Group 1: RMB Internationalization Progress - The RMB internationalization index increased significantly from 0.0025 in 2001 to 2.84 in 2025, indicating substantial growth[10] - By 2024, the cross-border payment amount of RMB in the ASEAN region is projected to reach 8.9 trillion yuan, significantly higher than other regions such as the Middle East (1.1 trillion yuan) and Africa (155.3 billion yuan), accounting for 13.8% of total RMB cross-border payments[7] - The capital account cross-border payment amount is a major driver of RMB usage in ASEAN, with a growth rate of 50.7%[26] Group 2: Comparison with Yen's Development - The historical development of the yen in Asia provides insights for RMB's growth in ASEAN, highlighting the importance of regional cooperation and financial stability[39] - The yen's internationalization faced challenges due to limited offshore market openness and capital controls, which the RMB can avoid by leveraging its current advantages[46] - Unlike the yen, which struggled with capital flow imbalances, the RMB's current structure supports a more balanced approach to internationalization[46] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The future of RMB internationalization in ASEAN will depend on leveraging its advantages while avoiding historical pitfalls faced by the yen, aiming for high-quality expansion globally[7] - Risks include the potential for RMB to face similar challenges as the yen, such as limited regional trade settlement and financial cooperation[46] - By 2025, RMB's share in global payments is expected to reach 1.93%, still relatively low compared to developed currencies[17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the macro - environment, including China's economic situation, global central bank policies, and the geopolitical situation of the Iran war, and also conducts in - depth research on the precious metals market. It concludes that the US economy may face recession risks due to the Iran war, and the precious metals market will be affected by factors such as central bank policies and geopolitical risks, with gold prices expected to first decline and then rise, and the gold - silver ratio having further upward space [27][40][53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - **China's economic performance**: In early 2026, China's economy had a good start. In January - February, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, with manufacturing investment up 3.1% and infrastructure investment up 11.4%, while real estate investment shrank by 11.1%. Social消费品 retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Industrial output increased by 6.3% year - on - year, with mining, manufacturing, and public utilities all showing growth. The real estate market continued to decline, with new construction, completion, sales area, and sales volume all shrinking. International trade improved, with exports increasing by 21.8% year - on - year and the trade surplus increasing by 26.3%. CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI shrank by 0.9% year - on - year [4][5][7][15]. - **Financial and fiscal situation**: In February, M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and social financing stock increased by 8.2% year - on - year. From January - February, the general fiscal revenue shrank by 1.4% year - on - year, and the general fiscal expenditure increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with the general fiscal deficit rate possibly reaching 10.8% [20]. 3.1.2 Policy - From 2024 to 2025, most central banks globally cut interest rates. By the end of 2025, the net interest - rate cut ratio of global central banks weighted by economic scale reached 86.4%. In 2026, the four major central banks of the US, Europe, China, and Japan increased their total assets, and the broad - money supply of the four major economies increased by 19.8% year - on - year. However, since mid - March, due to concerns about the long - term Iran war and rising inflation, global central bank tightening concerns have suddenly increased. The Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve have all shown tightening stances [21][22][24]. 3.1.3 Geopolitics - The Iran war has a long - term risk. Since 2018, the US has unilaterally withdrawn from the JCPOA and imposed sanctions on Iran. In early 2026, the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran, and Iran counterattacked. As of late March, the situation has been tense, with the US considering various military options, and Iran insisting on ending the war on its own terms. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global energy trade, and the international community has taken some measures to relieve the energy crisis, but the effect is limited. The war may lead to a global economic recession [28][30][37]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - US Treasury yields first declined and then rebounded. The 2 - year and 10 - year yields fell to 3.38% and 3.97% on February 27 and then rebounded to 3.96% and 4.42% respectively. The US dollar index first declined and then rose. It is expected that US Treasury yields will first rise and then fall, and the US dollar index will continue to decline after short - term fluctuations [41][42]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong but with limited appreciation space, with pressure levels at 6.8 and 6.67 [45]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - In