Core Viewpoint - The oil ETF (561360) opened down by 1.17% at 1.185 yuan, reflecting a mixed performance among its major holdings [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The oil ETF (561360) has a performance benchmark of the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index return rate [1] - Since its establishment on October 23, 2023, the fund has achieved a return of 19.63% [1] - The fund's return over the past month is reported at 7.61% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) opened down by 0.34% [1] - China Petroleum opened down by 0.10% [1] - China Petrochemical remained unchanged at 0.00% [1] - Jereh Group opened down by 1.55% [1] - China Merchants Energy opened up by 0.33% [1] - Guanghui Energy opened down by 0.39% [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy opened up by 0.79% [1] - Hengli Petrochemical opened down by 1.15% [1] - China Merchants South Oil opened down by 0.31% [1] - CNOOC Engineering opened down by 0.53% [1]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 油价中枢存在底部支撑，石油ETF（561360）涨超1.5%。 华泰证券表示，全球新能源替代稳步推进，叠加2025Q4起OPEC+实际供应增量或将集中释放，以 及南美等低成本增量供给投放，全球原油供应过剩压力或将凸显，维持2025-2026年布伦特原油均价预 测为68美元/桶、62美元/桶，预测2025Q4-2026Q2布伦特均价为63美元/桶、61美元/桶、60美元/桶。中 长期而言，产油国"利重于量"诉求未改 ...

光大证券指出，面对新一轮油价波动周期，"三桶油"深化增储上产，加强成本管控，业绩韧性凸显。中 国石油、中国石化、中国海油2025年油气当量产量计划分别增长1.6%、1.5%、5.9%；炼油板块推进低 成本"油转化"、高价值"油转特"，销售板块向"油气氢电服"综合能源服务商转型，化工业务提升高附加 值产品比例。当前原油市场面临供需过剩，OPEC+暂停增产有望改善过剩风险。IEA预计2026年原油需 求增长70万桶/日，供给增长240万桶/日。地缘政治方面，欧美对俄制裁加剧，俄乌冲突长期化或为油 价提供风险溢价。短期油价受需求低迷及累库压力影响承压，但中长期供需格局仍具景气基础，"三桶 油"有望实现穿越周期的长期成长。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数从市场中选取涉及石油、天然气勘探开 采、储运销售及相关服务业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映油气产业链相关上市公司证券的整 体表现。该指数成分股覆盖上游勘探开发、中游运输储存和下游加工销售等全产业链环节，具有显著的 周期性特征。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

东北证券指出，我国石油化工行业面临"高端不足、低端过剩"的结构性矛盾，过剩导致行业景气度承 压，"内卷式"竞争加剧。政策推动下，行业将通过落后产能退出、高端化转型等措施实现高质量发展。 炼油行业在落后产能出清和需求达峰的背景下，边际供需格局有望改善，炼化龙头或持续受益。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数从市场中选取涉及石油、天然气勘探、 开采、炼制及销售等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，成分股主要为能源行业大型企业，具有较强的 周期性和资源依赖性特征，以反映油气产业链相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in crude oil prices, with Brent, WTI, and ESPO crude spot prices rising by 4.85%, 1.82%, and 5.51% respectively as of July 29 [1] - In June, the average price increase for OPEC and domestic crude oil from Daqing, Nanhai, and Shengli ranged from 7.43% to 11.29% [1] - China's crude oil imports increased by 7.06% month-on-month, while exports saw a substantial rise of 611.63% [1] Group 2 - The utilization rate of U.S. refinery capacity rose to 95.4%, with supplies of finished gasoline and petroleum products increasing by 5.93% and 4.39% respectively [1] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes listed companies involved in oil and gas exploration, extraction, refining, and sales [1] - The index primarily consists of large state-owned and private oil and gas companies, reflecting the overall performance of the energy sector, which is cyclical and significantly influenced by international oil price fluctuations [1] Group 3 - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Oil and Gas Industry ETF Initiated Link A (020405) and Guotai CSI Oil and Gas Industry ETF Initiated Link C (020406) [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently maintained above 3500 points, but the significance of this level is primarily psychological, and a breakthrough does not necessarily indicate a trend formation. Future focus should be on macroeconomic recovery [1] - The A-share market is expected to experience a recovery in return on equity (ROE) driven by three main factors: the reduction of internal competition, strengthening of overseas manufacturing boosting exports, and the cessation of debt contraction [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In Q2, actual GDP growth was 5.2% year-on-year, while nominal growth was 3.9%, remaining stable compared to Q2 of the previous year. Industrial output, exports, and retail sales showed mixed results, with industrial output increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [2] - The decline in retail sales is attributed to significant drops in sectors such as dining, tobacco, beverages, and cosmetics, as well as disruptions from national subsidy promotion policies [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The cement industry is experiencing its lowest operating rates since 2019, with production continuing to decline since 2022. However, price indices have started to rebound since mid-2024 [4][5] - Capital expenditure growth has been negative since 2023, but ROE is expected to stabilize and recover by Q2 2024, indicating a potential bottoming out of capital returns across various industries [4] Group 4: Liquidity and Credit Expansion - M1 money supply has seen significant growth due to strong financing in June, which has increased the amount of demand deposits for enterprises. The easing of debt repayment pressures is also contributing to this liquidity expansion [9] - Social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan in June, surpassing expectations, indicating a credit expansion that supports economic recovery [9] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Traditional industries such as coal, oil, steel, transportation, utilities, real estate, and non-bank financials still have a significant proportion of stocks with low price-to-book (PB) ratios, suggesting better value compared to TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [12][13] - Investors are advised to focus on ETFs related to construction materials, steel, coal, and oil, as these sectors may offer higher returns based on current market conditions [13]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.03% at 3503.78 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext both fell by 0.22%. The Sci-Tech Innovation Board rose by 0.44% [1] - Total trading volume across the three markets was 1.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 173.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears balanced but slightly strong, with nearly 3300 stocks rising, indicating a preference for small-cap stocks over large-cap ones [1] Economic Indicators - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, with nominal growth at 3.9%, remaining stable compared to Q2 of the previous year [2] - Industrial output, exports, and retail sales showed slight changes, with industrial output at 6.4%, exports at 5.9%, and retail sales at 5.0% [2] - The decline in retail sales is attributed to a significant drop in sectors like dining and beverages, indicating a potential impact on consumer sentiment [2] Price Trends - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with the operating rate at its lowest since 2019, and a continuous decline in production since 2022 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize and recover by Q2 2024, suggesting a potential bottoming out of capital returns across various sectors [3] Liquidity Conditions - M1 money supply has seen a significant increase due to strong financing in June, leading to higher demand for current deposits [5] - Social financing grew by 4.2 trillion yuan in June, exceeding expectations, indicating an expansion in credit and economic recovery [5] - The debt repayment pressure on enterprises is easing, suggesting a potential end to the current debt repayment cycle [5] Sector Performance - Traditional industries such as coal, oil, and steel are expected to have greater recovery potential compared to TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors, which have seen a significant reduction in low PB stocks [7] - The current market shows a low percentage of stocks with a PB below 20%, indicating a potential shift in investment focus towards traditional sectors [7] Livestock Industry Insights - The pig farming sector is currently facing a supply-driven price fluctuation, with prices rising from 14.1 yuan/kg to 15.1 yuan/kg before experiencing a slight decline [11] - The supply of breeding sows is increasing, which may exert downward pressure on prices in the near term [12] - Despite short-term price rebounds, the overall supply-demand imbalance suggests continued challenges for the livestock market [12]

