Global Economic Overview - The global economy showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with total demand slightly rebounding and overall supply remaining stable, although inflation rates are decreasing at a slower pace and becoming more differentiated [1][10] - Consumer spending accounts for over 50% of global GDP, with mixed growth across major economies; U.S. retail sales expanded for two consecutive months, while the Eurozone and Japan experienced a slowdown in retail sales [1][17] - Private investment and government spending have increased, indicating a recovery in global manufacturing investment demand [1][19] Supply Side Analysis - Agricultural output remains stable, with global grain production expected to reach a record high of 2.961 billion tons, a 3.5% increase year-on-year [2][14] - Manufacturing activity is rebounding, with JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI returning to expansion territory; the U.S. and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs showed strong performance [2][13] - Service sector activity has slightly weakened but remains in a prosperous range, particularly in emerging markets like India [2][16] Inflation Trends - Global inflation is showing a trend of differentiation, with U.S. CPI rising to 2.9% year-on-year in August, while Eurozone CPI increased by 2.1% [2][22] - Major emerging economies, except for South Africa and Mexico, are experiencing a decline in CPI growth rates [2][22] - Overall, global inflation is expected to stabilize, with a projected CPI growth rate of around 3.1% for Q4 2025 [2][23] Trade Dynamics - U.S. tariff policies have seen a reduction in impact, with the WTO revising the global goods trade growth forecast for 2025 from -0.2% to 0.9% [3][26] - China's exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% in July, while the U.S. share of China's total exports decreased [3][27] - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies, which could lead to further trade risks and protectionist measures from other economies [3][28] Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve adopted a dovish stance, with a 25 basis point rate cut in September, while the ECB maintained a neutral rate [3][10] - Expectations for further rate cuts by the Fed are rising, with potential implications for inflation and employment risks [3][10] - The monetary policy framework of the Fed is evolving towards a more balanced model, emphasizing price stability alongside maximum employment [3][10] Financial Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is expected to remain weak, while emerging market equities are becoming more attractive due to valuation advantages [4][10] - Global stock markets showed strong performance in Q3, with several indices reaching new highs, although adjustments may be necessary in the near term [4][10] - Commodity prices are experiencing increased volatility, with oil prices significantly down from the beginning of the year, while gold prices are rising due to Fed rate cut expectations [4][10]