Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic rubber market is experiencing a rebound in sentiment due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and domestic "anti-involution" policies, with natural rubber prices rising to 14,400 yuan per ton as of July 11, an increase of 400 yuan since July 8 [1] - The current price increase is primarily driven by "anti-involution" sentiment, which may continue to boost market sentiment in the short term; however, due to expectations of increased supply both domestically and internationally, and high current inventory levels, the fundamental weakness may prevent sustained price increases [1][2] - The rubber production areas are seeing normal harvesting conditions this year, with improved weather in Hainan and increased output expected from Thailand and Vietnam, contributing to a more relaxed supply outlook [2] Group 2 - In June, the estimated import volume of natural rubber was 481,500 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons month-on-month; meanwhile, domestic inventory levels showed a slight decrease, continuing a trend of shallow declines and deep increases [3] - The demand seasonality is evident, with a notable decline in the operating rate of semi-steel tires, which fell by 3.28 percentage points year-on-year to 75.49% in Q2; some tire manufacturers are planning maintenance or reducing output due to inventory pressures [4] - The foam industry is also experiencing weak demand, with many factories operating at low capacity and cautious raw material procurement due to downgraded consumer sentiment [5] Group 3 - The profit margins in the natural rubber industry are under pressure due to multiple factors including increased supply, weak demand, and rising inventory levels, particularly affecting processors and traders [6] - As of July 10, the theoretical production cost of Hainan's natural rubber was 13,720 yuan, up 280 yuan from the previous week; however, due to weak demand, the high-price procurement sentiment has cooled, leading to a decline in purchase prices and profits [7] - The compression of profit margins is likely to weaken procurement willingness among enterprises, resulting in downward pressure on raw material prices, with the contradiction between lack of cost support and weak demand further pushing the market into narrow fluctuations [7]