来源：首席经济学家论坛 洪灏系莲华资管首席投资官，中国首席经济学家论坛理 1月11日，著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灝，在2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会中，发表了以"展 望2026，持而盈之"为题的演讲。 洪灝在演讲中指出，美联储于1月继续降息是大概率事件。 他认为，当前美国短端流动性趋于紧张， 回购利率甚至能高于基准利率，迫使美联储持续扩表并降息。 与此同时，他提出美国远期通胀预期难以回落； 如果美联储在通胀预期仍高时坚持降息，将削弱美元信用，推动贵金属价格上涨。 从趋势线来看，黄金处于一个相对来说公允的估值，4500左右。 但是，在新的信用体系里，黄金是一切估值的"锚"。 至于目标价，洪灝表示"杯子有多深，目标就有多高"，白银显然也并没有走完，这与他此前的观点也完 全一致。 虽然在银价冲上80美元时，他曾提示可以阶段性获利了结，但仍然看好其中期上涨空间，事实上，白银 在此后也出现不小的价格波动。具体可点此查看 他的全球流动性指标模型显示，全球流动性条件在不断上升，而流动性指标领先基本面变化6-12个月。 洪灝强调，在全球流动性持续宽松的背景下，以黄金为"锚"的资产类别将普遍受益。 同时，他判断2026 ...

Market Performance - The three major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.35% and 1.08% respectively [1] - Trading volume decreased, with the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets falling below 2 trillion yuan, a reduction of 121.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Investment Sentiment - Many institutions recommend holding stocks during the upcoming long nine-day Spring Festival holiday, citing historical trends where trading activity typically declines before the holiday but rebounds significantly afterward [3] - Historical data indicates that the average trading volume in the week following the Spring Festival increases by 22.3% compared to the week before, with an 81% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising by an average of 1.8% in the week prior to the holiday [3] Private Equity Insights - A survey by Private Equity Network shows that 62.16% of private equity firms prefer to hold heavy or full positions during the holiday, believing that market fluctuations will not alter structural opportunities [3] - 69.23% of private equity firms are optimistic about the post-holiday market, expecting stabilization and a potential upward trend [4] Market Outlook - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the spring market may strengthen this year due to favorable policy expectations and trends in capital allocation towards equity assets [5] - China Galaxy Securities anticipates that after the holiday, market focus will shift back to growth sectors with clear performance catalysts, predicting a more moderate and stable upward trend in the market [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights a paradox in the non-ferrous metals sector where despite a significant bull market, very few public funds have captured the top-performing stocks [1][2] - The analysis indicates that institutional investors are generally avoiding stocks with historical governance issues or high uncertainty, even if market expectations are strong [2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Holdings - Some non-ferrous metal stocks have seen remarkable price increases, with Zhaojin Gold rising over 540% and Xiaocheng Technology increasing over 362% since 2025 [2] - As of the end of 2025, Zhaojin Gold was held by only 15 funds, Xiaocheng Technology by 3 funds, and Hunan Silver by just 1 fund, indicating a lack of institutional interest in these high-performing stocks [2][4] Group 2: Institutional Investment Behavior - Public funds are constrained by strict compliance frameworks and risk management systems, leading to cautious investment decisions regarding companies with historical flaws or high operational uncertainty [3][4] - The preference for larger, more stable companies is evident, as only 17 non-ferrous stocks are held by over 100 funds, primarily those with market capitalizations exceeding 50 billion [4][5] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The current non-ferrous metal market is supported by a multi-dimensional logic, including global liquidity easing and anticipated continued monetary and fiscal stimulus [6][8] - Supply constraints and new demand from sectors like AI and energy transition are focal points for institutional investors, with copper, gold, and aluminum identified as key investment directions [8][9]

