专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月9日，今日21：30，美国劳工统计局将公布12月非农就业报告，这是美国白宫停摆后，首个不受影响 的完整月份非农报告，指导意义较强。 报告中最受关注的数据是美国12月非农就业人口变动，前值为6.4万人，预期值6万人，预期相对稳定。 美国12月失业率前值为4.6%，预期值4.5%，预期同样稳定。 市场机构之所以给出相对稳定的预期，是因为12月份美国并没有出现如10~11月份那般的政府停摆事 件。特朗普最常用的关税战，也未在12月份重提。所以，6万人左右的非农就业人口预期较为合理。 ▲ATFX图 历史数据看，美国新增非农就业人口数据，近期一直表现低迷。5月份是转折点，之前就业人口尚能突 破10万关口，之后变频频跌入负值。尤其是10月份，新增非农就业人口为-10.5万人，意味着政府停摆 严重冲击了美国的就业市场。 2025年5月份以来，美国的非农就业人口保持"一正一负"的节奏。11月份的就业人口为6.4万人，已经为 正值。市场预期12月份为6万人。如果预期落地，则美国实现了过去半年时间里，首个连续为正值的就 业数据。这可能意味着美国的劳动力市场有转好迹象，利多美元指数。 本周三，美国自 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 沪指录得 14 连阳，美国 ADP 就业温和增长 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-08 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） ADP 就业温和增长 最新的 ADP 就业温和增长，表明劳动力市场目前维持趋势降低 但是温和的状态，美元指数震荡。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国 12 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 为 54.4 综 金价震荡下跌，贵金属板块回调，资金在大宗商品板块间发生 切换，也在为 Bloomberg 商品指数 8-14 日的年度权重调整做准 备，25 年贵金属涨幅可观，影响不容忽视。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 沪指录得 14 连阳 报 A 股继续放量上涨，市场担忧快速拉升后，是否会迎来监管"降 温"。我们认为对此不必过于担忧，目前国内流动性充沛与多 头格局维持的情况下，市场仍有较强的动力。 黑色金属（动力煤） 1 月 7 日国际市场动力煤价格稳中偏强运行 榆林方面再度传出产能核减消息，预计煤矿部分产能加速淘汰。 但考虑 2026 年仍有新增煤矿投产，且需求端较为疲软，预计整 体供应端变化不大。煤价预计在 1 月份保持平稳。 有色金属（铜） BMI 预测：2026 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普和平计划遇阻，常州锂源磷酸铁锂部 分产线减产检修 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-30 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普的和平计划遭遇新阻碍 普京称将改变谈判立场 俄罗斯表示乌克兰袭击普京住所，导致停火计划遇阻。俄乌冲 突出现新变数，美元短期震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 沪指放量录得九连阳 综 A 股继续放量，但盘面涨跌分化较大，商业航天等概念涨幅较大， 而创业板则跌幅明显。我们认为流动性扩张过程是近期行情的 主要推动力，短期波动不影响躁动底色。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 CME 上调黄金白银保证金 报 黄金白银大跌，白银逼仓交易暂时告一段落，多头获利了结， 空头被迫平仓，叠加假期前后市场流动性不佳波动放大，交易 所上调保证金也加剧了抛压。国内元旦假期将至也要减仓。 农产品（豆粕） 油厂豆粕库存继续上升 市场继续关注我国采购美豆情况，目前南美产区天气良好、产 量前景乐观。上周油厂豆粕库存再度上升，长时间为历史同期 最高。 黑色金属（铁矿石） Champion Iron 拟收购 Rana Gruber 铁水基本逐步持平叠加钢厂原料库存不高，下游补库情绪或略 ...

贵金属期货 周报—2025-11-28 1、黄金AU 观点： 在贸易战重启背景下经济衰退问题制约金银饰品 消费需求；贵金属的需求在于去美元背景下的主权基金选择；在美国重启降息 之际，美元中期贬值因素和近端收益率曲线下沉对贵金属形成支撑；跟踪到国内黄金仓单有相对显著的上升，而美国黄金仓单有相对显 著的下降；国内外白银仓单骤降。 基本面： 1、美联储官员密集发声—①威廉姆斯：仍认为近期存在降息空间。②柯林斯：仍认为有理由对12月降息持谨慎态度，预计未来将进一步 降息。2、美国9月零售销售月率录得0.2%，逊于预期；9月PPI月率录得0.3%，与预期一致。ADP周度就业报告：截至2025年11月8日的四 周里，私人部门雇主平均每周减少13500个就业岗位。3、俄罗斯方面表示已收到美方关于乌克兰和平计划的"最新版本"，佩斯科夫称 现在说乌克兰和平协议即将达成还为时尚早。外媒：美国希望乌克兰先达成和平协议再谈安全保障。4、欧洲央行会议纪要：前景依然不 明朗，继续等待更多信息仍具有较高的选择权价值。有观点认为，降息周期已经结束。 2、白银AG 观点：在贸易战重启背景下经济衰退问题制约金银饰品 消费需求；贵金属的需求在于去 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity, but consumer spending has declined, and the downward pressure on the economic fundamentals persists, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index. The A-share market remains in a state of shrinking trading volume, and the market may enter a period of wait - and - see due to the marginal decline in liquidity. The bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline, but it remains weak in the near term. Steel prices are oscillating, with limited upward drivers. Nickel investors can consider closing short positions and potentially going long. Oil prices have rebounded despite an increase in EIA crude inventories [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's Beige Book indicates that tariffs increase corporate financial pressure. Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The market's risk appetite remained high, and the expectation of a December interest - rate cut by the Fed was further strengthened. Gold is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the short term [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax increase. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity but a decline in consumer spending. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [13][14][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market showed shrinking trading volume and divergence. Six departments issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand. The market may enter a wait - and - see period due to the marginal decline in liquidity. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [17][18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 216,000. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity. US economic data indicates that the economy remains resilient, and the market risk appetite has improved. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view overall and observe if the 50 - day moving average can provide strong support [20][21][22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 213.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 9.72 billion yuan. If the new regulations on fund fees are implemented in the short term, the bond market may rebound significantly. Otherwise, the bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline but will remain weak. It is recommended to expect a short - term recovery but remain bearish on the market [24][25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows a 3.24% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 20. The supply pressure on palm oil has eased, and the price has stabilized. It is advisable to wait for subsequent data [27]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in December is about 9.048 million tons, and the estimated soybean crushing volume in December is 9.569 million tons. The futures prices of soybeans are expected to remain oscillating. It is necessary to continue to monitor China's purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American producing areas [28][29][30][31]. 2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is weakening. The supply of coking coal is increasing, while the demand for coke from steel mills is seasonally declining. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream restocking situation [32][33]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In mid - November, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 1.943 million tons. Steel prices are oscillating. The recent increase in steel prices is related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand does not support a significant increase. