来源：华夏时报 文/冉学东 近期，美联储12月降息的可能性显著降低。一方面，由于美国政府停摆，导致10月非农就业报告不能发 布；另一方面，上月货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，认为今年不 必再降息的人数未达到多数，但超过了支持降息的人数，一些中间派要视数据而定。受此影响，美元指 数再度上涨，涨超100点。 11月19日，美国劳工统计局表示，将不会单独发布10月非农就业报告，而是把相关的就业数据纳入11月 报告。11月非农就业报告将于12月16日发布，比原计划晚了一个多星期，并且是在美联储今年最后一次 会议之后公布。9月非农就业报告将于本周四发布。 非农就业报告是美联储利率决策最关键的数据，尤其是在此次降息周期中，美国通胀数据仍然在控制目 标之上，但是非农就业超出意料的下行，再加上特朗普政府极限施压，才开始再次降息。 美国劳工统计局更新后的发布时间表，使美联储失去了支持降息论点的关键证据，决策者对通胀前景的 判断上分歧进一步加剧。许多投资者已经确定12月暂停降息，联邦基金利率将维持在3.75%至4%的区间 不变。 受美联储12月降息预期弱化的影响，美元指数在11月19日上涨0.59 ...

换资前言： 市场很大，只需要超过百分之70以上的人就够了，看似很难，其实很简单，首先就是了解行情原理为什 么会涨，又怎么会跌，无非就是行情变化，那么影响行情变化的原因是什么？消息？基本？国际形势等 等结合。其次交易从来不是运气，市场上大部分都是靠运气在操作，可能运气会让你短暂获利，只有搞 懂行情，才能让你长久走下去，要么不做，要做就需要了解，为什么你能获利，还有就是心态放好，交 易是为了盈利的交易，不是为了赌气也不是为了交易而交易，所以交易者必须明白价格处于什么阶段就 采取什么操作！交易者不是永远的多头，也不是永远的空头，交易者永远是跟随市场变化而变化！交易 者必须有自己的防御系统来控制风险！风险控制，资金管理在您的交易中必须具备！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四亚洲交易时段，现货黄金微幅上涨与小幅回落之间反复波动，维持在4060美元附近整理。随着美国 9月非农就业报告将在稍晚公布，市场普遍保持谨慎，投资者普遍选择暂缓新增方向性仓位。当前的横 盘格局亦反映了市场对宏观不确定性的敏感程度正在提升。 影响金价的核心因素仍然来自利率预期变 化。投资者在关键的美国非农就业报告公布前保 ...

