证券研究报告 | 2025年10月10日 油气行业 2025 年 9 月月报 优于大市 受地缘政治与 OPEC+产量政策博弈影响，9 月油价宽幅震荡 9 月油价回顾： 2025 年 9 月布伦特原油期货均价为 67.6 美元/桶，环比上涨 0.3 美元/ 桶，月末收于 67.0 美元/桶；WTI 原油期货均价 63.6 美元/桶，环比下 跌 0.4 美元/桶，月末收于 72.4 美元/桶。9 月上旬，美国袭击委内瑞拉 船只推升风险溢价，OPEC+宣布自 10 月起延续增产，部分成员国更新补 偿性减产安排，实际削减本年度减产力度，叠加三大机构月报上调累库 预期，油价冲高回落。9 月中下旬，以色列突袭卡塔尔、俄罗斯持续遭 乌克兰无人机袭击等地缘冲突再度升温，美国原油出口量显著增加带动 库存去化；美联储降息 25 基点，但对原油价格影响有限，炼厂进入季 节性检修需求承压，油价再度冲高回落。 油价观点判断： 供给端 OPEC+宣布 10、11 月份延续增产：2024 年 12 月第 38 届 OPEC+ 召开部长级会议，决定将 200 万桶/日集体减产、166 万桶/日自愿减产 目标延长至 2026 年底；将 220 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fuel crisis in Russia, characterized by long queues at gas stations and rising fuel prices, is primarily a result of Ukraine's drone attacks on key oil refining facilities, exposing vulnerabilities in Russia's energy infrastructure [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Refining Infrastructure - Over the past month, queues have reappeared at gas stations across Russia due to a sharp increase in fuel prices and the implementation of fuel purchase limits in several cities [1][5]. - Ukraine's drone strikes have targeted not only refineries but also oil storage facilities, pipelines, and critical pumping stations, significantly damaging Russia's refining capabilities [1][3][5]. - Out of 38 oil refineries in Russia, 16 have been damaged to varying degrees, with some completely shut down, leading to a substantial reduction in refining capacity [10][19]. Group 2: Fuel Supply and Market Response - The refining network has suffered severe damage, resulting in a nearly 20% decrease in daily refining output and a 10% drop in gasoline production [19][20]. - More than 300 gas stations have closed, and many remaining stations are implementing fuel rationing, limiting supply to 10 to 20 liters per vehicle [22][23]. - The situation is particularly dire in Crimea, where about half of the gas stations have ceased gasoline sales, leading to long queues and increased public anxiety [24][26]. Group 3: Price Fluctuations and Export Challenges - Average gasoline prices in Russia have surged by 40% to 50% this year, significantly increasing the cost of living for residents [27][28]. - Russia's diesel exports have plummeted, with daily refining capacity losses exceeding one million barrels, impacting global diesel supply [30][32]. - If the current trend continues, Russian diesel exports are projected to hit their lowest level since 2020 by September 2024, prompting countries that relied on Russian diesel to seek alternative sources [33][34]. Group 4: International Reactions and Future Outlook - The energy turmoil triggered by drone attacks is complicating the already intricate international landscape, with Russian officials acknowledging the severe challenges ahead for energy security and infrastructure repair [39][41]. - The U.S. and EU are taking steps to reduce reliance on Russian energy, with proposals for additional tariffs on countries importing Russian energy and plans to phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2026 [43][44]. - Ukraine is ramping up its production of new long-range drones and plans to intensify attacks on Russian energy facilities, indicating a shift in the conflict dynamics [47][48].

智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，OPEC+正持续推进夺回全球市场份额的战略，该组织可能在11月再次提高石油产量。具体来看，以沙特阿拉 伯为首的OPEC+联盟计划在10月5日举行的线上会议上，讨论至少将11月产量增加与10月计划的13.7万桶/日相同的幅度。尽管整个石油行业已多次 发出供应过剩的警告，但石油输出国组织及其盟友仍选择分阶段恢复此前停产的石油产量，目前总计恢复规模已达166万桶/日。 在OPEC+可能再次提高石油产量之际，科威特石油公司首席执行官Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah表示，全球石油需求正以足以支撑OPEC+增产步伐的速度 持续扩张。 Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah表示："这个市场展现出比部分交易员最初预期更强的韧性。因此我们看到OPEC+国家正在缓慢但有条不紊地按计划增加供 应，这为油价带来了相对稳定性。"他补充称，这些进展"强化"了其关于需求将持续增长的观点。 在经历多年产量限制后，OPEC+正通过逐步恢复闲置产能的策略重新争夺市场份额。尽管供应增加，但全球夏季需求帮助吸收了额外供应，使油价 至今保持相对坚挺。 然而，随着部分消费需求开始放缓，未来数月市场格局可 ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) celebrates its 75th anniversary, reflecting its significant role in the development of China's oil industry and its commitment to national energy security and innovation [4][28]. Historical Development - The foundation of China's oil industry was laid in 1949 with an initial crude oil production of 120,000 tons, which has since evolved into a major global player [5]. - Major milestones include the discovery of the first large oil field, the Daqing Oilfield, in 1959, and surpassing 10 million tons of crude oil production in 1978, positioning China among the world's leading oil producers [5][9]. Current Achievements - CNPC has established a new production pattern with domestic oil and gas output reaching 1 billion tons each for crude oil, natural gas, and overseas oil and gas rights, solidifying its position in the energy sector [9][10]. - The company has made significant advancements in deep earth exploration, achieving a breakthrough with the successful drilling of the TaKe 1 well, which reached a depth of over 10,000 meters [31][32]. Technological Innovation - CNPC has transitioned from being a technology user to an innovator, focusing on high-level technological self-reliance and integrating innovation with industrial development [14][33]. - The company has developed advanced drilling technologies and equipment, enhancing its capabilities in deep and ultra-deep oil and gas exploration [33][39]. International Expansion - CNPC has expanded its international presence, particularly in the Middle East, establishing strong partnerships and leading projects such as the West Qurna-1 oil field in Iraq [18][19]. - The company has successfully executed numerous overseas projects, contributing to its status as a key player in the global energy market [20]. Green Transition - CNPC is actively pursuing a green transformation, integrating renewable energy projects alongside traditional oil and gas operations, with a goal of achieving a balanced energy portfolio by 2035 [26][27]. - The company has made strides in developing renewable energy sources, including wind and solar power, and aims to enhance its role in the clean energy sector [21][25]. Future Goals - CNPC aims to become a world-class integrated international energy and chemical company, focusing on sustainable development and innovation in energy supply [28][40].

