成文日期：20251009 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:天 研究员：何宁 （从业资格号:F0238922: 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 然橡胶期货日报 1 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日（20251009）天然橡胶期货市场整体呈现上涨态势。天然 橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格收于 15415 元/吨,相比前一交易日,价 格上涨 385 元/吨（1.55%），同时伴随 16.98 万手的交易量，持仓 量则为 14.07 万手,较前一交易日减少 378 手。20 号胶主力合约 NR2511 价格收于 12465 元/吨，相比前一交易日，价格上涨 365 元 /吨(1.84%),同时伴随 6.96 万手的交易量,持仓维持在 3.41 万 手，较前一交易日减少 52手。 丶■7 图片来源:文华财经行情软件 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图 1: 天然橡胶 2601 (ru2601) 分时图 1.3 现货市场数据 截止 10 月 9 日国内橡胶现货价格,泰混 ...

Core Viewpoint - General Shares has experienced a decline in stock price and significant changes in shareholder structure, with a notable increase in revenue but a sharp decrease in net profit [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 22, General Shares' stock price fell by 2.14%, trading at 4.58 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 7.279 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has decreased by 14.07%, with a slight decline of 0.22% over the last five trading days and 3.38% over the last 20 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, General Shares reported a revenue of 4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.39% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 64.2889 million yuan, which reflects a significant year-on-year decrease of 77.56% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 5.31% to 65,400, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 5.61% to 24,121 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Southern CSI 1000 ETF, which increased its holdings by 1.8274 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which reduced its holdings by 258,350 shares [3].

Tire Industry Research Summary Industry Overview - The tire industry is expected to see improvements in fundamentals in the second half of 2025, with confidence in orders and profitability. Leading companies show stronger performance resilience, particularly those with a higher proportion of all-steel tires, while semi-steel tires are more affected by tax increases [1][3]. - The U.S. market's trade risks have largely passed, while the EU market is expected to be favorable for the industry in the medium term, aiding in the optimization of industry structure. Attention is recommended for leading companies that have successfully expanded overseas [1][5]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Overall tire demand is projected to grow in the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in the semi-steel replacement market and strong support from the all-steel replacement market, although the original equipment market is expected to slow down [1][2][6]. - The export of passenger car tires is expected to remain flat, while truck and bus tire exports are projected to increase by 2%. Despite trade policy restrictions, truck and bus tire exports have reached record highs, primarily to Asia, Africa, and South America [1][8][9]. Import and Export Trends - The U.S. market shows a strong dependency on imported tires, with a slight increase in passenger car tire imports and a more than 10% increase in truck and bus tire imports in the first half of 2025. Major import sources include Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia [11][12][13]. - The EU's anti-dumping policies are anticipated to impact passenger car tire exports to Europe, with a projected decline following the May 2025 anti-dumping application [10]. Financial Performance and Profitability - Raw material prices are expected to rebound in the third quarter of 2025, with companies having low-cost inventory from the second quarter, which may lead to profit recovery. However, the first half of 2025 saw a decline in profitability due to high raw material prices and tariffs [4][14]. - The tire sector's revenue grew by 10% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 30% due to high raw material costs and unexpected tariff events [15][21]. Company Performance Insights - Leading companies like Sailun, Zhongce, and Linglong have shown strong sales performance, with Sailun achieving a record high in quarterly sales, growing by 10% year-on-year [17][21]. - Despite the overall industry pressure on profit margins, some companies like Guirun have demonstrated better-than-expected operational management [19][20]. Globalization and Market Positioning - Leading tire companies have significant advantages in global layout, with established operations in Southeast Asia and plans for expansion into regions like Mexico, Morocco, and Brazil [22][25]. - The importance of overseas business is highlighted by Sailun's overseas revenue growth of 19% in the first half of 2025, indicating a robust international presence [23]. Future Outlook - The tire industry, while facing challenges, is expected to continue growing due to its large market size and strong demand support. Leading companies are likely to enhance their market share through globalization and operational efficiency improvements [27][28]. - The third quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a peak season for the replacement market, with demand support expected to strengthen [28]. Recommendations - Focus on leading companies such as Sailun and Zhongce, as well as others like Senking, Linglong, and General, for potential performance recovery opportunities in the face of international trade policy changes [31][32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. With the reduction of precipitation in domestic production areas, the supply increased significantly. Overseas production areas were affected by rain, leading to high raw material prices. The production scheduling of downstream enterprises was better than expected, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. The inventory in the middle - stream continued to decline. However, the overall sentiment in the commodity market weakened, causing rubber prices to fall from high levels. In the short term, due to factors such as the weakening of precipitation in production areas, strong cost support, a slight decline in middle - stream inventory, an increase in downstream operating rates, and weakening commodity market sentiment, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating performance [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, the weather in Yunnan improved, and the supply - side pressure eased, but the strong