金价突破4100美元，这次推动它上涨的力量，可能和很多人想的不太一样。 不是"中国大妈"，也不是普通投资者，真正的"大买家"是各国央行。 2025年以 来，全球央行的黄金净购买量预计将分别达到平均80吨和70吨，这种体量的购买是个人投资者难以企及的。 东亚波动与日元的连锁反应 市场立刻对东亚的紧张局势做出了反应，一个明显的表现是日元快速贬值，美元对日元汇率一度突破157关口。 这意味着有大量资金正在撤离日本。 市场普遍预期，如果日元继续下跌，跌破160这一关键心理关口，日本央行将大概率入场干预汇市。 干预方式通常是大量抛售其外汇储备中的美元和美债， 同时买入日元来支撑汇率。 这个行动本身会产生连锁反应：日本央行大量抛售美债和美元会导致美元指数走弱，而美元走弱则会推动以美元计价的黄金价格上涨。 回顾历史，每次日 本央行大规模干预汇市时，黄金都曾出现单日大涨行情。 俄乌谈判再陷僵局 在俄乌局势方面，期待中的和平似乎再次变得遥远。 乌克兰总统办公室近期表态非常直白，声称之前特朗普推动的那个包含28项条款的和平协议现在已经 不作数了。 不寻常的是，这次黄金的强势上涨，居然发生在美元同样走强的背景下。 这彻底打破了以往 ...

11:06 分析认为，政府停摆结束及全球贸易紧张局势缓和降低了黄金的避险需求。美元指数延续涨势，连续第二日走强，施压金价。与此同时，美联储降息预期已 大幅降温。根据芝商所美联储观察工具，12月降息概率已从一个月前的94%骤降至44%。 美联储副主席Philip Jefferson周一发表讲话称，通胀上行风险可能已经下降，而劳动力市场的下行风险则相对增加。美联储理事沃勒表示，支持在美联储12 月会议上再次降息，原因是他对劳动力市场以及招聘大幅放缓感到担忧。 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间: 2025-11- 1,060 1.040 1.020 1,000 980 960 2025-09-24 2025-10-09 2025-10-27 2025-11- EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 截至11月17日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1041.43吨，较前一个交易日减少2.57吨。11月17日，现货黄金延续上周五的跌势，盘中一度 跌至4000美元/盎司关口附近，临近尾盘有所回升，最终收于4045.50美元/盎司，跌39.30美元或0.96%。随着金价连续两个交易日回落，黄金ETF持仓量 ...

我们觉得黄金是"未完待续"。但是我觉得明年大家也不要期待黄金涨得会比今年还要高。这个可能是比较现实的。 我们可以看一下黄金过往的走势，有一张图是从1968年到2025年，可以非常明显的看到金价跟美元的走势是一个反向关系。当然中间偶尔有一两年它可能 也是成正向的关系，但是大体上来说还是成反向的关系。这两年黄金虽然和美元依然是一个反向关系，但是有个很有意思的现象，就是美元并没有出现大 幅下跌的情况下，黄金上涨的斜率非常高。所以，这里边一定发生了一些和以前不一样的地方。 我们认为这背后应该是"去美元化"在推动，"去美元化"执行的最显著的是谁？就是各国的央妈。比如我们中国的央行也在继续增持，尤其是23年开始，各 国央行累计的黄金储备开始比22年有一个相对比较显著的上涨。24年比23年有显著的上涨，25年又比24年有更显著的上涨。所以这几年各国央行在增持黄 金这件事情上，都还蛮一致的。到9月底的时候，根据官方披露的数据，我们的黄金储备是7402万盎司，美元计价的话是2972.09亿美元，目前我国的外汇 储备是3.3万亿美元，可以看出，黄金的占比还不到10%，四舍五入就按10%算。所以我们央妈对黄金的资产配置在它的外储占 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a short-term pullback in gold prices, the long-term upward trend remains intact due to gold's strong safe-haven asset characteristics [3] - The recent end of the U.S. government shutdown has shifted market focus towards economic data, increasing uncertainty due to diverging views on Federal Reserve policy [2][3] - Gold ETF funds have seen significant net inflows, with a total of 3.31 billion yuan over three days, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 2 - As of November 13, 2025, the gold ETF fund has experienced a 4.77% increase over the past week, with a current price of 9.13 yuan [1] - On November 13, spot gold prices fell by 0.54% to $4,172.84 per ounce, with a notable drop of over $100 during the day due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials [2] - The trading volume for the gold ETF fund reached 5.39 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 13.43 billion yuan over the past week [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continued to strengthen but experienced volatility due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with a significant intraday fluctuation exceeding $100 [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - As of the close, COMEX gold futures fell by 0.93% to $4,174.5 per ounce, while the China Gold ETF rose by 1.6% and the gold stock ETF increased by 3.07% [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. government ended its 43-day shutdown, marking the longest in history, which has shifted market focus towards economic data [1] - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on monetary policy, with concerns about inflation remaining above the 2% target, leading to increased market uncertainty [1] Group 3: Global Economic Outlook - Weak economic data from the Eurozone and an unclear global economic outlook are supporting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]

相关分析指出，美国政府结束停摆后市场关注经济数据，美联储政策分歧加剧市场不确定性。欧元区经 济数据疲软，全球经济前景不明朗支撑黄金避险需求。 11月13日，金价延续走强，盘中受美联储官员鹰派言论影响快速跳水，尾盘小幅回升，日内波动超100 美元，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.93%报4174.5美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850) 涨1.6%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨3.07%。 消息面上，美国结束了持续43天史上最长联邦政府"停摆"。美联储官员释放鹰派言论，其中美联储卡什 卡利表示，他不支持美联储上一次的降息决定，但对12月的政策会议应采取何种行动仍未作出决定。美 联储穆萨勒姆表示，鉴于通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标，决策者在进一步降息方面应保持谨慎。美联储 哈马克表示，美联储应维持利率不变，以继续降低通胀。 ...

