近年来，国际油气市场风云变幻，而如今这场能源博弈的焦点转向了俄罗斯与中国之间的石油贸易。随着印度的突然拒收，数以千计的俄罗斯油轮在中国近 海排队等待，仿佛一场气势磅礴的"清仓大甩卖"正在进行。这背后的原因既是美国对俄制裁的强大压力，也是国际能源格局重塑的必然结果。 在美国政府的制裁威胁下，印度宁愿放弃与罗斯的交易，也不愿冒着与华盛顿关系紧张的风险。这样的决定对俄罗斯而言，无疑是雪上加霜。在失去印度这 样的重要客户后，俄罗斯将不得不更加依赖中国这一单一市场供应链，其能源出口的灵活性与安全性进一步受限。 相较于印度的慌乱退缩，中国则表现出了独特的战略定力。在当前的国际环境中，俄罗斯希望通过压价来争夺中国市场，但中国并非没有底气。多年来，中 国已经实现了石油进口来源的多元化，来自中东、非洲等地的进口油轮依然源源不断，形成了稳定的多元供给体系，彻底打破了俄罗斯对中国市场的垄断企 图。 对中国而言，乌拉尔原油的低价吸引力显而易见，但它并不是必需品。中国买家对于原油的要求极为严格，特别是在质量和运输距离上，ESPO混合原油无 疑是更优的选择——该原油品质更高、运输路线更短，能有效降低炼制成本与物流风险。这种情况下，俄罗斯 ...

近年来，国际油价的波动不再是偶然，而是全球政治与经济博弈的直接体现。尤其在俄乌冲突之后，俄罗斯面对西方制裁与市场转变，正经历一场前 所未有的能源价格危机。在这个背景下，印度近期拒绝进口俄罗斯原油，这不仅使得俄罗斯的经济状况更加严峻，还让中国成为了俄罗斯石油出口的 最后希望。 对于中国来说，俄罗斯原油的降价无疑带来了前所未有的"采购良机"。不过，值得注意的是，中国的炼油厂通常不采购质量较低的乌拉尔原油，更多 倾向于高硫含量较低的ESPO混合原油。在此情况下，即便面对诱人的价格，采购还需考虑经济效益与加工成本。如果没有足够的折扣，乌拉尔原油 的吸引力仍然有限。 然而，中国在这场交易中的立场非常强势。俄罗斯对中国的依赖加剧，将使得中方在谈判中拥有更大的话语权。对于中国而言，低价俄油可以作为战 略储备的可选项，而非必需品。这种局面意味着，俄方为了继续保持现金流，可能会被迫进一步降价，从而形成恶性循环。 从长远来看，这场石油价格战并不仅仅是一时的市场波动，更是全球能源格局重构的缩影。随着欧洲与俄罗斯关系的紧张以及印度逐渐采取"拉开距 离"的策略，俄石油在国际市场上的竞争力急剧下降。俄罗斯能源企业为了维持生存，不得不将更 ...

Core Insights - Despite pressure from the United States, India continues to purchase Russian oil, with Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) making payments for five batches of oil to be delivered in December [1] - IOC has procured approximately 3.5 million barrels of Russian ESPO crude oil at prices close to Dubai quotes, scheduled for delivery at eastern Indian ports [1] - IOC's procurement strategy includes a mix of Russian ESPO and Sokol crude for early next year, while also considering low-sulfur crude from West Africa and the United States [1] Group 1 - The U.S. government has been pressuring India to halt Russian oil purchases, even imposing high tariffs on Indian imports [1] - Indian Oil Corporation's CFO, Anuj Jain, stated that the company intends to maintain its cooperation with Moscow as long as transactions comply with sanctions [1] - IOC's procurement documents specify that sellers must ensure the oil is not sourced from entities sanctioned by the U.S., U.K., EU, UN, or India [1]

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly. OPEC+ has decided to temporarily halt production increases in Q1 2026, which is marginally positive for the supply side. However, the inventory build - up rate in Q1 2026 may reach 3 million barrels per day, and the current policy alone is difficult to reverse the oversupply. Mid - term oil prices still face continuous oversupply pressure, and short - selling is recommended in operations [7]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI crude oil opened at $59.94, closed at $60.99, with a high of $61.18, a low of $59.59, a daily increase of 1.60%, and a trading volume of 16.75 million lots. Brent crude oil opened at $63.94, closed at $65.09, with a high of $65.31, a low of $63.60, a daily increase of 1.61%, and a trading volume of 30.98 million lots. SC crude oil opened at 470.8 yuan/barrel, closed at 462.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 470.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 461.7 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 1.52%, and a trading volume of 7.78 million lots. India has started tendering for crude oil purchases in early 2026, retaining Russian oil but requiring that the producers and terminals of the goods are not under sanctions. Lukoil's overseas assets are continuously affected by US sanctions, and the West Qurna - 2 oil field project has suffered force majeure and may withdraw from operation later [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the continuous oversupply pressure on mid - term oil prices, short - selling is considered [7]. 2. Industry News - Indian Oil Corporation's tenders for early 2026 include Russian ESPO Blend and Sokol crude oil, and it also welcomes quotes for low - sulfur crude from regions such as West Africa and the US. - Despite new sanctions, Russia's oil exports in November have remained stable. - Commerzbank expects Brent crude to trade at $60 per barrel and WTI at $57 per barrel in 2026. - The IEA believes that under the current policy scenario, oil demand will not peak before 2050 [8]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption. Data sources include Bloomberg, EIA, Wind, and the Research and Development Department of CCBI Futures [9][11][12]