the spot market, gold and silver ETF holdings first increased and then decreased. As of March 26, SPDR gold holdings decreased by 4.4% from the peak at the end of February, and SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 7.2% from the peak at the end of January. In CFTC positions, institutions are more optimistic about gold but cautious about silver [46][47]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, gold is in a bull market due to geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system. In the medium - term, gold is also in a bull market due to global central bank easing. In the short - term, gold has undergone a three - wave adjustment since the end of January 2026 and may face further downward pressure before the risk of "high oil prices - rising inflation - central bank tightening" is fully priced in. However, it is expected to strengthen again after the transition from stagflation trading to recession trading. The gold - silver ratio is expected to rise further, with the upper pressure range at 70 - 80 [50][53]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - related Charts - The gold - silver ratio in London and Shanghai has changed. The negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index has weakened, the negative correlation between gold and US Treasury real yields has strengthened, the positive correlation between gold and crude oil has significantly weakened, and the positive correlation between gold and silver has also weakened [54].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant revaluation of global assets, shifting the market logic from "rate cut expectations" to "inflation and geopolitical risk" [5][37]. - The conflict has evolved through a chain reaction: conflict → supply shock → rising inflation → asset repricing, with energy supply becoming the primary variable affecting asset pricing [6][9]. - Brent crude oil prices surged from approximately $66 per barrel before the conflict to a peak of $109.78 per barrel, representing an increase of over 58%, indicating that the price rise is driven by supply constraints rather than demand [14][37]. Group 2 - Gold has underperformed during this conflict, with COMEX gold futures experiencing a maximum decline of over 18%, primarily due to a stronger US dollar and rising interest rate expectations, which have diminished gold's safe-haven appeal [19][20]. - The US dollar has strengthened due to safe-haven demand and expectations of delayed rate cuts, while the Chinese yuan has shown resilience, depreciating less than the dollar has appreciated [23][24]. - Global stock markets have exhibited a divergent pattern, with European and Japanese markets experiencing significant declines, while US stocks have remained relatively stable, reflecting varying degrees of dependence on energy imports [28][29]. Group 3 - Traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds have seen rising yields in the US and Germany, indicating a shift in market dynamics where inflation expectations and central bank policies are dominating over safe-haven demand [33][34]. - The current macro environment suggests that government bonds are no longer purely safe-haven instruments but are highly dependent on each country's inflation and policy cycles [34][37]. - Overall, the conflict has not only caused short-term market volatility but has also led to a fundamental shift in global asset pricing logic, with inflation assets like oil leading the market, while gold has become a significant cognitive bias asset [37][38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the potential for cooperation between China and the UK amidst rising global geopolitical uncertainties, as highlighted by both Chinese Ambassador Zheng Zeguang and OMFIF Chairman David Marsh during the fourth China-UK Investor Forum [3][4][8]. Group 2 - Zheng Zeguang outlined four key areas for cooperation: expanding goods trade, deepening service trade, consolidating bilateral investment, and exploring third-party markets. He noted that bilateral trade has exceeded £120 billion, and there is a welcome for the UK to increase exports to China [5][6]. - The service trade cooperation is particularly emphasized, especially in finance, asset management, insurance, and fintech. China plans to further open its service sector, allowing foreign-funded hospitals and promoting financial market connectivity [6][5]. Group 3 - David Marsh pointed out the current international situation is more severe than in previous forums, with a shift from temporary hardline measures to an escalating cycle of confrontation. He criticized the uncertainty of US policies, which he believes increases Europe's motivation to seek stable cooperation frameworks [8]. - Marsh suggested that supporting the establishment of RMB market infrastructure should be a key direction for London's financial sector. He mentioned that the People's Bank of China is setting up mechanisms to facilitate foreign reserve management institutions' access to the Chinese market [9][8]. Group 4 - The article discusses the potential for RMB internationalization, noting that its current share in global foreign exchange reserves is about 3%, indicating room for growth. London is highlighted as a significant offshore RMB business center, with expectations for increased use of RMB in cross-border settlements and financial investments [12][13].

