1. Hot News - Houthi rebels attacked the Greek - operated, Liberian - flagged vessel "ETERNITY C" near Hodeidah, Yemen, resulting in two deaths. It's the first seaman - fatality incident in the Red Sea since June 2024 [2] - In June, domestic retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.111 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.7%. In the first six months, the cumulative domestic retail sales reached 5.468 million, a year - on - year increase of 33.3% [2] - Trump said on the 7th that starting from August 1st, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that tariff and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [2] - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will make an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on the 7th that he expects to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues [2] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, pure benzene, methanol, urea, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - In the night - session, different commodity sectors had varying performances. Non - metallic building materials rose 2.82%, precious metals 27.55%, oilseeds and oils 12.51%, non - ferrous metals 20.69%, soft commodities 2.84%, coal - coke - steel - ore 13.84%, energy 3.11%, chemicals 12.69%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [3] 4. Plate Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, covering various sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coke - steel - ore, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% daily, 1.54% monthly, and 4.35% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.07% daily but had a 0.33% monthly and 5.85% annual increase; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.09% daily, 0.31% monthly, and 20.38% annually [5] - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, had a 0.11% monthly increase, and a 0.09% annual increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.02% monthly, and 0.38% annually [5] - **Commodities**: The CRB Commodity Index rose 1.01% daily, 1.69% monthly, and 1.88% annually; WTI crude oil rose 0.47% daily, 5.00% monthly, but fell 5.10% annually; London spot gold fell 1.07% daily, 0.05% monthly, but rose 25.78% annually [5] - **Others**: The US Dollar Index fell 0.06% daily, had a 0.74% monthly increase, and a 10.13% annual decrease; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, had a 6.34% monthly increase, and a 2.54% annual increase [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of multiple major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premiums of some stock indices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of global asset classes in June, with global stocks leading at 4.40%, followed by commodities at 3.52%, and global bonds at 1.89%, while the US dollar showed a decline of 2.47% [2]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In June, global stocks outperformed other asset classes, with a return of 4.40% [2]. - Commodities followed with a return of 3.52%, while global bonds returned 1.89% [2]. - The US dollar experienced a decline of 2.47%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2]. Group 2: Oil Price Volatility - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil trade [4][12]. - In June, oil prices surged due to heightened geopolitical tensions but quickly retreated as concerns over supply disruptions eased [4][12]. Group 3: US Market Dynamics - The divergence between the performance of the seven major US tech stocks and the 2-year Treasury yield indicates a shift in market sentiment from recession fears to expectations of interest rate cuts [4][14]. - The decline in the 2-year Treasury yield, previously interpreted as a recession signal, did not deter the rise of tech stocks in June [4][14]. Group 4: Emerging Market Strategies - A successful arbitrage strategy involving dollar financing and investment in six emerging market currencies yielded a return of 8% since 2025, outperforming similar strategies using yen or euro financing [4][17]. - The reduced correlation between the dollar and the S&P 500 index enhances the attractiveness of the dollar for arbitrage trading [4][17]. Group 5: Fund Manager Allocations - Global fund managers have increased their allocations to emerging markets, stocks, energy, banks, and communications, while reducing exposure to euros, utilities, cash, and bonds [4][21]. - The survey indicates a significant overweight in eurozone and emerging market assets compared to US dollar assets [4][21]. Group 6: Money Market Fund Growth - The total assets under management in US money market funds reached a record high of $7 trillion in 2025, driven by their attractive yields and investor preference for safety amid market uncertainties [4][26]. - Despite the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, money market funds maintained yields around 4%, appealing to risk-averse investors [4][26]. Group 7: Dollar Index and Foreign Investment - The dollar index serves as a leading indicator for net foreign investment in US equities, with a notable correlation observed over a 12-month period [4][29]. - An increase in the dollar index typically leads to higher foreign capital inflows into US assets [4][29]. Group 8: Correlation Between Dollar and Oil - The correlation between oil prices and the dollar index has shifted from negative to positive over the past two decades, reflecting changes in global economic dynamics and energy demand [4][32]. Group 9: Historical Gold-Oil Ratio - The historical analysis of the gold-oil ratio from 1920 to 2025 shows a significant decline in its central tendency post-1970s, attributed