "TACO" trading phase, where the impact of Trump's policies on dollar credibility showed temporary marginal convergence, alongside a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, leading to price stabilization [4]. Group 2: Second Round of Gold Price Increase - The second round began in late August, initiated by a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting, which sparked a rate cut trading environment [4]. - This round was further accelerated by the European debt crisis and Trump's interference with the independence of the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 3: New Variables Supporting Gold Price Increase - Variable 1: The U.S. government shutdown, which exceeded historical averages, raised concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and debt credibility, increasing political risk premiums and demand for gold as a safe haven [5]. - Variable 2: Political changes in Europe and Japan weakened confidence in sovereign currencies, with Japan's new leadership supporting fiscal and monetary easing, and France facing setbacks in fiscal reform, both contributing to increased gold attractiveness [5]. - Variable 3: Significant inflows into gold ETFs from the U.S. and Europe indicate a shift in risk appetite from central banks to private investors, driven by lower opportunity costs of holding gold and rising geopolitical tensions [6].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have recently reached a historic high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by increased global demand for safe-haven assets and declining confidence in the U.S. dollar [1][2]. Group 1: International Gold Price Trends - On October 7, the most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 reached a peak of $4,014.60 per ounce, marking a significant increase of approximately 50% year-to-date, making gold one of the best-performing major assets globally [1]. - Analysts suggest that the prevailing "fear of missing out" sentiment among investors is stronger than profit-taking, contributing to the continued upward pressure on gold prices despite being overbought [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Surge - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including U.S. government shutdowns, political instability in France, economic concerns in Japan, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, all of which have heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The weakening U.S. dollar and increased fiscal uncertainty in the U.S. have significantly enhanced gold's appeal as a hedge against risk [3]. - Recent monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve, including potential interest rate cuts, have diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, further supporting gold prices [4]. - Central banks globally have resumed large-scale purchases of gold, with a reported net increase of 15 tons in August, and significant inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have risen by 17% year-to-date [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Looking ahead, if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and geopolitical tensions persist, gold prices may continue to rise. However, some analysts caution that the market may need to prepare for short-term corrections [5]. - Several investment banks predict that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,800 and $4,100 per ounce for the remainder of the year, with some suggesting a potential pullback to as low as $3,525 [5]. - Long-term forecasts remain bullish, with UBS projecting gold could reach $4,200, and Citigroup suggesting a challenge to the $5,000 mark if the Fed continues to cut rates into 2026 [5][6].

【#国际金价今年累计上涨约50%#】#金价近三年走势图#国际金价日前再创新高，突破每盎司4000美元 历史关口，引发市场广泛关注。黄金究竟表现如何？国际金价为何大幅飙升？面对诸多不确定因素，# 金价#涨势能否持续？「国际金价走势如何」7日，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12 月黄金期价突破每盎司4000美元，一度创下每盎司4014.60美元的历史新高。今年以来，国际金价已累 计上涨约50%，黄金成为全球表现最亮眼的主要资产之一。分析人士认为，黄金市场"害怕错过"情绪比 获利回吐情绪更为强烈，导致黄金虽然已经超买，但仍有足够买盘推高价格。金价连创新高，反映出全 球避险需求上升和美元信用度下降的双重信号。桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧7日在美国康涅狄格州格林尼 治经济论坛上表示，投资者应将"约15%的资产配置在黄金中"。他认为，债务工具"已不再是有效的财 富储藏手段"，黄金则是"当投资组合其他部分下跌时表现最佳的资产"。高盛集团6日发布的最新报告将 2026年12月黄金价格预期从每盎司4300美元上调至4900美元，理由是"央行增持与私人部门分散化需求 强劲"。报告预测，未来两年各国央行年度购金量将分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market has seen a significant increase in prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic concerns, with predictions of further price rises in the coming years [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - On October 7, 2023, the most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 rose by $28.2, closing at $4004.8 per ounce, marking a 0.71% increase [1] - On October 6, gold prices surpassed $4000 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $4014.60, and maintained above the $4000 level at the close on October 7 [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include the U.S. government shutdown, political instability in France, economic concerns in Japan and Argentina, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, all of which have increased market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 3: Forecasts and Predictions - Goldman Sachs raised its price forecast for gold for December 2026 from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, and anticipates that central banks will purchase an average of 80 tons of gold in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026 [1] - Emerging market central banks are expected to continue shifting their reserves from U.S. dollars to gold [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Currently, gold prices are approximately 21% above the 200-day moving average, 70% above the 200-week moving average, and 140% above the 200-month moving average, indicating a significant overbought condition and potential weakening of short-term upward momentum [1] Group 5: Silver Market Performance - On the same day, silver futures for December delivery fell by $0.793, closing at $47.655 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.64% [1]

