美联储主席鲍威尔：在评估关税影响方面，现在还为时尚早。 ...

盈信量化（首源投资）：晚间，美股市场集体呈现出高开的态势，但整体走势仍需进一步观察。与此同 时，纳斯达克中国金龙指数却未能延续之前的上涨趋势，而是进入了调整阶段。在个股表现方面，高 途、小鹏汽车以及小牛电动等股票跌幅居前，显示出一定的市场压力。 在经济数据方面，美国商务部经济分析局于当地时间6月26日公布了一系列重要数据。其中，美国2025 年第一季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）经过第三次修正后，环比按年率计算萎缩了0.5%，这一数据引 发了市场的广泛关注。此外，美国还公布了5月的商品贸易数据，显示商品贸易逆差初值为966亿美元， 进一步揭示了美国经济的某些挑战。 在就业市场方面，6月26日公布的数据显示，美国上周初请失业金人数为23.6万人，低于预期的24.5万 人，显示出就业市场的一定韧性。然而，续请失业金人数则略高于预期，达到197.4万人，这可能意味 着部分劳动者在寻找新工作方面仍面临困难。 针对上述经济数据，美联储官员也发表了看法。古尔斯比表示，就业市场保持稳定，接近充分就业水 平，并认为需要几个月的时间来明确评估关税的影响。他同时指出，特朗普提前宣布鲍威尔的继任者不 会对联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY Heavy and Weichai Power, while holding a "Hold" rating for Zhejiang Dingli [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the varying impacts of tariffs on global machinery manufacturers, with most companies expecting effects to manifest from Q3 2025. Komatsu is noted to be significantly affected, while others like XCMG and SANY Heavy are less impacted [1][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tariff Impact Assessment - Caterpillar (CAT US) expects a slight revenue decline in 2025 if tariffs remain, with additional costs estimated at $250 million to $350 million for Q2 2025, impacting 10% to 14% of Q1 2025 operating profit [3]. - Komatsu (6301 JP) anticipates a ¥78.5 billion impact for FY2025, reflecting a 30% year-on-year decline in net profit [3]. - Cummins (CMI US) has withdrawn its guidance for 2025 due to uncertainties from tariffs affecting material costs [3]. - Oshkosh (OSK US) predicts a $1 reduction in EPS guidance due to tariffs, with efforts to minimize customer impact [3]. - Terex (TEX US) expects a $0.4 EPS impact from tariffs, primarily in Q3 2025, while aiming to absorb costs [3]. - XCMG (000425 CH) estimates a minimal revenue impact of approximately ¥780 million to ¥820 million, less than 1% of total revenue [3]. - SANY Heavy (600031 CH) sees a minor impact with U.S. market revenue constituting 5% of total revenue [3]. - Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) faces a significant impact, with the U.S. market accounting for 30% of total revenue [3]. - Zoomlion (1157 HK) is viewed positively for structural overseas growth despite below-expectation results [2][3]. Investment Strategy - The report favors companies less affected by tariffs, highlighting SANY Heavy, Hengli Hydraulic, and Zoomlion for their growth potential and overseas expansion strategies [4].

英国央行料降息25个基点，首次全面评估特朗普关税"毒性"！ 贝利警告"增长冲击"，英国央行周四料降息25个基点，并可能暗示6月将进一步行动，投资者需注意这些措辞是 否被删改！ 今晚，英国央行决议撞上美国贸易协议 金十数据5月8日讯，英国央行本次决议推迟两分钟至19:02公布，预计其将第四次降息25个基点并给出关税影响 评估。特朗普称今晚十点将宣布重大贸易协议，英国官员证实与英国有关，双重因素作用下会碰撞出何种市场 火花？查看更多... ...