全球长债风暴

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全球长债警报拉响!政治风暴冲击巴黎:法国股债双杀,股指大跌2%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-26 08:48
Core Viewpoint - The trust vote initiated by French Prime Minister François Béru is causing a "double whammy" in French assets, reflecting a broader global long-bond storm amid rising government debt and interest rates [1][5][9]. Group 1: Political Context - Prime Minister Béru announced a trust vote for his government on September 8, aimed at pushing through a controversial €44 billion austerity plan amidst economic growth pressures and public demand for fiscal support [1][6]. - The political deadlock in France has raised concerns about the government's stability, with major opposition parties indicating they will vote against the trust motion, potentially leading to the government's collapse [7][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, French assets faced significant sell-offs, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 9 basis points to 3.51%, and the spread against German bonds widening to 78 basis points, the highest since April [1][8]. - The CAC 40 index dropped by 2%, continuing a previous decline of 1.6%, while broader European indices also fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 1.2% and the DAX down by 0.85% [1][2]. Group 3: Global Implications - The situation in France is indicative of a larger "slow-motion crisis" in the global long-bond market, with rising yields in Germany and Japan reflecting increasing government debt levels and concerns over fiscal discipline [9][11]. - The global environment of rising interest rates and high debt levels is leading to increased scrutiny of fiscal policies and political stability, with France's political gamble striking a sensitive nerve in the market [12].