贵FOMO 贵贵贵 贵贵贵贵贵 2026/02/02 作者：刘诗瑶 从业资格证号：F3041949 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 观点小结 ◼ 上周，受贝森特重申强美元立场及鹰派色彩明显的凯文·沃什获提名为美联储主席等消息影响，美元指数走强，市场担忧全球流动性 宽松的交易逻辑生变，引发贵金属在三个交易日内出现集中抛售。伦敦现货黄金下跌近20%，白银跌幅更高达40%，全球主要股市亦普 遍承压。 ◼ 我们认为，此次贵金属的剧烈回调，本质上源于此前快速上涨阶段积累的结构脆弱性——无论是价格短期涨幅与速度、看涨期权波动 率的高溢价，还是多项技术指标揭示的超买状态，均早已提示市场处于高波动、高风险的不稳定格局。暴涨与急跌实为一枚硬币的两 面，盈亏同源，市场在情绪推动下往往如履薄冰。 ◼ 然而，全球流动性宽松的逻辑未必就此逆转，"贬值交易"的宏观主题也难以轻易进入逆风期。一个重要原因在于：即便沃什在货币 政策上偏鹰，其在资产负债表层面的操作空间实际上受到财政现实的制约。若其推动缩表，私人部门将被迫吸收更多长期债券，从而 推高期限溢价、抬升长端收益率， ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market faced pressure in Q4 2025 but showed significant strength entering 2026, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 58 billion yuan [1] - In 2025, cumulative net inflows from southbound funds reached 1.3 trillion yuan, the highest since the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect programs [1] - As of January 29, 2026, the Hang Seng Index had risen by 9.12% year-to-date, ranking among the top global indices [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's fund manager noted that the valuation of core technology assets in the Hong Kong stock market has improved following a value reassessment in 2025, indicating high cost-effectiveness for investment [2] - The outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of further recovery in corporate earnings driven by macro policies and liquidity improvements [2] - The Hong Kong stock market is still considered undervalued compared to U.S. and Japanese markets, presenting significant potential for valuation recovery [2] Group 3 - HSBC Jintrust Fund anticipates a positive performance for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, supported by reduced overseas uncertainties and expected recovery in corporate earnings [3] - The overall earnings growth for the Hong Kong market is projected to achieve high single-digit growth in 2026, with the Hang Seng Technology sector potentially reaching double-digit growth [3] - The Hong Kong market demonstrates strong attractiveness in terms of both valuation and earnings growth compared to global markets [3]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 很多投资者都希望多元化配置自己的资金，想要覆盖人民币资产和外币资产，也想要覆盖股票资产和债券类资产。 美元债就是其中的重要一环，那么美元债券基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，系统性地介绍了美元债券基金的投资知识。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 美元债 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ 2024年9月以来A股港股涨幅领先 全球，原因是啥? 从2 024年9月美联储本轮首次降息以 来， A股港股上涨50%-60%，比同期的 全球股票指数上涨多近1倍。 背后主要是两个因素驱动。 (1) 美元利率、汇率下降周期，会让全 球流动性变得充裕，有利于风险资产的 估值提升。 部分金融机构预计2026年美元还是在降 息周期。2027年不一定，看到时候的情 况了。 所以2024年9月以来，A股港股估值大幅 提言。 同时全球很多中小国家，例如韩国、日 本、欧洲南美洲部分国家，股市也大幅 上涨。 白银、以及一些小体量的有色金属也大 帽上涨。 