石化周报 乌袭击俄石油相关设施，驱动油价回升 2025 年 09 月 27 日 ➢ 乌袭击俄石油相关设施，驱动油价回升。乌国防部情报总局 9 月 24 日使用 无人攻击艇袭击了位于黑海沿岸的俄罗斯关键后勤设施——新罗西斯克港和图 阿普谢港，从而港口附近的石油装运设施以及终端设备瘫痪，相关设施出口原油 约 200 万桶/日；同时，在乌克兰加强了对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击后，俄罗斯几个 地区正面临某些等级燃料的短缺，俄副总理表示，将在年底前对柴油出口实施部 分禁令，并延长目前对汽油出口的禁令。俄乌局面对石油供需的持续影响导致本 周油价上涨。此外，9 月 25 日，伊拉克总理表示，巴格达中央政府石油部将接 收库尔德自治区油田生产的原油，并通过伊拉克与土耳其两国间输油管道进行出 口，而此前库区自主出口导致伊拉克中央财政收入受损，这或许是伊拉克执行配 额和补偿性减产表现较差的主要原因，我们认为，后续伊拉克在石油生产和出口 上更大的灵活性会使其在遵循 OPEC+的产量配额方面有更好的表现，短期来看 有望加大补偿减产的力度，长期来看则增加了 OPEC+的调产灵活性。综合来看， 在地缘以及 OPEC+更加集中的定价权的影响下，我们 ...

2025年9月25日，中国石油75岁了。 75年前，全国只有四个投入开发的油田，原油年产量仅12万吨。5.4亿中国人，人均占有石油资源仅22 毫升。因为缺油，城市公共汽车只能背着煤气包上路。因为缺少炼化条件，中国最大的城市也要排长队 买"的确良"衣服。 为实现中国石油工业自立自强，以"铁人"王进喜为代表的第一代石油人，践行"宁肯少活20年，拼命也 要拿下大油田"的誓言，将"我为祖国献石油"的使命和信念刻进骨髓、融入血脉，铸就了以"三老四严、 苦干实干"为核心的石油精神和大庆精神铁人精神，激励一代又一代石油人将能源报国的旗帜，插遍神 州大地。 如今，中国石油形成了国内原油产量、国内天然气产量当量和海外油气权益产量当量"三个1亿吨"的生 产格局并巩固发展，有力地夯实了国家能源安全基石。 现在的中国石油炼厂，早已不满足于生产出催化剂、"的确良"，而是能产出全球最高等级低硫船用燃料 油等前沿高端产品。中国石油炼化技术已经实现从跟跑、并跑到领跑的跨越。据国际机构对化工企业排 名，中国石油由2020年的第十三位跃升至2024年的第四位，炼油能力达到全球第二，乙烯产能位列全球 第五。 此外，40万公里"能源动脉"，穿越戈壁 ...

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is $67.6 and $63.6 per barrel, respectively, with an increase of $0.9 per barrel compared to last week [1][2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stands at 82 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 42 million barrels, strategic inventory at 41 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 2 million barrels, showing a week-on-week change of -878, -929, +50, and -30 thousand barrels respectively [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.48 million barrels per day, reflecting a decrease of 10 thousand barrels per day [1][2] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. is 418, which is an increase of 2 rigs from the previous week [1][2] - The number of active fracturing fleets in the U.S. is 169, with an increase of 5 fleets [1][2] Refined Oil Products - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. are $85, $98, and $89 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$1.5, +$1.1, and -$5.1 per barrel [3] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are at 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, respectively, with week-on-week changes of -235, +405, and +63 thousand barrels [3] - Production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. is 9.41 million, 4.96 million, and 1.90 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -18, -27, and +1 thousand barrels per day [3] - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. is 8.81 million, 3.62 million, and 1.62 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +30, +24, and -13 thousand barrels per day [3] Trade Dynamics - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 1.6 million, 0.97 million, and 0.81 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +0.07, -0.02, and -0.09 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports are 0.10 million, 0.85 million, and 0.76 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -0.12, -0.54, and -0.42 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports are 0.05 million, 0.24 million, and 0.18 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -0.07, +0.05, and +0.12 million barrels per day [4] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [4]

