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国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250427
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-27 09:29
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The rebound of oil prices may be near the end, and attention should be paid to the downward risk in the second quarter. There is still a small probability that the price will break the previous low in Q2. When the macro - sentiment stabilizes, pay attention to the oversold risk of oil prices (especially the domestic SC), and the fundamental bullish factors for the trend are accumulating. Brent may be difficult to fall below $55 per barrel [5][6]. - In the short - term, the second quarter may repeatedly trade the deflation caused by the mutual imposition of tariffs between major countries and economies, and major asset classes may resonate and fall again. The current gold - oil ratio has continued to soar, and the cumulative decline has fully priced in the recession according to the relationship between crude oil demand and global economic fluctuations in 2024. There is an oversold risk in the short - term, and it is not the best short - allocation target, so it is difficult to break the previous low even if it falls [6]. - In the long - term, there are several potential positives for oil prices, including a significant contraction in Iranian crude oil supply under US sanctions, relatively low absolute inventory levels in major regions, OPEC + production cuts, and a slowdown in the growth of US shale oil supply. Once the macro - sentiment stabilizes, there is a high probability of a trend rebound, which is more likely to occur in the middle or second half of the year [6]. Summary by Directory Overview - The rebound of oil prices may be near the end, and attention should be paid to the downward risk in the second quarter. The view is not optimistic about Q2, with a small probability of breaking the previous low. In a stable macro - environment, pay attention to the oversold risk of oil prices, especially the domestic SC. Brent may not fall below $55 per barrel. The strategy is to wait and see on the long - short side, try short positions on rallies in bands, and consider bottom - fishing around mid - year if the recession expectation is revised and domestic demand negatives are fully released. Also, pay attention to long - spread arbitrage at low prices in the future [6]. Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio continues to strengthen. Overseas inflation continues to decline, and the risk of recession increases under the background of the "trade war". The RMB exchange rate strengthens slightly, and social financing stabilizes [10][16][17]. Supply - Supply shows regional differentiation, and Kazakhstan has a strong willingness to increase production. Venezuela's production is expected to decline due to US sanctions. Saudi Arabia plans to increase production, Iraq has difficulty in compensating for over - production, Iran's production decreases due to US sanctions, and Russia's long - term production may be difficult to recover to pre - pandemic levels. The US domestic crude oil production forecast is lowered, and its exports are affected by trade policies. OPEC + unexpectedly increased production in May 2025 and plans to gradually lift voluntary production cuts from April 2024 to June 2026. Seven over - producing countries need to cut production on average to offset over - production, and Kazakhstan may have difficulty meeting the compensation target [7]. - The number of US shale oil drilling rigs and production decline slightly [53]. Demand - Continued attention should be paid to the change of global trade flows under the influence of US sanctions and tax increases. In Asia, Japan and South Korea's demand declines, China's diesel/gasoline demand is expected to decrease, but China's crude oil imports increase in March 2025. India's demand growth is significant. In the Americas, US demand is strong at the beginning of the year. In Europe, Turkey's refiner purchases change due to sanctions. In Africa, Nigeria's domestic demand fluctuates, and its refiner diversifies its crude oil sources [8]. - The operating rates of US and European refineries may gradually recover seasonally. China's state - owned refinery operating rate declines, while private refineries' operating rate rises [57][58]. Inventory - US commercial inventories and Cushing regional inventories accumulate seasonally but are significantly lower than historical averages. European crude oil inventories rebound, while diesel and gasoline inventories decline. Domestic refined oil profit margins decline [61][72][73]. Price and Spread - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread rebounds slightly, the difference between sensitive oil arriving at the port recovers, and the SC - Brent spread rebounds. The net long position rebounds [77][78][82][84].