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [33][35][36]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Three cold air masses will affect China. After the completion of winter stockpiling, coal prices are driven by actual supply and demand. It is necessary to monitor whether the daily coal consumption turns positive in December to support coal prices at a seasonal high [37]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - 230 steel enterprises have completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. Ore prices are expected to remain high and oscillating in December. It is advisable to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - European copper smelter Aurubis rejects low offers for copper concentrates. AI - driven data centers are becoming a new engine for copper demand. Macro - factors are mixed, and copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to go long on dips [40][41][42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49 per ton. The short - term fundamentals of lead are not weak. It is advisable to close short positions on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2 per ton. There is a risk of a mid - term squeeze on LME zinc. It is recommended to hold long positions in the calendar spread in the short term and exit the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage in a timely manner [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On November 26, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,038 tons. The smelting sector is gradually implementing production cuts, but the balance sheet still shows an oversupply. It is advisable for previous short - sellers to gradually close their positions and consider going long on dips. The situation of resource contraction in Indonesia needs to be evaluated in the medium term [47][48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The UK will include critical mineral reserves in its defense procurement plan. The lithium battery market has optimistic expectations, but there are still differences in short - term market sentiment. It is not recommended to chase the long side. If production resumes and demand weakens in the off - season, it is advisable to go short on the right side. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips [50][51]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased, and EIA commercial crude inventories increased. Oil prices rebounded. It is expected that oil prices will remain oscillating and weak in the short term [51][52][53]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased. The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [54][55]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory decreased significantly, but it is not a substantial positive factor. It is not recommended to go short, but it is advisable to wait and see for short - selling opportunities [56][57]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong showed mixed changes. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The short - term futures price is expected to remain weak. It is necessary to monitor whether supply reduction occurs due to profit compression [58][60][62]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. The decline in inventory supports the urea futures price. It is necessary to continue to monitor the release rhythm of winter storage demand [63][64]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market showed mixed price changes. It is expected that the pulp market will oscillate in the future [65][66]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Chinese ports will resume loading and unloading US soybeans. The spot price of W50 has dropped more than expected, and the European line futures price has declined. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is divided on future interest rate cuts, with market risk appetite difficult to repair, and the market is waiting for non - farm payroll data and NVIDIA's earnings report. [13] - Gold prices are in a downward trend, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut by the Fed is decreasing. [16] - The US dollar shows a short - term volatile trend as the market focuses more on hawkish statements. [21] - The domestic stock market is in a volatile adjustment, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has increased. [24] - The bond market is slightly stronger but is likely to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term. [27] - Most commodity markets show volatile trends, with different supply - demand situations and price trends in various sectors. [28][32][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials are divided on future interest rate cuts. Market risk appetite is difficult to repair, and it is recommended to wait and see. [13][14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US November New York Fed Manufacturing Index is higher than expected. Gold prices continue to fall, and it is recommended to observe whether the $4000 mark can be held. [15][16][17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement on Venezuela and Waller's support for a rate cut. The Fed is divided, and the US dollar shows a short - term volatile trend. [18][20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The domestic stock market is in a volatile adjustment, with a slight reduction in trading volume. It is recommended to stop buying long positions and consider reducing exposure if the market continues to correct. [23][24][25] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market is slightly stronger but is likely to remain in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset. [27][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Palm oil inventory increases, and exports decline. It is recommended to wait and see and be cautious about bottom - fishing. [28][29][30] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices rebound, but the fundamental contradiction is not fundamentally alleviated. It is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset. [32][33] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - International steam coal prices are strong. Coal prices are supported but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan mark. [34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Deep - processing enterprise profits decline slightly. It is recommended to conduct band operations. [36] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company acquires an iron ore project. Iron ore prices are in a volatile pattern with support from downstream valuation and pressure from fundamentals. [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is strong. Short - term fundamentals change little, and prices are in a volatile pattern. [39][40] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Xinjiang red dates are almost off the tree. The futures price is slightly up, and it is recommended to focus on price competition and acquisition progress in the production area. [40][41] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices rise. