Core Viewpoint - The article presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in 2026, driven by tax cuts and potential government spending increases, despite concerns about tariffs and inflation [3][10]. Economic Growth Predictions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen predicts accelerated economic growth starting in 2026, supported by the tax cut law "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (BBB), which is expected to provide a stimulus equivalent to 0.3% of GDP [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's survey indicates a potential slowdown in economic growth to 1.8% in 2026 due to policy confusion and tariff pressures [3]. - The annualized GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.3%, indicating a healthy economic environment prior to potential disruptions from government shutdowns [3]. Government Spending and Taxation - The Hutchins Center estimates that government spending restoration could provide an additional GDP stimulus of 0.6% alongside the tax refunds [4]. - A significant reduction in IRS budget could lead to increased tax evasion, potentially impacting GDP by 0.25% or more [4]. Tariff Implications - The Congressional Budget Office forecasts tariff revenues to reach $215 billion by 2026, which could indirectly affect consumer purchasing power through higher prices [6]. - The Supreme Court's potential ruling on tariffs could necessitate refunds for companies that paid illegal tariffs, impacting GDP by approximately 0.5% [6][7]. Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, the lowest since 2022, indicating a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy [7]. - Predictions suggest that the S&P 500 index could rise by 9% in 2026, which would enhance household wealth and stimulate consumer spending [9]. Global Economic Context - Analysts predict that 2026 could witness strong international economic growth, driven by fiscal expansions in Germany and consumer stimulus reforms in China [10]. - Current Brent crude oil prices are at $61 per barrel, near a four-year low, which could further support economic growth [10]. Labor Market and Inflation Concerns - Despite a tight labor market, strong wage growth suggests resilience rather than weakness, although low hiring numbers remain a concern [10]. - The article warns that combining fiscal and monetary stimulus could reignite concerns over government debt, potentially undermining the credibility of the Federal Reserve's inflation target [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant volatility in silver prices, with a notable increase of over 5% followed by a sharp decline, attributed to various market factors [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced an increase in margin requirements for precious metal futures contracts, with silver margins rising by 13.6% [1] - President Trump's positive communication with President Putin is noted as a contributing factor to market fluctuations [1] - JPMorgan's warning about potential technical sell-offs due to the over-weighting of gold and silver in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is also a key concern, predicting a forced sell-off of 9% and 3% of total holdings for silver and gold respectively during the 2026 rebalancing [1] Group 2 - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains bullish, driven by several factors [2] - Trump's call for the new Federal Reserve Chairman to support significant interest rate cuts is expected to influence future monetary policy [2] - Fiscal easing measures from governments in Germany, the US, Japan, and the UK are anticipated to lead to increased global debt and fiscal deficit expectations [2] - The one-month borrowing rate for silver in London has exceeded 6.2%, indicating tight supply conditions [2] - Continued purchases of gold by central banks worldwide and ongoing geopolitical risks are also supporting the bullish sentiment for precious metals [2] - Future price resistance levels for silver are identified at $85-$95 per ounce in London and 21,600-24,000 yuan per kilogram in Shanghai [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expected Fed rate cuts and global debt inflation are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium to long - term. However, for platinum and palladium, although there are factors such as the Fed's expected rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, the supply - demand situation and high prices may lead to price adjustments [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data 3.1.1 Gold - Shanghai gold futures: On December 10, 2025, the closing price was 951.54, with a change of 2.98 from the previous day and 4.86 from the previous week; trading volume was 310489.00, a decrease of 6955.00 from the previous day and 87880.00 from the previous week; open interest was 194493.00, a decrease of 1834.00 from the previous day and 4979.00 from the previous week [1]. - Spot Shanghai Gold T+D: Closing price was 951.13, up 4.44 from the previous day and 2.69 from the previous week; trading volume was 28814.00, a decrease of 7010.00 from the previous day and 12850.00 from the previous week; open interest was 215872.00, a decrease of 15076.00 from the previous day and 1698.00 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX gold futures: Closing price was 4258.30, up 21.70 from the previous week and 19.60 from the previous day; trading volume was 180543.00, an increase of 6122.00 from the previous day and a decrease of 31526.00 from the previous week; open interest was 321283.00, an increase of 1832.00 from the previous day and 3457.00 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot: The price was 4200.15, up 2.15 from the previous day and down 14.60 from the previous week [1]. 