成文日期：20251009 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:天 研究员：何宁 （从业资格号:F0238922: 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 然橡胶期货日报 1 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日（20251009）天然橡胶期货市场整体呈现上涨态势。天然 橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格收于 15415 元/吨,相比前一交易日,价 格上涨 385 元/吨（1.55%），同时伴随 16.98 万手的交易量，持仓 量则为 14.07 万手,较前一交易日减少 378 手。20 号胶主力合约 NR2511 价格收于 12465 元/吨，相比前一交易日，价格上涨 365 元 /吨(1.84%),同时伴随 6.96 万手的交易量,持仓维持在 3.41 万 手，较前一交易日减少 52手。 丶■7 图片来源:文华财经行情软件 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图 1: 天然橡胶 2601 (ru2601) 分时图 1.3 现货市场数据 截止 10 月 9 日国内橡胶现货价格,泰混 ...

Core Viewpoint - General Shares has experienced a decline in stock price and significant changes in shareholder structure, with a notable increase in revenue but a sharp decrease in net profit [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 22, General Shares' stock price fell by 2.14%, trading at 4.58 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 7.279 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has decreased by 14.07%, with a slight decline of 0.22% over the last five trading days and 3.38% over the last 20 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, General Shares reported a revenue of 4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.39% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 64.2889 million yuan, which reflects a significant year-on-year decrease of 77.56% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 5.31% to 65,400, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 5.61% to 24,121 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Southern CSI 1000 ETF, which increased its holdings by 1.8274 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which reduced its holdings by 258,350 shares [3].

Tire Industry Research Summary Industry Overview - The tire industry is expected to see improvements in fundamentals in the second half of 2025, with confidence in orders and profitability. Leading companies show stronger performance resilience, particularly those with a higher proportion of all-steel tires, while semi-steel tires are more affected by tax increases [1][3]. - The U.S. market's trade risks have largely passed, while the EU market is expected to be favorable for the industry in the medium term, aiding in the optimization of industry structure. Attention is recommended for leading companies that have successfully expanded overseas [1][5]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Overall tire demand is projected to grow in the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in the semi-steel replacement market and strong support from the all-steel replacement market, although the original equipment market is expected to slow down [1][2][6]. - The export of passenger car tires is expected to remain flat, while truck and bus tire exports are projected to increase by 2%. Despite trade policy restrictions, truck and bus tire exports have reached record highs, primarily to Asia, Africa, and South America [1][8][9]. Import and Export Trends - The U.S. market shows a strong dependency on imported tires, with a slight increase in passenger car tire imports and a more than 10% increase in truck and bus tire imports in the first half of 2025. Major import sources include Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia [11][12][13]. - The EU's anti-dumping policies are anticipated to impact passenger car tire exports to Europe, with a projected decline following the May 2025 anti-dumping application [10]. Financial Performance and Profitability - Raw material prices are expected to rebound in the third quarter of 2025, with companies having low-cost inventory from the second quarter, which may lead to profit recovery. However, the first half of 2025 saw a decline in profitability due to high raw material prices and tariffs [4][14]. - The tire sector's revenue grew by 10% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 30% due to high raw material costs and unexpected tariff events [15][21]. Company Performance Insights - Leading companies like Sailun, Zhongce, and Linglong have shown strong sales performance, with Sailun achieving a record high in quarterly sales, growing by 10% year-on-year [17][21]. - Despite the overall industry pressure on profit margins, some companies like Guirun have demonstrated better-than-expected operational management [19][20]. Globalization and Market Positioning - Leading tire companies have significant advantages in global layout, with established operations in Southeast Asia and plans for expansion into regions like Mexico, Morocco, and Brazil [22][25]. - The importance of overseas business is highlighted by Sailun's overseas revenue growth of 19% in the first half of 2025, indicating a robust international presence [23]. Future Outlook - The tire industry, while facing challenges, is expected to continue growing due to its large market size and strong demand support. Leading companies are likely to enhance their market share through globalization and operational efficiency improvements [27][28]. - The third quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a peak season for the replacement market, with demand support expected to strengthen [28]. Recommendations - Focus on leading companies such as Sailun and Zhongce, as well as others like Senking, Linglong, and General, for potential performance recovery opportunities in the face of international trade policy changes [31][32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. With the reduction of precipitation in domestic production areas, the supply increased significantly. Overseas production areas were affected by rain, leading to high raw material prices. The production scheduling of downstream enterprises was better than expected, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. The inventory in the middle - stream continued to decline. However, the overall sentiment in the commodity market weakened, causing rubber prices to fall from high levels. In the short term, due to factors such as the weakening of precipitation in production areas, strong cost support, a slight decline in middle - stream inventory, an increase in downstream operating rates, and weakening commodity market sentiment, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating performance [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, the weather in Yunnan improved, and the supply - side pressure eased, but the strong