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the grain - selling progress in North China and wheat auctions. [42][43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A company's US battery factory plans to start production. Polysilicon prices are expected to remain stable in November, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities. [44][45][46] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon industry meeting may determine production - cut targets. It is recommended to go long on industrial silicon at low prices. [47][48] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Lead inventory increases before delivery. It is recommended to short at high prices and wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading. [49][50] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production increases. Zinc prices may enter a high - level volatile adjustment stage. It is recommended to hold short positions, focus on medium - term positive arbitrage, and short - term cross - border arbitrage. [52][53][54] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A gold company plans to split, and a copper mine in Congo has an accident. Copper prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage. [55][56][57] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increases. Nickel prices are under pressure in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on Indonesia's supply - contraction measures. [58][59][60] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company submits a lithium project feasibility study report. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but it is not recommended to chase the rise. [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Sanctions on Russian oil companies may have a long - term negative impact. Oil prices are in a short - term volatile pattern. [63][64] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt inventory decreases. Prices are expected to be stable and weak in the short term. [64][65] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong has a downward - moving trading center. The market is expected to be in a weak volatile pattern. [66][67] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - A pesticide standardization committee is established. Urea prices are in a volatile pattern, and the 01 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1560 - 1760 yuan/ton. [68][69][70] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports increases. It is recommended to wait and see for pure benzene and styrene. [71][72][74] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe has a general trend. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and a bearish view is taken in the medium term. [75] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market fall. The market is in a multi - empty game, and it is recommended to wait and see. [76] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - CMA CGM releases its Q3 results. The 12 - 02 spread has converged, and the market is expected to return to fundamental logic. [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, be cautious about the decline risk, not yet stabilized [14] - US Dollar: Short - term, expected to fluctuate [18] - Stock Index Futures: For each index, make a balanced long - position allocation [20] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term, high - level shock adjustment, but with a bullish bias due to profit support [24] - Treasury Bond Futures: The driving force for the bond market to strengthen is weak, it is recommended to observe more and act less [27] - Soybean Meal: Consider it as a wide - range shock, pay attention to the quantity and form of China's purchase of US soybeans and South American weather [30] - Cotton: Short - term, expected to fluctuate between 13200 - 13800; long - term, cautiously optimistic, wait for a callback to go long [34] - Edible Oils: The bottom of palm oil prices may have emerged, pay attention to the MPOB report and high - frequency production and demand data in November [36] - Coking Coal/Coke: Short - term, may continue to fluctuate, pay attention to the risk of falling hot metal production [38] - Live Pigs: After a significant rebound, short the 03 contract, and continuously pay attention to the long - position opportunity in the far - month contract [41] - Corn Starch: For the spot rice - flour price difference, the fundamentals are bearish in the medium - long term, but the market has over - reacted. It is recommended to conduct band trading [43] - Steam Coal: By early November, the price of 5500K coal at the port is close to 790 yuan, and it is expected to stabilize above 800 yuan in November [45] - Iron Ore: The price shows a weak shock, with limited reduction in hot metal production [46] - Corn: The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the medium - long term; do not be overly optimistic about the far - month contract [48] - Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil: In the short - term, consider the steel price as a weak shock [51] - Red Dates: During the harvest period, the game between futures and spot prices is intense. It is recommended to observe cautiously and focus on the price game and purchase progress in the production area [54] - Polysilicon: In November, it enters the critical point of policy and fundamental game. If the futures price pulls back to par or discount to the spot