公募REITs估值

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公募REITs周报(第31期):指数继续调整,各板块普跌-20250825
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-25 03:24
证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 公募 REITs 周报(第 31 期) 指数继续调整,各板块普跌 主要结论:本周中证 REITs 指数继续调整,下跌 1.62%,在年初较快上涨以 后,估值逐渐回归理性。产权类 REITs 和特许经营权类 REITs 平均周涨跌幅 为-1.93%、-1.10%,从主要指数周涨跌幅对比来看:深 300>中证转债>中证 全债>中证 REITs。各个类型 REITs 均收跌,保障房、水利设施、市政设施 REITs 跌幅最大。截至 8 月 22 日,公募 REITs 年化现金分派率均值为 6.4%, 产权 REITs 股息率比中证红利股股息率均值高 34BP,经营权类 REITs 内部收 益率均值与十年期国债收益率利差为 209BP。 中证 REITs 指数周涨跌幅为-1.9%,年初至今涨跌幅为 6.7%。截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日 , 中 证 REITs ( 收 盘 ) 指 数 收 盘 价 为 838.00 点 , 整 周 (2025/8/18-2025/8/22)涨跌幅为-1.9%,表现弱于沪深 300 指数(+4.2%)、 中证转债指数(+2.8%)以及中证全 ...
公募REITs周报(第23期):指数收跌,消费REITs迎新机遇-20250629
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-29 15:00
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - This week, the China Securities REITs Index closed down. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 2.1% and - 1.8% respectively. From the comparison of the weekly price changes of major indices, CSI Convertible Bonds > CSI 300 > CSI All - Bond > CSI REITs. The average daily turnover rate of REITs throughout the week increased slightly compared to the previous week. All types of REITs in the entire market closed down, with energy, ecological, and municipal facilities REITs having smaller declines. As of June 27, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. The dividend yield of property REITs was 143BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 209BP. The central bank and other six departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", supporting the issuance of REITs for eligible consumer infrastructure, bringing new opportunities for the development of consumer REITs. China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT completed the first domestic rental housing expansion and fundraising, realizing a "first - issuance + expansion - fundraising" closed - loop for rental housing REITs and establishing a paradigm for normalizing refinancing [1]. Summary by Directory Market Trends - **Secondary Market Trends** - As of June 27, 2025, the closing price of the CSI REITs (closing) index was 880.9 points, with a weekly price change of - 1.46%, performing worse than the CSI Convertible Bonds Index (+2.08%), the CSI 300 Index (+1.95%), and the CSI All - Bond Index (- 0.09%). Year - to - date, the price change rankings of major indices were: CSI REITs (+11.6%) > CSI Convertible Bonds (+6.6%) > CSI All - Bond (+1.2%) > CSI 300 (- 0.3%). In the past year, the return rate of the CSI REITs index was 11.4%, with a volatility of 7.0%. The return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bonds Index but higher than that of the CSI All - Bond Index. The volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bonds Index but higher than that of the CSI All - Bond Index. The total market value of REITs rose to 206.1 billion yuan on June 27, a decrease of 500 million yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate throughout the week was 0.61%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week [2][8][14]. - Energy, ecological, and municipal facilities REITs had smaller declines. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 2.1% and - 1.8% respectively. Among different project - type REITs, all closed down, with the three project types with the smallest average declines being energy (- 0.8%), ecological (- 0.9%), and municipal facilities (- 1.3%). The top three REITs in terms of weekly price increases were AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT (+0.95%), China Asset Management China Resources Commercial REIT (+0.64%), and CICC Shandong Expressway REIT (+0.47%) [3][19][23]. - In terms of trading activity, municipal facilities REITs were the most active this week, and transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume. The former had an average daily turnover rate of 2.4% during the period, accounting for 2.8% of the total REITs trading volume. The latter had an average daily turnover rate of 0.6%, accounting for 25.9% of the total REITs trading volume. In terms of the capital flow of different REIT products this week, the top three in terms of net inflow of main funds were China Asset Management China Resources Commercial REIT (21.81 million yuan), Penghua Shenzhen Energy REIT (16.2 million yuan), and China Asset Management Heda High - tech REIT (10.79 million yuan) [3][24][25]. - **Primary Market Issuance** - As of June 27, 2025, there were 2 REIT products in the declared stage on the exchange, 3 products had been accepted, 5 products had received feedback, 5 products had passed and were waiting to be listed, and there were 7 first - issued products that had passed and were already listed [27]. Valuation Tracking - REITs have both bond and equity characteristics. From the bond perspective, under the constraint of mandatory high dividends, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs as of June 27 was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. From the equity perspective, the valuation of REITs is judged through relative net - value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO. The relative net - value premium rate reflects the relationship between the market value and fair value of the fund, similar to the PB indicator of stocks; IRR is the internal rate of return calculated using the cash - flow discount method; P/FFO is the current price divided by the cash flow generated from operations. The relative net - value premium rate is a long - term perspective, evaluating the secondary - market valuation level from the valuation of underlying assets; P/FFO is a short - term perspective, valuing the distributable cash flow based on the recent asset operation situation to judge the current investment return rate [29]. - Different project types of REITs have different valuation indicators. For example, municipal facilities REITs had a relative net - value premium rate of 79.1%, a P/FFO of 8.7, an IRR of 7.5%, and an annualized dividend rate of 13.6%. In addition, the dividend yield of property - type REITs was compared with the CSI Dividend stock dividend yield, and the internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs was compared with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield. As of June 27, 2025, the dividend yield of property REITs was 143BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 209BP [30]. Industry News - On June 19, the central bank and other six departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing to support the issuance of public - offering REITs for eligible consumer infrastructure, further expanding the "asset pool" for consumer REITs and strengthening the institutional and financial foundation for project implementation [35]. - On June 24, the winning bid results of Jiangxi Water Group's public - offering REITs were announced, with Huatai - PineBridge Fund winning the fund manager qualification. On the same day, the tender for Wenzhou Shanxi Water Conservancy's public - offering REITs was completed, with CICC and CICC Fund's consortium winning the bid [35]. - On June 25, China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT completed the first domestic rental housing expansion and fundraising, raising approximately 946 million yuan. The expansion included 4 affordable rental housing projects, and rental housing REITs achieved a "first - issuance + expansion - fundraising" closed - loop [35]. - On June 26, CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the first domestic infrastructure REIT focusing on the automobile manufacturing industry chain, raising a total of 1.088 billion yuan [35]. - On June 27, CICC China Green Development Commercial REIT was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and hit the daily limit on the first day, with a 30% increase from the issue price, showing the strong attractiveness of consumer - type commercial assets in the REITs market [36].