1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase while demand remains stable in the second quarter. The price of natural rubber may maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to contract while demand remains stable, with increased cost - side disturbances. The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge [62]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price: Futures Market Fluctuates Widely - The uncertainty of weather in the rubber - producing areas will increase the volatility of rubber prices. International trade tariff barriers may lead to a slowdown in external demand, while domestic demand aims to keep car sales stable in the second quarter under the guidance of the stable - growth work plan [62]. 3.2 Supply: El Niño Event, Increased Uncertainty in Weather - **Global Natural Rubber Production**: In the second quarter of 2026, global natural rubber production will increase quarter - on - quarter. For example, in January 2026, the production of ANRPC members was 1,055.9 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8.3% [5][7]. - **Overseas Main - producing Countries' Exports**: The total exports of overseas main - producing countries increased year - on - year [9]. - **Demand in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea**: The demand for natural rubber in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is limited [10]. - **China's Rubber Imports**: From January to February 2026, China imported a total of 1.404 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. However, the import volume in February was 601,000 tons. The import volume of China's rubber is expected to show an increasing trend in the second quarter [13]. - **Supply of Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased. The net import of butadiene rubber turned into net export. In February 2026, the export volume of butadiene rubber was 24,896 tons, exceeding the import volume of 24,106 tons [16][22][23]. 3.3 Demand: Supported by Stable Growth - **Tire Demand**: The demand growth momentum of semi - steel tires is restricted. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased and the inventory decreased slightly, while the start - up rate of semi - steel tires slowed down and the inventory remained high. From January to February, the cumulative export volume of rubber tires reached 1.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [26][31][35]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: Automobile production and sales are stable with a slight increase. The demand for heavy - duty trucks decreased seasonally in February [36][37]. 3.4 Inventory: Inflection Point in the Accumulation of Natural Rubber Inventory - **Qingdao Natural Rubber Inventory**: The inventory in Qingdao is accumulating. As of March 13, 2026, the total inventory was 692,100 tons [39][40]. - **Exchange Inventory of Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: As of March 27, the warehouse receipt of natural rubber was 125,410 tons, and the total exchange inventory was 137,630 tons. The warehouse receipt of No. 20 rubber was 43,646 tons, and the total exchange inventory was 45,763 tons [44]. 3.5 Position: Low Position - **RU Contract Position**: The position of the RU contract is presented in the form of charts, showing the position changes of different contracts over time [45]. - **NR and BR Positions**: As of March 20, 2026, the total position of natural rubber was 209,074 lots, the total position of No. 20 rubber was 93,261 lots, and the total position of BR was 114,718 lots [47]. 3.6 Options - **Natural Rubber Options**: The historical volatility and the ratio of put - to - call positions and trading volumes of natural rubber options are presented [50][52]. - **Butadiene Rubber Options**: The historical volatility and the ratio of put - to - call positions and trading volumes of butadiene rubber options are presented [56][59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the chemical industry, highlighting its resilience and potential for recovery in demand and pricing [4][8]. Core Insights - BASF's Zhanjiang integrated base has commenced full production, marking a significant milestone as China's first wholly foreign-owned project in the heavy chemical sector, with a focus on high-end materials and special chemicals [3]. - Titanium dioxide prices have seen three consecutive increases within a month, indicating strong market dynamics and potential profitability for producers [3]. - The domestic tire industry is showing strong competitive advantages, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, with key players identified in the display materials supply chain [4]. - The phosphate chemical sector is tightening due to environmental regulations and increasing demand from the new energy sector, with recommended stocks including Yuntianhua, Chuanheng, Xingfa Group, and Batian [5]. - The fluorochemical sector is poised for recovery, with high-end fluoropolymers and fine chemicals experiencing rapid growth, suggesting investment opportunities in leading companies [5]. Summary by Sections Chemical Sector Market Review - The overall performance of the chemical sector saw the CSI 300 index decline by 1.41%, while the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rose by 3.31% [14]. - The top-performing sub-industries included potassium fertilizer (up 11.58%) and other chemical raw materials (up 6.4%) [17]. Key Industry Dynamics - BASF's Zhanjiang base is designed to meet the growing market demand in China and the Asia-Pacific region, utilizing a fully renewable energy supply and advanced digital control systems [3]. - The price adjustments in titanium dioxide reflect a collective price increase trend among major producers, indicating strong market demand [3]. Investment Themes - The tire sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with domestic companies showing strong competitive positions [4]. - The consumer electronics recovery is expected to benefit upstream material suppliers, with specific companies recommended for investment [4]. - The phosphate and fluorochemical sectors are identified as having strong fundamentals, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their market positions and growth potential [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment for rubber has shifted from relatively stable to intensified divergence between bulls and bears. The price of synthetic rubber has risen significantly due to geopolitical conflicts and butadiene plant maintenance, and the low - level buying of natural rubber has increased, leading to a warming of bullish sentiment. However, the supply - side of natural rubber is facing negative factors as domestic Yunnan has entered trial tapping, and Hainan and Vietnam are about to start tapping, increasing bearish forces. The utilization rate of tire production capacity has slightly increased, mainly due to restorative production, not a concentrated release of terminal demand. The high social inventory of natural rubber and abundant port supplies limit the upside space of natural rubber prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: - The daily - closing price of the rubber main contract increased by 30 yuan/ton to 16,460 yuan/ton, and the night - closing price increased by 95 yuan/ton to 16,505 yuan/ton. - The trading volume decreased by 37,968 lots to 205,890 lots, and the open interest of the 05 contract decreased by 5,068 lots to 102,159 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 125,410 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members increased by 918 lots