本报讯（记者 杨美）国内成品油价迎来年内第十次下调。据国家发展改革委网站最新消息，自11月24 日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别降低70元和65元。折合成升价，92号汽油、95 号汽油及0号柴油分别下调0.05元、0.06元、0.06元。 卓创资讯数据监测模型显示，本次成品油价下调后，消费者用油成本有所降低。油箱容量在50升的小型 私家车加满一箱油将比此前少花2.5元左右。国内多数地区92号汽油将进入"6元时代"。 原油需求侧整体呈现增速放缓、内部分化的格局。黄柳楠表示，因美国经济数据疲软，全球原油需求增 长预期下调，但增速仍高于2024年。炼油环节成为关键瓶颈，全球炼厂开工率因计划检修、意外停产及 制裁导致的物流问题大幅下滑。与之相反，成品油需求结构性强劲，由于柴油和航空煤油库存处于低 位、工业运输需求旺盛及俄罗斯油品供应中断，裂解价差飙升至多年以来高位。 展望后期油价走势，黄柳楠预计，今年年底到明年年初，Brent、WTI原油价格或考验4月前低，甚至可 能考验50美元/桶，上海原油期价跌幅或小于外盘。建议关注宏观预期潜在反转，届时油价波动或放 大。 卓创资讯成品油分析师曹莹莹表示，俄乌 ...

报告还显示，"海上油库"储量不断增加。继9月海上油轮原油储量激增8000万桶后，10月初步数据显示 海上油轮原油储量再度累积9200万桶。目前有近2亿桶原油滞留海上，其中受制裁原油约占32%。相比 之下，除中国原油库存及美国液化石油气外，其他主要石油消费国的陆上库存仍处于低位，经济合作与 发展组织（经合组织）库存小幅增加500万桶，非经合组织库存则下降700万桶。柴油、航空煤油等产品 市场供应紧张，且短期内缓解空间有限。 虽然今年以来石油化工原料需求表现不及预期，但仍是全球石油需求增长的主要支柱。11月初，一系列 计划外停产、设备例行维护及俄罗斯石油下游产能持续受挫等因素，将欧洲和亚洲的炼油利润率推至两 年高位。10月全球炼油加工量环比骤降290万桶／日，至8150万桶／日，但预计年底前将回升。预计 2025年全球炼油加工量将增长71万桶／日至8360万桶／日；2026年再增51万桶／日，达到8410万桶／ 日。 由于中国实际石油交付量强劲回升，报告将2025年三季度全球石油需求增长预期上调17万桶／日，至同 比增加92万桶／日。因贸易紧张局势缓解推动宏观经济形势整体改善，预计2025年全球石油需求将实现 7 ...

报告还显示，"海上油库"储量不断增加。继9月海上油轮原油储量激增8000万桶后，10月初步数据显示 海上油轮原油储量再度累积9200万桶。目前有近2亿桶原油滞留海上，其中受制裁原油约占32%。相比 之下，除中国原油库存及美国液化石油气外，其他主要石油消费国的陆上库存仍处于低位，经济合作与 发展组织（经合组织）库存小幅增加500万桶，非经合组织库存则下降700万桶。柴油、航空煤油等产品 市场供应紧张，且短期内缓解空间有限。 虽然今年以来石油化工原料需求表现不及预期，但仍是全球石油需求增长的主要支柱。11月初，一系列 计划外停产、设备例行维护及俄罗斯石油下游产能持续受挫等因素，将欧洲和亚洲的炼油利润率推至两 年高位。10月全球炼油加工量环比骤降290万桶／日，至8150万桶／日，但预计年底前将回升。预计 2025年全球炼油加工量将增长71万桶／日至8360万桶／日；2026年再增51万桶／日，达到8410万桶／ 日。 由于中国实际石油交付量强劲回升，报告将2025年三季度全球石油需求增长预期上调17万桶／日，至同 比增加92万桶／日。因贸易紧张局势缓解推动宏观经济形势整体改善，预计2025年全球石油需求将实现 7 ...