demand for raw materials from processing plants supported a slight increase in raw material prices. In Hainan, the weather was good, and raw material output increased seasonally. In Thailand, continuous rain affected rubber tapping, leading to a shortage of raw material supply and rising prices. In Vietnam, the weather improvement was limited, and the shortage of raw materials continued [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules in the next period, with only small fluctuations in overall capacity utilization [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The warehouse receipt inventories of RU and 20 - numbered rubber on the futures exchanges also decreased [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread narrowed slightly, and the spread between the RU and NR main contracts widened [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, the theoretical production loss of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan narrowed, and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole milk was still in a loss range [3] - **Valuation**: It is bearish. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is still moderately high [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, the yield of US Treasury bonds decreased, and the risk appetite in the financial market increased. However, the domestic commodity market temporarily lacked driving forces, and the market sentiment was weak [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. Considering various factors, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR and short on NR [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Sentiment and Price Trend**: The market sentiment cooled down, and rubber returned to a weak state. This week, natural rubber rose first and then fell. As of September 12, the RU main contract closed at 15,820 yuan/ton, down 3.09% week - on - week, and the 20 - numbered rubber main contract closed at 12,555 yuan/ton, down 4.09% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices fell slightly [9] - **Position on the Futures Board**: The position of the RU2601 contract decreased significantly, and the total position of NR decreased slightly [16][23] - **Spread on the Futures Board**: The RU - NR spread widened slightly [30] 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: The rainfall in production areas decreased [37] - **Production and Export of Main Producing Countries**: In July, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 5.443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.54%. From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year increase of 21.82%. In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. From January to August, the total import volume was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19% [72][85][92] - **Middle - Stream Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly. As of September 7, 2025, the social inventory was 1.258 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 million tons, or 0.57% [100][107] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tires increased. This week, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased. It is expected that the overall capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly in the next period [108][117] - **Automobile and Heavy - Truck Market**: In July, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded. In August, the sales volume of heavy - trucks increased significantly year - on - year [123] - **Tire Export**: From January to July, the export volume of tires was 5.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [132] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, and the profit of Thai latex decreased [141]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually reflected. After the supply prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene are lowered, the spot offers gradually decline, which may drive some downstream enterprises to gradually stock up. The inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises may decrease slightly [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly. Most enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have returned to normal levels, driving up the capacity utilization rate. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and make up for previous order gaps. The overall capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly [2]. - The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,705 yuan/ton, and the position volume of the main contract is 18,785, a decrease of 2,274 [2]. - The spread between synthetic rubber contracts 10 - 11 is - 5 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,970 tons [2]. - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies show different changes, with some remaining unchanged and some decreasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. b. Spot Market - The prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions have changes, with some unchanged and some decreasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Northeast Asian ethylene, naphtha, and butadiene show different changes, with some prices decreasing [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.12 million tons/week, and the capacity utilization rate is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 5,350 tons, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units increased by 0.54 percentage points to 50.64% [2]. d. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points [2]. - The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 47 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is 3.45 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - The operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires also increased [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong show different changes, with the inventory days of semi - steel tires increasing slightly [2]. e. Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 0.26 million tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 5.69 percentage points month - on - month and decreased by 7.31 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 5.57 percentage points month - on - month and increased by 4.23 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber output increased by 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some devices had short - term maintenance, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises increased [2].