to the decoupling of the dollar from gold and the strengthening of oil's financial attributes [4][37]. Group 10: Currency Sensitivity to Oil Prices - The Indian rupee's performance is highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations, with rising oil prices leading to increased import costs and inflationary pressures [4][40]. - The Reserve Bank of India may intervene in the forex market to stabilize the rupee amid these external pressures [4][40]. Group 11: New Taiwan Dollar Hedging Costs - The New Taiwan Dollar experienced an 11% appreciation in Q2 2025, leading to significant foreign exchange losses for Taiwanese life insurers [4][42]. - The hedging costs for the New Taiwan Dollar reached nearly 15%, reflecting heightened market volatility and increased demand for currency protection [4][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Current view: Temporarily hold off on trading, and maintain light long positions and positive spreads. The market is still expected to rebound, with the worst - case scenario being a sideways market. There is still a chance for a trending upward movement in the second half of the year, such as Brent rebounding above $75 per barrel [6]. - Logic: The current gold - oil ratio has soared continuously, and the cumulative decline has fully priced in a recession based on the relationship between 2024 crude oil demand and global economic fluctuations. There is a short - term risk of over - selling, so it is not the best short - allocation target. Even if prices fall, it is difficult to break previous lows. There are still uncertainties in OPEC+ actual production increases, so the negative impact may be limited. In the long term, there are several potential positive factors for oil prices, including a significant contraction in Iranian crude oil supply under US sanctions, low absolute inventory levels in major regions excluding floating storage, OPEC+ production cuts, and a slowdown in US shale oil supply growth. Once the macro sentiment stabilizes, there is a high probability of a trending rebound, more likely in the middle or second half of the year. China's large - scale stockpiling this round offsets the demand contraction in some regions, and the global apparent crude oil inventory shows a seasonal decline [6]. - Strategy: Hold light long positions. Once the recession expectation is revised and domestic demand negatives are fully released, consider bottom - fishing and increasing positions around mid - year. Hold positive spreads [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - The long - term US Treasury yield has fluctuated significantly, and the gold - oil ratio has declined from a high level. Overseas inflation continues to fall, and the "trade" relationship between China and the US has eased. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing has rebounded [12][18][19]. 3.2 Supply - **OPEC+ Core Members**: There are various supply situations among different countries. For example, Saudi Arabia plans to increase production in June, with an increase in supply to the Asia - Pacific region and price adjustments in different regions. Russia has agreed to accelerate production recovery, but actual increases may be postponed to the fourth quarter of 2025. Kazakhstan's production in June is expected to increase compared to May. The potential lifting of sanctions on Iran may release nearly 1 million barrels per day of supply [7][8]. - **Non - OPEC+ Members**: US shale oil production growth is expected to slow significantly in 2025, and the number of drilling rigs has decreased. Venezuela's exports to some regions are expected to decline [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - **Asia**: China has a large - scale stockpiling this round. Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to China reached a 14 - month high in June. Chinese refineries have new capacity, and some have adjusted their operations. India's refineries prefer Middle Eastern Murban crude oil, and the share of West African crude oil has decreased [9][10]. - **America**: US demand was strong at the beginning of the year, but the domestic crude oil consumption forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been lowered [10]. - **Europe**: European refinery processing volume increased in June, and the price of light crude oil in the European market was under pressure [10]. 3.4 Inventory - In the US, commercial inventories have stabilized, while Cushing region inventories have declined and are significantly lower than historical averages. In Europe, crude oil inventories have rebounded, while diesel and gasoline inventories have decreased. Chinese domestic refined oil profit margins have recovered [63][67][68]. 3.5 Price, Spread, and Position - North American basis has rebounded slightly, and the monthly spread has rebounded. SC is weaker than the external market, with a decline in the monthly spread and low valuation. Net long positions have rebounded [72][73][76].