全 GL AN 2 全球经 LOBAL ND INV 20 经济展 L ECO VESTM 02 展望及 ONOMI MENT S 6 投资策 IC OU STRAT 策略 UTLOO TEGY K 格物 UNC CHA 物致知， COVER DE ART NEW 成势在人 EEPER INS HORIZON 人 SIGHTS, NS icbci.co om.hk 序 言 Preface 王文彬 Wenbin Wang Ph.D., CFA, FRM 董事长 Chairman 穿越周期 洞见新机 风禾尽起，时机交替。回望 2025 年，全球经济于多重变局中迎来关键转折。美联储降息周期再度开 启，全球关税博弈峰回路转，然全球地缘冲突迭起、科技竞合加剧、供应链重构深化、美国财政约束趋 紧等挑战突出。全球经济航行于曙光隐现却暗礁潜藏的未知海域，风险资产于高估值区间内震荡加剧。 中国经济于复杂环境中应变克难、稳健前行，在"十四五"圆满收官之际，以高质量发展奏响稳中有进 的昂扬主旋律。香港资本市场强势复苏，恒生指数全年涨幅领跑全球，IPO 募资额重登全球首位，国际 债券发行规模亚洲领先，尽显东方明珠蓬勃活力。 破立相生 ...

Group 1 - The global economy is transitioning from a linear trajectory to a complex system shaped by non-linearity, path dependence, and adaptability, driven by structural reforms, supply chain restructuring, and technological innovation under fiscal leadership [1][2][5] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.2% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, reflecting an improvement from previous predictions but still indicating a phase of moderate growth intertwined with high uncertainty [2][3] - The current chaotic non-linear evolution is attributed to three main factors: ongoing external shocks, structural differentiation disrupting economic rhythms, and reflexive cycles exacerbating instability [5][6] Group 2 - The global economy is expected to exhibit four key characteristics in 2026: adaptability, non-linearity, high sensitivity, and bidirectionality, indicating a complex interplay of upward potential and downward risks [6][7] - Fiscal policies are becoming increasingly central to economic management as monetary policy faces limitations due to high debt levels and persistent inflation, with major economies expected to rely on fiscal expansion to counteract downward pressures [10][11] - The economic outlook for major regions in 2026 includes a projected GDP growth of 1.8% for the US, 1.1% for the Eurozone, and 0.7% for Japan, with inflation rates expected to stabilize around 2.9%, 1.8%, and 1.8% respectively [13][14]