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, leading to upward pressure on global oil prices and inflation expectations, which may suppress global macro liquidity [1][4] - The report suggests an overweight allocation to Chinese equities and oil due to the current market conditions [1][4] - The transition from reflation trading to stagflation trading is noted, with a recommendation to focus on short to medium-term bonds over long-term bonds due to rising inflation expectations [1][4][16] Group 2 - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese stock market, recommending an overweight position in A-shares, as the market is expected to find a significant bottom [16][18] - The performance of major asset classes is reviewed, with specific attention to the recent declines in various indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index [9][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact asset pricing [15][17] Group 3 - The report outlines a tactical asset allocation strategy, with a focus on equities (45%), bonds (45%), and commodities (10%), reflecting a balanced approach to risk and return [19][20] - The tactical asset allocation model has shown a cumulative excess return of 5.85% relative to the benchmark, indicating effective positioning in the current market environment [21][22] - Specific recommendations include an overweight in oil due to geopolitical tensions and a cautious stance on long-duration bonds amid rising inflation pressures [17][18]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the "Wash Path" in the context of the U.S. reserve framework, highlighting the transition from a scarce reserve framework to an ample reserve framework post-2008 financial crisis [5][6][7] - The "Wash Path" aims to return to a scarce reserve framework, allowing the Federal Reserve to control reserve supply through open market operations, thus flexibly managing the federal funds rate [7][8] - The report outlines a three-step process under the "Wash Path": interest rate cuts, easing bank regulations, and balance sheet reduction, with a focus on promoting technological advancements and increasing bank lending [8][10] Group 2: Market Overview - Global equity markets experienced a general decline, while Hong Kong stocks rose; major commodity futures such as gold, oil, aluminum, and copper saw price drops [11] - The report notes a significant supply gap in the oil market, potentially exceeding 10 million barrels per day, due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which could impact downstream demand for other commodities [12] - The domestic equity market showed mixed performance, with financial and consumer sectors leading, while the industrial sector faced declines; the average daily trading volume was 21,972 billion yuan [12][19] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for ten consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50% [15] - The report highlights the People's Bank of China's commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to ensure liquidity and balance between short-term and long-term economic health [16] - The report indicates that the U.S. Treasury yields have shown upward trends, with the 2-year yield rising to 3.88% and the 10-year yield to 4.39% [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives specific trading suggestions for various futures products, including long - term bullish, short - term trading, range trading, and short - selling opportunities [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple futures sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and cost changes [1] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, recommend buying on dips. US inflation cools, Fed rate - cut expectations decline, and geopolitical factors may put pressure on the stock index [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term RRR cuts or rate cuts is over, and the market will focus on quarter - end institutional behavior and overseas situations. China's inflation data may influence the market [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery and low trading volume [9] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The rebar futures price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with low static valuation and ongoing inventory accumulation [10] - **Glass**: Short - selling on rallies. Supply increases, inventory rises, demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor, limiting the upside potential [11][12] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term range trading or wait - and - see, with an operating range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, economic recession expectations, and inventory changes need to be closely monitored [14][15] - **Aluminum**: Suggest strengthening observation. The price is affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand changes, and inventory levels. It is recommended to allocate more while controlling positions [17] - **Nickel**: Suggest holding moderately on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but demand is weak in some sectors [18][19] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is stable. The price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [20] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to trade in a range. Geopolitical situations and inflation expectations affect the prices, and it is recommended to wait and trade cautiously [22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [24][25] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish and volatile. The cost is low, supply is high, domestic demand is weak, and exports are expected to support the price in the short term [26] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish and volatile. Demand from alumina production provides support, and exports may increase due to geopolitical factors. Spring maintenance and downstream restocking support the price [29] - **Styrene**: Bullish