to 13,504 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: - The basis of "spot - futures main contract" decreased by 30 to - 160, and the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" increased by 50 to - 860. - The monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 remained unchanged at - 45 [2] - **Spot Market**: - The foreign - market quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 all increased, with increases of 5, 15, 15, and 10 dollars/ton respectively. - The prices of substitutes, Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber, increased by 300 and 250 yuan/ton respectively. - The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber, also increased [2] 3.2 Industry News - Synthetic rubber prices rose significantly on Monday due to geopolitical conflicts and butadiene plant maintenance, and the price difference with natural rubber widened rapidly. After the previous decline of natural rubber, low - level buying gradually entered the market, and the bullish sentiment in the market recovered significantly. - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area has entered trial tapping, and Hainan and Vietnam are about to start tapping, so the negative factors on the supply side are continuously fermenting, and the bearish forces are also increasing. - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises this week was 79.37%, a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 72.24%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points month - on - month, mainly due to restorative production. - As of March 22, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% month - on - month, still at a high level. The combined inventory of bonded and general trade natural rubber in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a slight increase of 1.18% month - on - month, and the port supplies were still abundant [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term supply of synthetic rubber is expected to decrease, leading to a decline in inventory. The demand side shows that the tire enterprise's operating rate has rebounded, but there are uncertainties in exports due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The short - term synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 15,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 23,930, a decrease of 2,390. The synthetic rubber 4 - 5 spread is 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 21,430 tons, an increase of 10 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 14,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 865 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 91.98 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.18 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 87.25 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.8 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 970 US dollars/ton, with no change. The CFR Japan price of naphtha is 875.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 33.75 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price of butadiene is 1800 US dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 14,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton. The current - week value of butadiene production capacity is 159,300 tons/week, a decrease of 100 tons/week; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 76.28%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 39,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation is 54.81%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points. The monthly production of butadiene rubber is 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 81.62%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points. The current - week production profit of butadiene rubber is - 1,424 yuan/ton, a decrease of 965 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 34,400 tons, a decrease of 10,750 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 9,020 tons, an increase of 700 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.03%, an increase of 39.47 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.9%, an increase of 36.73 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 45.79 days, a decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 43.1 days, a decrease of 0.99 days. As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - Domestic tire enterprises' production schedules have basically returned to normal levels, supporting the overall sample enterprises' capacity utilization rate. However, due to the uncertainties of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, there are still export resistances in some regions, and there is a possibility of a slight decline. In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from the same period last year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 11, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 44,400 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.33% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

Core Viewpoint - During the Spring Festival holiday, natural rubber futures prices exhibited a trend of initially declining and then rising, supported by the continuous increase in Thai raw material prices and favorable impacts from the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against Trump's tariff policy, leading to a bullish sentiment in the overseas natural rubber market. The short-term outlook for natural rubber is expected to show a strong oscillating trend within a range, while macroeconomic changes may increase price volatility [3][6][8]. Price Trends - Overseas natural rubber futures prices showed a decline followed by an increase during the Spring Festival holiday, with the last trading day settlement price for the Singapore TSR20 main contract at 194.4 cents/kg, up 2.2 cents/kg (1.14%) from the last trading day before the holiday. The Japanese rubber main contract closed at 356.4 yen/kg, up 9.3 yen/kg (2.68%) [3][4][14]. - Thai raw material purchase prices continued to rise during the holiday, with the price for latex at 66 THB/kg, up 3.7 THB/kg (5.94%), and cup rubber at 57.5 THB/kg, up 1.8 THB/kg (3.23%) as of February 23 [4][15]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global natural rubber production is in a low production season, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, leading to limited raw material output. This situation, combined with rubber processing factories hoarding stock, has supported raw material purchase prices [4][15]. - In January 2026, Thailand's natural rubber export volume was 371,100 tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons (16.51%) month-on-month and a 7.43% year-on-year decline, which is bullish for prices [3]. Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's tariff policy initially boosted market sentiment, but President Trump subsequently signed an executive order to impose a 10% tariff on goods from all countries, which may lead to increased market volatility and affect natural rubber futures prices [6][17]. - China will implement zero tariffs on imports from 53 African countries starting May 1, which may lower import costs and increase the supply of African rubber, potentially exerting downward pressure on rubber prices [7][18]. Short-term Market Outlook - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, supported by high raw material prices and recovering demand as downstream enterprises resume operations. However, macroeconomic sentiment and external policy changes will play a crucial role in influencing market dynamics [8][19].

