关税对通胀传导

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数据点评 | 通胀不再是联储核心矛盾?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 14:57
Overview - The August CPI in the US met market expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [1][3] - Core CPI also aligned with expectations, recording a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1][3] - Despite the overall CPI meeting expectations, the structure indicates limited inflationary pressure, particularly due to weak tariff-related goods and a decline in super core service inflation [1][3] Structure - The core goods CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August, up from 0.2% in July, driven mainly by new and used cars and clothing, while other categories like washing machines and medical goods showed weakness [1][15] - In the core services category, rent saw a slight increase to 0.4%, but super core services weakened, reflecting a decline in employment in related sectors [2][22] Outlook - The outlook for inflation suggests a "slower and longer" trend, with CPI expected to remain around 3.0% for the next three quarters according to Bloomberg forecasts [3][27] - The probability of the Federal Reserve implementing three rate cuts within the year has increased, driven by limited inflationary pressure and higher-than-expected initial jobless claims [3][32] - Employment trends are anticipated to be a core contradiction for the Federal Reserve's decisions moving forward, with a potential rise in unemployment rates above 4.5% being a key factor [3][32]