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent financial performance of a leading technology company, highlighting a significant increase in revenue and net income compared to the previous year [3] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of $50 billion for the last quarter, representing a 20% increase year-over-year [3] - Net income reached $10 billion, which is a 25% increase compared to the same quarter last year [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) rose to $5, up from $4 in the previous year, indicating strong profitability [3] Market Position - The company has strengthened its market position, capturing an additional 5% market share in the technology sector [3] - Increased demand for its products and services has been attributed to the growing trend of digital transformation across various industries [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth, projecting a revenue increase of 15% for the upcoming fiscal year [3] - Investments in research and development are expected to drive innovation and maintain competitive advantage [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second bottoming is nearing completion, and attention should be paid to the rebound. There is still a chance for a trend increase in the second half of the year, such as Brent rebounding above $80 per barrel [6]. - The current gold - oil ratio has soared continuously, and the cumulative decline has fully priced in the recession according to the relationship between crude oil demand in 2024 and global economic fluctuations. There is a short - term oversold risk, and it is not the best short - allocation target, so it is difficult to break the previous low even if it falls. The actual increase in production by OPEC+ still has uncertainties, and the negative impact may be limited [8]. - In the long term, there are several potential positive factors for oil prices, including a significant contraction in Iranian crude oil supply under US sanctions, relatively low absolute inventory levels in major regions, OPEC+ production cuts, and a slowdown in the growth of US shale oil supply. Once the macro - sentiment stabilizes, the probability of a trend rebound is relatively high, which is more likely to occur in the middle or second half of the year [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio fluctuates at a high level [14]. - Overseas inflation continues to decline, and the risk of recession increases under the background of the "trade war" [20]. - The RMB exchange rate strengthens slightly, and social financing stabilizes [22]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ core member countries: In May and June 2025, eight OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Algeria, Russia, Oman, Kazakhstan) raised their production quotas for two consecutive months, with a total increase of 822,000 barrels per day (411,000 barrels per day per month), three times the original plan. In April, the total OPEC+ production was 33.8 million barrels per day, lower than the target of 33.99 million barrels per day, but the actual production still exceeded the target by 30,000 barrels per day when considering the compensation mechanism [10]. - Non - OPEC+ countries: The US shale oil production is expected to peak at 9.3 million barrels per day in August 2025 and then decline. The rig count continues to decrease, and the number of DUC wells (drilled but uncompleted wells) increases. Shale oil companies need a WTI price close to $70 per barrel to maintain growth, and the industry is entering a "mature recession period" [10]. - Other countries: The production and export situations of countries such as Venezuela, Kazakhstan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Norway, and South Sudan have different impacts on the oil market. For example, the US sanctions on Iran may lead to a contraction in Iranian oil supply, while Kazakhstan has been over - producing [9][10]. 3. Demand - China: Chinese buyers may increase their demand for June - loaded crude oil if Saudi crude oil remains cheaper than alternatives in the spot market. China has accelerated crude oil reserves in the past three months (February - April 2025), with the strategic reserve capacity increasing by nearly 60 million barrels. Some Chinese companies have also resumed purchasing Russian ESPO mixed crude oil [12]. - America: US demand was strong at the beginning of the year, with daily demand increasing by 1.15 million barrels year - on - year in January mainly due to extremely cold weather. The domestic crude oil consumption in the US is expected to average 20.38 million barrels per day in 2025, 70,000 barrels per day lower than the previous forecast [12]. - Europe: The demand for North Sea crude oil in Europe decreases, and the proportion of Forties east - bound exports (to Asia) rebounds from 0% in the first quarter of 2024 to nearly 50% in January - April 2025 [12]. 4. Inventory - United States: US commercial inventories and Cushing regional inventories start to decline and are significantly lower than the historical average [66]. - Europe: European crude oil inventories rebound, while diesel and gasoline inventories are being depleted [70]. - China: The domestic refined oil profit margin is repaired [72]. 5. Price and Spread - North America: The North American basis rebounds slightly, and the monthly spread rebounds. The SC monthly spread may continue to strengthen, and the net long position rebounds [76][77][79][80].

Group 1 - The dynamic changes in the gold-oil ratio reflect market risk appetite, macroeconomic expectations, and geopolitical developments, serving as a leading indicator of the macroeconomy and a warning tool for systemic risks [2][3] - Historically, the gold-oil ratio has remained stable between 10 and 25 since 1970, with significant increases above 25 often preceding major financial or geopolitical events [2][6] - A significant rise in the gold-oil ratio typically indicates heightened market risk aversion and expectations of economic slowdown or recession [6][16] Group 2 - The gold-oil ratio reached historical peaks during various crises, such as 41.4 during the 1973 oil crisis and 30 during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, reflecting the interplay of geopolitical tensions and economic instability [7][10][12] - Recent increases in the gold-oil ratio