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贵金属日评:美联储12月降息预期升温支撑贵金属价格-20251201
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 02:59
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising, which, along with fiscal easing policies in multiple countries, continuous gold - buying by central banks, high London silver lease rates, and geopolitical risks, may support precious metal prices [1]. - The global platinum supply - demand is expected to be tight from 2025 - 2026, and with the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, platinum prices may fluctuate strongly [1]. - The global palladium supply - demand may shift from tight to loose from 2025 - 2026, but due to the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, palladium prices may be cautiously strong [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: On November 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures closing price was 930.32 yuan/gram, with a change of 6.76 yuan from the previous day and 23.60 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 189,713, and the open interest was 202,129. The spot Shanghai gold T + D closing price was 925.75 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 53,158 and an open interest of 233,348. COMEX gold futures closing price was 4078.30 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 149,887 and an open interest of 308,199. The London gold spot price was 4191.05 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Silver**: On November 28, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures closing price was 12,727 yuan/ten - grams, with a trading volume of 1,827,650 and an open interest of 120,331. The spot Shanghai silver T + D closing price was 11,827 yuan/ten - grams, with a trading volume of 864,016 and an open interest of 4,008,616. COMEX silver futures closing price was 51.07 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 95,722 and an open interest of 112,132. The London silver spot price was 53.91 dollars/ounce [1]. Important News - Trump confirmed a phone call with Venezuelan President Maduro, stating that the remarks about closing Venezuelan airspace did not mean an imminent air strike. The media reported that Trump demanded Maduro's direct resignation [1]. - White House economic advisor Hassett said the market reacted positively to the news of selecting a Fed chairman by the end of the year, and reports that he was a top candidate were rumors. Trump refused to confirm appointing Hassett and claimed to know who to choose [1]. Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: It is advisable to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3800 - 4000 and the resistance level around 4300 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 970 - 1000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 and the resistance level around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 11500 - 12500 and the resistance level around 13700/14000 - 15000 [1]. - **Platinum**: Short - term, lightly - position, try to go long on the main contract at low prices, or focus on the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on platinum and short on palladium". For London platinum, focus on the support level around 1260 - 1460 and the resistance level around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, focus on the support level around 325 - 377 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1]. - **Palladium**: Short - term, lightly - position, try to go long on the main contract at low prices. For London palladium, focus on the support level around 1080 - 1280 and the resistance level around 1600 - 1800; for domestic palladium, focus on the support level around 320 - 350 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1].