Group 1 - U.S. Treasury prices experienced a slight decline ahead of the issuance of 30-year bonds and employment data, leading to the largest weekly gain being narrowed [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 1 basis point to 4.34%, recovering slightly from a 7 basis point drop due to strong demand for bond issuance [1] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue $22 billion in 30-year bonds, contributing to a slight increase in long-term bond yields [1] Group 2 - Investors are focusing on fiscal policy, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that the recent tax reform will increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade [1] - The borrowing costs for the UK government have also risen due to concerns about the need to issue more bonds to cover expenditures [1] - In Japan, bond yields surged by 20 basis points earlier in the week amid fears that politicians would loosen fiscal policy to gain voter support ahead of elections [1] Group 3 - Upcoming U.S. employment data is a key focus, with economists predicting a slight increase in initial jobless claims to 235,000 for the week ending July 5 [2] - Weekly initial jobless claims are seen as crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction [2] - Swap trading indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this month and potentially lower them twice by 25 basis points each before the end of the year [2]

Group 1 - The bid-to-cover ratio for Japan's 20-year government bond auction is 3.15, which is slightly below the 12-month average of 3.29 [1]

日本20年期国债拍卖认购倍数为3.15，为自三月以来最高。 ...

日本超长期国债收益率为何再起？ 报告要点： 专题报告 2025-07-10 7 月上旬，日本超长期国债收益率再起。7 月 8 日，日本 30 年期国债收益率一度上升 12.5 个 基点，达到 3.09%的阶段性高位；40 年期国债收益率亦攀升至 3.36%。为何日债收益率显著上 行？首先，本轮收益率上行的核心在于市场对日本财政前景的重新评估，即将于 7 月 20 日举 行的日本参议院选举成为市场关注焦点。当前执政联盟面临多数席位流失的风险，在野党的政 策主张则更偏向于财政扩张。其次，日本长债收益率的上行还是货币政策变化、通胀上升、财 政和人口结构失衡及外部冲击共同作用的结果。从长期视角看，日本人口老龄化趋势不断深化， 进一步限制财政空间与长期投资需求，对长期国债的稳定配置需求造成不利影响。日本正面临 结构性转型的窗口期，财政与债务结构面临调整，而国际环境的复杂性又可能削弱其缓冲能力， 未来仍面临波动上行风险。后续应主要关注美日关税谈判进展、超长债拍卖情况以及参议院选 举结果。若选举结果削弱执政联盟地位，市场或将重新定价对财政扩张的预期，从而对日本长 期国债收益率构成上行压力。 蒋文斌 国债研究员 从业资格号： ...

Core Points - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds has decreased by 2.0 basis points, reaching 2.490% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the 20-year bond yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1]

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds increased by 5.5 basis points to 2.92% [1] - The yield on 20-year bonds rose by 3.5 basis points to 2.405% [1]

日本政府努力维稳市场效果显现，周四日本30年国债拍卖需求强劲，但全球对政府财政扩张的担忧持续，仍然推高了日本国债 收益率。 本周四，日本财政省进行了最新的30年期国债拍卖。表面看起来需求还不错，投标倍数达到3.58，是今年2月以来最高的水平， 也远高于6月拍卖时的2.92，过去12个月平均水平为3.33。 分析称，这个投标倍数说明，想买的资金数量是发行量的3.58倍，显示认购需求不差。相比5月那次惨淡的长债拍卖，这次结果 已经救场了不少。 但细看也有隐忧，中标的最低价格比市场预期要低，反映出一部分资金是保持谨慎的，部分买家为了弥补风险要求更高收益 率。 明治安田资产管理公司资深投资经理Shuichi Ohsaki评论称，这次拍卖有一定的需求，但也能看出市场相当谨慎。这次拍卖感觉 有点弱，但不太可能引发债市动荡。 全球赤字焦虑推高长期收益率 彭博策略师Mark Cranfield也认为，这次拍卖整体数据还算稳健，投标倍数提高到3.58是个亮点，但最低中标价格低于预期。真 正的考验还在二级市场，30年债收益率2.8%左右的收益率，相比年内高点3.2%并不特别有吸引力。同时，英国债市的波动也可 能再度引发全球主要经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds has increased by 3 basis points, reaching 2.355% [1] Group 1 - The rise in yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government debt in Japan [1]

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds has decreased by 2.5 basis points, reaching 2.325% [1]

日本10年期国债收益率下跌1.5个基点至1.4%，20年期收益率下跌2个基点至2.32%。 日本10年国债收益率 ...