Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged past $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, while domestic gold jewelry prices are also rising significantly, creating a dilemma for potential investors on whether to enter the market now or wait [1][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The primary driver of the gold price surge is the strong market expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [2]. - A weakening US dollar has also contributed to the rise in gold prices, making gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies, thus stimulating demand [2]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, have led investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, enhancing its value [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Global central banks are continuously increasing their gold holdings, providing solid buying support for gold prices. Over 90% of surveyed central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking a new high since the survey began in 2019 [3]. Group 3: Domestic Market Performance - The domestic gold market is thriving, with prices for gold bars and jewelry rising significantly. Major brands are reporting prices above 1020 RMB per gram, reflecting the strong performance of gold [6]. - The A-share market's gold sector is also performing well, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases due to the rising gold prices [6]. Group 4: Divergent Market Opinions - There is a notable divergence in opinions among Wall Street institutions regarding future gold prices. Optimistic forecasts suggest prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, while others caution against potential overvaluation and risks of a price correction [4][6]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - Gold jewelry is not considered an ideal investment due to high processing costs, which diminish its investment value. In contrast, physical gold such as bars and coins is more directly linked to market prices and has lower premiums [10]. - Data from the China Gold Association indicates a significant decline in gold jewelry consumption, while demand for gold bars and coins has increased, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences towards more investment-oriented gold products [10].