答：双边本币互换是指两国（地区）的中央银行（货币当局）在互信基础上建立的一种有抵押的融资安 排，一方以本币为质押，获取另一方等值货币。 为了方便理解，我们可以把本币互换想象成央行之间开立的一张"货币信用卡"。比如中欧双方签订本币 互换协议后，当欧洲的银行需要人民币给企业支付从中国进口的货款时，欧央行就可以动用这张"信用 卡"，用即时汇率从中国人民银行换取人民币，到期之后，双方再按原汇率换回货币并支付少量利息。 9月，中国人民银行与欧央行、瑞士央行、匈牙利央行续签双边本币互换协议；8月18日，与泰国银行续 签双边本币互换协议；5月13日，与巴西央行续签双边本币互换协议……近年来，中国人民银行持续深 化对外货币金融合作，稳步推进双边本币互换。据统计，今年内中国人民银行已与8家外国央行签署 （含续签）了双边本币互换协议。 什么是本币互换？我国当前本币互换情况如何？越来越多的本币互换协议，将为经济发展带来哪些影 响？针对社会关注的问题，记者采访了上海金融与发展实验室副主任、招联首席研究员董希淼。 问：什么是本币互换？为什么要进行本币互换？ 以中国人民银行与巴西央行的本币互换协议为例，2013年，两国首次签署双边本币互 ...

外汇周报 | 2025-10-12 贸易风险抬头，汇率未现突破 市场分析 美元兑人民币 根据海关数据，2025 年 8 月中国出口同比增长 4.4%，较 7 月的 7.2% 明显放缓，创最近六个月最低水平。同 时，对美出口同比下滑约 33.1%（环比亦呈下降）；中国进口增速疲弱，整体进出口动能趋弱。在政策层面，10 月 10 日特朗普宣布将从 11 月 1 日起对中国商品再征 100% 关税，并可能同步实施出口控制措施，此举被视为中美 贸易摩擦升级信号。在这种背景下，人民币在出口端尚无强劲修复信号与政策支撑的情况下，其外部压力有所抬 升，"关税延期"虽暂时为其争取缓冲期，但若关税最终落地，需注意人民币贬值风险。 特朗普的新关税提案使市场对美元避险需求短期上升。美元指数在本周尝试反弹，但涨幅收窄并未突破主要阻力。 与此同时，美联储会议纪要继续释放偏宽松信号，表示官员倾向于未来进一步降息，但通胀风险和资产负债表调 整仍被广泛关注。数据方面，由于美国政府部分停摆，核心经济数据（如非农、通胀、工业产出等）发布受限， 令美元缺乏实质面支撑。若后续有强于预期的数据出台，可能为美元带来反弹机会；但在当前多重不确定性干扰 下 ...

最近印度发生了两件看似矛盾的事情，一方面，俄罗斯向印度提出希望用人民币结算石油交易，曾经对人民币结算态度回避的印度，居然同意了；另一方 面，印度被曝扣押了中国企业大约50亿元人民币的资金，并且有报道称，英国法院已经判决必须归还。那么，为什么印度会在石油交易上做出妥协？而那50 亿元资金又究竟何时能还回去？ 为什么印度会接受用人民币结算？ 其实，印度并不是心甘情愿地接受人民币结算，而是因为现实的需求迫使它不得不做出这个决定。根据实际情况，2025年上半年，印度每天从俄罗斯进口约 175到180万桶石油，占其总石油进口量的35%到40%。俄罗斯的石油便宜，每桶比国际油价低8到10美元，对于印度这样的能源需求大国来说，无疑是个节 省成本的好机会。 然而，问题在于支付方式。最初，印度打算继续使用美元或者阿联酋的迪拉姆结算，但前美国总统特朗普明确表示，如果印度继续这么做，美国将加征25% 的关税，这使得印度只能放弃这一想法。之后，印度试图推行自己的"石油卢比"，希望用卢比支付，但由于卢比贬值严重，且俄罗斯几乎无法利用卢比进行 贸易，印度只好放弃这个方案。 最后，俄罗斯指出，如果印度继续用无法流通的货币支付，就必须减少石 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. faces a "dilemma" regarding the dollar, balancing between maintaining its status as the dominant international reserve currency and addressing domestic economic challenges [1][6][15]. Group 1: Global Trade and Currency Connection - The current global trade and tariff disputes are deeply intertwined with currency issues, particularly the dollar's role in international trade [1][5]. - There are two main channels connecting trade disputes to currency: traditional exchange rates and the impact of high domestic savings rates in countries like China [2][4]. Group 2: U.S. Dollar's Dilemma - The U.S. aims to promote a competitive dollar to enhance manufacturing and improve trade balances while also wanting to maintain its geopolitical leverage