and volatile. Geopolitical factors drive up the oil price, providing cost support. Low inventory and export support the price [30] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish and volatile. Geopolitical conflicts support the cost, and supply - demand conditions improve marginally [31] - **Rubber**: Bullish and volatile. Cost support is strong, but inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to buy on dips and not chase the high [32] - **Urea**: Bullish and range - trading. Supply increases, demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers supports the price, and inventory levels are relatively low [34] - **Methanol**: Bullish and range - trading. The conflict in Iran may cause supply shortages, and domestic supply and demand are in a complex situation [35] - **Soda Ash**: Short - selling on rallies. Supply is high, inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to remain under pressure [37] Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish and volatile. Global cotton supply and demand change, and the price is expected to be bullish after the festival [38] - **Apples**: Bullish and volatile. The trading is stable, with some regional differences in price and demand [40] - **Red Dates**: Expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the Xinjiang region is based on quality [41] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a short - selling on rallies strategy; for contract 09, treat it as a range - bound market. The short - term price is under pressure due to oversupply, and the long - term price depends on capacity reduction [42][43] - **Eggs**: Range - bound. Supply is sufficient, demand is in a transition stage, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [44] - **Corn**: Bullish and volatile. Be cautious when chasing high prices. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply is expected to be relatively loose [45] - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish and volatile. Be cautious when chasing long positions in the 05 contract. The price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports, Brazilian harvest, and domestic supply [46] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish and volatile. Follow the international crude oil price. It is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils. Different oils have different supply - demand situations [47][48][49]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of Shanghai as a global financial center, focusing on its role in the internationalization of the Renminbi and the promotion of cross-border financial services under the national top-level design [3]. Group 1: Shanghai's Role in International Finance - Shanghai is positioned as a core hub for financial reform and opening up, aiming to become a global center for Renminbi asset allocation and risk management [3][5]. - The city is set to enhance its offshore financial capabilities, particularly through the development of free trade zones and offshore economic (financial) functional areas [5][6]. Group 2: Enhancements in Cross-Border Renminbi Usage - In 2025, Shanghai's cross-border Renminbi payment volume reached 32.4 trillion yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year, accounting for 46% of the national total [10]. - The city plans to facilitate cross-border Renminbi settlements by expanding the coverage of convenience policies and enhancing the efficiency of fund transfers [11]. Group 3: Attracting Foreign Investment - Shanghai's advantages in attracting foreign investment include a rich variety of financial products, high levels of internationalization, and robust financial infrastructure [13]. - The city will continue to improve its business environment for foreign investors by expanding pilot programs for free trade accounts and enhancing offshore financial services [14]. Group 4: Addressing Challenges in Cross-Border Trade - The article highlights the need to improve the convenience of foreign exchange management for traditional trade and support the healthy development of new trade formats like cross-border e-commerce [16]. - It also addresses the challenges posed by "small currency" exchange difficulties and emphasizes the importance of providing comprehensive financial services tailored to the needs of enterprises [16]. Group 5: Risk Management and Financial Security - The article stresses the importance of balancing financial openness with risk prevention, advocating for enhanced monitoring of cross-border capital flows [17]. - It calls for the integration of technology in risk management, utilizing big data to improve the efficiency of financial oversight [17]. Group 6: Digital Currency Initiatives - The establishment of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center in Shanghai is seen as a significant step in enhancing the city's financial capabilities, with three major platforms launched to facilitate cross-border digital payments [19][20].

Economic Outlook - The surge in oil prices has rapidly increased U.S. inflation expectations, alongside disappointing February non-farm employment data, raising concerns about stagflation and recession in the U.S. market[1] - The overall economic data in the U.S. has been better than expected year-to-date, with a forecast of steady growth in Q1 due to fiscal and monetary stimulus[1] Inflation Projections - The upcoming February CPI is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.25-0.3%, with core CPI around 0.2%, indicating continued improvement in inflation pressure[1] - If oil prices remain at $150 per barrel in March and April, the year-on-year CPI growth could increase by 1.80 and 2.04 percentage points, respectively, leading to a CPI of 4.19% and 4.43%[1] Market Reactions - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant rise in oil prices, with WTI crude increasing by 35.63% during the week, while global stock markets generally declined[2] - The Korean stock market, heavily