全球经济增速上调
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全球经济增速上调-20250924
申银万国期货研究· 2025-09-24 00:37
Group 1 - The OECD has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the June prediction [1] - In the U.S., the Markit manufacturing and services PMI fell in September but remained in expansion territory, with easing price pressures [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that U.S. stock valuations are high and reiterated the dual challenges of rising inflation and declining employment, without clarifying the October interest rate decision [1] Group 2 - Argentina has temporarily eliminated export taxes on soybeans and derivatives, aiming to increase foreign exchange supply and stabilize its currency, impacting global soybean markets [2][27] - U.S. soybean prices have dropped to a six-week low amid ongoing harvest and unclear export prospects due to U.S.-China tariffs [2][27] Group 3 - Gold and silver prices opened high but fell later, influenced by Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts despite high inflation [3][19] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may lower rates in the remaining meetings of the year, supporting bullish sentiment for gold [3][19] Group 4 - Oil prices rose by 1.47% as Iraq approved a plan to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan region, potentially adding at least 230,000 barrels per day to supply [4][14] - Ongoing drone attacks in Ukraine have disrupted Russian oil exports, increasing the risk of production cuts [4] Group 5 - The U.S. current account deficit significantly decreased by $188.5 billion in Q2, reaching its lowest level since Q3 2023, marking a historic record decline [7] Group 6 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China is preparing a development plan for the smart connected vehicle industry, indicating a push towards integrating AI with transportation [9] Group 7 - The financial market is experiencing volatility, with the U.S. stock indices declining and the bond market reacting to the Fed's cautious approach [12][13] - The domestic bond market is under pressure, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 1.799% amid a stable funding environment [13] Group 8 - The rubber market is experiencing fluctuations due to weather conditions affecting supply, while demand from tire manufacturers is showing signs of recovery [16] - The methanol market is under pressure with rising inventories and fluctuating production rates [15] Group 9 - The copper market is facing mixed signals with tight supply and high production rates, while demand from various sectors remains uncertain [20] - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate due to rising processing fees and mixed demand signals from the construction and automotive sectors [21] Group 10 - The shipping index is experiencing downward pressure as freight rates decline, with expectations of a potential stabilization post the National Day holiday in China [31]