全球秩序结构重塑

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张继强:当下股市任何明显调整都是抄底机会,黄金应该抛一半,债市投资是事倍功半
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-18 10:44
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a shift towards equity investments in 2023, suggesting that the stock market is expected to experience a healthy slow bull market rather than a bear market, with structural opportunities being the key focus for investors [5][12][14]. Group 1: Market Trends - The stock market is anticipated to transition from a bear market mindset post-2024 "926", with any significant adjustments seen as opportunities [8][14]. - Three major themes for 2023 are identified: stabilizing the market, combating "involution," and promoting consumption, with "involution" being the most critical theme [9][20]. - The A-share and Hong Kong markets have experienced four bottoms this year, indicating a complex market environment [11][37]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to focus on structural opportunities rather than index performance, as these present the greatest potential for success [6][12]. - The bond market is described as having low absolute returns and high volatility, making it less attractive for investors [7][44]. - Convertible bonds are seen as a favorable investment option, but their practical application is limited due to high prices and a lack of available choices [48][49]. Group 3: Economic Environment - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant changes, influenced by factors such as AI advancements and geopolitical shifts, which are expected to impact market dynamics [16][18]. - Domestically, the economy is characterized by strong production but weaker internal demand, with the hope that combating "involution" will improve this balance [25][26]. - The liquidity in the market is reported to be robust, with insurance companies expected to allocate a significant portion of their premiums to the stock market [30][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the market will likely experience increased volatility due to various event-driven factors, which could benefit flexible investment strategies [32][39]. - The outlook for gold is cautious, with recommendations to maintain only half of the position due to uncertain market conditions [10][36]. - The bond market is expected to remain challenging, with limited upside potential and frequent fluctuations, making it a less favorable environment for investors [44][46].