3.1.2 Silver - Shanghai silver futures: Closing price was 766.00; trading volume was 1814842.00, an increase of 505812.00 from the previous day and a decrease of 466045.00 from the previous week; open interest was 450557.00, an increase of 33231.00 from the previous day and a decrease of 1846.00 from the previous week [1]. - Spot Shanghai Silver T+D: Closing price was 14377.00; trading volume was 822474.00, an increase of 47084.00 from the previous day; open interest was 3844778.00, a decrease of 48876.00 from the previous day and 11028.00 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures: Closing price was 62.20, up 3.05 from the previous day and 1.04 from the previous week; trading volume was 115710.00, an increase of 2658.00 from the previous day and 11107.00 from the previous week; open interest was 117642.00, an increase of 3463.00 from the previous day and 1755.00 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot: The price was 61.04, up 2.40 from the previous day and 3.60 from the previous week [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed. It is still expected to cut rates once next year and will buy $40 billion in short - term bonds. Powell said the bond - buying scale may remain at a high level in the next few months, the labor market is gradually cooling but slower than expected, and at the current interest rates, the Fed can wait patiently. The impact of tariffs is expected to gradually fade next year [1]. - Trump is conducting a "final interview for the Fed chairman." Hassett is not yet a certainty, and Bessent still has a chance to succeed. Hassett said Trump will make a final decision on the Fed chairman candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks and reiterated that the Fed still has a lot of room to cut interest rates [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Side Logic and Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - **Multi - and short - side logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and is expected to cut rates once each in 2026 and 2027, but the market expects two rate cuts in 2026. The Fed will start monthly reserve management purchases of short - term bonds worth $40 billion on December 12, which may gradually slow down to $20 - 25 billion per month later. Germany, the US, Japan, and the UK have launched fiscal stimulus policies, leading to expectations of debt inflation and fiscal deficit expansion in many countries. The 1 - month lease rate of London silver exceeds 6.4%, indicating a tight supply. Central banks of many countries are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the US - Venezuela remain unresolved [1]. - **Trading strategy**: Focus on going long on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around $3900 - 4100 and the resistance level around $4400 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 1000 - 1050. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around $49 - 54 and the resistance level around $63 - 72; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 11500 - 12500 and the resistance level around 15000 - 16000 [1]. 3.3.2 Platinum - **Multi - and short - side logic**: On the supply side, high mining costs, unstable power supply, and equipment maintenance may reduce global platinum production to 169 tons in 2025, and recycled platinum production may grow slowly to 50 tons. In 2026, global mined platinum production may be 174 tons, and recycled platinum production may be 53 tons, with total supply increasing to 227 tons. On the demand side, stricter emission standards increase the demand for platinum in traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles, and there is optimistic demand in industrial fields such as hydrogen production, but there is a risk of a decline in jewelry and investment demand. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) predicts supply deficits of 26 and 18 tons in 2025 - 2026, and an average annual deficit of about 19 tons until at least 2029. However, high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand [1]. - **Trading strategy**: Take profits on previous long positions on price rallies and cautiously hold "long platinum, short palladium" positions. For London platinum prices, pay attention to the support level around $1300 - 1500 and the resistance level around $1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum prices, pay attention to the support level around 335 - 385 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1]. 3.3.3 Palladium - **Multi - and short - side logic**: On the supply side, deep - mine mining, power shortages, labor disputes, and lower ore grades have affected palladium production, but the scrap cycle of Chinese and global cars from 2026 - 2027 is expected to increase recycled supply. In 2025, mined and recycled palladium production may be 199 and 92 tons respectively, with a total supply of 291 tons. In 2026, mined and recycled palladium production may be 194 and 98 tons respectively, with a total supply of 292 tons. On the demand side, stricter emission standards and the development of new - energy vehicles have reduced the demand for palladium in the automotive sector, while the demand in industrial and medical fields has low elasticity. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) predicts supply deficits of 8 and 3 tons in 2025 - 2026, and the supply - demand situation is expected to ease in 2027 [1]. - **Trading strategy**: Take profits on previous long positions on price rallies. For London palladium prices, pay attention to the support level around $1190 - 1390 and the resistance level around $1600 - 1800; for domestic palladium prices, pay attention to the support level around 305 - 357 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The expected future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve support the prices of precious metals. Economic and employment data are mixed, which disturbs the probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed, but the probability remains above 80%. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries, central banks' continuous gold purchases, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices in the long - term. The supply - demand expectations for platinum and rhodium in 2025 - 26 are tight and may shift from tight to loose respectively, and their prices may be adjusted due to various factors [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Data - **Gold**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of the futures active contract was 956.70, with a decrease of 1.72 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 273,359, a decrease of 13,624 from the previous day. The inventory (in ten - gram units) remained at 90,873. For spot Shanghai gold T+D, the closing price was - 5.15, the trading volume was 26,942, and the holding weight was 220,396. The spread between the near - month continuous and far - month active contracts was - 3.32, and the basis (spot - to - futures price difference) was - 3.73. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 4,133.80, the trading volume was 169,613, and the inventory (in troy ounces) was 36,573,657.72. The price of London gold spot was 4,210.30 [1] - **Silver**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of the futures active contract of Shanghai silver was 13,536, the trading volume was 984,592, and the holding weight was - 53,754. The spread between the near - month continuous and far - month active contracts was - 7.00, and the basis was - 21.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX silver futures was 58.93, the trading volume was 107,261, and the inventory (in troy ounces) was 455,933,737.28. The price of London silver spot was 58.37 [1] Important Information - Bessent downplayed the Federal Reserve Chairman's control over interest rates and proposed setting a residence limit for regional Fed presidents, stating that tariffs could be reconfigured. The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop since March 2023, while the US ISM services PMI expansion rate was the fastest in nine months, the price index was at a seven - month low, and the employment index was at a six - month high [1] Multi - and Short - Side Logic and Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: The multi - side logic includes mixed economic and employment data disturbing the Fed's December interest rate cut probability, but the probability remaining above 80% due to some Fed officials' support. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries, central banks' continuous gold purchases, high London silver lease rates, and geopolitical risks support precious metal prices in the long - term. The trading strategy is to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,800 - 4,000 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on 890 - 920 and 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on 49 - 54 and 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on 11,500 - 12,500 and 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - **Platinum**: The supply - side factors include high deep - mine mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment affecting production, and slow growth in recycled platinum production. The demand - side factors include increased demand from traditional fuel and hybrid cars due to higher emission standards and positive demand expectations from industries like hydrogen production, fiberglass, and jewelry investment. The 2025 - 26 global platinum supply - demand is expected to be tight. However, the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December, the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and high platinum prices suppressing downstream demand may lead to price adjustments. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, or consider the "long platinum, short silver" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum, focus on 335 - 385 and 465 - 516 [1] - **Rhodium**: On the supply side, deep - mine mining, power shortages, labor disputes, and lower ore grades affect production, but an increase in recycled rhodium supply is expected due to the car scrapping cycle in China and globally. On the demand side, demand from cars is expected to decline due to higher emission standards and the development of new energy vehicles, and the demand elasticity in the industrial and medical fields is low. The 2025 - 26 global rhodium supply - demand is expected to shift from tight to loose. The expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December, the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and the supply - demand shift may lead to price adjustments. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices. For London rhodium, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic rhodium, focus on 305 - 357 and 415 - 465 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's future interest rate cut expectations support precious metal prices. Economic and employment data are mixed, which disturbs the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term. The supply - demand expectations of platinum and palladium are different, and their prices may be adjusted due to various factors such as interest rate expectations and supply - demand changes [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price was 956.70 yuan/g, the trading volume was 273,359.00, and the inventory was 90,873.00 (ten - gram). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 9.54 yuan/g, and the trading volume decreased by 26,737.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 13,423.00 yuan/ten - gram, the trading volume was 2,664,403.00, and the inventory was 626,633.00 (ten - gram). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 159.00 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume increased by 2,464,589.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 4,133.80 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 169,613.00, and the inventory was 36,573,657.72 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 101.00 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume decreased by 42,456.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 58.93 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 107,261.00, and the inventory was 455,933,737.28 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous week, the closing price decreased by 0.22 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume decreased by 4,787.00 [1] 3.2 Important Information - Bessent downplayed the Fed Chairman's control over interest rates and proposed setting a residency limit for regional Fed presidents, saying that tariffs could be re - structured. The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. However, the US ISM services PMI expansion speed was the fastest in nine months, the price index was at a seven - month low, and the employment index was at a six - month high [1] 3.3 Gold and Silver - **Multi - empty Logic**: US economic and employment data in November were mixed, disturbing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. But the probability of a December rate cut was still over 80%. Fiscal stimulus policies in multiple countries led to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficits, and