Group 1 - The second phase of the liquefied hydrocarbon terminal project by Sinopec officially commenced operations on July 7, 2025, enhancing the storage and transportation capacity of liquefied hydrocarbons in South China [1] - A memorandum of cooperation was signed between Petrochemical Machinery and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company on July 7, 2025, focusing on deepening technical collaboration in the oil and gas equipment sector [1] - Zhejiang Petroleum opened 35 Easy Car Maintenance service stores on July 6, 2025, marking progress in extending its non-oil business into the automotive aftermarket [1] Group 2 - The traditional energy equipment industry is experiencing sustained prosperity and accelerating overseas expansion, supported by historically low U.S. oil inventories and the upcoming peak oil consumption season from June to September [1] - Geopolitical factors such as U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and China-U.S. tariffs are impacting the industry [1] - Chinese oil and gas equipment companies are rapidly expanding overseas, with overseas orders contributing to profitability [1] Group 3 - The new energy equipment sector is witnessing an uptrend in capital expenditure and market conditions for controllable nuclear fusion, with commercialization becoming increasingly feasible [1] - In the past five years, numerous startups in the nuclear fusion industry have emerged, with active investment and financing, leading to significant technological advancements [1] - The domestic nuclear fusion industry has accelerated its bidding process since 2025, with increased capital expenditure expected to drive demand for upstream components and equipment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The IEA and EIA have lowered their global crude oil demand forecasts for 2025 due to weak demand from the US and China, while geopolitical risks continue to support oil prices [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Outlook - IEA predicts a loose supply-demand balance in 2025, but geopolitical risks are prominent [1] - OPEC+ increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in May, which is below planned levels, indicating limited actual production capacity [1] - China's "three oil giants" maintain high capital expenditures, with a planned oil and gas production growth of 1.3% to 5.9% by 2025, reinforcing energy security [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Market Impact - The escalation of the US's involvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict has intensified the situation, leading to fluctuations in Brent and WTI crude oil prices [1] - The risk of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has increased, with a potential closure impacting 34% of global maritime oil exports, resulting in a 72% weekly increase in BDTI shipping rates [1] - The valuation of oil shipping is expected to rise due to these geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3: Industry Performance and Investment Opportunities - The medium to long-term outlook for crude oil supply and demand remains positive, with recovering chemical demand and capacity clearing benefiting leading refining and coal chemical companies' profitability [1] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the oil and gas sector [1] - The index focuses on the oil and natural gas industry, exhibiting high industry concentration and cyclical characteristics, effectively representing the overall market trends of the oil and gas industry chain [1]