8月22号在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔发表了自己的告别演讲，由于他这是最后一 次参加如此高规格的会议，展现自身的影响力。市场普遍认为在经历了特朗普几番羞辱之后，他很有可 能借助这个场合去为自己的不降息鹰派立场辩护。然而万万没有想到鲍威尔临阵转向，说出就当前的形 势综合去看，可能需要我们调整政策立场，也就是美联储可以降息了，鲍威尔转鸽，美联储变脸，一夜 之间全球也就进入了流动性宽松共振的时刻。 ...

2025 年 08 月 25 日 投资策略 系好安全带，车速会很快 相关研究报告 <<调整基石，新高可期>>--2025-08- 11 <<破云>>--2025-07-29 <<窄门 2>>--2025-07-25 <<窄门 1>>--2025-07-11 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：徐梓铭 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525050001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 当前 A 股的定价因子是分母端的流动性与风偏，而非分子端的盈利。 7 月经济数据反映出分子端的弱基本面现实。工业增加值、社零以及地产 投资较 6 月进一步下降，体现出生产、消费、投资的走弱；社融与信贷分 化，其中社融增长主要由政府债券支撑，居民与企业中长期贷款大幅下滑， 反映出居民与企业需求偏弱，需求主要由政府端支持。我们认为资金流入 →指数上涨→赚钱效应⬆→风偏⬆的正反馈循环是 A 股持续上涨的主因，短 期内 A 股仍将延续 ...

消息面上，8月23日，国家发展改革委、市场监管总局、国家网信办联合起草的《互联网平台价格行为 规则（征求意见稿）》对外公开征求意见，征求意见时间为1个月。《行为规则》共七章30条，重点围 绕"经营者自主定价""经营者价格标示行为""经营者价格竞争行为""消费者价格权益保护"等内容，提出 了细致的规范要求。 浙商证券（601878）指出，恒生科技指数本轮行情中表现明显落后，除了"外卖大战"影响盈利预期之 外，港元汇率持续处于弱方保证导致香港金管局持续抽水或也是重要原因。从数据上看，为稳定汇率， 6 月末以来金管局持续收水，而当前香港银行间流动性已基本回归正常水平，且港元汇率已经显著升 值，未来流动性进一步边际紧缩的空间或有限。此外，杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔 表示"在政策仍处于紧缩区间的情况下，基准前景与风险平衡的变化可能需要我们调整政策"，释放鸽派 信号，全球流动性宽松预期有望进一步强化港股的流动性改善逻辑，近期表现偏弱的恒生科技指数或存 在补涨空间。 科网股早盘集体走高，带动恒生科技指数盘中涨超3%。截至发稿，百度集团-SW(09888)涨5.37%，报 90.25港元；阿里巴巴-W(099 ...