Core Insights - The current excessive issuance of U.S. government bonds is impacting the global financial landscape, highlighting the advantages of gold as a credit asset, with gold prices nearing $3,800 per ounce [1] - The evolution of gold prices and its future trajectory are critical topics of discussion, as presented by Professor Sheng Songcheng at the "2025 Global Asset Management Center Evaluation Index Release and CLF50 Autumn Conference" [1] Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - Gold has historically been recognized for its unique attributes, including beauty, durability, and scarcity, which have established its significant value in the monetary system [4] - The transition from a gold-backed currency system to fiat currency has occurred in two key phases: the classical gold standard and the Bretton Woods system, which linked currencies to gold at a fixed rate [5][7] - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system marked the shift to a floating exchange rate system, where gold prices are determined by market supply and demand [5] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Gold's monetary attributes are weakening due to three evolving characteristics: the expansion of global money supply, increasing demand in various industries, and enhanced liquidity as a financial asset through instruments like ETFs [7] - Global gold investment demand rose from 991 tons in 2021 to 1,182 tons in 2024, with gold ETFs showing a significant recovery in demand [7][8] - Central banks, particularly in developing countries, are increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves growing from approximately 64 million ounces in 2022 to about 74 million ounces currently [10] Group 3: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Geopolitical risks are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with historical instances showing that military conflicts often lead to increased inflation and higher gold prices [11][15] - The inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices is evident, with the dollar index declining from 108.6 in January to 98.2 in August, while gold prices increased by 23.9% during the same period [12][14] - The global low-interest-rate environment is shifting asset allocation towards gold, as traditional fixed-income assets become less attractive [16] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will largely depend on geopolitical developments and the sustainability of U.S. debt, with two potential scenarios outlined: stabilization or further escalation of tensions [25] - The current U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has surged to 124%, necessitating significant interest payments, which raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and the potential impact on gold prices [22] - A recent survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, reflecting a growing confidence in gold amid economic uncertainties [17]

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, and global economic uncertainties, has strengthened the demand for gold as a safe haven, providing support for gold prices [1][3] Price Movements - Gold prices faced resistance after reaching $3779, subsequently experiencing a decline to $3717 before rebounding to $3736 [1] - On Thursday, gold opened at $3751, faced resistance, and then stabilized around $3729 before rising to $3761, currently trading at $3753 [1][3] Technical Analysis - The overall trend for gold remains upward despite recent fluctuations, with key support levels at $3750 and $3730, and resistance levels at $3779 and $3791 [3] - Short-term technical indicators show that the bullish sentiment continues to dominate, although there are signs of potential adjustments [3] Market Sentiment - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance regarding inflation and employment risks has heightened market caution, impacting gold's upward momentum [1][3] - Recent geopolitical developments, including peace proposals and tariff agreements, have reduced market risk aversion, contributing to gold's price adjustments [1]

从下行视角来看，3700美元已然成为即时的有效支撑位。自金价突破3703美元关口以来，该价位的战略 地位发生转变，跃升为重要的枢纽点。聚焦4小时图表，21周期简单移动平均线（SMA）于3673美元附 近形成下一层级的支撑屏障；而更为坚实的支撑则出现在3630美元一带，此地既是前期整理区间的底部 所在，又因100周期简单移动平均线（位于3611美元）的加持而得到进一步强化。 着眼未来走势，本周一美国并无重磅经济数据出炉，不过市场目光将齐刷刷地投向当晚多位美联储官员 的公开讲话。届时，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯、圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨莱姆、里士满联储 主席托马斯·巴尔金、克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克以及美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰等重量级人物将相继发 声。投资者势必会逐字剖析他们的言辞，从中捕捉政策制定者在上周谨慎降息之后，对于经济前景动态 变化的研判线索。 摘要现货黄金周一（9月22日）日K收涨。现货黄金持续展现出强劲的上涨势头，已然实现了连续第六 周的攀升。这一显著行情的背后，主要得益于美联储所释放的鸽派预期以及大量避险资金的踊跃流入， 二者共同作用使得黄金的需求始终维持在高位。尤为引人注目的是，在交易过程 ...

转自：新华财经 虽然上述官员表态与上周五美联储理事米兰的宽松态度形成鲜明对比。不过，似乎并没有改变市场对美联储进一步宽松的预期。在此背景下，资金仍选择 涌入黄金市场。 最新数据显示，截至9月22日，全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量突破了1000吨的水平，为2022年8月以来首次。 与此同时，俄乌冲突进展的不确定性，依旧支持对黄金的避险需求。加之全球央行仍在继续增持黄金，市场人士普遍认为黄金的历史性突破并非短期现 象，金价的强势或有望维持。 此外，银价的快速补涨，也给金价带来额外助力。当天亚洲时段早盘，国际银价率先拉升并刷新十四年高位。在全球白银市场预计将出现连续第五年供需 缺口、金银比价仍高达86的背景下，市场对白银的补涨预期强烈。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格上涨95美分，收于每盎司44.315美元，涨幅为2.19%。 编辑：张瑶 新华财经北京9月23日电（吴郑思）周一（9月22日），国际金价再度飙升并创下历史新高，国际银价也把逾十四年高位刷新至44美元／盎司上方。 当天，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价上涨61.8美元，收于每盎司3781.2 ...

相关分析指出，当前整体市场情绪仍为黄金提供强劲支撑。美国国债收益率低迷、美元整体走弱，叠加 地缘政治风险持续存在，均强化了黄金的避险需求，使其在接近历史高点的位置保持有利态势，且仍有 延续上行趋势的空间。 9月15日，美国经济数据持续疲软，特朗普施压降息引发市场美联储独立性担忧，叠加地缘政治紧张局 势升级，市场避险情绪升温，推动金价持续走强，COMEX黄金期货价格一举突破前期高位触及3724.9 美元，尾盘小幅回落，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.90%报3719.50美元/盎司。截至亚市收盘，黄金 ETF华夏(518850)跌0.24%，黄金股ETF(159562)跌1.26%。 消息面上，特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文表示，"太迟先生"美联储主席鲍威尔必须立即降息， 而且幅度必须比他预想的更大。美国8月失业率上升至4.3%，创近4年来新高，美国9月纽约联储制造业 指数急剧下降21个点，至-8.7，远低于市场预期的5。就业及经济数据恶化，强化了市场对美联储降息 的预期。 ...