Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have entered a new upward trend since late November, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-side concerns, with expectations of continued support through 2026 [1] Supply Side Summary - Over 3 million tons of smelting capacity is expected to be added in 2025-2026, outpacing copper mine supply growth, which will continue to dominate refined copper supply [2] - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate is currently at -42.86 USD/ton, indicating ongoing tightness in copper mine supply [2] - Major new copper mine projects expected to contribute to supply include the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine and the Mirador Phase II project, with a projected increase of 540,000 tons in global copper mine supply by 2026 [2] - The next significant release of copper mine capacity is not expected until 2028, maintaining a tight supply situation for copper concentrates through 2026 [2] Demand Side Summary - High copper prices have led to a decline in operating rates for refined copper products, with a notable increase in the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper, highlighting a substitution effect [3] - Despite short-term demand suppression, there is no significant pessimism in the market, as copper plays a crucial role in the global transition to green energy and electrification [3] - The demand for copper is shifting from traditional sectors to new energy systems, with significant growth expected in global grid investment and data centers, projected to increase by 20% annually from 2026 to 2028 [3] - The global energy storage market is anticipated to see explosive growth starting in 2025, further driving copper demand [3] Inventory Summary - Since 2025, total global copper inventory has increased significantly, with notable accumulations in COMEX and a structural shortage in non-US regions due to expectations of US copper tariffs [4] - The macroeconomic environment, including a pressured US dollar and stable growth in the Chinese economy, is providing support for the copper market [4] - While short-term demand is suppressed, the overall supply pressure is easing, and the construction of new energy systems is expected to drive copper demand growth, leading to a slight reduction in copper inventory by 2026 [4]