through the dollar [6][15]. - Achieving both objectives is seen as unlikely, as the dollar will have to concede some of its global dominance [6][15]. Group 3: Potential Challengers to the Dollar - Four currencies are identified as potential challengers to the dollar: the euro, the renminbi, Special Drawing Rights (SDR), and digital currencies [8][9][12]. - The euro faces challenges related to the EU's internal dynamics and lacks a corresponding fiscal authority [8]. - The renminbi has made progress in internationalization but still lags in global financial transactions and reserves [9][10]. Group 4: Opportunities for Reform - The current situation presents an opportunity for reform in the international monetary system, particularly if the U.S. allows the dollar to retreat from its dominant position [13][14]. - The role of SDR could be expanded to provide a more stable alternative to the dollar, promoting a multipolar currency system [12][14]. Group 5: Conditions for Currency as Reserve - For a currency to serve as a reserve, it must provide stable and secure assets, which is currently a challenge for alternatives to the dollar [19][20]. - The global demand for reserve currencies is complex, and the scale of dollar assets may not reflect the actual need for reserve currencies [20][21].

文/ 中国人民银行原行长 周小川 中国人民银行原行长周小川在2 02 5清华五道口全球金融论坛闭门研讨会 上的演讲中指出，美国在美元问题上实际上存在着两个互相矛盾的目标， 面临"两难选择"。问题的关键在于，国际货币体系中，有没有其他货币敢 于且有能力出来挑战现状，不一定是公开进行挑战，而是寻求机会在实际 应用领域逐步替代部分美元，那么国际货币体系就可能出现新的局面。 全球贸易关税争端与美元的两难选择 第二个渠道是储蓄率的外溢与货币相关。 这种分析认为，全球贸易之所以不平衡，与亚洲特别是中国的国内储蓄率过高有关，它导致大量贸易顺 差及强劲的对外投融资。这种过高的储蓄主要是本币的，但通过国际货币体系产生转换，形成对外的贸易、投资和借贷等行动。 图为周小川 在2008年全球金融危机时，时任美联储主席伯南克就从储蓄过量（saving glut）的角度分析美国为什么出现次贷危机。他认为，亚洲包括中国在内 储蓄率过高，大量的储蓄资金通过美元涌入美国市场，压低了美国国内利率和美国家庭储蓄率。虽然美国民众注重消费，国际收支经常项目逆差， 但有资本流入，美元仍过于强劲。至于这种渠道是否对美国产生不公平，那可能需要另外讨论。 因 ...

本文来自微信公众号：局外人的视界，作者：卡夫卡不忙了，原文标题：《聊聊汇率》，题图来自：视 觉中国 论起真实购买力，RMB肯定是被远远低估了。 如今国际实物贸易里，RMB已经是第一货币了，很可惜，实物贸易在国际结算里占比也就5%，终究是 金融玩法才是来回捯饬的大头。 我们一直都说摸着石头过河，美帝这个老石头，都快被盘包浆了。好好的全球第一工业王国搞成现在这 样，连军工都不能自主可控，你还真不能怪别人。 强如美帝，没有谁能从外部害了它，把它拖到今天这个尴尬地步的就是该死的金融。 看起来搞新殖民模式，通过美元来向全球征收铸币税美滋滋，但实际上，想要保证美元全球流通就必须 先让全世界有美元。 美帝如果还是全球最大工业国，常年保持贸易顺差，请问谁手上有美元呢？ 人家都没有美元了，自然不会用美元，好容易弄到点美元，那不得跟宝贝一样收藏起来，那美元也就没 办法成为全球储备货币了。 所以你看，美国的贸易顺差跟黄金美元崩盘几乎是同一时间发生的。 现在美帝瞄准东大打贸易战，40年前美帝瞄准日本打贸易战，民间仇恨到华裔被认为日本人在酒馆活活 打死，凶手竟然还能在民意保护下只判了三年缓刑（陈果仁事件）。 所以你看，老美一贯就是这么 ...

