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伊利股份(600887):Q3基本符合预期 液态奶库存合理轻装上阵
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-01 00:27
Core Insights - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a revenue of 90.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.48 yuan per share, totaling 3.036 billion yuan [1] Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 28.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, with a net profit of 3.23 billion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year [1] - The revenue breakdown for Q3 2025 includes liquid milk at 18.81 billion yuan (down 8.8%), milk powder at 7.68 billion yuan (up 12.6%), cheese at 1.20 billion yuan (up 17.4%), and ice cream at 0.59 billion yuan (up 219.4%) [2] Market Trends - The company faces pressure in the ambient segment, with a decline in demand for ambient white and ambient sour milk, while dairy beverages show positive growth [2] - Low-temperature products are expected to continue their positive growth trend, with low-temperature fresh milk projected to grow over 20% year-on-year [3] - Milk powder sales, excluding a competitor, are expected to show double-digit growth for both infant and adult formulas, indicating improved competitiveness [3] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 33.8%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced raw milk price benefits and competitive promotional activities [6] - The sales expense ratio decreased significantly, while the net profit margin fell by 0.3 percentage points to 11.1% [6] Asset Management and Dividends - Asset impairment significantly improved, with Q3 2025 impairments at 0.027 billion yuan compared to 0.183 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [7] - The company aims to maintain a high dividend level similar to 2024, indicating confidence in achieving its revenue targets for the year [7] Investment Outlook - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, maintaining revenue estimates while increasing net profit projections for these years [8] - The current closing price of 27.41 yuan corresponds to a P/E ratio of 16/15/14 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [8]