demand for raw materials from processing plants supported a slight increase in raw material prices. In Hainan, the weather was good, and raw material output increased seasonally. In Thailand, continuous rain affected rubber tapping, leading to a shortage of raw material supply and rising prices. In Vietnam, the weather improvement was limited, and the shortage of raw materials continued [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules in the next period, with only small fluctuations in overall capacity utilization [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The warehouse receipt inventories of RU and 20 - numbered rubber on the futures exchanges also decreased [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread narrowed slightly, and the spread between the RU and NR main contracts widened [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, the theoretical production loss of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan narrowed, and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole milk was still in a loss range [3] - **Valuation**: It is bearish. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is still moderately high [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, the yield of US Treasury bonds decreased, and the risk appetite in the financial market increased. However, the domestic commodity market temporarily lacked driving forces, and the market sentiment was weak [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. Considering various factors, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR and short on NR [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Sentiment and Price Trend**: The market sentiment cooled down, and rubber returned to a weak state. This week, natural rubber rose first and then fell. As of September 12, the RU main contract closed at 15,820 yuan/ton, down 3.09% week - on - week, and the 20 - numbered rubber main contract closed at 12,555 yuan/ton, down 4.09% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices fell slightly [9] - **Position on the Futures Board**: The position of the RU2601 contract decreased significantly, and the total position of NR decreased slightly [16][23] - **Spread on the Futures Board**: The RU - NR spread widened slightly [30] 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: The rainfall in production areas decreased [37] - **Production and Export of Main Producing Countries**: In July, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 5.443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.54%. From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year increase of 21.82%. In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. From January to August, the total import volume was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19% [72][85][92] - **Middle - Stream Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly. As of September 7, 2025, the social inventory was 1.258 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 million tons, or 0.57% [100][107] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tires increased. This week, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased. It is expected that the overall capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly in the next period [108][117] - **Automobile and Heavy - Truck Market**: In July, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded. In August, the sales volume of heavy - trucks increased significantly year - on - year [123] - **Tire Export**: From January to July, the export volume of tires was 5.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [132] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, and the profit of Thai latex decreased [141]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually reflected. After the supply prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene are lowered, the spot offers gradually decline, which may drive some downstream enterprises to gradually stock up. The inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises may decrease slightly [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly. Most enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have returned to normal levels, driving up the capacity utilization rate. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and make up for previous order gaps. The overall capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly [2]. - The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,705 yuan/ton, and the position volume of the main contract is 18,785, a decrease of 2,274 [2]. - The spread between synthetic rubber contracts 10 - 11 is - 5 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,970 tons [2]. - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies show different changes, with some remaining unchanged and some decreasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. b. Spot Market - The prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions have changes, with some unchanged and some decreasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Northeast Asian ethylene, naphtha, and butadiene show different changes, with some prices decreasing [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.12 million tons/week, and the capacity utilization rate is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 5,350 tons, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units increased by 0.54 percentage points to 50.64% [2]. d. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points [2]. - The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 47 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is 3.45 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - The operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires also increased [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong show different changes, with the inventory days of semi - steel tires increasing slightly [2]. e. Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 0.26 million tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 5.69 percentage points month - on - month and decreased by 7.31 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 5.57 percentage points month - on - month and increased by 4.23 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber output increased by 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some devices had short - term maintenance, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises increased [2].