Group 1 - Recent shifts in international energy dynamics have highlighted the changing oil trade between Russia, India, and China, with Indian refiners adjusting their procurement strategies to reduce spot purchases of Russian Urals oil [1] - India has significantly increased its oil imports from Russia, with daily imports rising to 1.75 million barrels since 2022, making Russia India's largest oil supplier, accounting for over 35% of its total oil imports [1] - Despite the higher refining costs and complex processing of Urals oil, its price advantage and Russian discount strategies have allowed it to maintain a presence in the Indian market [1] Group 2 - China, as one of the largest crude oil importers globally, emphasizes a diversified energy supply strategy, with its external energy dependence exceeding 70% [2] - ESPO blend crude oil from Russia plays a crucial role in China's imports, accounting for over 60% of Russian oil supplies, due to its compatibility with Chinese refining equipment and lower transportation costs [2] - Although Russia has proposed selling Urals oil at discounted prices, Chinese refiners remain cautious, weighing various factors such as cost-effectiveness and equipment compatibility when selecting crude oil types [2] Group 3 - China and Russia's economic and energy cooperation is based on principles of equality, mutual benefit, and win-win outcomes, free from third-party interference [4] - China maintains an independent and autonomous approach to energy strategy, making decisions based on its own needs and interests to ensure the security and stability of energy supply [4] - The choice of crude oil procurement and quantities will be determined by China according to its actual circumstances and market dynamics, reflecting its strategic wisdom and independent stance in the energy sector [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the shifting dynamics in the international energy market, particularly the changes in oil trade between Russia, India, and China, with India reducing immediate purchases of Russian Ural oil and Russia seeking to redirect this oil to China at a discount [1][2]. - India has significantly increased its oil imports from Russia since 2022, with daily imports rising to 1.75 million barrels, making Russia the largest oil supplier to India, accounting for over 35% of India's total oil imports [1]. - Ural oil, favored by India, is a blend of heavy high-sulfur and light low-sulfur crude, which, despite higher refining costs and complex processes, remains competitive in the Indian market due to its price advantage and discounts from Russia [1]. Group 2 - China, as one of the largest crude oil importers globally, emphasizes a diversified energy supply strategy, with over 70% dependency on external sources, and ESPO blend crude oil constitutes over 60% of its imports from Russia [2]. - ESPO blend crude, produced in Russia's Far East, is favored by Chinese refiners due to its low sulfur and medium-light characteristics, which align well with the equipment used in Chinese refineries, and the procurement volume for 2024 has reached 80 million tons [2]. - Despite Russia's willingness to sell Ural oil at discounted prices, Chinese refiners remain cautious in their selection of crude oil types, considering factors such as cost and equipment compatibility, as Ural oil's refining process is less compatible with existing Chinese refinery setups compared to Middle Eastern oil and ESPO blend crude [2]. Group 3 - The energy trade between China and Russia is based on principles of equality, mutual benefit, and win-win cooperation, unaffected by any third-party interference [4]. - China maintains an independent and autonomous approach to its energy strategy, making decisions based on its own needs and interests to ensure the security and stability of its energy supply [4].

