专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月13日，ATFX：周一，由于特朗普政府威胁要对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔提起刑事诉讼，引发市场 对美联储独立性的担忧，金价大幅上涨刷新纪录高位，随后企稳。金价在前一交易日上涨2%后，回落 至每盎司4585美元附近。美元周一走软，美国国债收益率曲线全线下跌。 特朗普总统积极呼吁降低利率，这有可能削弱美联储控制通胀的能力，并助长了所谓的"贬值交易"，即 投资者抛售美元和其他易受政治和财政冲击影响的资产。司法部对鲍威尔的调查促使总统所属共和党的 议员和财政部长斯科特·贝森特警告特朗普，此举可能对市场不利。 市场今晚迎来美国最新CPI报告，普遍预计12月核心CPI环比增长0.3%，核心年率增速从11月的2.6%小 幅回升至2.7%。本次数据恰逢美国传统假期购物季，关于假期购物，可能提振整体消费数据。另一干 扰因素是此前美国政府停摆可能造成统计偏差，核心商品或拉动通胀全面加速，但非通胀压力实际上升 所致。因此，观察重点应放在"超级核心服务通胀"（剔除住房的服务价格）。若这部分出现放缓迹象， 才能印证通胀降温趋势稳固。 在上周美国非农公布后，市场押注美联储将在更长时间内暂停降息。交易员现认为 ...

宏观经济点评 核心服务带动美国通胀超预期下行 ——美国 11 月 CPI 点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 2025 年 11 月最新通胀数据。其中 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，核心 CPI 同比上升 2.6%，均不及市场预期。 通胀全面下行，核心服务通胀是重要驱动因素 1. 总体通胀与核心通胀均出现下行，但 10 月数据缺失。由于美国政府前期关 门，10 月 CPI 的大部分数据、11 月 CPI 数据中的环比项缺失。美国 11 月 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，较 9 月下降 0.3 个百分点；核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，较 9 月下 降 0.4 个百分点，且两项数据均不及市场预期。总的看，美国通胀出现了较为 明显的下行，虽无法通过环比数据观察到具体的下行斜率，但通胀的风险或有 实质性的下降。往后看，由于 2024 年 12 月的基数相对较高，通胀水平或将继 续走低， ...

智通财经获悉，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，美联储政策制定者仍应将重心放在控制通胀上， 并警告高企的价格压力可能持续到明年，甚至更久。 博斯蒂克在周二发表的一篇文章中披露，在12月9日至10日的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上，他不 仅主张维持利率不变，还建议将利率水平一直保持到2026年。他指出，当前经济中存在的多重"顺风因 素"可能继续对通胀形成上行压力。尽管博斯蒂克今年并非FOMC的投票委员，在12月会议上，多数具 有投票权的官员最终仍支持将利率下调25个基点。 "如果潜在的通胀动力在未来数月持续存在，我担心公众和定价者最终会怀疑，FOMC是否能在合理时 间内实现通胀目标。"博斯蒂克表示。 在个人去向方面，博斯蒂克上月宣布将在任期于今年2月底届满后退休。按照规定，12家地区联储的主 席均为五年任期，需由美联储理事会重新任命。美联储理事会已于上周一致批准其余11位地区联储主席 连任，而亚特兰大联储董事会则在本周一宣布，已正式启动博斯蒂克继任者的遴选程序。 对于外界猜测其退休是否与重新任命过程中的评估压力有关，博斯蒂克回应称："这是我自己作出的决 定，完全出于个人选择。" 财经频道更多独家策划、专家 ...

Overview - The August CPI in the US met market expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [1][3] - Core CPI also aligned with expectations, recording a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1][3] - Despite the overall CPI meeting expectations, the structure indicates limited inflationary pressure, particularly due to weak tariff-related goods and a decline in super core service inflation [1][3] Structure - The core goods CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August, up from 0.2% in July, driven mainly by new and used cars and clothing, while other categories like washing machines and medical goods showed weakness [1][15] - In the core services category, rent saw a slight increase to 0.4%, but super core services weakened, reflecting a decline in employment in related sectors [2][22] Outlook - The outlook for inflation suggests a "slower and longer" trend, with CPI expected to remain around 3.0% for the next three quarters according to Bloomberg forecasts [3][27] - The probability of the Federal Reserve implementing three rate cuts within the year has increased, driven by limited inflationary pressure and higher-than-expected initial jobless claims [3][32] - Employment trends are anticipated to be a core contradiction for the Federal Reserve's decisions moving forward, with a potential rise in unemployment rates above 4.5% being a key factor [3][32]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - The overall CPI in the US increased by 2.4% year-on-year in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, which was below market expectations[2] - Core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, also falling short of market expectations[2] - Energy inflation continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% in May, while food prices increased by 2.9% year-on-year[3] Group 2: Core Inflation Insights - Core inflation remained stable, indicating that the impact of tariffs on US inflation may be less than anticipated[3] - The month-on-month growth rate of core CPI was lower than expected, which may alleviate market concerns about inflation[3] - The contribution of core goods to inflation is increasing, with core goods year-on-year growth rising to 0.28% in May[3] Group 3: Tariff Impact - Tariffs are expected to have a gradual impact on inflation, with evidence of businesses passing costs onto consumers[4] - Less than 30% of businesses chose not to pass on tariff costs, with most completing cost transfers within three months[4] - The potential for "stagflation" is currently low, as stable oil and food prices help anchor inflation expectations[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, with the first potential cut expected in Q4 2025, possibly fewer than anticipated[5] - Ongoing monitoring of inflation trends and tariff policies is essential, especially with upcoming FOMC meetings and tax legislation[5]