不同风险资产基本面不同，但是都出现 了估值大幅提高，也跟全球流动性宽松 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Federal Reserve's outlook on the U.S. economy is slightly optimistic, leading to no immediate plans for short-term interest rate cuts, with future cuts depending on economic data performance [1] - The expectation is that, given the current employment situation in the U.S. and the gradual decline in inflation, there is still room for interest rate cuts, with a relatively high chance of cuts occurring mid-year [1] - The global stock market is anticipated to perform well in the medium to long term due to easing global liquidity as most major central banks are in a rate-cutting cycle amid declining global inflation [1] Group 2 - Regarding gold, the article highlights that demand driven by global central bank purchases and risk-hedging factors provides long-term allocation value, with expectations for gold prices to trend upward in the medium to long term, potentially reaching new highs, although volatility is expected to increase significantly [1]

在笔者看来，本轮有色金属的上涨行情并非偶然，背后是宏观环境、供需格局和产业变革三重力量的共 同推动。 第三，有色金属战略属性的提升推动板块迎来价值重估。在全球科技竞争与产业升级浪潮中，稀土永 磁、高温合金、第三代半导体材料等有色新材料，已成为高端制造与国防科技的关键支撑，其战略价值 远超传统大宗商品范畴。这种战略属性不仅赋予有色金属穿越传统周期的能力，更使其成为各国产业链 安全布局的核心环节。 第一，全球流动性宽松是本轮有色金属行情的核心宏观推手。从国际层面来看，多数有色金属以美元计 价，流动性释放推动美元指数下行，提升非美元持有者的购买力，为金属价格提供了估值支撑。黄金作 为抗通胀保值资产成为资金首选，白银因兼具工业属性补涨突出。 整体来看，当前支撑有色金属行情的三重核心动力仍在持续发力，多重因素叠加下，有色金属板块的行 情韧性或将持续。但同时也需注意，市场短期涨幅过大或引发阶段性调整，且全球经济复苏节奏、地缘 政治变化等因素仍存不确定性。对于市场参与者而言，与其追逐短期涨幅，不如聚焦供需基本面与产业 发展趋势，把握好行业上行周期的波动节奏。 与此同时，国内流动性优化进一步强化行情韧性。2026年开年以来， ...

1. Report Summary - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2] - The strategy views and investment logics in the report are based on publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week. Closing price data is from last Friday, and weekly changes are compared with the previous Friday's closing price [2] 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - Silver closed at 24965.00 with a 11.04% weekly increase; PTA at 5448.00 with an 8.57% increase; Gold at 1115.64 with a 7.74% increase; Ethylene glycol at 3997.00 with a 5.30% increase; Palm oil at 8910.00 with a 2.72% increase; Methanol at 2298.00 with a 2.64% increase; PVC at 4921.00 with a 2.46% increase; Aluminum at 24290.00 with a 1.53% increase; Polysilicon at 50720.00 with a 1.04% increase; Soybean meal at 2751.00 with a 0.88% increase; Corn at 2300.00 with a 0.83% increase; Crude oil at 441.90 with a 0.71% increase; Copper at 101340.00 with a 0.57% increase [3] - Rebar closed at 3142.00 with a - 0.66% change; Coking coal at 1157.00 with a - 1.20% change; Iron ore at 795.00 with a - 2.09% change; Live pigs at 11565.00 with a - 3.46% change; Glass at 1064.00 with a - 3.54% change [3] 2.2 A - shares - CSI 500 closed at 8590.17 with a 4.34% weekly increase; CSI 300 at 4702.50 with a - 0.62% change; SSE 50 at 3032.19 with a - 1.54% change [3] 2.3 Overseas Stock Markets - NASDAQ Composite closed at 23501.24 with a - 0.06% change; Nikkei 225 at 53846.87 with a - 0.17% change; S&P 500 at 6915.61 with a - 0.35% change; Hang Seng Index at 26749.51 with a - 0.36% change; FTSE 100 at 10143.44 with a - 0.90% change; France CAC40 at 8143.05 with a - 1.40% change [3] 2.4 Bonds - China's 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.60 with a - 1.01bp change; 10 - year at 1.83 with a - 1.12bp change; 2 - year at 1.39 with a - 1.19bp change [3] 2.5 Foreign Exchange - Euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.18 with a 1.97% increase; US dollar central parity rate was 6.99 with a - 0.21% change; US dollar index was 97.51 with a - 1.88% change [3] 3. Commodity Views Summary 3.1 Macro - finance Sector 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: 3 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logics: Global liquidity is loose; Small and medium - cap indexes receive capital inflows; The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy; China's GDP in 2025 grew