reliant on imported oil, fell by 10.56% due to these tensions and rising oil prices[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected developments in the Iranian situation, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[1][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economy is undergoing a paradigm shift from globalization to geopolitics, with geopolitical risks becoming a core variable in asset pricing. The global economy is at the end of the depression phase of the previous information technology cycle, and 2026 - 2027 is expected to be a global economic trough, followed by a new cycle centered on artificial intelligence and new energy [4]. - The world economic pattern is being reshaped, with the US - China game leading to the reorganization of the order. The US economy shows signs of stagflation and faces policy dilemmas, while the Chinese economy has both challenges and resilience. Other economies are also experiencing differentiation [4]. - The core driving forces include the technological revolution, energy transformation, and geopolitical games, which will have a profound impact on the global economy and asset prices [4]. - In 2026, different asset classes have different investment strategies, such as gold as a core asset, copper and aluminum as strategic assets, and attention to structural opportunities in various markets [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Historic Turn in the Context of a Century - Long Change - **Paradigm Shift from Globalization to Geopolitics**: The global political - economic pattern is shifting from globalization to geopolitics, with geopolitical risks becoming a key factor in asset pricing. Trump's potential radical trade policies are an extreme manifestation of this trend [17]. - **Positioning from the Perspective of the Kondratieff Cycle**: The global economy is at the end of the depression phase of the previous information technology cycle, expected to end in 2026. This will resonate with the bottom of the Kitchin inventory cycle, and 2026 - 2027 may be a significant global economic trough [18]. Chapter 2: Fission and Reconstruction of the Global Macroeconomy - **World Economic Pattern and Order Reorganization**: The "east - rising and west - falling" trend is non - linear. The US - China game will lead to the reorganization of the monetary system, trade rules, and international political order, and the global economy is moving towards "grouping" and "camp - forming" [23]. - **US Economic Stagflation and Policy Dilemmas**: The US economy shows signs of stagflation, with weakening growth momentum and stubborn inflation. The government's debt has exceeded $38 trillion, and the Fed is in a dilemma between cutting interest rates and controlling inflation [24][27]. - **China's Economic "New Normal"**: China's economy faces challenges such as population aging, high leverage, and real - estate adjustment, but also shows resilience in exports and the development of new - quality productivity. In 2026, active fiscal policies and real - estate stabilization policies will support the economy [49]. - **Differentiation and Risks of Other Major Economies**: Europe's manufacturing PMI is contracting, facing recession risks; Japan's interest - rate hike cycle is fragile, which may trigger a Japanese debt crisis; India's economic growth shows signs of slowing down [71][74][75]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Core Driving Forces: Technology, Energy, and Politics - **New - Round Technological Revolution**: The core driving force is "artificial intelligence + new energy + digital finance". The Juglar cycle is in an upward phase, spurring investment in high - tech industries. AI will reshape traditional industries and drive demand for underlying hardware [80]. - **Energy Revolution and Reconstruction**: The new - energy revolution is reshaping the global energy demand pattern, but resource nationalism is on the rise, increasing global mining costs. Localization policies distort global pricing [81]. - **Great - Power Games and Geopolitics**: The US - China game is a core variable, with a "fight - but - not - break" situation in areas such as technology decoupling and key - mineral control. Geopolitical conflicts in various regions bring uncertainties to the global market [89]. Chapter 4: 2026 Asset Allocation Strategies - **Precious Metals**: Gold is a "ballast stone" due to central - bank purchases, safe - haven demand, and interest - rate cuts. Silver has strong industrial demand and is suitable for tactical allocation [91]. - **Industrial Metals**: Copper is a core strategic asset. Supply is limited, while demand from the new - energy revolution is strong, making copper prices likely to rise [99]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Global crude - oil demand growth is slowing, but supply is fragile. Geopolitical events drive short - term price fluctuations, and investors should focus on structural opportunities [103]. - **Equity Markets**: Global stock markets face complex situations. US stocks face risks of AI bubbles and profit pressure, while A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have structural opportunities [104]. - **Fixed - Income Markets**: US Treasury yields may steepen, with limited downward space for long - term yields. Chinese bonds have downward space for yields and are suitable for risk - aversion [109]. - **Foreign - Exchange Markets**: The US dollar may show a volatile pattern, and the RMB is expected to remain stable within the range of 6.8 - 7.2 [114]. Chapter 5: Risk Warnings and Summary Outlook - **2026 Investment Strategy Summary**: In 2026, the market will be highly volatile and uncertain, with structural opportunities. The core idea of asset allocation is to focus on defense, seize opportunities, and emphasize structure. Strategic allocation of gold, core offensive in strategic metals, and attention to China's new - quality productivity direction [125].