Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy is significantly deteriorating global trade prospects, with a projected 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [1] - The global trade landscape is being restructured into two distinct tracks: one that continues to thrive and another that is experiencing rapid de-globalization [1][3] - Approximately 25% of global GDP is concentrated in industries critical to national security, such as semiconductors and energy, which are less affected by U.S. tariffs [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Despite tariff and industrial policy challenges, sectors like semiconductors, electric vehicles, and mining still present rich investment opportunities [2][8] - Advanced chips are crucial for AI applications and are becoming a focal point of great power competition, with leading firms able to mitigate regional risks through diversified customer bases [8] - The electric vehicle market is expanding, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America, where Chinese brands are gaining traction despite facing tariffs in Western markets [9] Group 3: Structural Advantages and Market Dynamics - Investors should focus on specific companies and value chains that possess structural advantages, rather than being swayed by emotional responses to tariffs [2][6] - The dual-track globalization may require investors to reassess their risk frameworks and conduct geopolitical stress tests on their portfolios [6] - Countries with manufacturing capabilities and those rich in metals and minerals, such as Australia and Chile, are expected to benefit from the new global economic landscape [7]