全球旧秩序
Search documents
中信建投:科技立国的美国模式两个弊端逐步显露 科技垄断褪色,外部供应链脆弱
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-02 12:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. technology-driven model is facing two significant drawbacks: the fading of tech monopolies and the fragility of external supply chains, leading to a restructuring of the global framework [1][6][48] - The elasticity of the technology and non-ferrous metal market can be found in the historical level of the Japanese bond yield spread, indicating that loose liquidity cannot be absorbed by bonds, directing funds towards four asset classes: gold, structurally favorable assets like copper, Chinese assets, and technology [1][12][64] - The sustainability of the technology and non-ferrous metal market will end with a rebound in global inflation expectations, which is an inevitable result of the U.S. "impossible trinity" and a moment of retreat from global super liquidity [1][64] Group 2 - The market's price fluctuations reflect opinions on the new Federal Reserve chair candidate, focusing on whether the technology and non-ferrous metal market will end and under what circumstances [2][4] - A significant paradigm shift is occurring in the underlying macro logic, which is detached from conventional cycles and is a reason for the sustained strength of technology and non-ferrous metals in recent years [2][4] - The performance of traditional macro assets like gold, currency, and bonds has been particularly unique over the past two years, indicating a need for macro researchers to broaden their perspectives [2][4] Group 3 - The "dislocation" surge in precious metals, with annual gains in gold and silver reaching historical highs, is not solely explained by liquidity [4][5] - The U.S. credit cracks and the strong performance of technology have led to a decline in the dollar, which is historically rare [4][5] - The reversal of the 30-year low trend in Japanese bonds is difficult to control, and while inflation is expected to rise, the yen's exchange rate signals a contrasting situation [4][5] Group 4 - The cracks in the dollar indicate a loosening of the old international order determined by the U.S. model, suggesting that a super cycle is upon us, creating significant investment opportunities [5][6] - The U.S. model, established in the 1980s, has led to a decline in manufacturing and a continuous slide of the middle class, resulting in a focus on external supply chain security and increasing social stratification [6][30] - The U.S. faces a dilemma where it cannot simultaneously maintain tech hegemony, social stability, and low inflation, creating an "impossible trinity" [8][35][41] Group 5 - The transition from the old to the new order will see the U.S. relying heavily on fiscal and monetary measures, with inflation expectations being the fundamental reason for the inability to suppress long-term U.S. Treasury yields [10][56] - In this context, four asset classes will enjoy rare liquidity support: gold, scarce physical assets like copper, assets relatively independent of the Western credit system, and technology [11][12][58] - The simultaneous decline of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, along with the rise of non-ferrous metals and technology, indicates a significant shift in the global order [60][61]