price, consider going long at low prices [57] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to go long at low prices [59] - Lead: In the short - term, be cautious when shorting; in the arbitrage aspect, there is a positive - spread arbitrage opportunity; be cautious in the internal - external market trading [61] - Zinc: In the short - term, wait and see, observe the right - side short - selling opportunity; in the arbitrage aspect, observe the positive - spread arbitrage opportunity; wait and see in the internal - external market trading [67] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to the medium - term short - selling opportunity at high prices [72] - Nickel: After the market risk is released, unilaterally bet on the return of valuation [74] - Carbon Emissions: Short - term, expected to fluctuate [76] - Methanol: Hold short positions, wait for the price to rebound and the market to return to the pattern of increasing short positions and falling prices, then add short positions, with a profit - taking target around 2100 yuan/ton [78] - Styrene: Wait and see until the concern about inventory over - filling is resolved [80] - PVC: It may maintain a low - level shock pattern [82] - Pulp: The risk of the futures price continuing to rise has increased significantly [83] - Soda Ash: In the short - term, pay attention to coal price fluctuations and new capacity release; in the medium - term, take a bearish view [85] - Float Glass: In the short - term, the market game is intense, it is recommended to wait and see [87] - Container Freight Index: Short - term, the futures price may fall back. Close short positions for profit, and appropriately pay attention to the long - position opportunity after the callback [89] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as Fed officials' statements, government shutdowns, and supply - demand relationships in various industries. The risk preference of the market has changed, and different investment opportunities and risks exist in different sectors [13][17][23] - In the commodity market, the supply and demand of different products vary. For example, the supply of some products is tight, while the demand of others is weak, which leads to different price trends and investment suggestions [34][38][40] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Geological Survey included copper, silver, and potash in the 2025 key mineral list. Fed official Hamrick believes that the current economic situation requires maintaining a tight monetary policy to control inflation. Most Fed officials are cautious about further interest rate cuts due to inflation risks and data shortages caused by the government shutdown. The gold price is in a short - term correction phase [12][13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple Fed officials oppose further interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, which causes the market risk preference to decline and the US dollar to fluctuate [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by nearly 1% and returned to 4000 points, with a significant increase in trading volume. The three major indexes rose unilaterally, and the computing power hardware industry chain and the electric power grid theme were active. In the absence of more incremental negative factors, the stock index fluctuates at a high level, and the ChiNext Index performs the most prominently [19][20] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of layoffs by US Challenger companies in October increased significantly year - on - year, which triggered market concerns about recession. The US stock market continued to adjust significantly. However, short - term data fluctuates greatly, and more non - farm data are needed for judgment after the government reopens. The short - term market is expected to adjust with high - level shocks, but a bullish bias can be maintained due to profit support [23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 928 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 2498 billion yuan on that day. Affected by the strong performance of the equity market, the bond market sentiment reversed rapidly. The driving force for the bond market to strengthen weakened, and there was a risk of decline at some times. It is recommended to pay attention to positive - spread arbitrage strategies [25][26] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in October increased significantly year - on - year, and the sowing of new - season soybeans in Argentina started well. China still imposes a 13% tariff on imported US soybeans, and the future supply in the domestic market depends on the state reserve release. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the spot price of soybean meal has decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to the US monthly supply - demand report and South American weather [28][29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The cotton harvest in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the focus of ginning factories has shifted to cotton processing and sales. The spot market mainly uses the "fixed - price" sales method. The procurement of raw materials by textile enterprises is still cautious. The increase in new cotton warehouse receipts suppresses the upside space of the futures price in the short - term [31][34] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Edible Oils - Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The price of palm oil rose due to increased demand from India and Pakistan. However, factors such as high production expectations, a decline in Malaysian exports in early November, and a strong ringgit may limit price increases. The spot price of palm oil is expected to have bottomed out, and attention should be paid to relevant reports and data [35][36] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the central - southern China market is running strongly. The overall supply is stable, and the downstream procurement is active. After the third round of price increases for coke was implemented, the profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the upside space for raw coal prices was limited. In the short - term, the