报告还显示，"海上油库"储量不断增加。继9月海上油轮原油储量激增8000万桶后，10月初步数据显示 海上油轮原油储量再度累积9200万桶。目前有近2亿桶原油滞留海上，其中受制裁原油约占32%。相比 之下，除中国原油库存及美国液化石油气外，其他主要石油消费国的陆上库存仍处于低位，经济合作与 发展组织（经合组织）库存小幅增加500万桶，非经合组织库存则下降700万桶。柴油、航空煤油等产品 市场供应紧张，且短期内缓解空间有限。 虽然今年以来石油化工原料需求表现不及预期，但仍是全球石油需求增长的主要支柱。11月初，一系列 计划外停产、设备例行维护及俄罗斯石油下游产能持续受挫等因素，将欧洲和亚洲的炼油利润率推至两 年高位。10月全球炼油加工量环比骤降290万桶／日，至8150万桶／日，但预计年底前将回升。预计 2025年全球炼油加工量将增长71万桶／日至8360万桶／日；2026年再增51万桶／日，达到8410万桶／ 日。 由于中国实际石油交付量强劲回升，报告将2025年三季度全球石油需求增长预期上调17万桶／日，至同 比增加92万桶／日。因贸易紧张局势缓解推动宏观经济形势整体改善，预计2025年全球石油需求将实现 7 ...

Core Insights - The global oil market is experiencing a shift, with supply steadily increasing while demand growth has fallen below historical averages [1][2] - Recent U.S. tariffs and economic impacts from government shutdowns, along with new sanctions on Russia, contribute to market uncertainties [1] - Brent crude oil prices have declined for four consecutive months, averaging $64.64 per barrel in October [1] Supply Dynamics - Global oil supply decreased by 440,000 barrels per day in October to 108.2 million barrels per day, influenced by OPEC+ production cuts [2] - Despite the recent decline, global oil production has increased by 6.2 million barrels per day since January [2] - Projections indicate a supply increase of 3.1 million barrels per day by 2025, reaching an average of 106.3 million barrels per day [2] Russian Oil Industry Impact - New sanctions on major Russian oil producers, which account for about 50% of Russia's crude production and exports, will intensify pressure on the Russian oil sector [3] - Although Russian oil exports have not yet faced significant disruptions, international buyers are reassessing risks and seeking alternative solutions [3] - The volume of oil stored on tankers has increased significantly, with nearly 200 million barrels currently at sea, 32% of which is under sanctions [3] Refining and Demand Outlook - Despite weaker-than-expected demand for petrochemical feedstocks, refining margins in Europe and Asia have surged to a two-year high due to various production disruptions [4] - Global refining throughput dropped by 2.9 million barrels per day in October but is expected to recover by year-end [4] - The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 has been revised upward by 170,000 barrels per day, driven by strong deliveries from China [4]