21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 8月21日至23日，全球央行年会在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话备受关注。 目前货币市场交易员预期，美联储在今年9月降息25个基点的概率达到80%。 会议前夕，投资者观望情绪愈加浓厚，亚太市场涨跌不一。东南亚股市多数下跌。泰国SET指数周跌 0.48%，报1253.39点；越南胡志明指数周涨1.04%，报1647.03点；印尼雅加达综合指数（JKSE）周跌 0.5%，报7858.85点；新加坡海峡指数周涨0.53%，报4253.02点；马来西亚吉隆坡综合指数周涨1.34%， 报1597.47点；菲律宾马尼拉指数周跌0.53%，报6281.58点。 亚太其他主要股指同样下跌，日经225指数周跌1.72%或745.02点，报42633.29点；韩国KOSPI指数周跌 1.76%，报3168.73点；澳大利亚S&P/ASX200指数周涨0.32%，报8967.4点。 国际金融论坛学术委员、上海外国语大学金融创新与发展研究中心主任章玉贵向21世纪经济报道记者表 示，上周亚太股市震荡与市场交易主体的观望情绪偏浓存在一定关系，市场交易员押注美联储有极大概 率在9月启动降息。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing 0.46% and closing below 3700 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.87% and 1.08% respectively [1] - The total market turnover reached 23062.83 billion yuan, ranking as the tenth highest single-day turnover since the "924" market [1] - A total of 735 stocks rose, while 4648 stocks fell, indicating a median decline of 2.06% in stock performance, reflecting poor profit-making conditions [1] Technical Analysis - The market has shown a significant volume of trading, with a notable pattern of rising and then sharply retreating, suggesting a potential adjustment phase [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has exhibited a top divergence on the 30-minute chart, necessitating close observation of the daily K-line for signs of a small span top divergence, which could indicate a higher probability of market consolidation or pullback [2] - The support level for the Shanghai Composite Index is identified around 3550 points, which corresponds to the small wave bottom of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices on August 4 [3] Sector Performance - The financial sector led the market today, with the insurance sector showing the highest gains, followed by banking and securities [4] - Recent news indicated that China Ping An has made a significant investment in China Pacific Insurance, marking a rare instance of one insurance company acquiring another [4] - The securities and insurance sectors are expected to perform strongly during bull market phases, while in non-mainstream phases, they may either follow the market trend or experience slow upward movements [4] AI Hardware Sector - The AI hardware sector saw adjustments today, particularly in the PCB and computing power export segments, which experienced significant declines [7] - Recent news regarding the installation of tracking devices in chip shipments by the U.S. and rumors related to Nvidia's Rubin have contributed to market volatility [7] - Despite short-term adjustments, the AI hardware sector is viewed positively in the medium term, driven by high growth in certain sub-industries and the ongoing technological revolution in artificial intelligence [8] Robotics and Military Sector - The humanoid robotics sector has shown signs of activity after a period of stagnation since March, although a robust market rally may require more time [9] - The military trade concept sector faced a decline of 3.33%, with other military-related sectors also experiencing drops of over 2% [9] - Historical patterns suggest that military stocks may face profit-taking as the September 3 military parade approaches, warranting caution in this sector [9] News Highlights - Apple is reportedly preparing to launch several robots and redesigned smart home devices, with a desktop robot planned for release in 2027 [10] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association has initiated a proposal to maintain fair competition in the energy storage industry, with 152 companies participating [10] Conclusion - The market is currently under observation for potential small span top divergences in the Shanghai Composite Index, which could lead to consolidation or pullback, although the adjustment space is expected to be limited [10] - Focus on sectors such as artificial intelligence, smart driving, commercial aerospace, humanoid robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and solid-state batteries is recommended, as these are anticipated to align with emerging industry trends [10]