central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,800 - 4,000 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 890 - 920 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 970 - 1,000 yuan/g. Similar support and resistance levels are provided for silver [1] 3.4 Platinum - **Multi - empty Logic**: Supply is affected by high mining costs, unstable power supply, etc., and demand is expected to increase due to stricter emission standards. The supply - demand of platinum is expected to be tight from 2025 - 2026. However, the expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates and high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to price adjustments [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies. Consider the "long platinum, short silver" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000 dollars/ounce. For domestic platinum, the support level is around 335 - 385 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 465 - 516 yuan/g [1] 3.5 Palladium - **Multi - empty Logic**: Supply is affected by mining difficulties but may increase due to vehicle scrapping. Demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, and the supply - demand of palladium is expected to shift from tight to loose from 2025 - 2026. Interest rate expectations and supply - demand changes may lead to price adjustments [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800 dollars/ounce. For domestic palladium, the support level is around 305 - 357 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 415 - 465 yuan/g [1]

Macro News - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November, marking nine consecutive months of contraction, with new orders declining at the fastest pace since July and factory employment continuing to shrink [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, suggesting a normalization of rates to around 0.75% if wage and inflation momentum continues, indicating a shift from ultra-loose monetary policy rather than a tightening [1] Institutional Perspectives - The strong signal from the Bank of Japan's Governor regarding a December rate hike may lead to adjustments in asset prices globally, potentially impacting precious metal prices in the short term [1] - Weak economic and employment data from the US, combined with some Federal Reserve officials supporting a rate cut in December, has increased expectations for a rate cut by the Fed [1] - Fiscal easing policies have been introduced by Germany, the US, Japan, and the UK, contributing to expectations of rising global debt and fiscal deficits [1] - Central banks around the world continue to purchase gold, with the one-month borrowing rate for London silver exceeding 5%, while geopolitical risks in regions like Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising, which, along with fiscal easing policies in multiple countries, continuous gold - buying by central banks, high London silver lease rates, and geopolitical risks, may support precious metal prices [1]. - The global platinum supply - demand is expected to be tight from 2025 - 2026, and with the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, platinum prices may fluctuate strongly [1]. - The global palladium supply - demand may shift from tight to loose from 2025 - 2026, but due to the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, palladium prices may be cautiously strong [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: On November 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures closing price was 930.32 yuan/gram, with a change of 6.76 yuan from the previous day and 23.60 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 189,713, and the open interest was 202,129. The spot Shanghai gold T + D closing price was 925.75 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 53,158 and an open interest of 233,348. COMEX gold futures closing price was 4078.30 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 149,887 and an open interest of 308,199. The London gold spot price was 4191.05 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Silver**: On November 28, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures closing price was 12,727 yuan/ten - grams, with a trading volume of 1,827,650 and an open interest of 120,331. The spot Shanghai silver T + D closing price was 11,827 yuan/ten - grams, with a trading volume of 864,016 and an open interest of 4,008,616. COMEX silver futures closing price was 51.07 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 95,722 and an open interest of 112,132. The London silver spot price was 53.91 dollars/ounce [1]. Important News - Trump confirmed a phone call with Venezuelan President Maduro, stating that the remarks about closing Venezuelan airspace did not mean an imminent air strike. The media reported that Trump demanded Maduro's direct resignation [1]. - White House economic advisor Hassett said the market reacted positively to the news of selecting a Fed chairman by the end of the year, and reports that he was a top candidate were rumors. Trump refused to confirm appointing Hassett and claimed to know who to choose [1]. Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: It is advisable to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3800 - 4000 and the resistance level around 4300 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 970 - 1000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 and the resistance level around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 11500 - 12500 and the resistance level around 13700/14000 - 15000 [1]. - **Platinum**: Short - term, lightly - position, try to go long on the main contract at low prices, or focus on the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on platinum and short on palladium". For London platinum, focus on the support level around 1260 - 1460 and the resistance level around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, focus on the support level around 325 - 377 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1]. - **Palladium**: Short - term, lightly - position, try to go long on the main contract at low prices. For London palladium, focus on the support level around 1080 - 1280 and the resistance level around 1600 - 1800; for domestic palladium, focus on the support level around 320 - 350 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1].

