Economic Outlook - Citi projects a significant slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year, potentially reducing global economic growth to 2.4% for the year [1][7] - The first quarter showed resilience in the global economy due to preemptive purchasing by U.S. consumers and businesses to avoid tariffs, but trade indicators are increasingly reflecting tariff-related pressures [2][3] - Global growth is expected to rebound slightly to 2.5% in 2026, as tariffs begin to impact economic activity [10] Trade and Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on economic activity remains uncertain, with limited transmission to U.S. consumer prices observed so far [4] - The U.S. effective import tariff rate is expected to stabilize around 15%, with the deficit potentially averaging close to 6% of GDP [4] - Many countries, including the U.S., Canada, the UK, China, ASEAN nations, Brazil, and Mexico, are likely to see slower economic growth compared to last year [10] Stock Market Strategy - The stock market is stabilizing against a backdrop of easing trade tensions, with major indices approaching levels seen before tariff increases [11] - The consensus for global earnings per share (EPS) growth in 2025 has been adjusted down to 8%, with a top prediction of 6% [11] - The strategy has shifted from tactical to structural bullishness on Europe, supported by increased fiscal spending and a divergence from the "U.S. exceptionalism" narrative [11][12] Commodity Outlook - The short-term outlook for Brent crude oil prices is expected to fluctuate around current levels, with a long-term forecast of $60-$65 per barrel due to OPEC+ supply control [15] - Gold prices are projected to stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in the coming quarters, with a peak expected in Q2 2025 [16] - Basic metals and lithium are viewed with a neutral to bearish outlook, with copper prices expected to fluctuate around $8800 per ton [17] Currency Outlook - A soft landing scenario is expected to be unfavorable for the U.S. dollar, with a potential shift in market expectations towards a more dovish Federal Reserve [18] - The forecast for the euro to dollar exchange rate has been adjusted to 1.20, while the outlook for the dollar remains bearish in the near term [19][21]