Group 1 - The company is currently progressing with the capacity construction of its Serbia factory as planned [2] - All equipment for both semi-steel and full-steel production lines has been largely delivered, and installation and debugging are underway [2] - The production capacity is steadily increasing, and profitability is expected to enhance as the production lines are fully operational and capacity utilization improves [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate due to the typhoon affecting the rubber tapping process in some producing areas, while synthetic rubber prices may also fluctuate as the upstream raw material price support is insufficient but the automobile production and sales data is stronger than expected. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene rubber [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On August 15, 2025, the closing price was 15,905, the trading volume was 404,764 lots, the open interest was 186,459 lots, and the registered warrant volume was 179,930. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 270, the trading volume increased by 22,582 lots, the open interest increased by 4,607 lots, and the registered warrant volume increased by 860 [2]. - The natural rubber basis was -1,180, a decrease of 395 compared with the previous day. The Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -175, a decrease of 25 compared with the previous day; the Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -175, unchanged from the previous day; the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was 75, an increase of 50 compared with the previous day [2]. - The natural rubber near - month to continuous - first spread was -145, a decrease of 360 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was -15, an increase of 15 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was -40, a decrease of 35 compared with the previous day [2]. Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On August 15, 2025, the closing price was 11,815, the trading volume was 63,265 lots, the open interest was 20,356 lots, and the registered warrant volume was 10,470. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 170, the trading volume decreased by 4,888 lots, the open interest decreased by 3,317 lots, and the registered warrant volume remained unchanged [2]. - The synthetic rubber basis was -248.33, a decrease of 170 compared with the previous day. The North China - East China butadiene rubber spread was 0, unchanged from the previous day; the South China - East China butadiene rubber spread was -50, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The synthetic rubber near - month to continuous - first spread was 65, a decrease of 190 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was -5, a decrease of 5 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was 5, an increase of 5 compared with the previous day [2]. Supply Side - In the coming days, there will be precipitation in major producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. In domestic producing areas, affected by the typhoon, there will be heavy precipitation in Hainan, Guangxi, and other places, and also precipitation in Yunnan and other places. As of August 14, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 62.91%, a decrease of 1.8% compared with the previous week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 80.71%, an increase of 1.39% compared with the previous week [2]. Inventory Side - As of August 15, 2025, the weekly warrant total inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 213,190 tons, an increase of 2,860 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 401,500 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons compared with the previous week; the bonded area inventory was 85,700 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with the previous week. As of August 14, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 11,531 tons, a decrease of 1,135 tons compared with the previous week [2]. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, and major producing areas at home and abroad have fully started tapping. As of August 15, 2025, the purchase price of rubber latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 61.2 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 1,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. As of August 15, 2025, the daily average price of butadiene (99.6%) in China was 9,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. As of August 13, 2025, the weekly import inventory of butadiene in China was 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with the previous week [2]. Demand Side - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.07%, an increase of 2.09% compared with the previous week, and the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 72.25%, a decrease of 2.28% compared with the previous week. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.593 million vehicles, a decrease of 311,500 vehicles compared with the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in July was 2.287 million vehicles, a decrease of 248,500 vehicles compared with the previous month; the sales volume of trucks in July was 264,000 vehicles, a decrease of 52,200 vehicles compared with the previous month. The automobile market has entered the traditional off - season. From January to July 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles in China were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12% respectively [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. - For methanol, the valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or short it within the sector when the price is high [5]. - For urea, although the current domestic demand is weak, the overall valuation is low, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to go long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [7]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is recommended for the short - term high - rising rubber price, with quick in - and - out operations. One can also consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. The fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. The price may decline significantly after the anti - involution sentiment fades [11]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the short term. After the high - level port inventory is reduced, the styrene price may oscillate upwards following the cost side [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the short - term price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. - For polypropylene, the cost side will likely dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow the oil price and oscillate upwards [17]. - For PX, the load remains high, and it is expected to continue de - stocking. The valuation has support at the bottom but limited upside in the short term. One can consider going long following the oil price when the peak season arrives [19][20]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue building up inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. One can consider going long following PX when the downstream performance improves in the peak season [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will turn from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation may decline [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI crude oil futures rose $0.65, or 1.03%, to $64; Brent crude oil futures rose $0.39, or 0.59%, to $66.71; INE crude oil futures fell 0.40 yuan, or 0.08%, to 489.4 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.67%; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.10 million barrels to 91.96 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.21%; diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.77 million barrels to 105.56 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.70%; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.87 million barrels to 197.51 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.00% [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the 09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 2389 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventory is building up faster, while inland corporate inventory is decreasing. The valuation is high, and downstream demand is weak [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the 09 contract fell 6 yuan/ton to 1722 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively abundant, and domestic agricultural demand is ending. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls expect price increases due to seasonal factors, demand expectations, and potential production cuts, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and less - than - expected production cuts [9]. - **Industry Conditions**: As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week but up 8.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous week and 4.21 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tire factories is under pressure [10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 17 yuan to 5010 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 yuan/ton, the basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate was 79.5%, up 2.6% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 42.9%, up 0.8% week - on - week. Factory inventory was 33.7 million tons (- 0.8), and social inventory was 77.7 million tons (+ 5.4). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - market sentiment is positive, and the cost side provides support. The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory is decreasing significantly, and the demand in the off - season is weak [13][14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The inventory of traders is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. There is a large capacity - release pressure in August [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is in the off - season, and there is limited capacity - release in August. The cost side is expected to dominate the market [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6778 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 4 dollars to 835 dollars [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The import volume from South Korea decreased. The inventory decreased in June, and the valuation cost decreased [19][20]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 22 yuan to 4706 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 30 yuan to 4700 yuan [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The load increased, and some plants had load adjustments. The downstream load increased slightly, and terminal load was stable or decreased. The inventory increased in early August, and the processing fee had different trends [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 30 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 19 yuan to 4484 yuan [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall load decreased slightly, with different trends in synthetic gas and ethylene - based production. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The downstream load increased slightly, and terminal load was stable or decreased. The port inventory increased, and the valuation and cost had different trends [22].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core View - The natural rubber price may fluctuate strongly due to the armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The synthetic rubber price may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improved macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data Natural Rubber Futures - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 15245, up 240 from the previous day; the trading volume was 522391 lots; the open interest was 210844 lots; the registered warrant volume was 186680, down 20 from the previous day; the natural rubber basis was - 270, down 240 from the previous day [1]. - Regarding the daily price differences of standard rubber SCRWF in different regions compared to Shanghai, the Tianjin - Shanghai difference was - 125 (unchanged), the Shandong - Shanghai difference was - 200 (unchanged), and the Yunnan - Shanghai difference was - 325 (unchanged) [1]. - For the natural rubber monthly spread, the near - month minus the first - continuous contract was - 90, down 20 from the previous day; the first - continuous minus the second - continuous contract was 15, up 5 from the previous day; the first - continuous minus the third - continuous contract was - 10, down 35 from the previous day [1]. Synthetic Rubber Futures - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 12285, up 410 from the previous day; the trading volume was 148642 lots; the open interest was 48828 lots; the registered warrant volume was 9840 (unchanged); the synthetic rubber basis was - 535, down 343.33 from the previous day [1]. - The North - South difference of cis - butadiene rubber in the synthetic rubber basis: the South China - East China difference was - 75, up 25 from the previous day; another difference was - 25, down 60 from the previous day [1]. - For the synthetic rubber monthly spread, the first - continuous minus the second - continuous contract was 40, up 20 from the previous day; the first - continuous minus the third - continuous contract was 40, up 20 from the previous day [1]. 