by 5% year - on - year [4] - Bearish logics: Regulators signal to cool market sentiment; Near - month contracts of stock index futures have a large premium; Market differentiation intensifies; Corporate profit recovery expectations are not strong [4] 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logics: Risk - aversion sentiment rises; Domestic demand is insufficient; Allocation funds enter the market; The central bank maintains a loose liquidity environment [4] - Bearish logics: Concerns about long - term bond supply remain; The stock - bond seesaw effect may divert funds; The rebound of treasury bonds has partially realized positive factors; The "re - inflation" expectation has improved [4] 3.2 Energy Sector (Crude Oil) - Strategy views: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logics: US military deployment in the Middle East; Disruption at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield; Geopolitical events; Cold snap in Europe and America [5] - Bearish logics: Venezuela's export shift; Potential quick reversal of risk premium; High production from non - OPEC countries; High OECD oil inventories [5] 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector (Palm Oil) - Strategy views: 2 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logics: India's peak consumption season; Higher crude oil prices; Decreased production in Malaysia; Reduced domestic port inventory [5] - Bearish logics: High inventory in Malaysia; High domestic inventory; Indonesia's suspension of the B50 plan; Disadvantages in substitution [5] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector (Aluminum) - Strategy views: 2 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logics: Overseas supply disruptions; Capital inflows; Long - term demand expectations; Policy support [6] - Bearish logics: Rising domestic daily production; High prices suppressing demand; Seasonal consumption decline; Reduced speculative buying [6] 3.5 Chemical Industry Sector (PTA) - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logics: Capital inflows; Low inventory pressure of polyester products; Expected improvement in supply - demand and profit [6] - Bearish logics: Reduced production by polyester factories; High processing fees; Low profits of polyester products; Expected inventory build - up [6] 3.6 Precious Metals (Gold) - Strategy views: 3 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logics: Geopolitical risks; Central bank gold purchases; Expectations of a dovish Fed pause; Potential capital inflow into ETFs [7] - Bearish logics: Strong US economy; Technical overbought pressure; Potential "hawkish pause" signal from the Fed [7] 3.7 Black Sector (Coking Coal) - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logics: Winter storage demand; Expected supply contraction; Import disruptions; Overall market sentiment [7] - Bearish logics: Fast import of Mongolian coal; Weak demand from steel enterprises; Declining blast furnace operating rate; Lack of new upward drivers [7]

中金公司张峻栋认为，美日国债风暴可能倒逼美国联储开启YCC，全球流动性宽松预期增强。目 前美元贬值周期将利好人民币兑美元汇率，同时助推中国资产的吸引力。资本市场结构性机会最 显著，建议布局A股和港股，尤其是全球资金低配的中国市场；此外，有色金属在弱美元周期中 表现或相对突出。 2.万家基金：通缩逆转或带来市场风格切换 【 摘要 】中金公司张峻栋认为，美日国债风暴可能倒逼美国联储开启YCC，助推中国资产的吸 引力。万家基金叶勇指出，2026年有望走出通缩格局，PPI转正将促资产价格回升和顺周期板块 回暖。 一、焦点锐评 1．中际旭创成公募基金第一大重仓股 公募基金2025年四季报披露收官。Wind数据显示，中际旭创超越宁德时代成为公募基金第一大市 值重仓股，新易盛居第三。当季，公募基金加大了对焦电子、电力设备等核心赛道布局。截至 2025年底，公募基金市场总规模接近37万亿元，续创历史新高。 【解读】银河证券杨超分析称，2025年第四季度末，股票仓位环比下降1.40个百分点至84.22%， 依然处于2005年以来历史高位水平。其中，A股在资产配置中的占比延续上行，上升0.66个百分 点至72.18%。整体来看， ...