国际市场上根本没人认卢比，你拿着卢比想去买其他国家的东西，人家理都不理你。俄罗斯本来想拿着 这些卢比从印度买点急需的商品，结果一看，印度除了神油、咖喱，也没啥能入得了俄罗斯眼的硬货。 而且卢比汇率还特别不稳定，贬值得飞快，俄罗斯手里的卢比越放越不值钱，这换谁谁不憋屈啊？ 其实卢比之所以这么没存在感，核心问题就是印度的生产力不行。你想啊，货币的信用说到底得靠实体 经济撑着，人家拿着你的钱，得能买到实实在在的东西才行。中国为啥能成为"世界工厂"，人民币能越 来越吃香？就因为全球各国拿着人民币，小到手机、衣服，大到汽车、机械设备，几乎啥都能买到。 可印度呢，连自己国内的很多商品都得靠进口，造不出别人需要的东西，货币自然没人愿意要，全球对 卢比的需求量极小，这也导致过去3年俄罗斯与印度的贸易合作始终处于被动接受的状态。 不过风水轮流转，现在轮到印度求着俄罗斯了。之前印度一直跟在美国屁股后面，想借着美国的势力在 亚太地区搞事情，可后来美印因为贸易摩擦、技术封锁闹得不可开交，关系彻底破裂。这时候印度才发 现，自己在国际上没啥靠山了，只能转头求俄罗斯，甚至想拉上中国一起制衡美国。 普京对印度的信任程度其实有限，为啥这么说呢 ...

这并不算意外，关键是印度竟然也答应了。印度的石油公司已经用人民币结算了几笔订单，这让很多人感到有些惊讶。 在俄印石油贸易中，印度扮演着"买方大户"的角色。俄油对俄罗斯来说的确是一项紧急生意，因为除了中国和印度，几乎没有其他国家愿意直接 从俄罗斯买油。印度还怀着雄心，希望把卢比推向国际市场。此前在与俄罗斯的交易中，卢比用过一段时间，但由于在实际结算中几乎没有作 用，后来也就放弃。 另外，阿联酋迪拉姆的稳定性较差，波动大、流通性不足，美元也不能直接用来结算，给俄罗斯带来压力。因此，俄罗斯转而寻求人民币作为国 际结算货币。印度买家在这件事上并没有犹豫，直接与俄方达成共识，选择以人民币结算石油。 看起来好像不可思议，但其实早有布局。尽管人民币在全球通过SWIFT结算的份额在下降，使用中国的CIPS（人民币跨境支付系统）结算人民币 的人数和金额却在增加，货物贸易用人民币在国际上并非新鲜事。 据路透社10月8日的报道，俄罗斯的石油出口企业已经要求印度公司以人民币来结算。以前他们允许用美元、迪拉姆和人民币三种方式结算，但现 在改成只收人民币。 过去印度不愿意使用人民币，原因之一是中印关系并不太友好—but 随着两国关系的改 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise of gold prices and the implications for the global monetary order, particularly focusing on the increasing role of the Chinese yuan as a potential alternative to the US dollar in international trade and finance [3][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On October 7, 2025, gold prices reached a historic high of $4000 per ounce, marking an increase of over 50% within the year [3]. - This surge is attributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts and a notable decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped nearly 10% this year [3]. - The rise in gold prices reflects a broader market sentiment seeking alternatives to the dollar amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [3][4]. Group 2: Yuan's Internationalization - As of Q1 2025, the yuan accounted for 2.12% of global foreign reserves, ranking sixth, significantly lower than the dollar (57.74%) and euro (20.06) [4]. - Despite China's growing economic influence, the yuan's international status does not yet match this influence, indicating a need for a multi-faceted approach to enhance its global role [4][5]. - A notable shift is occurring, with an increasing number of enterprises opting for yuan settlements in cross-border transactions, surpassing dollar settlements for the first time in Q2 2025 [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - A survey conducted by Renmin University revealed that 68% of enterprises used yuan for cross-border trade settlements in Q4 2024, with 71% citing asset security as the primary reason [6][9]. - The yuan's appeal is growing due to its perceived stability and usability, as companies seek to avoid reliance on the dollar [9][10]. - The influx of foreign capital into Chinese assets, particularly after the Fed's interest rate cuts, indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards the yuan [9][10]. Group 4: Infrastructure Development - The establishment of the Digital Yuan International Operation Center in Shanghai aims to enhance the yuan's usability in cross-border transactions, supporting a more integrated financial infrastructure [12][14]. - The center's launch is part of a broader strategy to create a transaction-driven infrastructure for the yuan, moving from policy-driven to market-driven adoption [12][15]. - The digital yuan's infrastructure is designed to facilitate seamless transactions, ensuring compatibility with existing systems while enhancing liquidity and