从宏观面来看，美元指数承压以及中国经济稳定增长为铜市提供支撑。美联储12月如期降息，美国财政 赤字问题与美联储主席换届预计将持续施压美元指数。 综合来看，短期现货需求受到抑制，铜价上涨趋势出现波折，但考虑到铜矿供应紧张，精铜生产放缓， 供应端压力减轻，而在全球新型电力系统建设提速背景下，铜需求增长可期，2026年铜市有望小幅去 库。美国关税预期将持续"虹吸"全球铜库存，从而将造成非美地区出现铜库存结构性短缺。基本面支撑 较强，叠加全球流动性宽松提供偏多宏观氛围，中期继续看涨。（作者单位：建信期货） 编辑：郭洲洋 自11月下旬以来，铜价开启了新一轮上涨趋势。本轮涨势先是由美联储12月降息预期升温开始，铜价逐 渐止跌企稳。随后，2026年铜精矿长单谈判以及精铜长单溢价相关消息传出，2026年中国冶炼厂减产预 期以及2026年精铜进口长单签单量下降，令市场对2026年供应端紧张的担忧加剧，从而推动沪铜价格突 破9万元／吨。12月初LME仓单注销比例陡增至35%，LME去库预期进一步推动了铜价上涨。然而，需 求端明显受到高铜价抑制，国内现货采购情绪持续下降，社库去化进程频繁被打断，从而使得铜价上涨 趋势不稳。不过分析 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that copper prices are experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 88,700 yuan, the highest since late May of the previous year, and closing up by 1.73% [1] - Recent macroeconomic factors have positively influenced copper demand, including the approval of the domestic "14th Five-Year Plan," which has boosted market confidence, and preliminary agreements in the US-China trade negotiations [1] - The lower-than-expected CPI increase in the US for September has intensified market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to an anticipated increase in overseas liquidity and an overall warmer market atmosphere [1] Group 2 - Despite high prices, demand in October has been average; however, as of last Thursday, domestic refined copper social inventories have stopped accumulating [2] - According to Jinrui Futures, the recent marginal improvement in macroeconomic conditions is the main driver for copper prices, which are expected to see an increase in positions and may experience strong fluctuations in the short term [2] - Continuous attention is required on macroeconomic changes, as the fundamental reality remains weak, limiting the support for copper prices [2]

【沥青】 | 《八》 国经期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月29日 | | 原油 | な女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 立☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | なな女 | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 下半年以来全球原油库存去化1.9%、成品油库存增加1.4%、总体石油库存自一、二季度分别增加1.9%、2.8%后下降 0.7%，关注OPEC+产量陆续回归后平衡表宽松预期能否持续兑现。周日欧美达成15%对等关税协议,较美国此前威胁 的30%减半，本周在瑞典举行的中美经贸谈判亦存在8月12日豁免到期后进一步延续90天的预期,宏观面走向存在利 好预期。我们此前预估的8月末、9月初地续博弈窗口亦随着特朗普缩 ...