Group 1 - The article highlights that India has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil, with an average daily import of 1.75 million barrels in the first half of this year, making Russia the largest oil supplier to India, accounting for over 35% of its oil imports [1] - Russian oil, particularly Urals crude, is being offered at discounted prices to attract buyers, as Indian refineries reduce their purchases of Urals crude [1] - China, as the world's largest crude oil importer, maintains a diversified energy supply strategy, with Russian oil constituting about 19% of its total imports, and ESPO blend crude being favored due to its compatibility with Chinese refining equipment [1][2] Group 2 - The article notes that Chinese refining equipment is specifically configured for different types of crude oil, with a preference for Middle Eastern oil and ESPO blend crude over Urals crude, which is less favored despite potential discounts from Russia [2] - It emphasizes that China and Russia engage in normal trade relations that are not influenced by third parties, allowing China to dictate its own energy purchasing decisions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical struggle over energy security has intensified, particularly between the U.S. and China, with significant implications for global oil markets and trade dynamics [1][3][10]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Responses - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has threatened to impose up to 100% secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, which has caused significant volatility in global energy markets [3][6]. - Trump's ultimatum to Russia regarding oil imports aims to cut off funding for the ongoing conflict, with a deadline set for August 1 [1][6]. - The U.S. government's hardline stance has been met with skepticism, as analysts warn that such tariffs could lead to a new trade war and increase inflation in the U.S. [6][10]. Group 2: China's Position and Strategy - China has firmly stated its commitment to maintaining energy cooperation with Russia, with projected imports of Russian oil reaching $76.4 billion in 2024, accounting for 30% of its total oil imports [5]. - The Chinese government has drawn a clear line against unilateral sanctions and has emphasized the importance of national sovereignty in its energy dealings [5][10]. - China's energy strategy includes significant investments in Russian projects, such as the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline and Arctic LNG projects, which rely on Chinese funding and technology [5][10]. Group 3: Global Energy Market Dynamics - The geopolitical tensions are reshaping the global energy landscape, with a shift towards a multipolar energy structure involving China, Russia, and Iran [10]. - Emerging market countries are increasingly resistant to U.S. sanctions, with nations like Turkey, Hungary, and Serbia continuing to import Russian oil [10]. - Analysts suggest that the U.S. strategy may backfire, as high oil prices resulting from sanctions could contradict political commitments to control inflation [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - The export volume of ESPO blend crude oil from Kozmino Port in Russia's Far East is expected to increase from 3.6 million tons in June to 4 million tons in July [1] Group 1 - The expected increase in export volume represents a rise of approximately 11.1% from June to July [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second bottoming is nearing completion, and attention should be paid to the rebound. There is still a chance for a trend increase in the second half of the year, such as Brent rebounding above $80 per barrel [6]. - The current gold - oil ratio has soared continuously, and the cumulative decline has fully priced in the recession according to the relationship between crude oil demand in 2024 and global economic fluctuations. There is a short - term oversold risk, and it is not the best short - allocation target, so it is difficult to break the previous low even if it falls. The actual increase in production by OPEC+ still has uncertainties, and the negative impact may be limited [8]. - In the long term, there are several potential positive factors for oil prices, including a significant contraction in Iranian crude oil supply under US sanctions, relatively low absolute inventory levels in major regions, OPEC+ production cuts, and a slowdown in the growth of US shale oil supply. Once the macro - sentiment stabilizes, the probability of a trend rebound is relatively high, which is more likely to occur in the middle or second half of the year [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio fluctuates at a high level [14]. - Overseas inflation continues to decline, and the risk of recession increases under the background of the "trade war" [20]. - The RMB exchange rate strengthens slightly, and social financing stabilizes [22]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ core member countries: In May and June 2025, eight OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Algeria, Russia, Oman, Kazakhstan) raised their production quotas for two consecutive months, with a total increase of 822,000 barrels per day (411,000 barrels per day per month), three times the original plan. In April, the total OPEC+ production was 33.8 million barrels per day, lower than the target of 33.99 million barrels per day, but the actual production still exceeded the target by 30,000 barrels per day when considering the compensation mechanism [10]. - Non - OPEC+ countries: The US shale oil production is expected to peak at 9.3 million barrels per day in August 2025 and then decline. The rig count continues to decrease, and the number of DUC wells (drilled but uncompleted wells) increases. Shale oil companies need a WTI price close to $70 per barrel to maintain growth, and the industry is entering a "mature recession period" [10]. - Other countries: The production and export situations of countries such as Venezuela, Kazakhstan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Norway, and South Sudan have different impacts on the oil market. For example, the US sanctions on Iran may lead to a contraction in Iranian oil supply, while Kazakhstan has been over - producing [9][10]. 3. Demand - China: Chinese buyers may increase their demand for June - loaded crude oil if Saudi crude oil remains cheaper than alternatives in the spot market. China has accelerated crude oil reserves in the past three months (February - April 2025), with the strategic reserve capacity increasing by nearly 60 million barrels. Some Chinese companies have also resumed purchasing Russian ESPO mixed crude oil [12]. - America: US demand was strong at the beginning of the year, with daily demand increasing by 1.15 million barrels year - on - year in January mainly due to extremely cold weather. The domestic crude oil consumption in the US is expected to average 20.38 million barrels per day in 2025, 70,000 barrels per day lower than the previous forecast [12]. - Europe: The demand for North Sea crude oil in Europe decreases, and the proportion of Forties east - bound exports (to Asia) rebounds from 0% in the first quarter of 2024 to nearly 50% in January - April 2025 [12]. 4. Inventory - United States: US commercial inventories and Cushing regional inventories start to decline and are significantly lower than the historical average [66]. - Europe: European crude oil inventories rebound, while diesel and gasoline inventories are being depleted [70]. - China: The domestic refined oil profit margin is repaired [72]. 5. Price and Spread - North America: The North American basis rebounds slightly, and the monthly spread rebounds. The SC monthly spread may continue to strengthen, and the net long position rebounds [76][77][79][80].