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永安期货有色早报-20250922
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 03:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. The copper fundamentals remained resilient, with downstream开工 increasing month - on - month. Consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly from January to July. The downstream开工 improved, and inventory was expected to decline in September. Hold positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated downward this week. The supply side had mixed trends, and demand was seasonally weak domestically and faced some production resistance overseas. Hold short positions and take partial profits on internal - external long arbitrage [5]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals were weak, but the macro - level policies brought positive sentiment. The Indonesian policy had some price - supporting actions [6]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals were generally weak, with short - term macro - level following the anti - involution expectations, and the Indonesian policy had price - supporting motives [6]. - Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply was expected to be flat, demand improved slightly but inventory was at a high level. Next week, lead prices were expected to fluctuate significantly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan [8]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. The domestic and overseas supply was expected to improve marginally after October. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and short lightly above 275,000 yuan/ton [11]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand was in a tight balance, and the long - term price was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [15]. - Carbonate lithium prices fluctuated strongly. The supply was in an expansion cycle, but there were supply - side disturbances. The price had high elasticity after the supply - side disturbance hype landed [17]. Group 3: Summaries by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. Before the interest - rate meeting, the market's profit - taking sentiment led to a decline in copper prices. The downstream开工 increased month - on - month, and the scrap - refined substitution effect weakened. The internal - external long arbitrage had space, and copper was driven by the global fiscal and monetary double - loosening [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to July. The downstream开工 improved, with stable photovoltaic module production schedules, but overseas demand declined significantly. Inventory was expected to decline in September. Hold positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern [2]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated downward. The domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased significantly. The demand was seasonally weak domestically and faced production resistance overseas. The LME inventory decreased, and the internal - external pattern might further differentiate. Hold short positions and take partial profits on internal - external long arbitrage [5]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak, and inventory increased both at home and abroad. The short - term fundamentals were weak, but the macro - level policies brought positive sentiment, and the Indonesian policy had price - supporting actions [6]. Stainless Steel - The steel mills were expected to resume production slightly. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. The cost of nickel - iron remained stable, and that of chrome - iron increased slightly. Inventory decreased in Xifu areas, and the overall fundamentals were weak [6]. Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply was expected to be flat, with low -开工 of recycled lead. Demand improved slightly, but inventory was at a high level. Next week, lead prices were expected to fluctuate significantly in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan [8]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. The domestic smelters reduced production, and overseas supply was expected to recover after September. Demand was mainly supported by rigidity, and the LME inventory rebounded from a low level. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and short lightly above 275,000 yuan/ton [11]. Industrial Silicon - The Xinjiang leading enterprises remained stable, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan was stable. The short - term supply - demand was in a tight balance, and the long - term price was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [15]. Carbonate Lithium - This week, carbonate lithium prices fluctuated strongly. The raw - material suppliers had strong price - holding intentions, and the lithium - salt procurement was supported by pre - holiday stocking. The supply was in an expansion cycle, but there were supply - side disturbances, and the price had high elasticity after the supply - side disturbance hype landed [17].