are attributed to rising market risk aversion, expectations of economic recession, and weakened oil supply-demand dynamics, particularly influenced by U.S. tariff policies [16][17] - The U.S. tariff measures have escalated trade tensions, leading to downward revisions in global economic growth forecasts and increased concerns about oil demand [18][21] Group 3 - Financial institutions have adjusted their global oil demand growth forecasts downward, with Goldman Sachs predicting a reduction of 300,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 400,000 barrels per day for 2026 due to trade tensions [21] - OPEC+ has entered a production increase phase, with plans to exceed market expectations, further exacerbating concerns about oil supply surplus [22][27] - The current oil price is under pressure from three main factors: escalating U.S. tariff policies, pessimistic oil demand outlook, and OPEC+ production increases [27][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The rebound of oil prices may be near the end, and attention should be paid to the downward risk in the second quarter. There is still a small probability that the price will break the previous low in Q2. When the macro - sentiment stabilizes, pay attention to the oversold risk of oil prices (especially the domestic SC), and the fundamental bullish factors for the trend are accumulating. Brent may be difficult to fall below $55 per barrel [5][6]. - In the short - term, the second quarter may repeatedly trade the deflation caused by the mutual imposition of tariffs between major countries and economies, and major asset classes may resonate and fall again. The current gold - oil ratio has continued to soar, and the cumulative decline has fully priced in the recession according to the relationship between crude oil demand and global economic fluctuations in 2024. There is an oversold risk in the short - term, and it is not the best short - allocation target, so it is difficult to break the previous low even if it falls [6]. - In the long - term, there are several potential positives for oil prices, including a significant contraction in Iranian crude oil supply under US sanctions, relatively low absolute inventory levels in major regions, OPEC + production cuts, and a slowdown in the growth of US shale oil supply. Once the macro - sentiment stabilizes, there is a high probability of a trend rebound, which is more likely to occur in the middle or second half of the year [6]. Summary by Directory Overview - The rebound of oil prices may be near the end, and attention should be paid to the downward risk in the second quarter. The view is not optimistic about Q2, with a small probability of breaking the previous low. In a stable macro - environment, pay attention to the oversold risk of oil prices, especially the domestic SC. Brent may not fall below $55 per barrel. The strategy is to wait and see on the long - short side, try short positions on rallies in bands, and consider bottom - fishing around mid - year if the recession expectation is revised and domestic demand negatives are fully released. Also, pay attention to long - spread arbitrage at low prices in the future [6]. Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio continues to strengthen. Overseas inflation continues to decline, and the risk of recession increases under the background of the "trade war". The RMB exchange rate strengthens slightly, and social financing stabilizes [10][16][17]. Supply - Supply shows regional differentiation, and Kazakhstan has a strong willingness to increase production. Venezuela's production is expected to decline due to US sanctions. Saudi Arabia plans to increase production, Iraq has difficulty in compensating for over - production, Iran's production decreases due to US sanctions, and Russia's long - term production may be difficult to recover to pre - pandemic levels. The US domestic crude oil production forecast is lowered, and its exports are affected by trade policies. OPEC + unexpectedly increased production in May 2025 and plans to gradually lift voluntary production cuts from April 2024 to June 2026. Seven over - producing countries need to cut production on average to offset over - production, and Kazakhstan may have difficulty meeting the compensation target [7]. - The number of US shale oil drilling rigs and production decline slightly [53]. Demand - Continued attention should be paid to the change of global trade flows under the influence of US sanctions and tax increases. In Asia, Japan and South Korea's demand declines, China's diesel/gasoline demand is expected to decrease, but China's crude oil imports increase in March 2025. India's demand growth is significant. In the Americas, US demand is strong at the beginning of the year. In Europe, Turkey's refiner purchases change due to sanctions. In Africa, Nigeria's domestic demand fluctuates, and its refiner diversifies its crude oil sources [8]. - The operating rates of US and European refineries may gradually recover seasonally. China's state - owned refinery operating rate declines, while private refineries' operating rate rises [57][58]. Inventory - US commercial inventories and Cushing regional inventories accumulate seasonally but are significantly lower than historical averages. European crude oil inventories rebound, while diesel and gasoline inventories decline. Domestic refined oil profit margins decline [61][72][73]. Price and Spread - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread rebounds slightly, the difference between sensitive oil arriving at the port recovers, and the SC - Brent spread rebounds. The net long position rebounds [77][78][82][84].