spot market remains tight, but the peak of hot metal production has passed, and it may continue to fluctuate [37][38] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The sales revenue of live pigs of listed companies such as Wenshi and Muyuan decreased year - on - year in October. The futures price showed a bottom - rebound trend in the short - term, but the medium - term supply is expected to be more abundant, and it is recommended to short the 03 contract after a significant rebound and pay attention to the long - position opportunity in the far - month contract [39][40] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch by starch sugar products increased week - on - week. The downstream demand is good, and the substitution effect of cassava starch on corn starch has a certain marginal positive impact. The fundamentals are bearish for the spot rice - flour price difference in the medium - long term, but the market has over - reacted, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [42][43] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market continued to be strong on November 6. Due to factors such as railway freight adjustment, the arrival cost at the port increased, and the inventory was lower than the same period last year. The early arrival of cold air in winter increased the expectation of price increases. It is expected that the port coal price will be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term [44][45] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The production and sales of IOC's iron ore decreased quarter - on - quarter in the third quarter. The iron ore price is in a weak shock. Although the support from coking coal, coke, and steel plates limits the decline, the supply - demand contradiction increases seasonally, and there is no upward momentum [44][46] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the imported corn (targeted) auction increased. The spot price of corn is stable, and the futures price is strong. The demand for high - quality Northeast corn in the sales area is strong. The rumored wheat auction may relieve the short - term shortage of corn in North China. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the medium - long term, and do not be overly optimistic about the far - month contract [47][48] 3.2.10 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The average monthly working hours and the start - up rate of construction machinery decreased year - on - year in October. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week, but the de - stocking slowed down, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased again. The demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [49][50] 3.2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market is weakly stable. The harvest of red dates in Xinjiang has started, but the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is low. The spot price in the distribution area has decreased, and the profit margin of old red dates has declined. It is recommended to observe cautiously during the harvest period [52][53] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Sichuan launched the No. 136 bidding plan. The price of polysilicon is expected to decline in November due to the dry season. The inventory of upstream silicon material factories has increased, and the demand at the terminal has weakened. If the futures price pulls back to par or discount to the spot price, consider going long at low prices [55][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A solar cell technology - upgrading project in Jiangsu was publicly announced. The production of industrial silicon in the south is expected to decrease in November, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. The downstream maintains rigid procurement. It is more cost - effective to go long at low prices [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $30.22 per ton on November 5. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic SHFE lead price was blocked in its upward trend. The supply of lead is gradually recovering, but the risk of delivery in the medium - term cannot be ignored. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting and pay attention to positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc production of some overseas mining companies decreased in the third quarter. The Shanghai zinc price oscillated at a high level, supported by the macro - environment. The negotiation of long - term contracts is not going smoothly, the refinery's profit is under pressure, and the production is expected to decline in November and December. The domestic social inventory is high, and the export volume is small. The zinc price may maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [62][66] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Jiangxi Province announced the evaluation report of the mining right transfer income of the Jianxiawo lithium mine. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. It is recommended to pay attention to the medium - term short - selling opportunity at high prices [68][72] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia stopped approving certain nickel ore processing projects. The impact of this news is small. The nickel ore price in Indonesia is expected to be strong in the fourth quarter, and the supply of Philippine nickel ore is tight. The downstream demand for nickel is weak, and the nickel iron price is under pressure. After the market risk is released, unilaterally bet on the return of valuation [73][74] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on November 6 was 54.86 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from the previous day. The trading volume increased slightly, and the price rebounded. The carbon price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the rigid demand during the compliance peak period [75] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol production and capacity utilization increased this week, while the capacity utilization of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased slightly. The supply - demand balance in the port area is still not optimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions and wait for the price to rebound and then add short positions [77][78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production increased this week, mainly due to the restart of some plants and the new production capacity. The styrene price is expected to face the risk of inventory accumulation in December. It is recommended to wait and see until the concern about inventory over - filling is resolved [79][80] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market decreased. The futures price first declined and then rebounded. