Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Bitcoin prices, from approximately $125,000 to around $84,000, is attributed to a complex interplay of factors beyond just a typical market correction, including macroeconomic conditions and significant changes in the cryptocurrency ecosystem driven by companies like Strategy Inc. [2][4] Group 1: Bitcoin Price Movement - Bitcoin reached a historical high of approximately $125,000 on October 6, 2025, before experiencing a decline to about $84,000 by late November, marking a maximum drawdown of nearly 30% [2][4] - The decline is characterized as a typical "high position correction," influenced by cooling interest rate expectations, overall risk asset declines, and a shift from net inflows to net outflows in ETF investments [4][30] Group 2: Strategy Inc. and Its Bitcoin Holdings - Strategy Inc., formerly known as MicroStrategy, has transformed from a software company into a significant holder of Bitcoin, with a total of 649,870 Bitcoins acquired at a total cost of approximately $48.37 billion, averaging $74,433 per Bitcoin [5][8] - The current estimated market value of Strategy's Bitcoin holdings is between $54 billion and $56 billion, representing about 3% of the global Bitcoin supply [8] - Bitcoin constitutes approximately 75% to 80% of Strategy's total assets, indicating a shift towards being a Bitcoin treasury rather than a software company [8][12] Group 3: MSCI's Impact on Strategy Inc. - MSCI has initiated a consultation regarding how to classify companies with significant digital asset holdings, suggesting that companies with over 50% of their total assets in digital assets should be treated as investment funds rather than operating companies [16][22] - The consultation period ends on December 31, 2025, with a decision expected to take effect on January 15, 2026, potentially leading to the exclusion of such companies from mainstream stock indices [17][20] - If Strategy is removed from major indices, passive funds tracking MSCI could be forced to sell approximately $2.8 billion worth of Strategy stock, with total potential sell pressure reaching around $8.8 billion if other index providers follow suit [23][24] Group 4: Market Reactions and Valuation Changes - Following MSCI's announcement, the market has begun to react, with Strategy's market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratio dropping from a peak of 2.5 to approximately 1.1, indicating a significant reduction in the premium investors are willing to pay [29][30] - The decline in mNAV suggests that the previous cycle of using high premiums to issue new shares for Bitcoin purchases has been disrupted, leading to a more traditional and costly approach to financing [29][30]

全球财政主导下，结构性改革、产业链重组与技术创新正在取代旧的全球化逻辑，重新锚定增长基础。 "长风破浪会有时，直挂云帆济沧海。"人类经济社会的每一次前行，都是在混沌中构建秩序的历程，是在动荡的浪潮中 寻找平衡的永恒努力。当旧范式的能量逐渐衰竭，新范式的形态隐约成形，全球经济正在脱离线性轨道，迈入一个由 非线性、路径依赖与适应性共同塑造的复杂系统。局部的细微变化不再是可忽略的短噪声，而成为可能撬动整体格局 的关键节点。历史积累的惯性也不再是趋势的线性延伸，而是以隐性约束的方式限定未来演化的可能区间。系统对扰 动的敏感性显著提升，经济运行呈现出高度不稳定却韧性犹在的双重特征。在这种混沌式演化中，传统经验难以提供 确定答案，唯有回溯底层结构方能洞见未来方向。混沌并不可畏，它象征着系统的开放性与潜能苏醒的活力。全球财 政主导下，结构性改革、产业链重组与技术创新正在取代旧的全球化逻辑，重新锚定增长基础。人类的任务，仍是以 理性的勇气与制度的创新，去抵御失序的惯性。在混沌中找到规律，在失序中构建秩序，在动荡中做出选择，这正是 文明前行的必由之路。 混沌中的规律：全球经济的非线性演化 在纷繁现象中寻找到深埋其后的演化规律， ...