Group 1: Coal Tar Supply and Demand - This week, coal tar prices have shown a stable to slightly strong trend, ending the previous decline. Some downstream deep processing enterprises still have a strong demand for stocking, with auction prices in Linhuan rising by 55 yuan, boosting market confidence. Afternoon auction prices in Shandong and Hebei increased by 10 yuan [3][7][6]. Group 2: Carbon Black Supply and Demand - As the year-end approaches, logistics are gradually halting, and downstream full-steel tire enterprises have started their holidays, leading to a decline in the overall operating rate of the tire industry. Other rubber product enterprises have also completed their stocking and entered the holiday period. Currently, the purchasing demand from carbon black factories has weakened, with most executing previous orders and new transactions gradually ceasing [3][7][6]. - The current inventory levels of major carbon black manufacturers are not high, and there is no significant decline in production rates, with the operating rate remaining around 60%. Downstream enterprises had been actively stocking earlier, and many carbon black factories still have pending orders to fulfill. Some large manufacturers are also responsible for winter heating tasks [5][9].

Overview - The semi-steel tire industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the continuous prosperity of the passenger car market, with total sales expected to reach 650 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [1][7]. - Domestic sales are projected to be 322 million units, accounting for 49.54% of total semi-steel tire sales [1][7]. Market Policies - The Chinese government has issued several policies to support the development of the tire industry, including guidelines for high-quality development in the petrochemical sector and encouragement for foreign investment [5][6]. Industry Chain - The semi-steel tire industry consists of upstream suppliers of raw materials, midstream research and production, and downstream markets focused on passenger vehicles [6][7]. - The automotive industry is a crucial pillar of China's economy, with significant growth expected in passenger car production and sales, projected to reach 30.27 million and 30.10 million units respectively by 2025 [7]. Current Development - The semi-steel tire industry is expanding rapidly, with production expected to reach 661 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, representing 55.73% of the total tire production in China [7][8]. - Major production regions include Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guizhou, and Fujian, with Shandong alone accounting for 46% of total production [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - The market concentration of the semi-steel tire industry has significantly increased, with the top 10 companies holding a market share of 56.5% in 2024 [9]. - Linglong Tire leads the domestic market with a sales volume of 35.72 million units, capturing an 11.1% market share [9]. - Other notable companies include Zhongce Rubber and Giti Tire, with market shares of 10.4% and 7.7% respectively [9]. Key Companies - **Linglong Tire**: A comprehensive tire company focusing on design, manufacturing, and sales, with a revenue of 11.81 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, and a significant presence in the new energy vehicle sector [9][10]. - **Zhongce Rubber**: Engaged in the production of various tire types, with a revenue of 39.25 billion yuan in 2024, and a focus on expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally [10]. Development Trends - The industry is moving towards green and low-carbon production, with an emphasis on eliminating high-energy consumption and high-emission capacities [11]. - The rise of electric vehicles is driving innovation in tire technology, focusing on low rolling resistance and smart tire solutions [12]. - Domestic brands are increasingly replacing foreign brands, leading to a more concentrated market with a shift towards technology and brand competition [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report monitors the fundamentals of rubber, including futures market, spot market, and industry news, and indicates that the rubber trend strength is 0, showing a neutral view [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,080 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,085 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The trading volume was 229,543 lots, a decrease of 53,790 lots; the position of the 05 contract was 146,030 lots, a decrease of 3,983 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 500 tons to 112,070 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 2,404 lots to 26,256 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" was - 180 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan; the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" was - 980 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan; the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was 105 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The outer - disk quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 all decreased. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene increased. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market mostly decreased [2] Industry News - During the 2026 "Spring Festival", the average planned holiday days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises were about 9.17 days, 0.96 days less than the previous year. The start time of the holiday was postponed compared to last year, and the resumption time changed little. The average planned holiday days of all - steel tire sample enterprises were about 11.86 days, a slight decrease of 0.43 days. The overall resumption enthusiasm was slightly more positive than the previous year [3][4] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in shock, and slightly closing up. The intraday price center shifted slightly up to 16,180 yuan/ton. At the close, the price slightly rose 0.25% to 16,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 130 yuan/ton. After the short - term bearish sentiment was vented, Shanghai rubber futures stopped falling and stabilized. It is expected that the rubber price may maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening downward, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,269 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,239 yuan/ton. At the close, it slightly closed down 1.83% to 2,247 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 32 yuan/ton. As the bearish atmosphere intensifies, methanol futures may maintain a weak - volatile trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening downward, and significantly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 