Group 1 - The company is currently progressing with the capacity construction of its Serbia factory as planned [2] - All equipment for both semi-steel and full-steel production lines has been largely delivered, and installation and debugging are underway [2] - The production capacity is steadily increasing, and profitability is expected to enhance as the production lines are fully operational and capacity utilization improves [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the synthetic rubber industry is "Weak and Fluctuating" [1] Core View of the Report - Due to the expected cooling of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium of crude oil has shrunk, weakening the cost support for synthetic rubber. Meanwhile, the resumption of domestic cis-polybutadiene rubber production after maintenance has led to a slight increase in output. Considering the increasing production and sales pressure of semi-steel tires and the obvious slowdown in external demand growth, the synthetic rubber futures are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the future [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Geopolitical Premium Reversal and Cost Factor Weakening - Synthetic rubber is mainly made from butadiene and styrene, which are products of the petroleum refining process. The price of crude oil directly affects the production cost of synthetic rubber. With the increasing willingness to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiation, the international crude oil futures premium is expected to shrink, and the focus of the oil market will shift to the expectation of supply-demand surplus, dragging down the short-term oil price and weakening the cost support for synthetic rubber futures [3] Slight Increase in Domestic Cis-Polybutadiene Rubber Production - In July 2025, China's cis-polybutadiene rubber production reached 129,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,700 tons or 5.47%, and a year-on-year increase of 27.04%. Although there are maintenance expectations for some plants, the production of cis-polybutadiene rubber in August is expected to continue to grow [4] More Maintenance in the Tire Industry and Weakening Rigid Demand for Cis-Polybutadiene Rubber - Since August, the finished product inventory of domestic semi-steel tire enterprises has remained high. As of August 14, 2025, the average inventory turnover days of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 46.73 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.28 days and a year-on-year increase of 9.73 days. In June 2025, China's small passenger car tire exports decreased by 3.47% month-on-month and 11.76% year-on-year. The exports to the EU also faced certain pressure. In the context of weakening external demand for tires, the rigid demand for cis-polybutadiene rubber may weaken in the future [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate due to the typhoon affecting the rubber tapping process in some producing areas, while synthetic rubber prices may also fluctuate as the upstream raw material price support is insufficient but the automobile production and sales data is stronger than expected. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene rubber [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On August 15, 2025, the closing price was 15,905, the trading volume was 404,764 lots, the open interest was 186,459 lots, and the registered warrant volume was 179,930. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 270, the trading volume increased by 22,582 lots, the open interest increased by 4,607 lots, and the registered warrant volume increased by 860 [2]. - The natural rubber basis was -1,180, a decrease of 395 compared with the previous day. The Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -175, a decrease of 25 compared with the previous day; the Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -175, unchanged from the previous day; the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was 75, an increase of 50 compared with the previous day [2]. - The natural rubber near - month to continuous - first spread was -145, a decrease of 360 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was -15, an increase of 15 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was -40, a decrease of 35 compared with the previous day [2]. Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On August 15, 2025, the closing price was 11,815, the trading volume was 63,265 lots, the open interest was 20,356 lots, and the registered warrant volume was 10,470. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 170, the trading volume decreased by 4,888 lots, the open interest decreased by 3,317 lots, and the registered warrant volume remained unchanged [2]. - The synthetic rubber basis was -248.33, a decrease of 170 compared with the previous day. The North China - East China butadiene rubber spread was 0, unchanged from the previous day; the South China - East China butadiene rubber spread was -50, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The synthetic rubber near - month to continuous - first spread was 65, a decrease of 190 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was -5, a decrease of 5 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was 5, an increase of 5 compared with the previous day [2]. Supply Side - In the coming days, there will be precipitation in major producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. In domestic producing areas, affected by the typhoon, there will be heavy precipitation in Hainan, Guangxi, and other places, and also precipitation in Yunnan and other places. As of August 14, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 62.91%, a decrease of 1.8% compared with the previous week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 80.71%, an increase of 1.39% compared with the previous week [2]. Inventory Side - As of August 15, 2025, the weekly warrant total inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 213,190 tons, an increase of 2,860 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 401,500 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons compared with the previous week; the bonded area inventory was 85,700 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with the previous week. As of August 14, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 11,531 tons, a decrease of 1,135 tons compared with the previous week [2]. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, and major producing areas at home and abroad have fully started tapping. As of August 15, 2025, the purchase price of rubber latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 61.2 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 1,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. As of August 15, 2025, the daily average price of butadiene (99.6%) in China was 9,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. As of August 13, 2025, the weekly import inventory of butadiene in China was 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with the previous week [2]. Demand Side - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.07%, an increase of 2.09% compared with the previous week, and the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 72.25%, a decrease of 2.28% compared with the previous week. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.593 million vehicles, a decrease of 311,500 vehicles compared with the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in July was 2.287 million vehicles, a decrease of 248,500 vehicles compared with the previous month; the sales volume of trucks in July was 264,000 vehicles, a decrease of 52,200 vehicles compared with the previous month. The automobile market has entered the traditional off - season. From January to July 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles in China were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12% respectively [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. - For methanol, the valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or short it within the sector when the price is high [5]. - For urea, although the current domestic demand is weak, the overall valuation is low, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to go long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [7]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is recommended for the short - term high - rising rubber price, with quick in - and - out operations. One can also consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. The fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. The price may decline significantly after the anti - involution sentiment fades [11]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the short term. After the high - level port inventory is reduced, the styrene price may oscillate upwards following the cost side [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the short - term price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. - For polypropylene, the cost side will likely dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow the oil price and oscillate upwards [17]. - For PX, the load remains high, and it is expected to continue de - stocking. The valuation has support at the bottom but limited upside in the short term. One can consider going long following the oil price when the peak season arrives [19][20]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue building up inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. One can consider going long following PX when the downstream performance improves in the peak season [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will turn from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation may decline [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI crude oil futures rose $0.65, or 1.03%, to $64; Brent crude oil futures rose $0.39, or 0.59%, to $66.71; INE crude oil futures fell 0.40 yuan, or 0.08%, to 489.4 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.67%; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.10 million barrels to 91.96 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.21%; diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.77 million barrels to 105.56 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.70%; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.87 million barrels to 197.51 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.00% [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the 09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 2389 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventory is building up faster, while inland corporate inventory is decreasing. The valuation is high, and downstream demand is weak [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the 09 contract fell 6 yuan/ton to 1722 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively abundant, and domestic agricultural demand is ending. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls expect price increases due to seasonal factors, demand expectations, and potential production cuts, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and less - than - expected production cuts [9]. - **Industry Conditions**: As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week but up 8.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous week and 4.21 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tire factories is under pressure [10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 17 yuan to 5010 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 yuan/ton, the basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate was 79.5%, up 2.6% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 42.9%, up 0.8% week - on - week. Factory inventory was 33.7 million tons (- 0.8), and social inventory was 77.7 million tons (+ 5.4). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - market sentiment is positive, and the cost side provides support. The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory is decreasing significantly, and the demand in the off - season is weak [13][14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The inventory of traders is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. There is a large capacity - release pressure in August [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is in the off - season, and there is limited capacity - release in August. The cost side is expected to dominate the market [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6778 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 4 dollars to 835 dollars [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The import volume from South Korea decreased. The inventory decreased in June, and the valuation cost decreased [19][20]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 22 yuan to 4706 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 30 yuan to 4700 yuan [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The load increased, and some plants had load adjustments. The downstream load increased slightly, and terminal load was stable or decreased. The inventory increased in early August, and the processing fee had different trends [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 30 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 19 yuan to 4484 yuan [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall load decreased slightly, with different trends in synthetic gas and ethylene - based production. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The downstream load increased slightly, and terminal load was stable or decreased. The port inventory increased, and the valuation and cost had different trends [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber sector continued to strengthen with the macro - environment this week, showing a pattern of widespread simultaneous rises and falls among commodities. The volatility of the rubber sector reached a 5 - year high under the dual drive of the macro - environment and events. Attention can be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility. The market may return to the fundamentals of limited improvement after the macro - sentiment fades [3][5]. - The supply of synthetic rubber has become slightly looser, with a slight increase in the production of butadiene rubber and a slight decrease in the production of semi - steel tires [4]. - Some macro data, such as the CSI 1000 Index and the Citi G10 Economic Surprise Index, are favorable for the unilateral trend of RU, while the supply data of natural rubber shows that only the price of smoked sheet rubber has slightly stabilized and rebounded, and the fundamentals for a recovery are not solid [5]. - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has affected the market, but the market mainly followed the macro - strengthening logic after a short - term reaction to the potential supply tightening. If the domestic macro - drive weakens next week and the conflict escalates, it may become the main contradiction again [5]. - The mixed basis is bearish and has not been affected by the macro - warming. The supply of natural and synthetic rubber has certain changes, which has an impact on the trend of RU [27][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - related Data - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6476 points, reaching a new high since January 2016. The average value in the past 6 months increased by +19.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for 12 consecutive months, which is favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [5][18]. - The Citi G10 Economic Surprise Index reported +12.4 points, with the average value in the past 6 months increasing by +6.6 points year - on - year, and the increase expanding for 2 consecutive months, which is also favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [5][18]. 3.2 Impact of the Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict - Four Thai provinces affected by the conflict account for about 7% of Thailand's total rubber production. In 2024, the total rubber production of these four provinces was 34.1 tons, accounting for 7.1% of Thailand's total production of 478.9 tons. Cambodia's total production in 2024 was 40.7 tons [20][22]. - The RU - NR spread is a good indicator to reflect the impact of the Thailand - Cambodia border conflict. Currently, NR is relatively weak compared to RU, but the conflict is expected to suppress the supply of 20 - grade rubber and make NR relatively stronger. The spread started to move before the unilateral increase on July 24, confirming the supply logic in advance [25][26]. 3.3 Mixed Basis and Supply - demand Factors - In May, the total import volume of standard and mixed rubber from Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia decreased for 2 consecutive months, but the average import volume in the past 6 months increased by +10.1% year - on - year, with the marginal increase for 10 consecutive months, which is bearish for the mixed rubber [28]. - In June, the total import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China decreased for 3 consecutive months, reaching 60.0 tons. The production of synthetic rubber increased month - on - month, reaching 70.3 tons, and the production of natural rubber increased for 3 consecutive months in May, reaching 9.7 tons. The total of these is 140.0 tons, with the cumulative volume in the past 3 months increasing by +9.3% year - on - year, and the increase narrowing for 2 consecutive months, which is favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [37]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Supply - The capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene increased to 70.0%, with the average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increasing by +2.3% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber increased to 67.6%, with the average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increasing by +9.4% year - on - year, showing a marginal increase [49]. - The port inventory of domestic butadiene decreased for 2 consecutive weeks, reaching 1.57 tons, with the average inventory in the past 5 weeks increasing by +0.21 tons year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks. The total inventory of domestic butadiene rubber in traders and factories is 3.23 tons, with the average inventory in 5 weeks increasing by +0.90 tons year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks [49]. 3.5 Tire Consumption - The production line operating rate of domestic all - steel tires decreased to 65.0%, with the average operating rate in the past 12 weeks increasing by +3.9% year - on - year, and the marginal increase for 9 consecutive weeks. The finished product inventory of all - steel tires remained unchanged at 41 days, with the average inventory in 24 weeks decreasing by - 2.7% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 53 consecutive weeks [60]. - The production line operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires decreased to 75.9%, with the average operating rate in the past 24 weeks increasing by +3.4% year - on - year, showing a marginal decrease. The product inventory of semi - steel tires increased by 1 day to 47 days, with the average inventory in the past 24 weeks increasing by +36.5% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 9 consecutive weeks [60]. 3.6 NR Month - spread - The daily average open interest of the NR contract is equivalent to 115.90 tons, the warehouse receipt volume is 3.48 tons, and the virtual - to - real ratio is 32.30 times. Since the virtual - to - real ratio lags behind the month - spread, it is expected that the decline in the open interest of the NR contract will be greater than the reduction in warehouse receipts in the later period [65]. - From a long - term perspective, the NR month - spread may strengthen until September, and there is a large expectation of weakening after that (the near - month contract weakens). Attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage when the month - spread weakens [65].