张尧浠：12月降息预期再反转、金价短期再待非农指引 上交易日周三(11月19日)：国际黄金冲高回落倒垂收涨，多头动力未能持稳增强，但也处在中轨上方，美联储会议纪要整体显示未来仍偏向宽松政策，故 此，前景上，金价仍偏向看涨。短暂的回撤或震荡调整，也仍是在为多头制造入场机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4066.08美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4055.54美元，之后震荡反弹回升，一直延续到美盘23点时段录得日内高点4132.38美 元，并就此连续跳水走低，2小时左右再度触及日内低点一线，最终触底回升，收于4077.77美元，日振幅76.84美元，收涨11.69美元，涨幅0.29%。 影响上，日内受到周二公布的ADP周度就业数据显示就业疲态延续，增强了市场对美联储可能在12月降息的预期等预期推动金价走强，但美盘时段此预期 又被反转，美联储12月降息预期大幅降温至30%，美俄被曝绕开乌克兰秘密拟定28点和谈框架减弱避险情绪，美元指数强势走强收涨，打压金价连续跳 水，最终由于支持买盘和美联储会议纪要：多数官员认为随着时间的推移会进一步放松政策而限制了回落力量，使其反弹收涨。 展望今日周四(11月20日)：国际黄金开盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, Fed officials' hawkish remarks have led to a convergence of the December interest - rate cut expectation, with the market - priced probability dropping from 60% to 50%. The end of the US government shutdown and other factors have affected the financial markets. Domestically, October's credit and social financing data were weak. The A - share market may reach new highs in the short term but faces adjustment risks, while the bond market is in a volatile and differentiated state [2][3]. - The recent rebound in precious metal prices has ended, and they will enter a new adjustment phase. Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term. Aluminum prices may undergo high - level consolidation due to short - term macro - mood changes. Alumina futures will continue to oscillate. Cast aluminum will mainly follow the high - level oscillations of primary aluminum. Zinc prices will oscillate weakly in the short term. Lead prices will undergo high - level adjustments. Tin prices will experience high - level adjustments with limited adjustment ranges. Industrial silicon prices will shift to oscillations in the short term. Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely. Nickel prices have limited downside space. Soda ash and glass prices will maintain low - level oscillations. Steel prices will mainly oscillate and adjust. Iron ore prices will face pressure. Coking coal and coke prices will oscillate. Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate and adjust. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short term [4][7][8][10][11][12][14][15][17][19][21][23][24][25][26][29][31]. Summaries by Catalog Macroeconomics - Overseas: Fed officials are concerned about inflation stickiness. After two interest - rate cuts this year, the labor market has stabilized. The market - priced probability of a December interest - rate cut has dropped from 60% to 50%. Trump signed a bill to end the government shutdown, which caused about $1.5 trillion in losses. The US dollar index fell to 99.1, the US stock market fell by more than 2%, US bond yields rose, and gold, copper, and oil prices were affected [2]. - Domestic: In October, credit and social financing weakened. Government bond issuance declined, and real - economy financing demand was weak. The A - share market rose unilaterally, but there is a risk of subsequent adjustments. The bond market was volatile and differentiated, and long - term bond yields weakened [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious - metal futures prices fell. COMEX gold futures dropped 0.93% to $4174.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.30% to $52.23 per ounce. The reopening of the US government, Fed officials' hawkish remarks, and a decline in interest - rate cut expectations led to a correction in precious - metal prices [4]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper prices strengthened, and LME copper prices rose and then slightly declined. The internal divergence between hawkish and dovish factions at the Fed is prominent, and the December interest - rate cut is still uncertain, which drags down market risk appetite. Globally, the tight supply situation at mines continues, domestic refined copper production decreases monthly, and emerging industries drive new demand. Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with attention to the $11000 resistance for LME copper [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum prices rose, and LME aluminum prices fell. The change in short - term macro - mood may lead to high - level consolidation of aluminum prices. Domestically, aluminum social inventories decreased slightly this week, and overseas supply is expected to be disrupted due to power shortages, providing strong support for aluminum prices [8][9]. Alumina - On Thursday, alumina futures prices rose. The bearish effect of supply - demand balance and surplus continues to affect prices, but as spot prices approach costs and with the start of the heating season in the north, the expectation of production cuts is strengthening. The futures market is in a state of multi - empty game and will continue to oscillate [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, cast - aluminum alloy futures prices rose. The cost of scrap aluminum is tight, and copper and industrial silicon prices remain high, providing strong cost support. Supply is stable, and terminal automobile consumption is resilient. After reaching a new high, the position decreased slightly, and cast - aluminum prices are expected to follow the high - level oscillations of primary aluminum [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc prices were volatile, and LME zinc prices strengthened. The end of the US government shutdown and Fed officials' cautious signals on interest - rate cuts weakened market sentiment, causing zinc prices to fall. Domestic zinc exports are being realized, and overseas liquidity pressure has eased, weakening the support for zinc prices. Domestic consumption has weakened, but there is support at the bottom due to pressure on processing fees. Zinc prices will oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead prices fell, and LME lead prices were narrowly oscillating. The spread between futures and spot prices widened, and the willingness of holders to deliver increased. Social inventories increased, and the contradiction between supply and demand was alleviated. Lead prices are expected to undergo high - level adjustments in the short term [13][14]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin prices were volatile at a high level, and LME tin prices weakened. Market risk appetite declined, and SHFE tin prices decreased with reduced positions. Supply recovery is slow, and emerging demand has good prospects. Tin prices are expected to adjust at a high level with a limited adjustment range [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon prices oscillated. Supply has shifted to marginal contraction, and demand is cautious. The recent positive market sentiment has been realized, and prices are expected to shift to oscillations in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Domestic policies support energy storage development, and industry leaders have signed large - scale orders, but the growth rate of new - energy vehicle sales has turned negative year - on - year, and there is an expectation of strong import resource growth. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have reduced the expectation of a December interest - rate cut, but the Fed's bond - buying plan may ease dollar liquidity pressure. Philippine nickel ore prices are high, providing strong cost support. Nickel prices have limited downside space [20][21]. Soda Ash and Glass - On Thursday, soda - ash futures prices strengthened, and glass futures prices oscillated. Soda - ash production has decreased due to concentrated maintenance, and inventory has slightly declined. Glass demand is weak, and inventory has increased. Soda - ash and glass prices are expected to maintain low - level oscillations in the short term [22][23]. Steel - On Thursday, steel futures prices oscillated and rebounded slightly. This week, the supply of five major steel products decreased, inventory declined, and apparent consumption decreased slightly. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [24]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron - ore futures prices oscillated and rebounded. This week, port inventory increased, and downstream demand entered the off - season. Iron - ore prices are expected to face pressure [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking - coal and coke futures prices oscillated. Coal mine production has recovered, and the fourth round of coke price increases has partially taken effect. Downstream steel mills have increased maintenance, and demand for raw materials is expected to weaken. Coking - coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate [26]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, bean - meal and rapeseed - meal futures prices rose. The US government shutdown has ended, and the USDA crop - yield assessment report is about to be released. The market has a bullish expectation, and external - market prices are rising, providing cost support. Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [27][29]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm - oil, soybean - oil, and rapeseed - oil futures prices rose. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to tighten, and it has shown strength. The supply of palm oil is loose, but the upcoming road test of Indonesia's B50 in December and its implementation in the second half of next year have boosted market sentiment. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [30][31].

与此同时，美国政府的长期停摆，现在官方记录上是最长的，正在让风险情绪保持紧张，目前几乎没有 突破的迹象。 澳元兑美元技术分析 澳元兑美元的短期前景现在看起来已经恶化，为进一步的损失铺平了道路，同时关键的200日移动平均 线（SMA）在0.6450附近出现挑战，重新回到雷达上。因此，200天SMA的失守可能为测试10月支撑位 0.6440（10月14日）、8月支撑位0.6414（8月21日）以及6月低点0.6372（6月23日）铺平道路。 此外，动量指标仍然看跌：相对强弱指数（RSI）突破40水平，表明可能会出现更多损失，而平均方向 指数（ADX）高于16则表明没有强劲的趋势。 零售销售在六月份增长了1.2%，九月的贸易顺差急剧扩大至39.38亿澳元。商业投资在第二季度也有所 增加，帮助GDP季度增长0.6%，同比增长1.1%。虽然不显著，但足以表明经济仍有一些活力。 尽管如此，劳动力市场开始有点冷却：失业率在九月份上升到4.5%（从4.3%），而职位增长放缓至 14.9K。还没有什么戏剧性的变化，但招聘的步伐似乎在减慢。 美元指数（USD）在经历了一轮强劲的反弹后，又迎来了一天的调整。同时，市场对美联储（Fe ...