虽然今年以来石油化工原料需求表现不及预期，但仍是全球石油需求增长的主要支柱。11月初，一系列 计划外停产、设备例行维护及俄罗斯石油下游产能持续受挫等因素，将欧洲和亚洲的炼油利润率推至两 年高位。10月全球炼油加工量环比骤降290万桶／日，至8150万桶／日，但预计年底前将回升。预计 2025年全球炼油加工量将增长71万桶／日至8360万桶／日；2026年再增51万桶／日，达到8410万桶／ 日。 由于中国实际石油交付量强劲回升，报告将2025年三季度全球石油需求增长预期上调17万桶／日，至同 比增加92万桶／日。因贸易紧张局势缓解推动宏观经济形势整体改善，预计2025年全球石油需求将实现 79万桶／日的同比增长，美国、中国和尼日利亚各自贡献约12万桶／日的增量。2026年全球需求增速预 计将维持在77万桶／日左右。报告预计2025年四季度全球石油消费增速将较三季度放缓，而原油供应将 进一步反弹，加剧本就供大于求的市场态势。 (责任编辑：张紫祎) 国际能源署(IEA)最新发布的全球石油市场报告显示，全球石油市场平衡态势正逐渐被打破，一方面全 球石油供应稳步增长，另一方面全球石油需求增幅却降至历史平均水平以下。与 ...

克拉玛依云计算产业园区内，已建成碳和液冷数据中心等6个数据中心，拥有6.5万个标准机柜。依托雄 厚的算力基础，今年4月，在克拉玛依（上海）智能算力产业推介会上，克拉玛依与36家单位签署算力 战略合作协议，拿下143.73亿元订单。今年1至9月，克拉玛依云计算产业园数字经济核心产业实现产值 5.83亿元，同比增长54.1%。 发展新兴产业的同时，克拉玛依也在石油石化产业上进行"延链""补链""拓链""强链"。克拉玛依石化公 司建成高档白油生产基地和重要的航空煤油基地，独山子石化公司突破高端环保橡胶技术瓶颈…… 新生儿相关证件怎么办理？家长只需通过"新服办"小程序的新生儿"一件事"服务，上传本人身份证、户 口本、结婚证、出生医学证明等资料，在家就可以完成填报，实现"零跑动"办理。 目前，克拉玛依超过96%的政务服务事项可网上办理，60项高频服务事项实现"全市通办"，78项服务事 项实现"兵地通办"，企业开办环节由6个压缩至4个，开办时间全流程压缩至2个工作日内…… 克拉玛依这座石油城，不只有油。能源充足、气候寒冷、地质稳定等先天优势，为克拉玛依发展云计算 产业，向"云端"要生产力、谋竞争力，提供了丰厚土壤。 市民 ...

国际能源署（IEA）最新发布的全球石油市场报告显示，全球石油市场平衡态势正逐渐被打破，一方面 全球石油供应稳步增长，另一方面全球石油需求增幅却降至历史平均水平以下。与此同时，近期美国加 征关税举措引发的全球贸易动荡与美国联邦政府停摆的经济影响双重叠加，美西方对俄罗斯实施的新一 轮制裁冲击尚不明朗，市场前景充满风险。英国布伦特原油价格10月下挫3.26美元／桶，已连续4个月 下行，月均报价64.64美元／桶，交易价格徘徊在62美元／桶区间。 由于中国实际石油交付量强劲回升，报告将2025年三季度全球石油需求增长预期上调17万桶／日，至同 比增加92万桶／日。因贸易紧张局势缓解推动宏观经济形势整体改善，预计2025年全球石油需求将实现 79万桶／日的同比增长，美国、中国和尼日利亚各自贡献约12万桶／日的增量。2026年全球需求增速预 计将维持在77万桶／日左右。报告预计2025年四季度全球石油消费增速将较三季度放缓，而原油供应将 进一步反弹，加剧本就供大于求的市场态势。 报告显示，主要受欧佩克成员国和非欧佩克产油国组成的"欧佩克+"减产影响，全球石油供应量在10月 暂缓了持续攀升势头，环比下降44万桶／日至1.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", indicating that short - term oil prices will show an oscillating and weak performance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market currently lacks effective drivers, and international oil prices are falling weakly. OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, geopolitical tensions ease, and the supply - demand situation remains bearish. Short - term oil prices will still show an oscillating and weak performance [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: Bearish. EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. For example, EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,585 million barrels per day, an increase of 267 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: Neutral. Different institutions have different forecasts for global crude oil demand in 2025. EIA raises the forecast, OPEC keeps it unchanged, and IEA slightly lowers the growth rate forecast [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: Bearish. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and there were also changes in refined oil and gasoline inventories [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: Bearish. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, which may intensify concerns about market oversupply [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: Neutral. There are some geopolitical events, but they have limited impact on the oil market for now [3] - **Macro - finance (Short - Term)**: Neutral. There are signs of economic weakness in the U.S., and the market has expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Short - term oil prices will show an oscillating and weak performance [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [3] 3.2 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - **Main Oil Product Prices**: SC crude oil increased by 0.41% week - on - week, Brent crude oil decreased by 1.36%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.71%. There were also corresponding price changes in gasoline, diesel, and other oil products [5] - **Inventory and Other Data**: There were changes in the inventories of various oil products in the U.S., Europe, and Singapore, and the operating rates of refineries in different regions also changed [5] 3.3 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: International oil prices fell weakly this week. As of November 7, WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.04 dollars per barrel (-1.71%), Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.88 dollars per barrel (-1.36%), and SC crude oil futures rose by 1.90 yuan per barrel (+0.41%) [7] - **Monthly Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [10] - **Forward Curve**: The near - month spread declined [24] - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene all declined [32][43] 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In September 2025, global crude oil production increased. EIA, OPEC, and IEA all reported an increase in production compared to August [64] - **Non - OPEC Production**: The production of non - OPEC countries increased [66] - **U.S. Production**: As of the week ending October 31, U.S. domestic crude oil production increased to 13.651 million barrels per day. The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. increased to 548 as of the week ending November 8 [89] - **Inventory**: U.S. commercial inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels, and Cushing inventory increased by 30,000 barrels. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined [90][99] - **U.S. Demand**: Gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates decreased [117] - **China Demand**: The refinery capacity utilization rate increased slightly. For example, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries increased by 0.15 percentage points compared to last week [126][134] - **China Refinery Profits**: The gross profit of major refineries declined, and the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel also declined [135] 3.5 Macro - finance - **U.S. Treasury Yield and Dollar Index**: The U.S. Treasury yield rebounded, and the dollar index oscillated [148] 3.6 CFTC Positioning - The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [157]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the petrochemical sector, specifically recommending China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, CNOOC, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [4]. Core Views - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in Q1 2026, with a planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December 2025. The next meeting is scheduled for November 30, 2025. The market sentiment has improved due to this decision, but concerns about weak demand and oversupply remain, leading to expectations of price fluctuations in the short term [1][7]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers, which has led Turkish refiners to reduce purchases of Russian crude and seek alternatives from Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan [1][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with strong performance and high dividends, specifically China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, and CNOOC, due to their stable earnings and growth potential [10]. Oil Supply and Demand - As of October 31, 2025, U.S. crude oil production reached 13.65 million barrels per day, an increase of 10,000 barrels from the previous week. Refinery throughput also rose to 15.26 million barrels per day, up by 40,000 barrels [8][9]. - U.S. crude oil inventories increased, with strategic reserves at 409.6 million barrels, up by 500,000 barrels week-on-week [9]. Price Trends - As of November 7, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.63 per barrel, down 2.21% from the previous week, while WTI futures settled at $59.75 per barrel, down 2.02% [8][34]. - The report notes a decrease in LNG prices in Northeast Asia, with the price at $11.02 per million British thermal units, down 1.63% week-on-week [8][37]. Company Performance - The report indicates that the petrochemical sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 4.6% increase in the sector compared to a 0.8% increase in the CSI 300 index as of November 7, 2025 [11][14]. - Key companies such as Zhongjie Oil and Gas and Hengtong Petrochemical have shown significant weekly gains, with increases of 15.61% and 8.20%, respectively [16].