Industry Overview - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) is at 3981 points, down 8.5% year-on-year and up 0.30% month-on-month [1] - Liquid chemical domestic shipping prices are at 159 RMB/ton, down 6.31% year-on-year and stable month-on-month [1][3] - The operating rates for paraxylene (PX), methanol, and ethylene glycol are 85.3%, 79.4%, and 70.9% respectively, with PX down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, methanol down 1.8 percentage points month-on-month and 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, and ethylene glycol down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month but up 15.3% year-on-year [1][3] Express Delivery - In August, express delivery volume grew approximately 12% year-on-year, with SF Holding leading the growth [2] - The total express delivery volume for the week of September 8-14 was about 3.83 billion pieces, down 0.67% month-on-month and up 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The average revenue per express delivery piece decreased by 7.2% year-on-year to 7.37 RMB [2] Logistics - The chemical shipping prices remained stable, and there is a recommendation for Haichen Co. due to improved demand [3] - The CCPI and liquid chemical shipping prices indicate a challenging environment for chemical logistics [3] Aviation - In August, civil aviation passenger volume increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with Spring Airlines leading in RPK growth [4] - The average daily flight operations increased by 6.05% year-on-year, with domestic flights up 5.39% and international flights up 10.03% [4] - The Brent crude oil futures price is at $66.68/barrel, down 0.46% month-on-month and down 9.5% year-on-year [4] Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1120.23 points, down 0.5% month-on-month and down 31.6% year-on-year [5] - The BDTI index for crude oil transportation increased by 5.1% month-on-month and 28.1% year-on-year [5] - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping is at 2179 points, up 4.3% month-on-month and up 13.0% year-on-year [5] Road and Rail Ports - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.8% month-on-month and 9.2% year-on-year, with container throughput up 0.1% month-on-month and 13.5% year-on-year [6] - The total number of trucks passing through highways was 57.71 million, up 6.17% month-on-month but down 0.58% year-on-year [6] - The dividend yield of major road operators is higher than the current yield of China's ten-year government bonds [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The domestic key refining projects' price spread this week is 2516 CNY/ton, down by 19 CNY/ton (1% decrease) compared to the previous week, while the foreign key refining projects' price spread is 1181 CNY/ton, down by 12 CNY/ton (1% decrease) [2]. - In the polyester sector, the average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6704, 6936, and 7982 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -86, -143, and -39 CNY/ton. The weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are 79, -33, and 64 CNY/ton respectively [2]. - The operating rate for polyester filament is 91.5%, which is a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [2]. - The downstream weaving machine operating rate is 62.2%, down by 0.2 percentage points week-on-week [2]. - The average price of PX this week is 831.9 USD/ton, down by 3.7 USD/ton, with a price spread compared to crude oil of 338.7 USD/ton, down by 11.6 USD/ton [2]. - The report highlights several listed companies in the refining and polyester sectors, including Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices for gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene have increased this week [2]. - The average price of Brent crude oil is 67.6 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [9]. 2. Polyester Sector - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6704, 6936, and 7982 CNY/ton respectively, with corresponding week-on-week changes [9]. - The inventory days for POY, FDY, and DTY are 20.6, 28.8, and 31.5 days respectively, with slight increases week-on-week [9]. - The operating rates for PX, PTA, and MEG are 85.3%, 75.5%, and 70.9% respectively [9]. 3. Chemical Sector - The report provides insights into the average prices and profit margins for various chemical products, including PX and PTA [9]. - The average price of PX is 831.9 USD/ton, with a decrease in the price spread compared to crude oil [9].

Group 1 - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is celebrating its 70th anniversary with a major project launch event in Urumqi, where the integrated refining and chemical project by Sinopec in Kucha has commenced construction [1][3] - The Tarim Refining and Chemical Integration Project is a key initiative for Sinopec to promote integrated industrial chain development in Xinjiang, featuring advanced green and low-carbon technology with a total of 16 refining production units planned [3][5] - The project aims to increase annual output value by approximately 20.2 billion yuan and generate about 3.5 billion yuan in tax revenue, while creating around 10,000 jobs and facilitating local resource utilization [5] Group 2 - Upon completion, the Tarim Refining Company will have a crude oil processing capacity of 8.5 million tons per year, producing ethylene and paraxylene, thus supporting the development of oil and gas processing and textile industries [5] - Currently, the Tarim Refining Company is the only refining enterprise in Northwest China, with an existing crude oil processing capacity of 5 million tons per year, supplying over 70 million tons of products to regions including Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, and Tibet over the past 20 years [5]