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The high - inventory situation will continue in the fourth quarter, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [81][82] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market showed a strengthening trend. The futures price of pulp continued to rise. The risk of the futures price continuing to rise has increased significantly due to the possibility of registering warehouse receipts [83] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased on November 6 compared with Monday. The futures price of soda ash strengthened due to cost increases. The supply of soda ash increased slightly, and the downstream demand remained stable. In the short - term, pay attention to coal price fluctuations and new capacity release; in the medium - term, take a bearish view [84][85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased this week, mainly due to the news of production line shutdowns in the Shahe area. However, the inventory of middlemen and futures - cash traders has reached a new high, and the de - stocking pressure is large. As the weather turns cold, the demand in the north will enter the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see due to the intense market game [86][87] 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight) - Maersk's third - quarter performance was strong, but its revenue decreased year - on - year. The European

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price may experience a short - term decline due to the end of the Middle - East conflict and the full pricing of positive factors [12][13]. - The US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. - US stock index futures are likely to maintain a relatively strong trend after the impact of the government shutdown event subsides [21]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a short - term high - level trend, and it is recommended to allocate stock index futures evenly [26][27]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term, and it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [28][29]. - Palm oil prices are expected to continue to rise due to Indonesia's biodiesel policy [31]. - ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to have a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [36][37]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and short - term callback risks need to be noted [39][40]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to continue to decline seasonally [41]. - Iron ore prices are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, but steel mills may face production cut pressure in mid - to late October [42]. - The price of red dates may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the acquisition price in the production area [45]. - The spot price of polysilicon may remain flat, and the price of components is expected to fluctuate in the short term [47][48]. - It is advisable to go long on industrial silicon on dips, but be cautious when chasing highs [52]. - For lead, it is advisable to wait for a pullback to lay out medium - term long positions and pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [53]. - For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and there are positive spread arbitrage opportunities [55]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread arbitrage opportunity between LC2511 - 2512 [57]. - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach [60][61]. - The downward space of the LPG contract is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to shrink PDH profits [64]. - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [66]. - The natural gas price is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [68]. - The downward space of the caustic soda futures price may be limited [71]. - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [73]. - The PVC price is difficult to decline further, and attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [76]. - The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on processing fees [78]. - It is advisable to stop profiting on short positions of urea gradually [81]. - It is advisable to stop profiting on positions to shrink the styrene - benzene spread [83]. - It is advisable to short sell soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [85]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting soda ash 2601 [86]. - The container freight rate index 12 - contract is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [88][89]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Middle - East cease - fire agreement and full pricing of positive factors lead to a high - level correction of gold prices. Gold prices may fall due to short - term profit - taking by bulls [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump may impose more sanctions on Russia, and the Fed is cautious about further interest rate cuts. The US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - TSMC's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations. Amid the vacuum of macro data, the market is sensitive to AI industry news. After the impact of the government shutdown event subsides, US stock index futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend [19][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points, reaching a new high in nearly a decade. The stock market showed strong sentiment on the first trading day after the holiday, and it is recommended to allocate stock index futures evenly [22][26][27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan. Due to weak terminal demand, the bond market strengthened against the stock market. It is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term, and it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel plan next year, which will tighten the global palm oil supply - demand pattern. Palm oil prices are expected to continue to rise [30][31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production was strong in the first half of September, but the high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decrease in production later. ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to have a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [35][36][37]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks and the CMI index increased in September. After the holiday, the steel price continued to oscillate, and the market entered the peak - season demand verification period. Short - term callback risks need to be noted [38][39][40]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The supply of thermal coal was not loose during the National Day, but the demand was seasonally weak. The price is expected to continue to decline seasonally [41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Brazilian mining company Minerita signed a contract with Metso. Iron ore prices are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, but steel mills may face production cut pressure in mid - to late October [42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are entering the drying period. The price of the futures main contract rose after the holiday. The current inventory is at a relatively high level, and the price may rebound in the short term [43][44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells and components. The polysilicon spot price may remain flat, and the component price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [46][47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Two departments aimed to regulate price competition. The seasonal inventory change of industrial silicon is not obvious. It is advisable to go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing highs [50][52]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount, and the domestic lead inventory decreased. The price of lead is expected to oscillate and rise. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to lay out medium - term long positions and pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly. The zinc price is recommended to be treated with a wait - and - see attitude in the short term, and there are positive spread arbitrage opportunities [54][55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtained mining rights. The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread arbitrage opportunity between LC2511 - 2512 [56][57]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Indonesia introduced policies to help SMEs obtain mining rights, and Teck Resources lowered its copper production forecast. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach [58][59][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of Middle - East LPG changed, and some PDH devices had maintenance plans. The downward space of the LPG contract is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to shrink PDH profits [62][63][64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased slightly. The carbon market supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65][66]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased. The natural gas price is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [67][68]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted flexibly after the holiday. The downward space of the caustic soda futures price may be limited [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mostly stable. The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price decreased. The price is difficult to decline further, and attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [74][76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips was adjusted slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on processing fees [77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased. It is advisable to stop profiting on short positions of urea gradually [79][81]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. It is advisable to stop profiting on positions to shrink the styrene - benzene spread [82][83]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. It is advisable to short sell soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [84][85]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting soda ash 2601 [85][86]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The throughput of major ports increased from January to August. The container freight rate index 12 - contract is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [87][88][89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Futures market conditions during the 2025 National Day holiday varied across different sectors. Some commodities showed price increases due to factors like supply disruptions, geopolitical events, and market sentiment, while others faced downward pressure from factors such as supply - demand imbalances and macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4][9] - Different commodities have different risk levels and corresponding operation strategies based on their specific fundamentals, including factors like supply, demand, inventory, and policy expectations [4][5][6] Summary by Category Financial Futures Index Futures - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The US government shutdown, delayed non - farm data, and changes in global political situations affected the market. Domestic holiday travel and movie consumption showed certain trends [4] - **Operation Strategy**: Focus on IF, IC, IM boosted by the 14th Five - Year Plan [4] Treasury Bonds - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The 10 - year treasury bond rate oscillated around 1.8%, with limited capital gain space. Short - end coupon strategies were relatively stable, but there were risks of increased capital fluctuations in the fourth quarter [5] - **Operation Strategy**: Control duration, prioritize