资源品交易热度仍在上升！ 航运的价格冲击也比原油更为猛烈。集运指数欧线主力合约两个交易日大幅上涨，累计涨幅已经达到 34.34%，从涨幅上几乎是国内原油、燃料油、甲醇等品种涨幅两倍。目前，油轮（VLCC）日租金已突破20万 美元/天，波斯湾至日本的油轮航线基准费率飙升逾36%。 新能源和黄金大跳水 在海外油运价格飙升的背景下，中国石油、中国海油、中国石化三桶油出现了连续两天涨停，并带动A股市场 申万一级石油石化指数创下近10年新高，在申万一级行业指数中领跑。与此同时，陕西黑猫、大有能源等煤炭 板块也大幅上行，A股市场申万一级煤炭指数创下近4年新高，在申万一级行业指数中居第三位。 国内商品期货市场，在3月2日原油等12品种涨停之后，3月3日欧线航运、原油等10个品种再次涨停。夜间开盘 后，国内SC原油期货主力合约涨13.99%，触及涨停，报641.1元/桶；燃油期货主力合约涨超13%。 而且随着战火升级，"战争溢价"也在品种间出现明显分化，国外天然气和国内航线"溢价"领跑，远超过国际油 价，航运涨超30%，天然气涨超70%。 业内人士提醒，随着事态不断升级，冲突的持续时间、规模和结果均不可预测，投资者应保持理性 ...

每日经济新闻 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数主要覆盖石油、天然气及相关服务领 域，选取涉及勘探、开采、炼制及销售等全产业链业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映能源行业 相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数具有周期性强、受国际油价波动影响大的特征。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 招商证券指出，油气景气度加速发酵，油服装备迎来认知差反转。地缘政治动荡点燃能源市场，油价上 涨催化油服行业景气上行。抛开短期地缘催化，市场对全球能源需求的持续增长与产能瓶颈存在的明显 认知差是油服行业更为关键的长期成长逻辑。需求侧：为对冲全球老旧油田的自然衰减与勘探成本攀 升，深海、深地开采及二次开采需求增加，设备需求更大；同时天然气下游进入历史性扩产周期。供给 侧：国际油服企业资本 ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 石油ETF（561360）业绩比较基准为中证油气产业指数收益率，管理人为国泰基金管理有限公司，基金 经理为苗梦羽，成立（2023-10-23）以来回报为55.51%，近一个月回报为13.58%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2月26日，石油ETF（561360）开盘跌0.58%，报1.550元。石油ETF（561360）重仓股方面，中国石油开 盘跌0.64%，中国海油跌0.77%，中国石化跌0.31%，杰瑞股份跌0.57%，招商轮船跌0.75%，广汇能源跌 0.69%，中远海能涨0.35%，恒力石化跌0.08%，荣盛石化跌0.40%，洲际油气涨0.00%。 ...

石油ETF（561360）业绩比较基准为中证油气产业指数收益率，管理人为国泰基金管理有限公司，基金 经理为苗梦羽，成立（2023-10-23）以来回报为43.80%，近一个月回报为11.02%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月24日，截止午间收盘，石油ETF（561360）涨6.52%，报1.536元，成交额3.01亿元。石油ETF （561360）重仓股方面，中国石油截止午盘涨5.88%，中国海油涨8.20%，中国石化涨3.45%，杰瑞股份 涨5.15%，招商轮船涨9.35%，广汇能源涨6.65%，中远海能涨9.20%，恒力石化涨5.01%，荣盛石化涨 4.66%，洲际油气涨9.92%。 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.96% [1] - Shipbuilding, aerospace, and semiconductors showed the highest gains, while small metals, photovoltaic equipment, and shipping ports collectively retreated [1] ETF Performance - The top five ETFs by increase were: - France CAC40 ETF (513080) up 3.11% - China-Korea Semiconductor ETF (513310) up 2.35% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (589020) up 2.32% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) up 2.21% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) up 2.14% [1] - The top five ETFs by decrease were: - Oil and Gas ETF (561760) down 3.63% - Oil ETF (561360) down 3.60% - Oil and Gas ETF (159309) down 3.58% - Oil and Gas ETF (561570) down 3.50% - Oil ETF (159697) down 3.30% [1] ETF Trading Volume - The top ten ETFs by trading volume included: - A500 ETF Fund (512050) with a volume of 9.776 billion - A500 ETF Huatai-PB (563360) with 7.270 billion - CSI A500 ETF (159338) with 5.846 billion - A500 ETF Southern (159352) with 5.665 billion - Gold ETF (518880) with 4.225 billion - A500 ETF E Fund (159361) with 3.106 billion - Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) with 3.105 billion - Hong Kong Securities ETF E Fund (513090) with 2.785 billion - CSI 500 ETF (510500) with 2.601 billion - Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) with 2.303 billion [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that OPEC+ has delayed production increases, while shale oil production has peaked, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. On the demand side, global macroeconomic improvements and tariff adjustments are stabilizing and increasing oil demand. It is expected that oil prices will remain in a relatively loose range, with stronger bottom support, projecting Brent crude oil prices to be between $55 and $70 [1] Group 2 - In terms of natural gas, the United States may accelerate the construction of natural gas export facilities, which is expected to lower the cost of imported natural gas [1] Group 3 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes publicly traded securities related to oil and gas exploration, extraction, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of these companies. The constituent stocks are primarily large enterprises in the energy sector, characterized by strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil sector and oil prices have garnered significant market attention, with Brent crude oil prices rising over 10% since the beginning of the year, driven by rapid fluctuations and geopolitical factors [1] Group 1: Oil Price Review and Outlook - Oil is considered the lifeblood of industry and a primary source of fuel and chemical raw materials in modern society, with its price fluctuations significantly impacting global geopolitics [1] - Historical oil price surges have often been triggered by supply disruptions and geopolitical conflicts, such as the oil crises in the 1970s, which were marked by military actions and subsequent price hikes [3] - Recent oil price increases have been primarily due to supply constraints, influenced by OPEC's misjudgments and a surge in demand from emerging economies [4] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The oil market has experienced years of volatility, with recent trends showing that geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics are increasingly influencing oil prices [4] - Recent strong performance in oil prices, particularly in late January, has been attributed to various geopolitical events and rising metal prices, which have positively affected overall commodity market sentiment [5] - The current market consensus suggests that the upward potential for oil prices outweighs the downside risk, with many investors viewing the $60 per barrel level as a solid support [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The oil sector is likened to a call option on oil prices, as rising oil prices typically boost the stock prices of companies involved in oil extraction, production, and processing [5] - Investors are increasingly considering the oil sector as a viable investment option due to its relative undervaluation compared to other commodities, as indicated by the historical high gold-to-oil and copper-to-oil ratios [10] - The oil sector is viewed as a potential investment opportunity within the broader commodity cycle, particularly during periods of economic recovery and geopolitical uncertainty [6][7]

