热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯天然橡胶分析师 陈智慧 非洲胶零关税5月落地 胶价或呈利空压制 【导语】春节假期期间，新胶及日胶期货价格呈现先跌后涨趋势，泰国原料价格持续上涨使成本端支撑 偏强，叠加美国政府判罚特朗普关税违法利好影响，海外天然橡胶市场价格走高。受基本面支撑，短期 天然橡胶或呈现区间偏强震荡走势；宏观氛围变化或加大胶价波动区间。 海外天然橡胶期货市场价格先跌后涨 整体重心较节前抬升 春节假期间海外天然橡胶期货价格呈现先跌后涨走势，春节假期期间最后一个交易日主力合约结算价格 较春节前最后一个交易日结算价格上涨。其中，截至2月23日（春节假期间最后一个交易日），新加坡 TSR20主力2605合约结算价194.4美分/千克，较节前最后一个交易日上涨2.2美分/千克，涨幅1.14%；截 至2月20日（春节假期间日胶最后一交易日），日胶主力2607合约收盘价格356.4日元/公斤，较节前最 后一个交易日上涨9.3日元/公斤，涨幅2.68%。春节假期期间，泰国原料收购价格延续上涨趋势，成本 端支撑下胶价重心走高；叠加春节假期期间，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府关税政策属 ...

Group 1: Coal Tar Supply and Demand - This week, coal tar prices have shown a stable to slightly strong trend, ending the previous decline. Some downstream deep processing enterprises still have a strong demand for stocking, with auction prices in Linhuan rising by 55 yuan, boosting market confidence. Afternoon auction prices in Shandong and Hebei increased by 10 yuan [3][7][6]. Group 2: Carbon Black Supply and Demand - As the year-end approaches, logistics are gradually halting, and downstream full-steel tire enterprises have started their holidays, leading to a decline in the overall operating rate of the tire industry. Other rubber product enterprises have also completed their stocking and entered the holiday period. Currently, the purchasing demand from carbon black factories has weakened, with most executing previous orders and new transactions gradually ceasing [3][7][6]. - The current inventory levels of major carbon black manufacturers are not high, and there is no significant decline in production rates, with the operating rate remaining around 60%. Downstream enterprises had been actively stocking earlier, and many carbon black factories still have pending orders to fulfill. Some large manufacturers are also responsible for winter heating tasks [5][9].

Overview - The semi-steel tire industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the continuous prosperity of the passenger car market, with total sales expected to reach 650 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [1][7]. - Domestic sales are projected to be 322 million units, accounting for 49.54% of total semi-steel tire sales [1][7]. Market Policies - The Chinese government has issued several policies to support the development of the tire industry, including guidelines for high-quality development in the petrochemical sector and encouragement for foreign investment [5][6]. Industry Chain - The semi-steel tire industry consists of upstream suppliers of raw materials, midstream research and production, and downstream markets focused on passenger vehicles [6][7]. - The automotive industry is a crucial pillar of China's economy, with significant growth expected in passenger car production and sales, projected to reach 30.27 million and 30.10 million units respectively by 2025 [7]. Current Development - The semi-steel tire industry is expanding rapidly, with production expected to reach 661 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, representing 55.73% of the total tire production in China [7][8]. - Major production regions include Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guizhou, and Fujian, with Shandong alone accounting for 46% of total production [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - The market concentration of the semi-steel tire industry has significantly increased, with the top 10 companies holding a market share of 56.5% in 2024 [9]. - Linglong Tire leads the domestic market with a sales volume of 35.72 million units, capturing an 11.1% market share [9]. - Other notable companies include Zhongce Rubber and Giti Tire, with market shares of 10.4% and 7.7% respectively [9]. Key Companies - **Linglong Tire**: A comprehensive tire company focusing on design, manufacturing, and sales, with a revenue of 11.81 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, and a significant presence in the new energy vehicle sector [9][10]. - **Zhongce Rubber**: Engaged in the production of various tire types, with a revenue of 39.25 billion yuan in 2024, and a focus on expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally [10]. Development Trends - The industry is moving towards green and low-carbon production, with an emphasis on eliminating high-energy consumption and high-emission capacities [11]. - The rise of electric vehicles is driving innovation in tire technology, focusing on low rolling resistance and smart tire solutions [12]. - Domestic brands are increasingly replacing foreign brands, leading to a more concentrated market with a shift towards technology and brand competition [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report monitors the fundamentals of rubber, including futures market, spot market, and industry news, and indicates that the rubber trend strength is 0, showing a neutral view [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,080 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,085 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The trading volume was 229,543 lots, a decrease of 53,790 lots; the position of the 05 contract was 146,030 lots, a decrease of 3,983 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 500 tons to 112,070 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 2,404 lots to 26,256 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" was - 180 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan; the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" was - 980 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan; the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was 105 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The outer - disk quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 all decreased. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene increased. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market mostly decreased [2] Industry News - During the 2026 "Spring Festival", the average planned holiday days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises were about 9.17 days, 0.96 days less than the previous year. The start time of the holiday was postponed compared to last year, and the resumption time changed little. The average planned holiday days of all - steel tire sample enterprises were about 11.86 days, a slight decrease of 0.43 days. The overall resumption enthusiasm was slightly more positive than the previous year [3][4] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in shock, and slightly closing up. The intraday price center shifted slightly up to 16,180 yuan/ton. At the close, the price slightly rose 0.25% to 16,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 130 yuan/ton. After the short - term bearish sentiment was vented, Shanghai rubber futures stopped falling and stabilized. It is expected that the rubber price may maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening downward, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,269 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,239 yuan/ton. At the close, it slightly closed down 1.83% to 2,247 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 32 yuan/ton. As the bearish atmosphere intensifies, methanol futures may maintain a weak - volatile trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening downward, and significantly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 453.9 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 446.4 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price significantly closed down 4.93% to 449.4 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East weakens and the Fed's hawkish expectations strengthen, the crude oil premium has significantly retreated, and the short - term oil price has started to correct [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons or 1.23%. The bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons with a growth rate of 3.34%, and the general trade inventory was 494,100 tons with a growth rate of 0.82%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 5.10 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 2.27 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.40 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.35 percentage points. As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile export exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.03%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.45%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.22%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year. The domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.5%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 7.24%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 83.37%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 200 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 229,500 tons. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1, and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day, at a historical high. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.628 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 278,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 515,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points. As of January 27, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 96,982 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 18,190 contracts, and a significant increase of 38,211 contracts or 65.02% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. As of January 27, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 217,962 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,191 contracts, and a significant increase of 112,503 contracts or 106.68% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,900 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 16,180 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | - 280 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,247 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | 2,247 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 433.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.6 yuan/barrel | 449.4 yuan/barrel | +0.4 yuan/barrel | - 16.4 yuan/barrel | - 1.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month spreads, inventory, capacity utilization rate, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][28][40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 22, 2026, due to the strengthening of butadiene, the cost support for BR was strong, driving a strong rebound of BR. As of the time of publication, the main contract of synthetic rubber futures, BR2603, rose by more than 4% [1] - In the short - term, BR cost is strongly supported, but the operating rate and inventory of BR are both high, and butadiene is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation in February. Therefore, in the short - term, BR2603 may test the previous resistance level of 12,500 again. It is not recommended to short BR, and those who previously held long positions in BR2603 can choose to reduce positions and take profits around 12,500 [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Cost - side Driving Factors - **Short - term**: The current supply - demand situation of butadiene is good. Affected by the previous maintenance of devices, the domestic butadiene operating rate declined in January until late January when domestic devices gradually restarted. The downstream operating rate is relatively high. The latest inventory at the East China port of butadiene this week is about 34,500 tons, a significant decrease of 10,100 tons from last week. Due to tight domestic supply - demand and the expected decline in net imports, the price of butadiene is likely to rise and difficult to fall. The production profit of BR has changed from profit to loss, indicating strong cost support for BR [3] - **Medium - term**: There will be no new butadiene devices put into production in the first half of the year, but there is an expectation of new devices being put into production in the downstream industry in the second quarter. There will be a mismatch between production and supply - demand in the butadiene industry chain, and the second quarter is the traditional maintenance season for Northeast Asian ethylene, so the supply - demand of butadiene will be tight in the second quarter [3] Demand - side Driving Factors - The EU will not implement temporary anti - dumping measures, reducing the export pressure on Chinese tires. The overall orders of tire enterprises in January improved compared with last month. The cancellation of the planned anti - dumping tax on Chinese - made PCR by the EU on January 21, 2026 is beneficial to the export of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises. The orders for semi - steel tire exports to the EU improved significantly compared with last month. Coupled with the pre - "Spring Festival" stocking period at home and abroad, the overall orders are relatively sufficient, which supports the production scheduling of tire enterprises in January [8] Market Outlook - **Cost side**: The high inventory of butadiene at ports in the short - term has been alleviated, with weak import and strong export expectations. The price of butadiene is likely to rise and difficult to fall. In February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream operating rate will decline, and many domestic butadiene devices restarted in late January. It is expected that butadiene will enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period, suppressing the upward space of butadiene prices [10] - **Supply side**: As butadiene strengthens, the production of BR has changed from profit to loss. However, since the futures market is stronger than the spot market, the supply is expected to decline slowly, and the inventory of BR will remain at a high level in the short term [10] - **Demand side**: The orders of tire enterprises were sufficient in January, and it is expected that Chinese tires will still rush to export to the EU from January to March. BR is still much cheaper than natural rubber, maintaining high cost - effectiveness. Therefore, the demand for BR is expected to improve in the first quarter [10]

