大家新年好啊，今天是周五，港股已经开盘，因此上来和大伙儿聊几句，然后休息两天，等下周一（初七）港股再开盘的晚上，继续完整地聊一 下海外等全球大类资产，在假期的表现，帮大家在A股开盘前热个身。 今天分几个点哈，聊到哪儿算哪儿。 一、春晚的一些想法。 我觉得吐槽是没啥意义的，能看到一些事物发展的本质，才是有价值的。 1、本届春晚的 "含科量" 巨高，炒股的自然都知道，这和对A股提高"含科量"的政策目标，是一脉相承的，显然是自上而下的传导，因为很多工 作，靠春晚导演组，是协调不到的。 2、虽然很多人会揶揄春晚，拿部分地区春晚收视率不高抬杠，但毫无疑问，在传统媒介逐渐凋敝（从大家都集中看几家电视台，变成了人人刷 不同的短视频），人民群众的爱好和目光焦点多元化的当下， 春晚就是全国人民的最大公约数 ，在这个舞台上做些宣传，显然效果是最好的 ——反面例子是这回美国的超级碗，有个波多黎各歌手全程用西班牙语表演"报菜名"，川宝发帖子吐槽，称其是史上最差表演，简直礼崩乐坏。 年初展望的时候《 2026年金融市场的十大预测 》，咱们提到过 K型分化 的问题，在第十点。 这回春节就有了个微观的体验，家族里有亲戚，去年在股市里赚的不 ...

核心观点 科技有色超期行情来源。科技立国的美国模式两个弊端逐步显露，科技垄断褪色，外部供应链脆弱。美国模式决定的全球框架正经历重构。 科技有色行情的弹性。可在超扩的日债期限利差找到答案：宽松流动性无法被债券承接，资金流向西方信用低相关的四类资产，黄金，供需结构较优资产 （如铜），中国资产，科技。 科技有色行情的持续性。行情将终结于全球通胀（预期）反弹，这既是美国"不可能三角"必然结果，也是全球超级流动性退潮时刻。美联储主席换谁都不 改变逻辑，只加速或延缓叙事节奏。 当美国不得不面对国内阶层撕裂，原油或起变化，通胀掌控资产时刻再度来临。我们无法预判黑色起来的准确时点，但可预见2026年科技有色波动率变 高，铜优于金。 摘要 市场用价格巨震表达了对新任美联储主席候选人的观点。市场关注新任美联储主席，本质上是关注科技有色行情是否终结，如果不是，科技有色行情最终 会结束于怎样的场景？ 当前底层的宏观逻辑正在发生非常大的范式转变。这种转变显然是超脱常规的小周期，也是过去几年科技有色持续强势的原因。 作为宏观研究者，除了科技之外，我们早就注意到三类传统宏观大资产，贵金属、货币还有债券，以黄金、美元和日债为典型代表，这两年 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significance of the Xi'an Science and Technology Museum as a key component of China's "Belt and Road" initiative, showcasing the country's advancements in science and technology through interactive exhibits and international media engagement [1][8]. Group 1: Museum Overview - The Xi'an Science and Technology Museum covers an area of 161,200 square meters, making it one of the largest science popularization venues in China, featuring over 500 interactive exhibits [1]. - The museum's core functions include scientific exploration, aesthetic education, natural observation, urban exploration, and international exchange [1]. Group 2: Key Exhibits and Attractions - The centerpiece of the museum is the world's largest indoor rotating technology art installation, "Endless," inspired by the Möbius strip, symbolizing the endless pursuit of scientific exploration [2]. - The "Dreaming of Aerospace" exhibition area, featuring models of Chinese fighter jets like the J-10 and J-20, has garnered significant interest from international journalists [6]. Group 3: Visitor Engagement and Experience - The museum welcomed its 2 millionth visitor shortly after opening, indicating a strong interest in science-themed tourism among younger audiences [8]. - Interactive experiences within the museum have been noted to enhance visitors' understanding of science, with many children engaging enthusiastically with the exhibits [8]. Group 4: International Media Engagement - The event "Walking China, Meeting Shaanxi," organized by various Chinese institutions, aims to provide international media with a comprehensive understanding of Shaanxi's unique charm and development [10].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" announced on April 2, which caused a temporary disruption in global assets, with some industries recovering while others remain affected [3][33] - The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE 50) showed the smallest decline and has recovered nearly all losses, while the ChiNext Index has the least recovery [4][34] - The article references historical market trends following tariff escalations, suggesting that indices will likely remain in a volatile range with narrowing fluctuations [5][35] Group 2 - Domestic demand assets have shown minimal impact from tariffs, with most sectors recovering losses and returning to pre-tariff levels, indicating high policy expectations [9][37] - Key sectors include stable value industries like state-owned banks and utilities, which experienced maximum declines of around 5%, and consumer goods sectors such as beverages and food services [10][38] - The article notes that while some domestic sectors have shown structural strengths, the overall market is pricing in expectations for policy stimulus [14][45] Group 3 - Technology assets have not yet recovered from their declines, with many sectors experiencing drops of 15% to 30%, particularly in consumer electronics [17][49] - The semiconductor industry has shown the most recovery, while consumer electronics have not yet regained half of their losses [50][51] - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of technology and suggests increasing focus on the sector after the upcoming quarterly reports [22][52] Group 4 - The export chain has faced significant short-term impacts, with declines generally between 10% and 25%, and recovery levels remaining low [24][53] - Some export-oriented companies have begun to recover their losses, particularly those with non-U.S. exposure and strong Q1 performance [30][54] - The article highlights potential opportunities in sectors like wind energy, motorcycles, and engineering machinery, which are expected to benefit from improved European demand [56][57]

Group 1 - The current situation between China and the US is significantly different from the previous trade conflict that began in 2018, with China having more room for policy maneuvering and asset price adjustments [1][14][43] - By early 2025, China's economic indicators such as PPI, real estate cycle, inventory cycle, and AH valuation are expected to be at historical lows, while fiscal expansion has considerable room for growth [2][15] - In contrast, the US economy in early 2025 is characterized by high deficit rates, debt levels, and interest expenditures, which limit further fiscal expansion, alongside a weak real estate recovery [19][20][21] Group 2 - The strategy for China involves enhancing domestic counter-cyclical adjustments and accelerating the development of new productive forces in technology, while waiting for increased domestic pressure in the US to explore negotiation opportunities [43] - Investment opportunities may arise from fiscal countermeasures, technology independence, and breaking through external demand channels, particularly in sectors like service consumption, military electronics, and the Belt and Road Initiative [43][61] Group 3 - The market is expected to respond positively to increased domestic counter-cyclical adjustments and technology independence, with a focus on sectors that can benefit from fiscal stimulus [44][45] - The technology sector, particularly in consumer electronics and semiconductors, is anticipated to gradually desensitize to trade conflicts, as seen in previous cycles [48][57] - The diversification of export markets is a potential strategy, with a notable decrease in reliance on the US market and an increase in exports to Southeast Asia and other regions [61][63]