从油价走势关联到油气产业，石油产业链主要分为上游的勘探、开采、生产，以及下游的炼化环节，若通过指数对油气产业进行布局，产业链的上中下 游其实都会涉及到。整体来看，当下布局石油板块的股票，相当于买入油价的看涨期权。原因在于，无论是上游的开采环节，还是炼化、油服设备、油 运等领域，都会受到油价上涨的整体情绪提振，市场对各环节的未来表现也会形成向好预期。从康波周期来看，正如刚才所说，在这一商品大周期中， 原油价格相对滞涨，整个油气产业都在紧盯油价的上行趋势，筹备进一步的产业投资，同时对后续盈利改善抱有期待。此外，无论是投资者还是产业 端，都对原油供给过剩的叙事真实性存有一定怀疑，这也让石油产业链的上中下游都显现出一定的投资机会。 再看中证油气产业指数的历史表现，该指数自基日以来，业绩表现跑赢市场主流同类指数，尤其在行业景气上行周期，具备较强的上涨弹性。2008年、 2014年的行业周期中，该指数的上行弹性均优于其他同类指数，能为投资者带来更好的投资体验。需要注意的是，指数的过往业绩不代表未来表现，投 资者需谨慎选择投资标的。 | 指数代码 | 指数简称 | 近五年 | 近三年 | 近一年 | | --- | --- ...

近期，国际油价在美伊紧张局势反复等多重因素交织下呈现波动，油价短期逻辑已进入地缘溢价主导。油价震动中，资金抢筹布局石油板块，聚焦全产业链 工具石油ETF（561360）涨超2%，近20日吸金超20亿元。 短期逻辑：地缘溢价主导，油价易涨难跌 短期油价已脱离单纯的基本面定价，进入"地缘消息驱动"模式。市场交易的不是当下的库存，而是未来供应中断的概率。任何风吹草动都可能引发油价脉冲 式上行。 当前油价的定价权，已阶段性让渡给地缘政治。申银万国将其概括为"地缘主导、基本面托底"。这意味着两重含义： 第一，上行风险远大于下行风险。如果美伊发生任何形式的摩擦，或霍尔木兹海峡运输受到实质性干扰，油价将迅速突破当前区间。即使事件不落地，仅仅 是"谈判可能破裂"的消息，就足以驱动油价单日暴涨。 综上，原油市场的供需天平正在从"弱平衡"向"紧平衡"倾斜。过剩叙事正在被库存数据证伪，市场定价权正从看空者向看多者转移。 中长期逻辑：从"周期品"向"战略资产"的价值重估 第二，传统的供需分析框架暂时失效。当前市场关心的不是OECD库存是高是低，也不是中国需求恢复了几成，而是"伊朗的铀浓缩进度""美军在波斯湾的 部署密度""委内瑞拉总 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Oil ETF (561360), which rose by 1.24% to 1.473 yuan with a trading volume of 177 million yuan as of the midday close [1] - Major holdings in the Oil ETF include China National Petroleum, which increased by 0.56%, China National Offshore Oil Corporation up by 0.52%, and Sinopec up by 0.31% [1] - The Oil ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index return, managed by Guotai Fund Management Company, with a return of 45.33% since its establishment on October 23, 2023, and a return of 14.42% over the past month [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances within the ETF include Henglian Petrochemical rising by 6.29%, Rongsheng Petrochemical increasing by 4.38%, and Intercontinental Oil and Gas up by 3.61%, while China Merchants Energy fell by 1.54% and COSCO Shipping Energy dropped by 0.53% [1]