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FICC策略:关税恐慌退潮,美元美债何向?
Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant improvement in market sentiment, with a notable increase in risk appetite observed in the markets [6][7][9] - The US has temporarily suspended 91% of retaliatory tariffs, retaining only a 10% baseline tariff, which is expected to provide the US economy with a period of relief to implement tax cuts and fiscal stimulus [7][8] - The report anticipates that the US dollar assets may experience a sustained rebound due to the lack of significant economic downturn in the US and the Federal Reserve's stable stance [6][9] Group 2 - The report indicates that the recent trade agreement has resulted in a significant rise in both short-term and long-term US Treasury yields, reflecting a typical "risk-on" market response [6][13] - Short-term yields are expected to have limited downward movement due to the resilience of the US economy, while long-term yields are projected to fluctuate within the range of 4.2% to 4.5% [18][20] - The report suggests that the market's narrative remains focused on the recovery of risk appetite, indicating an optimistic outlook for future economic conditions [16]