Core Viewpoint - Linglong Tire is set to achieve significant production capacity in Serbia by Q4 2025, with a focus on both semi-steel and full-steel tire production [1] Production Capacity - The average daily production of semi-steel tires is projected to exceed 25,000 units, with a quarterly planned capacity of 300,000 units (1.2 million units annually), resulting in a capacity utilization rate of over 70% [1] - The average daily production of full-steel tires is expected to exceed 3,600 units, with a quarterly planned capacity of 60,000 units (240,000 units annually), leading to a capacity utilization rate of over 50% [1] Monthly and Annual Performance - The capacity utilization rate for December is reported to be consistent with the average level of Q4 [1] - The average production and sales rate for the year 2025 is anticipated to be close to 92% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,650 - 12,430 in the short - term. The supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber remains high, with an increase in both producer and trader inventories. Although short - term production profit has been significantly compressed, there are no signs of supply reduction. The downstream demand is weak as terminal users lack the willingness to stock up at high prices. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly, with some semi - steel tire enterprises maintaining a high operating rate supported by foreign trade orders, while all - steel tire enterprises still control production to manage inventory [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,915 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 330 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 93,726, with a week - on - week increase of 2,724 [2]. - The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, with no change. The total number of butadiene rubber warehouse receipts is 8,130 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different producers in various regions has decreased. For example, the price in Shandong from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical is 11,550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 150 and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Guangdong from Maoming Petrochemical is 11,650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 315 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 330 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 64.92 dollars/barrel, with an increase of 0.98 dollars/barrel. The price of WTI crude oil is 60.36 dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.1 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 710 dollars/ton, with no change. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 549 dollars/ton, with an increase of 0.5 dollars/ton. The price of butadiene CFR China is 1,180 dollars/ton, with no change. The market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change. The capacity utilization rate is 69.42%, with a decrease of 1.89 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 44,600 tons, with an increase of 3,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.91%, with a decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a decrease of 0.75 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 79.68%, with an increase of 0.53 percentage points. The weekly production profit is - 386 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 721 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.49 million tons, with an increase of 0.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. The producer inventory is 26,900 tons, and the trader inventory is 8,040 tons, with an increase of 1,270 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.39%, with an increase of 8.5 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.52%, with an increase of 7.5 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,301 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,831 million pieces, with an increase of 663 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 46.1 days, with an increase of 1.48 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.92 days, with an increase of 0.56 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. With the stable production of overhauled enterprises, the output increased significantly compared with last week, and the foreign trade orders of some semi - steel tire enterprises increased, boosting the capacity utilization rate [2]. - In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points compared with the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]. - As of January 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.49 million tons, an increase of 0.18 million tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 5.50% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Linglong Tire (601966) is making steady progress in ramping up production capacity at its Serbia facility, with utilization rates expected to exceed 70% for semi-steel and 50% for all-steel tires by the end of 2025 [1] - As of January to December 2025, the comprehensive sales rate for both semi-steel and all-steel tires at the Serbia base is projected to approach 92% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Linglong Tire, as one of the earliest Chinese tire companies to export products to Europe, has maintained stable growth in sales and market share in the region in recent years [2] Group 1: Sales Performance - By the third quarter of 2025, the company exported 8 million tires (including semi-steel and full-steel) to Europe, accounting for 12.14% of the company's overall revenue [2] - The company has been shipping products from both domestic and overseas factories, with a primary focus on direct exports from domestic facilities [2] Group 2: Strategic Developments - The Serbian base is expected to become the main supplier to the EU region due to its local manufacturing advantages, following the completion of the domestic production shift for European export products and the implementation of the EU's anti-dumping policies on Chinese semi-steel tires [2] - Currently, the company's sales in the EU market are conducted through a combination of direct sales by overseas subsidiaries and distribution via agents [2]