efficiency [14][15]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The article emphasizes the need for a dual-driven model of "yuan + digital currency" to enhance the yuan's role in global trade and finance [18]. - The transition of the yuan from a "optional" asset to a "must-have" currency in global markets requires comprehensive financial reforms and international collaboration [18][19]. - The evolving global monetary landscape suggests that the yuan is positioned to play a significant role in reshaping future financial systems, driven by market choices rather than mere policy directives [19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in China's foreign exchange reserves to $3.34 trillion contrasts sharply with the depreciation of the RMB against the USD, raising questions about the effectiveness of reserve accumulation in stabilizing the currency [2] Group 1: Data Paradox - The growth in reserves is accompanied by concerns over structural imbalances, with the proportion of USD assets falling to 58% from a peak of 73% in 2014, while holdings in EUR, JPY, and gold have increased to 32% [2] - The opportunity cost of holding USD assets is significant, with a yield of 2.3% compared to 4.8% for 10-year US Treasury bonds, resulting in an annualized opportunity cost exceeding $15 billion [2] - The RMB depreciation is driven by three main factors: widening interest rate differentials, narrowing trade surpluses, and diverging policy expectations [2] Group 2: Arbitrage Opportunities - The onshore-offshore price gap for the RMB has widened, creating an arbitrage opportunity with a potential annualized return of 1.9% [2] - The offshore RMB liquidity has tightened, as indicated by the spike in CNH Hibor to 13.4%, the highest since 2013, increasing the cost of arbitrage [2] - The derivatives market shows a 2.1% arbitrage opportunity between NDF and DF rates, with a significant increase in foreign institutional trading volume [2] Group 3: Policy Responses - The central bank has reactivated counter-cyclical factors in the exchange rate management model, adjusting the counter-cyclical coefficient to 0.8 to limit depreciation [2] - Capital controls have been tightened, requiring banks to conduct thorough reviews of large foreign exchange transactions, particularly in technology and real estate sectors [2] - The central bank has signaled stability by emphasizing the adequacy of reserves to manage short-term fluctuations and has increased gold holdings to diversify reserve assets [2] Group 4: Underlying Contradictions - Concerns about the quality of reserves are rising, particularly regarding the liquidity risks associated with the $1.1 trillion in US Treasury bonds held by China [2] - The balance between market-driven and interventionist approaches in exchange rate formation is challenged, with a significant increase in direct interventions by the central bank [2] - The real effective exchange rate has appreciated by 23% since 2015, impacting export competitiveness and increasing import costs for key commodities [2] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term arbitrage opportunities are expected to narrow by Q4 2025 as the US Federal Reserve nears the end of its rate hike cycle [2] - Long-term reforms are anticipated, including optimizing reserve structures and enhancing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate [2] - The need for a new balance in reserve management, exchange rate mechanisms, and industrial upgrades is emphasized to ensure sustainable financial security [2]