Core Viewpoint - Global monetary growth is increasing, and a depreciating US dollar indicates continued global financial liquidity easing [1] Group 1: Global Monetary Trends - The US financial deregulation, continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, expansion of stablecoins, adjustments in government bond durations, and fiscal expansions in many countries are likely to further enhance global monetary growth [1] - Global liquidity remains relatively loose, with the US dollar index having further downward potential [1] Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - The easing of global liquidity suggests a demand for increased asset allocation, particularly flowing into China and the offshore market in Hong Kong [1] - Despite significant rebounds earlier this year, the valuation levels of Chinese assets remain relatively undervalued from a PB ROE perspective, indicating potential value [1] - The Chinese yuan is considered undervalued, with potential for further appreciation, which may enhance the attractiveness of the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Key sectors in the Hong Kong market include: - Technology and Internet: Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) [1] - Consumer Leaders: Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) [1] - Pharmaceutical Leaders: Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, with significant gains in various stocks and a notable increase in capital inflow into the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF [1][2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) has seen a cumulative increase of nearly 10% since July and over 42% year-to-date, indicating robust investor interest and market confidence [1] - Recent domestic mid-to-long-term reform policies are expected to improve macroeconomic conditions and corporate profit expectations, which will enhance long-term confidence in the Chinese capital market [1] Group 2 - Global liquidity easing has led to increased demand for investment in the Hong Kong market, particularly after a valuation recovery earlier this year [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index account for 67.23% of the index, with significant contributions from major companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has risen nearly 45% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index, which has increased by 24% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the continuous depreciation of the US dollar will reshape the premium relationship between A-shares and H-shares, creating differentiated investment opportunities for investors [1] - UBS predicts that a 10% decline in the DXY dollar index could lead to a 9% excess return for emerging markets, benefiting A-shares as part of this market [1][5] - The report indicates that the AH premium has a high positive correlation of 0.83 with the dollar index over the past 15 years, suggesting that H-shares may outperform A-shares in a weak dollar environment [1][13][15] Group 2 - UBS forecasts that the US dollar will continue to weaken until 2025, citing structural reasons such as the expansion of US external debt from 9% of GDP in 2005 to 88% currently [2] - The report highlights that the phenomenon of "overholding" the dollar, where the US accounts for only 16% of global trade but the dollar constitutes 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, could lead to significant dollar sell-offs [2] - The report also notes that the historical data shows that when the RMB appreciates against the dollar, the CSI 300 index typically rises, providing support for A-shares in a weak dollar environment [9] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the weak dollar is a positive factor for global stock markets, with emerging markets likely being the biggest winners [5] - It is noted that foreign investors held 2.97 trillion RMB in A-shares as of the end of Q1 2025, accounting for only 3.4% of the total market capitalization [10] - Industries with high exposure to dollar-denominated debt, such as home appliances, transportation, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, are expected to benefit more from the dollar's weakness [12] Group 4 - The report indicates that the AH premium may remain at mid-term low levels in the second half of 2025 unless there is a significant liquidity improvement in the A-share market [18] - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from southbound funds reached 684.2 billion RMB, primarily flowing into Chinese internet giants, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, marking a 101% year-on-year increase [16] - The report suggests that H-shares may offer better investment opportunities in a weak dollar and globally loose liquidity environment, particularly in sectors benefiting from southbound fund inflows [18]

周五A股市场出现了分化态势。 其中，前期领航的银行股出现盘中冲高受阻后回落的态势，上证综指、上证50指数等股指也有所回落。 但，算力股、有色金属股大力扬升，深证成指、创业板指反复逞强。看来，当前A股较为活跃的动量资 金正在积极调仓，从而带来结构性的新机会。 全球流动性宽松预期渐趋强烈 调仓中催生新结构性机会 由此可见，短线A股市场所处的环境较前期有了一定程度的转变，一方面是全球流动性开始宽松，这对 全球商品价格、权益资产均会带来积极的推动力，就如同前文提及的国际铜价回升、A股资源股走高。 另一方面则是美联储降息预期升温，对整个科技主线也有着较为积极的推动力，这可能也是美股纳斯达 克指数创新高，A股算力股在近期持续复苏、回升的推力。主要是因为美元降息会使得科技创新的资金 成本降低，进而驱动科技创新的进度。历史也多次证实且未来还会证实，低美元利率对创新药等科创产 业方向有着积极的推动力。所以，随着近期美元降息预期的升温，创新药、算力等科技创新领域会再度 成为各路资金竞相加仓的方向。 理解这一点，就可以理解近期A股动量资金开始调仓的逻辑，因为在周四，热门的券商股冲高受阻，在 周五，去年以来一直是强势主线的银行股冲高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the 中证500质量成长指数 (CSI 500 Quality Growth Index) has shown positive performance, with notable increases in several constituent stocks, indicating a favorable market trend for quality growth assets [1][2] - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF has experienced significant growth in both scale and shares, with an increase of 313.01 million yuan in scale and 800.00 million shares in the past month, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [1][2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index account for 24.07% of the index, highlighting the concentration of investment in high-performing companies [2] Group 2 - Global liquidity easing is expected to benefit risk assets, particularly non-US assets that have been under pressure due to a strong US dollar in recent years, making A-shares attractive from a global perspective [2] - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index selects 100 companies with high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow from the CSI 500 Index, providing diverse investment options for investors [2] - The performance of individual stocks within the index varies, with notable increases in stocks like 水晶光电 (Crystal Optoelectronics) and 胜宏科技 (Victory Technology), while some stocks like 赤峰黄金 (Chifeng Gold) and 九号公司 (Ninebot) have seen declines [4]