炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：MZ的投资随笔， 原发时间：2025年11月27日 中日10年期国债收益率倒挂，暗示中国经济可能"日本化"，面临通缩压力。投资者应转向"防守与套利"策略，配置高股息资产、全球多元化资产、硬通 货，避免高风险投资，确保本金安全并跑赢通胀。 解析:这是一个具有历史意义的宏观时刻。中日长 期利率（10年期国债收益率）的倒挂，不仅仅是数 字的交叉，更象征着两个经济体处于完全不同的周 期阶段。 这也验证了市场对中国经济"日本化"(长期资产负 债表衰退、低通胀、低利率）的担忧正在加剧，而 日本正在走出这一阶段。这对普通投资者和家庭资 产配置意味着传统的"高增长预期"逻辑必须彻底转 变为"防守与套利"逻辑。以下是具体的深度分析与 配置建议: 一、 这一信号的核心宏观含义 第一， 宏观周期的错位。 ①中国（衰退/复苏早期）： 面临通缩压力，央行 必须维持低利率(甚至更低)来刺激借贷和消费。 长期国债收益率低,说明资金不看好长期经济的高 增长，更愿意锁定低收益的安全资产。 ② 日本（复苏/过热早期）: 终于走出通缩,工资 上涨，央行开始货币正常化, ...

Core Insights - ITT reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.64, exceeding the analyst forecast of $1.61, and revenue of $972.4 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $948.47 million [1][2] - Orders exceeded $1 billion, resulting in a backlog of nearly $2 billion at the end of the quarter, indicating strong demand and growth across all major segments [1][5][8] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS increased by 10.1% year-over-year, while revenue grew by 7.3% [2][5] - Operating margin improved to 18.0%, with company-wide operating income rising nearly 10% [2][7] - Free cash flow reached $137.3 million, a 2.1% increase from the previous year [2][9] Segment Performance - Motion Technologies reported sales of $365.7 million, a 4.9% decline, but showed organic growth of 3.0% [6] - Industrial Process generated $355.9 million in revenue, up 7.6% reported and 5.5% organically [6] - Connect & Control Technologies saw a 31.3% increase in sales to $251.9 million, with organic growth of 4.5% [6] Strategic Focus - ITT is focusing on global diversification and expanding in high-growth markets, with consistent investment in R&D [4] - Recent innovations include energy-saving industrial motor drives and targeted acquisitions to enhance exposure to aerospace and sustainability-linked markets [4] Future Outlook - Management raised full-year revenue guidance to a 5-7% increase, with adjusted EPS expected to be between $6.35 and $6.55, reflecting year-over-year growth of 8-11% [10] - Free cash flow is projected to be in the $450-500 million range, accounting for 12-13% of revenue [10] - Investors should monitor segment-level margin improvements, order trends, and the impact of tariff-related cost increases [11]

Core Viewpoint - Global diversification remains a significant theme for investors, especially as trade tensions ease and potential investments in the U.S. may increase [1] Group 1: Global Investment Landscape - The credibility issues surrounding the U.S. and its institutions are unlikely to disappear in the long term [1] - In Europe, the potential benefits of moving away from fiscal tightening and considering deregulation are expected to enhance its long-term economic outlook [1] Group 2: U.S. Investment Confidence - If the U.S. does not intend to redefine trade boundaries at the expense of short-term economic strength, confidence in the U.S. as an investment destination may be restored [1] - A key question is whether discussions around ending the notion of U.S. exceptionalism will cease [1]