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The EIA's October oil supply report confirmed the production and demand situation in the US in August. US crude oil production reached 1,379,400 barrels per day in August, a month - on - month increase of 86,000 barrels per day, showing continuous production resilience and higher than the EIA's previous weekly estimates. The total demand for US petroleum products decreased against the seasonal trend in August, mainly due to a significant weakening of diesel demand, while gasoline and jet fuel demand continued their seasonal strength [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content - **Crude Oil Production**: In August, US crude oil production was 1,379,400 barrels per day, with a month - on - month increase of 86,000 barrels per day, and the production was higher than the EIA's previous weekly estimates [1]. - **Petroleum Product Demand**: The total demand for US petroleum products decreased against the seasonal trend in August. Diesel demand weakened significantly, while gasoline and jet fuel demand maintained seasonal strength [1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **global oil market** and its dynamics, particularly focusing on the impact of geopolitical events and economic factors on oil prices and supply chains [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Price Fluctuations**: - In October, international oil prices experienced significant volatility, with Brent crude oil dropping to a six-month low of **$61.01** before rebounding. The expected price range for Q4 is between **$60 and $70**, with an average of approximately **$65** [1][10]. 2. **Impact of Sanctions on Russia**: - New sanctions targeting major Russian oil producers, **Rosneft** and **Lukoil**, are expected to reduce Russian oil exports by at least **1 million barrels per day**. These companies account for about **50%** of Russia's oil exports [5][6][8]. - The sanctions will significantly impact global supply chains, particularly affecting imports from Russia to China and India, which are expected to decrease by a combined **1 million barrels per day** [7][8]. 3. **OPEC's Role**: - OPEC has at least **3 million barrels per day** of spare capacity and may consider a slight increase in production by **137,000 barrels per day** in December to stabilize the market. However, a significant increase is not in their interest [1][12][20]. 4. **Global Oil Inventory Levels**: - Global commercial oil inventories are currently low, with U.S. inventories significantly below the five-year average, providing a support level for oil prices. The total inventory, excluding China, is about **1.9 billion barrels**, which is **15 million barrels** lower than the previous year [13][10]. 5. **Seasonal Demand Variations**: - Global energy demand exhibits seasonal fluctuations, with a notable decline expected after the peak demand periods in September and October. This seasonal change is anticipated to lead to a decrease in demand by approximately **500,000 barrels per day** in Q4 [14]. 6. **Macroeconomic Factors**: - Positive macroeconomic signals include a potential easing of U.S.-China tensions, which could stabilize market expectations. The IMF projects a global economic growth rate of **3.0%** for 2025 and **3.1%** for 2026, indicating a stable economic environment for oil markets [15][17]. 7. **Future Oil Price Predictions**: - For 2026, the average price of Brent crude is expected to remain between **$60 and $70**, with a baseline scenario of **$65**. Key factors influencing this include geopolitical events and economic policies [18][22]. 8. **Investment Trends**: - Global upstream oil investment is projected to be around **$600 billion** in 2026, reflecting a **1.5%** year-on-year decline. Major reductions are expected in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and North America, while unconventional resource investments in South America are anticipated to increase [19]. Other Important Insights - **China's Chemical Industry**: The chemical sector in China is expected to hit a low point around **2027-2028**, with gradual recovery thereafter. Ethylene production capacity is projected to increase from **65 million tons** to **90 million tons** by 2030 [28]. - **Shipping Market Changes**: Post-sanction, the global oil shipping market has adapted, with longer shipping routes being utilized and a decrease in compliant vessels, which supports the demand for oil transportation [31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the oil market, highlighting the interplay between geopolitical events, economic conditions, and industry dynamics.