453.9 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 446.4 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price significantly closed down 4.93% to 449.4 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East weakens and the Fed's hawkish expectations strengthen, the crude oil premium has significantly retreated, and the short - term oil price has started to correct [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons or 1.23%. The bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons with a growth rate of 3.34%, and the general trade inventory was 494,100 tons with a growth rate of 0.82%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 5.10 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 2.27 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.40 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.35 percentage points. As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile export exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.03%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.45%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.22%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year. The domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.5%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 7.24%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 83.37%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 200 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 229,500 tons. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1, and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day, at a historical high. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.628 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 278,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 515,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points. As of January 27, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 96,982 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 18,190 contracts, and a significant increase of 38,211 contracts or 65.02% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. As of January 27, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 217,962 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,191 contracts, and a significant increase of 112,503 contracts or 106.68% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,900 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 16,180 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | - 280 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,247 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | 2,247 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 433.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.6 yuan/barrel | 449.4 yuan/barrel | +0.4 yuan/barrel | - 16.4 yuan/barrel | - 1.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month spreads, inventory, capacity utilization rate, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][28][40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 22, 2026, due to the strengthening of butadiene, the cost support for BR was strong, driving a strong rebound of BR. As of the time of publication, the main contract of synthetic rubber futures, BR2603, rose by more than 4% [1] - In the short - term, BR cost is strongly supported, but the operating rate and inventory of BR are both high, and butadiene is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation in February. Therefore, in the short - term, BR2603 may test the previous resistance level of 12,500 again. It is not recommended to short BR, and those who previously held long positions in BR2603 can choose to reduce positions and take profits around 12,500 [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Cost - side Driving Factors - **Short - term**: The current supply - demand situation of butadiene is good. Affected by the previous maintenance of devices, the domestic butadiene operating rate declined in January until late January when domestic devices gradually restarted. The downstream operating rate is relatively high. The latest inventory at the East China port of butadiene this week is about 34,500 tons, a significant decrease of 10,100 tons from last week. Due to tight domestic supply - demand and the expected decline in net imports, the price of butadiene is likely to rise and difficult to fall. The production profit of BR has changed from profit to loss, indicating strong cost support for BR [3] - **Medium - term**: There will be no new butadiene devices put into production in the first half of the year, but there is an expectation of new devices being put into production in the downstream industry in the second quarter. There will be a mismatch between production and supply - demand in the butadiene industry chain, and the second quarter is the traditional maintenance season for Northeast Asian ethylene, so the supply - demand of butadiene will be tight in the second quarter [3] Demand - side Driving Factors - The EU will not implement temporary anti - dumping measures, reducing the export pressure on Chinese tires. The overall orders of tire enterprises in January improved compared with last month. The cancellation of the planned anti - dumping tax on Chinese - made PCR by the EU on January 21, 2026 is beneficial to the export of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises. The orders for semi - steel tire exports to the EU improved significantly compared with last month. Coupled with the pre - "Spring Festival" stocking period at home and abroad, the overall orders are relatively sufficient, which supports the production scheduling of tire enterprises in January [8] Market Outlook - **Cost side**: The high inventory of butadiene at ports in the short - term has been alleviated, with weak import and strong export expectations. The price of butadiene is likely to rise and difficult to fall. In February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream operating rate will decline, and many domestic butadiene devices restarted in late January. It is expected that butadiene will enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period, suppressing the upward space of butadiene prices [10] - **Supply side**: As butadiene strengthens, the production of BR has changed from profit to loss. However, since the futures market is stronger than the spot market, the supply is expected to decline slowly, and the inventory of BR will remain at a high level in the short term [10] - **Demand side**: The orders of tire enterprises were sufficient in January, and it is expected that Chinese tires will still rush to export to the EU from January to March. BR is still much cheaper than natural rubber, maintaining high cost - effectiveness. Therefore, the demand for BR is expected to improve in the first quarter [10]