Core Insights - A covert cross-border transaction involving 3,834 tons of antimony oxide has highlighted the strategic resource competition globally, with the material flowing from Asia to North America without proper authorization [1][3] - In December, amid rising tensions in US-China trade relations, China imposed stricter export controls on key minerals, including antimony and rare earths, to prevent illegal outflows to specific countries [1][3] - The US high-tech industries, particularly in semiconductors, military, communications, and electric vehicles, have raised alarms about supply chain disruptions due to China's control over over 80% of global rare earth refining capacity [3][5] Industry Dynamics - China has established a complete industrial chain and technological barriers in the rare earth sector over the past two decades, excelling in high-purity refining and material processing [5][9] - The US, once a leader in rare earth production, has lost its competitive edge due to strategic shortsightedness, leading to a reliance on China for these critical resources [3][5] - Efforts by the US to develop alternative supply chains in countries like Vietnam, India, and Australia have largely failed due to a lack of technological support and industrial ecosystem [5][9] Regulatory Responses - In response to the antimony oxide incident, China has implemented new regulations requiring detailed online reporting of all rare earth transactions, including transaction volume and customer identity [3][7] - China may adopt a "targeted pressure" strategy against countries facilitating the transshipment of rare earths, including demanding proof of origin and complete transaction chains [7][9] - The ongoing competition is not just about resource control but also about reshaping global resource order, with China moving from a reactive to a proactive stance in the geopolitical landscape [9]