2. Supply Side - In the natural rubber main producing areas, Thailand and Vietnam will have stable weather and less precipitation in the next few days, while Indonesia will have more precipitation. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Yunnan and other places [1]. - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.43%, up 3.21% from last week; the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from last week [1]. - As of July 24, the daily after - tax profit of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion polymerization method was - 168.14 yuan/ton, up 110.62 yuan/ton from the previous day; the daily after - tax profit of China's SBS solution polymerization was 150.44 yuan/ton, down 53.1 yuan/ton from the previous day; the after - tax profit of cis - butadiene rubber solution polymerization process was - 787.61 yuan/ton, up 88.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3. Inventory Side - As of July 18, 2025, the weekly total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 212.92 thousand tons, down 0.67 thousand tons from last week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 1.37 million tons, down 0.12 million tons from last week; the bonded area inventory was 9.19 million tons, down 0.07 million tons from last week [1]. - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 12796 tons, up 150 tons from last week [1]. 4. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the increasing period, and the main producing areas at home and abroad have fully started tapping. As of July 24, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 55.3 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 15600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction of crude oil is not prominent, and the oil price volatility has returned to shock. The price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased. As of July 24, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 90887.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 23, the weekly port inventory of Chinese butadiene was 15.7 thousand tons, down 4.3 thousand tons from last week [1]. 5. Demand Side - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.00%, down 0.08% from last week; the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 76.58%, down 0.12% from last week [1]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the national automobile market retail sales were 2.804 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The passenger car sales in June were 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month. The truck sales in June were 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month, and the tire supporting demand has increased [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of natural rubber may fluctuate strongly due to slight inventory reduction and rising tire demand. The price of synthetic rubber may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improvement of the macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and synthetic rubber [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 15060, up 165 from the previous day; the trading volume was 567016 hands, an increase of 128226 hands; the open interest was 216311 hands, a decrease of 1817 hands; the registered warrant volume remained unchanged at 186620 [1]. Natural Rubber Basis - The natural rubber basis on July 22, 2025, was - 85, a decrease of 65 from the previous day. The daily price difference between Tianjin - Shanghai, Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF remained unchanged, while the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily price difference increased by 100 [1]. Natural Rubber Monthly Spread - On July 22, 2025, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of natural rubber was - 50, a decrease of 25; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 5, an increase of 5; the spread between the first - continuous and the third - continuous contract was - 15, a decrease of 15 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 12100, up 105 from the previous day; the trading volume was 121387 hands, an increase of 34371 hands; the open interest was 49351 hands, an increase of 34358 hands; the registered warrant volume was 9850, an increase of 150 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Basis - The synthetic rubber basis on July 22, 2025, was - 341.67, a decrease of 88.34 from the previous day. The price difference between North China - East China and South China - East China of butadiene rubber decreased by 25 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Monthly Spread - On July 22, 2025, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of synthetic rubber was 15, a decrease of 10; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract remained unchanged at 25; the spread between the first - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 40, an increase of 20 [1]. Supply Side - In the coming days, the weather in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia is stable with less precipitation, while there is precipitation in domestic producing areas. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber increased by 0.47% to 63.22%, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 1.6% to 78.79%. The daily after - tax gross profit of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion polymerization process increased by 4.25 yuan/ton, and that of SBS solution coagulation process increased by 70.8 yuan/ton. The after - tax gross profit of butadiene rubber solution polymerization process remained unchanged [1]. Inventory Side - As of July 18, 2025, the weekly warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.67 thousand tons to 212.92 thousand tons; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.12 million tons to 11.37 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased by 123 tons to 12640 tons [1]. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period. As of July 22, 2025, the glue purchase price in Thailand increased by 0.3 baht/kg, and that in Hainan increased by 100 yuan/ton. For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction of crude oil is not prominent, the oil price volatility returns to shock, the price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased, and the weekly inventory of butadiene ports decreased by 3.6 thousand tons to 20 thousand tons [1]. Demand Side - As of July 17, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 0.54% to 65.08%, and that of semi - steel tires in China increased by 3.07% to 75.62%. In June 2025, the retail volume of the national automobile market, passenger car sales, and truck sales all increased compared with the previous month, and the tire matching demand increased [1].