Economic Outlook - The European Union forecasts that the German economy will grow by 1.2% in both 2026 and 2027, indicating potential signs of recovery after over five years of stagnation [1] - The German Federal Statistical Office reported that the GDP remained stable in the third quarter, avoiding recession, with industrial orders, output, and exports showing signs of recovery [1][4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that reforms to the debt brake mechanism by the German government are expected to support gradual economic recovery [1] Investment and Infrastructure - The German government has established a special fund totaling €500 billion for infrastructure projects, which is classified as additional debt and does not count against the current debt ceiling [2][5] - A significant portion of this fund is allocated for defense, with local arms manufacturers hiring workers from the automotive sector to support expansion plans [5] - Analysts believe that the efficiency of implementing these infrastructure projects is crucial, as delays could lead to inflationary pressures [5][10] Economic Challenges - Despite the positive outlook, the IMF warned that without further bold reforms at both domestic and EU levels, Germany faces serious mid-term growth challenges [2][8] - The labor force in Germany is expected to decline more sharply than in any other G7 country over the next five years, posing a significant challenge to economic growth [8] - Concerns have been raised about the potential misuse of new borrowing, with warnings that funds could be diverted to welfare spending rather than infrastructure [9][10] Long-term Growth Potential - The IMF anticipates that higher government spending starting in 2026 will provide a significant boost to economic growth, with GDP growth expected to accelerate to around 1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 [6][7] - The construction sector, which has faced a deep recession, is seen as critical for Germany's economic recovery, with expectations of a rebound due to cyclical rather than structural issues [5][6] - The ongoing demand for high-end manufacturing within the EU is expected to support Germany's economy, despite challenges faced by the automotive industry [6]

Core Points - The article discusses President Trump's push for a comprehensive tax reform bill aimed at extending tax cuts and significantly reducing government spending, amidst internal conflicts within the Republican Party [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Reform Bill Details - The proposed bill will extend personal income tax cuts, increase the standard deduction and child tax credit, and reduce taxes on tips and overtime pay, aligning with Trump's 2024 campaign promises [2]. - The legislation will also increase military and border security spending while cutting billions from Medicaid and clean energy tax credits [2]. - The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CFRB) estimates that the bill will increase U.S. national debt by over $3.3 trillion over the next decade [2]. Group 2: Internal Party Conflicts - The Republican Party holds a slim majority in the House, making it crucial for Trump to manage dissent among party members to pass the bill [1]. - There is ongoing contention between hardline conservatives and moderates regarding issues such as climate tax credits and state and local tax deductions [1][3]. - Some Republican members have expressed concerns that the proposed tax cuts primarily benefit wealthier individuals in blue states, potentially increasing the deficit [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Investors are wary of the proposed tax reform, raising questions about the sustainability of U.S. public finances and the willingness of global markets to fund Washington's debt [2][4]. - The CFRB projects that the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from 100% to a record 125%, with annual deficits increasing from approximately 6.4% to 6.9% of GDP by 2024 [4]. - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's has led to rising long-term Treasury yields, indicating increased borrowing costs for the government [2][4].