Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US soybean market showed a strong upward trend due to multiple factors including natural correction, macro - economic improvement, and positive USDA reports. The supply is expected to tighten in the medium - to - long - term, and the demand remains strong, providing support for soybean prices. [3][9] - The domestic soybean meal market is in wide - range fluctuations, affected by future supply tightening and cost factors. However, deep declines are limited due to the expected tightening of international soybean supply and Brazilian price support. [3] - Rapeseed meal has more short - term market disturbances and weak demand, but in the long - run, supply is relatively tight, and the space for deep price drops is limited. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean: The US soybean price is supported by strong fundamentals. The supply pressure is limited in the short - term, and the demand is strong in export, processing, etc. The Brazilian soybean market also shows good prospects in demand and processing. [3][9] - Domestic soybean meal: It fluctuates widely. Future supply tightening and cost factors lead to an obvious inventory build - up, but deep declines are limited due to international supply and Brazilian price support. [3] - Rapeseed meal: Short - term price pressure increases due to market disturbances and weak demand, but long - term supply is tight, and deep price drops are limited. [4] Strategies - Single - side trading: Buy at the low point of the far - month contract. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy far - month call options. [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Strong demand for international soybeans and strong price support - US soybean price trend: It showed a continuous upward trend this week, driven by factors such as post - decline correction, macro - economic improvement, and positive USDA reports. [9] - Demand side: The USDA slightly increased the US soybean processing forecast, mainly due to strong demand for US soybean meal. Although US soybean sales are weakening, shipments remain strong. Brazilian demand is also improving. [9] 2. Supply pressure persists and macro - disturbances increase - Supply side: The current inventory and sales pressure of US soybeans are limited. The pressure on Brazilian soybeans may also be relatively small in the medium - to - long - term. The new US soybean crop may face a tight supply situation. [12] - Weather: The weather in South America is generally normal, with limited impact on soybean production. [12] - Macro - factors: This week, the focus was on tariff issues. Exchange rates showed significant fluctuations, with the Brazilian real depreciating and the US dollar index falling. [12] 3. Spot supply tightens, and future supply may improve - Domestic soybean meal price trend: It showed obvious fluctuations this week, affected by trade frictions, supply concerns, and Brazilian import costs. [15] - Fundamental aspects: The spot market trading volume has increased significantly. The market is tightening, and the inventory has decreased. However, the future soybean arrival pressure and macro - factors limit the reflection of the strong spot market on the futures price. [15] 4. Increased import of miscellaneous meals, and rapeseed meal continues to be weak - Rapeseed meal price trend: It follows the soybean meal market but is weaker. The increase in domestic miscellaneous meal imports eases concerns about rapeseed meal supply shortages. [18] - Fundamental aspects: The spot market trading volume has improved slightly, but overall trading is still inactive. The inventory remains at a relatively high level. In the long - run, the decline space is limited. [18] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Changes International Market - US soybean: Includes data on weekly sales, export inspections, monthly processing volume, and weekly processing profit. [21] - Brazil: Data on monthly export volume and monthly processing volume are presented. [25] - Argentina: Data on export volume and monthly processing volume are provided. [28] - Foreign premiums: Data on FOB prices of the US Gulf, Brazil, Argentina, and CNF prices of rapeseed are shown. [30] Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - Exchange rates: The exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso are involved. [37][42] - Shipping: The shipping costs from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China have decreased, with the decline rates of - 10.87%, - 12.07%, and - 8.97% respectively. [41] Supply - Data on soybean and rapeseed imports, weekly processing volume are presented. [47] Demand - Data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal pick - up volume are provided. [51] Inventory - Data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventory are shown. [53]