宏观策略（黄金） 美联储降息 25bp 金价震荡收涨，美联储如期降息 25bp 落地，2026 年降息空间有 限，同时开始购债维持准备金规模充足，流动性紧张的风险下 降，但美联储资产负债表还没有快速扩张。 宏观策略（股指期货） 日度报告——综合晨报 美联储宣布降息 25BP，中国通胀分化 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-11 多晶硅平台公司，股东名单披露 可关注贴水现货后的逢低做多机会，或关注卖出虚值看跌期权 的机会。 11 月中国通胀分化 综 合 11 月通胀数据 k 型分化，CPI 上，PPI 下。一方面反映出反内卷 对物价的提振难以抵消需求疲弱和输入性因素的影响，另一方 面核心 CPI 走平也暗示消费扩张走弱。 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 央行开展了 1898 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 政治局会议的表述未超市场预期，预计经济工作会议的政策定 调也应以保持定力为主。经过大幅下跌后，做多 TL 的赔率明显 提升，建议短线以调整买入思路对待。 黑色金属（动力煤） 12 月 10 日北港市场动力煤报价偏弱 12 月份以来，电厂补库后并未迎来预期中的冷冬，实际日耗表 现始终维持负增长。此轮冬 ...

Global Economic Overview - The global economy showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with total demand slightly rebounding and overall supply remaining stable, although inflation rates are decreasing at a slower pace and becoming more differentiated [1][10] - Consumer spending accounts for over 50% of global GDP, with mixed growth across major economies; U.S. retail sales expanded for two consecutive months, while the Eurozone and Japan experienced a slowdown in retail sales [1][17] - Private investment and government spending have increased, indicating a recovery in global manufacturing investment demand [1][19] Supply Side Analysis - Agricultural output remains stable, with global grain production expected to reach a record high of 2.961 billion tons, a 3.5% increase year-on-year [2][14] - Manufacturing activity is rebounding, with JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI returning to expansion territory; the U.S. and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs showed strong performance [2][13] - Service sector activity has slightly weakened but remains in a prosperous range, particularly in emerging markets like India [2][16] Inflation Trends - Global inflation is showing a trend of differentiation, with U.S. CPI rising to 2.9% year-on-year in August, while Eurozone CPI increased by 2.1% [2][22] - Major emerging economies, except for South Africa and Mexico, are experiencing a decline in CPI growth rates [2][22] - Overall, global inflation is expected to stabilize, with a projected CPI growth rate of around 3.1% for Q4 2025 [2][23] Trade Dynamics - U.S. tariff policies have seen a reduction in impact, with the WTO revising the global goods trade growth forecast for 2025 from -0.2% to 0.9% [3][26] - China's exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% in July, while the U.S. share of China's total exports decreased [3][27] - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies, which could lead to further trade risks and protectionist measures from other economies [3][28] Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve adopted a dovish stance, with a 25 basis point rate cut in September, while the ECB maintained a neutral rate [3][10] - Expectations for further rate cuts by the Fed are rising, with potential implications for inflation and employment risks [3][10] - The monetary policy framework of the Fed is evolving towards a more balanced model, emphasizing price stability alongside maximum employment [3][10] Financial Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is expected to remain weak, while emerging market equities are becoming more attractive due to valuation advantages [4][10] - Global stock markets showed strong performance in Q3, with several indices reaching new highs, although adjustments may be necessary in the near term [4][10] - Commodity prices are experiencing increased volatility, with oil prices significantly down from the beginning of the year, while gold prices are rising due to Fed rate cut expectations [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is celebrating the stability of inflation in the Eurozone, with a current inflation rate of 2%, but significant disparities exist among member countries, complicating economic management [1][3]. Group 1: Inflation Rates Across Eurozone - In July, only Finland's inflation rate met the ECB's target of 2%, while other major economies like Germany, France, and Italy reported rates below this target [1]. - The gap in inflation rates among Eurozone countries has widened to 5.5 percentage points, up from a low earlier in the year, indicating increasing divergence in economic conditions [3]. - The ECB has maintained interest rates after eight consecutive cuts, with President Lagarde expressing confidence in the stability of inflation at the target level [3]. Group 2: National Central Bank Perspectives - The Greek central bank governor indicated a balance has been achieved between inflation, banking development, and economic growth, suggesting a reluctance to lower rates further, with Greece's inflation at 3.7% [4]. - The Spanish central bank governor emphasized patience in decision-making, with Spain's inflation at 2.7% [4]. - The French central bank governor highlighted the importance of keeping future decisions open, as France's inflation rate has been below 2% for nearly a year, currently at 0.9% [4]. Group 3: Future Inflation Predictions - Predictions indicate that the average inflation rate in the Eurozone is expected to reach 2% by 2027, but only three countries are projected to meet this target [6]. - Service inflation has consistently outpaced overall inflation for two years, driven by recent wage growth, with the current gap exceeding the historical average [9]. - Factors such as a strong euro, influx of cheap goods from countries facing high U.S. tariffs, and weakened export demand may lead to lower-than-expected price growth in the future [12].