Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the shifting focus of traders from geopolitical risks to the implications of Federal Reserve policies and fiscal deficits, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a weakening against the euro and pound [1][3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September has increased, diminishing the dollar's interest rate advantage, while expanding fiscal deficits raise concerns about government bond supply [1][3]. - The eurozone is experiencing discussions around budget expansion and industrial subsidies, which may narrow the growth gap in the euro area, while the UK benefits from a stable labor market and high interest rate expectations [1][3]. Group 2 - The Japanese yen is weakening due to concerns from the Bank of Japan regarding the impact of tariffs on exports and corporate confidence, leading to a preference for a wait-and-see approach rather than immediate rate hikes [3]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan has created a unique market dynamic, with traders engaging in "sell USD, buy EUR" and "buy USD, sell JPY" strategies simultaneously [3]. - The upcoming PCE price index and ISM manufacturing index will serve as critical tests for the dollar's strength, with potential implications for positioning in the currency market [3]. Group 3 - The euro's upward movement faces challenges, including the need for parliamentary approval for budget expansion, which could reverse optimistic expectations if disputes arise over deficit limits and spending structures [4]. - The British pound is also under pressure from persistent inflation and growth concerns following the Bank of England's tightening cycle [4]. - Market participants are advised to monitor the dynamics of interest rate differentials and fiscal expectations, as unexpected developments in European budgets or Japanese monetary policy could quickly alter current trading strategies [4].