Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][21]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 7.6% in the first half of 2025, indicating short-term pressure on its main business. However, the report remains optimistic about the company's enhanced attributes in the highway industry ETF [1][6]. - The company is recognized as a comprehensive highway operator with growth logic, benefiting from the integration advantages of a central enterprise platform and a history of acquiring quality road assets to enhance performance [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 12,711 million, with a growth rate of 30.6%. For 2025, revenue is expected to increase slightly to 12,889 million, reflecting a growth rate of 1.4% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 5,322 million in 2024, with a significant decline of 21.3%. However, it is expected to recover to 5,598 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.2% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.78 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.82 yuan in 2025, and further to 0.87 yuan in 2026 [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 12.43 yuan, representing a potential upside of 19% from the current price of 10.41 yuan [2][6]. Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 56.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.36% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of highway operations and differentiated toll policies [6]. - The investment operation segment generated revenue of 44.78 billion yuan, down 7.23% year-on-year, while the intelligent transportation segment saw a growth of 24.39% [6]. - The total mileage of highways operated by the company increased from 14,745 kilometers in 2024 to 14,865 kilometers in 2025, indicating ongoing expansion efforts [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report provides a profit forecast of 56.0 billion, 59.6 billion, and 63.5 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.87, and 0.93 yuan, and PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 respectively [6]. - The company has consistently increased its cash dividend payout ratio from 40.13% in 2018 to 53.44% in 2024, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 15.6 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of 13.38 CNY [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a 5% decline in net profit excluding non-recurring items in 2024, while maintaining a stable dividend payout ratio of 53.44% [2][7]. - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 12,711 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.6%, primarily due to the consolidation of招商中铁 at the end of 2023 [3][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline by 21.3% in 2024, with a gradual recovery expected in the following years [3][7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 12,711 million CNY - 2025: 12,889 million CNY (1.4% growth) - 2026: 13,474 million CNY (4.5% growth) - 2027: 14,113 million CNY (4.7% growth) [3][8] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024: 5,322 million CNY - 2025: 5,567 million CNY (4.6% growth) - 2026: 5,930 million CNY (6.5% growth) - 2027: 6,320 million CNY (6.6% growth) [3][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 0.78 CNY - 2025: 0.82 CNY - 2026: 0.87 CNY - 2027: 0.93 CNY [3][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 17 in 2024 to 14 in 2027 [3][8]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is expected to remain stable around 1.3 to 1.1 over the forecast period [3][8]. Operational Highlights - The company’s total operational road mileage increased from 14,745 kilometers in 2023 to 14,785 kilometers in 2024, with a significant revenue increase in the investment and operation segment [7]. - The traffic volume for 2024 is expected to be 15,920 million vehicles, with toll revenue projected at 9,450 million CNY, both showing a slight decline compared to the previous year [7]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.17 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 28.44 billion CNY, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 3.12% based on the current stock price [7].