Core Insights - The gold market is experiencing a volatile yet stable trend, influenced by multiple international factors, which is crucial for both consumers and investors [1] - International gold prices have fluctuated between $3900 and $4050 per ounce, primarily driven by developments in the U.S. market [1][8] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is at a low of 50.3, the lowest since June 2022, indicating increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] International Gold Market Data - As of November 8, 2025, the international gold price is reported at $4000.8 per ounce, while domestic gold is priced at 917.4 yuan per gram [3] - Silver and platinum prices are reported at 11.15 yuan per gram and 356.2 yuan per gram, respectively, showing a relatively stable price trend [3] Domestic Market Price Details - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with real-time prices at 915.5 yuan per gram for gold, 11.1 yuan per gram for silver, and 356 yuan per gram for platinum [4] - Retail gold jewelry prices are consistent, with major brands priced around 1268 yuan per gram, while some brands like Cai Bai and China Gold offer more competitive pricing [4] - Certain brands have seen price increases, with notable rises from Jin Dafu by 9 yuan, indicating market dynamics at play [4] Bank Gold Bar Prices - Prices for bank gold bars vary among the four major banks, with Agricultural Bank offering the highest price at 945.20 yuan per gram, while Bank of China offers the lowest at 928.73 yuan per gram [6] Hong Kong Brand Gold Prices - In Hong Kong, brand gold prices are reported between 1184-1185 HKD per gram, which translates to approximately 1084-1085 yuan per gram, highlighting a significant price difference compared to mainland retail prices [6] Overall Market Analysis - The current gold price trends are a result of both international macroeconomic conditions and domestic consumer demand [8] - Consumers are advised to monitor the impact of international gold prices on the domestic market for better purchasing decisions, while investors should focus on U.S. Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical changes [8]

Group 1 - India's gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are experiencing record inflows, with purchases nearing $3 billion, equivalent to approximately 26 tons of gold this year [1] - The surge in investment is attributed to historical high gold prices, central bank purchases, geopolitical and economic concerns, and the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, with gold prices rising over 50% year-to-date [1] - In October, Indian gold ETFs saw an inflow of $850 million, slightly lower than the previous month's $942 million, bringing total assets to $11 billion and total gold holdings to 83.5 tons [1] Group 2 - As of the end of October, China's gold reserves stood at 74.09 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of September, marking 12 consecutive months of gold accumulation [2] - However, the monthly purchase volume has dropped to the lowest level since the resumption of accumulation in November 2024 [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - The U.S. gold market showed significant growth in Q3, with demand surging 58% year-on-year to 186 tons, making it a focal point in the global gold market [2] - North American gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $16 billion, significantly boosting trading volumes [2] - Global gold ETF holdings increased by 222 tons to a record 3,838 tons, with U.S. funds contributing 137 tons, accounting for 62% of global net inflows [2] Group 2: Demand Trends - U.S. consumer gold demand (jewelry, bars, and coins) fell by 33% year-on-year to 32 tons, with jewelry consumption down 12% to 25 tons and bars and coins demand plummeting 64% to 7 tons, the lowest since pre-pandemic levels [2] - Despite the decline in volume, jewelry spending in dollars rose by 23% year-on-year, marking nine consecutive quarters of growth [2] Group 3: Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume for gold futures and options on the New York Commodity Exchange increased by 35% year-on-year, while North American ETF daily trading volume surged by 109% [3] - Retail demand in the U.S. has rebounded significantly, with major retailers like Costco planning to expand their gold bar offerings due to strong demand [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Bloomberg forecasts that gold prices will continue to rise in the first half of 2026, driven by persistent inflation expectations and geopolitical risks [3] - Analysts from the World Gold Council suggest that the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is likely to persist into the first half of 2026 [3] Group 5: Current Gold Prices - As of November 7, spot gold is trading around $3,992.13 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.41%, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons in Q3 2025, driven by a surge in investment demand, marking a 3% year-on-year increase [2] - The World Gold Council (WGC) reported that the price of gold has risen by 50% this year, reaching a historical peak of $4381 per ounce on October 20, influenced by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies [2] - Investment demand is expected to remain optimistic due to a weakening dollar, rising interest rate cut expectations, and threats of stagflation, indicating that the gold market has not yet reached saturation [2] Group 2 - Demand for gold bars and coins increased by 17% year-on-year, primarily driven by markets in India and China, while inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) surged by 134% [3] - In contrast, global gold jewelry manufacturing demand fell by 23% year-on-year to 419.2 tons, as high gold prices dampened consumer purchasing willingness [3] - Central banks' gold purchases increased by 10% year-on-year in Q3, totaling 219.9 tons, with a cumulative purchase of 634 tons from January to September 2025, significantly higher than pre-2022 levels [3] Group 3 - On the supply side, gold recycling increased by 6% year-on-year, and gold mine production rose by 2%, contributing to a record high in global gold supply for the quarter [4]