全球金属定价体系
Search documents
美国刚叫停对造华船加税,一场新的较量就开始,人民币被剔出局?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 23:51
Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by the London Metal Exchange (LME) to remove the Chinese yuan from its settlement system signals a strategic move by the U.S. to tighten control over the global metal pricing system, despite claims of low usage of non-dollar settlements being seen as misleading [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The LME's action is part of a broader strategy by the U.S. and G7 to confine the entire metal supply chain within the dollar system, aiming to control pricing and settlement processes [1][3]. - Despite the LME's decision, China remains the largest consumer of metals globally, with significant purchases of copper, aluminum, zinc, rare earths, nickel, and cobalt, indicating its strong market presence [3][5]. - The trading volume of yuan-denominated contracts on the Shanghai exchange has surged, with aluminum contract trading volume increasing by 18% year-on-year and gold futures trading volume skyrocketing by 25 times compared to the previous year [3][5]. Group 2: Emerging Pricing Systems - The rise of "Shanghai pricing" reflects not only an increase in trading volume but also the establishment of a dual pricing network with both onshore and offshore markets, allowing China to create alternative trading platforms [5][8]. - The potential for a dual pricing system in the global metal market is emerging, with "London pricing" and "Shanghai pricing" coexisting, each catering to different customer bases and settlement systems [7][8]. - The ability of the yuan to establish an independent pricing logic, unaffected by U.S. monetary policy, is crucial for its future role in the global market [8][10]. Group 3: Financial Trust and Market Sentiment - The issuance of Chinese sovereign dollar bonds in Hong Kong, which saw subscriptions exceeding $100 billion for a $4 billion offering, reflects strong market confidence in China's economic stability [5][10]. - The LME's decision may inadvertently accelerate the yuan's movement away from Western platforms, as China's market demand and creditworthiness continue to grow [10][12]. - The evolving financial landscape indicates a shift from a unipolar to a multipolar system, where both the dollar and yuan will compete for influence in global markets [12].