dumbbell - shaped allocation, defend at the short - end, and wait for higher odds for long - end trading [5] Precious Metals Gold - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Delayed non - farm data, lower - than - expected ADP employment data, and the US government shutdown risk drove up the risk - aversion sentiment. There were differences in the market's expectation of the year - end interest rate cut, and the US economic data showed a downward trend [6] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions and build new long positions on dips after the holiday [6] Silver - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Similar to gold, and there was still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair during the interest rate cut process [7][8] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and be cautious about opening new positions [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by mine accidents and domestic smelter overhauls. Terminal consumption was weak but had potential for improvement. Inventories were at a low level, and domestic policies might be strengthened [9] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips [9] Aluminum - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and there was room for domestic LPR adjustment. Alumina supply was generally loose, while electrolytic aluminum supply was stable with limited growth. Demand entered the peak season, and inventory decreased [11] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [12] Nickel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Indonesia adjusted the RKAB cycle, which brought uncertainty to the nickel ore supply. Nickel remained in an oversupply situation, and the downstream stainless - steel market was weak [13] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or hold short positions moderately on rallies [13] Tin - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tightened due to the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia. The semiconductor industry was recovering, and inventories were decreasing [15] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions moderately on dips [14][15] Black Building Materials Steel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: During the holiday, steel billet prices were stable, and iron ore futures rose slightly. The current situation was weak in the industry but strong in the macro - aspect, and attention should be paid to the inventory increase after the holiday [16] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the support around 3000 for RB2601 [16] Iron Ore - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profitability was at a relatively high level, and short - term negative feedback was unlikely. The key was whether steel demand could support the high iron - making water output [18] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading [18] Glass - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment was boosted by news and price increases of some manufacturers. Supply was stable, demand was in the peak season, and inventories were decreasing [20] - **Operation Strategy**: Maintain the long strategy for the 01 contract, hold existing long positions, and open new long positions on dips, paying attention to the support at 1160 - 1200 [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines in Shanxi had short - term production suspensions, and Mongolian coal imports were expected to increase after the holiday. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, but the second round failed [23] - **Operation Strategy**: Wait and pay attention to the new round of industrial inventory transfer after the holiday [23] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical disturbances did not have a substantial impact on supply. The "supply increase and demand decrease" situation persisted, and prices were under pressure during the holiday [25] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as weak and oscillating [25] PVC - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Cost was at a low - profit level, supply was high, and demand was affected by the real - estate market and export policies [27] - **Operation Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the text Caustic Soda - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation. Supply was affected by upstream inventory and liquid chlorine, and demand was increasing marginally [28] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as oscillating, and pay attention to the range of 2450 - 2650 for the 01 contract [28] Urea - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, agricultural demand was scattered, and inventory was accumulating. The supply - demand pattern of compound fertilizers improved slightly [31] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [31] Methanol - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, the demand of the main downstream (methanol - to - olefins) was strong, and inventories were decreasing [33] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct range trading, and pay attention to the range of 2330 - 2450 for the 01 contract [33] Soda Ash - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and upstream faced inventory accumulation pressure after the holiday [35] - **Operation Strategy**: Without policy support, the market may weaken PTA - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: The market changed little during the holiday. After - holiday maintenance of some devices and slow recovery of downstream weaving affected the inventory situation. Cost - end oil prices declined [36] - **Operation Strategy**: The price may oscillate between 4500 - 4800, and producers should conduct hedging on rallies in the fourth quarter [36] Agricultural Products Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Cotton purchase prices were stable during the holiday. Due to the US government shutdown, US cotton data was suspended, and price fluctuations were small [39] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct selling hedging on rallies [39] Live Pigs - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Pig prices declined during the holiday due to oversupply. In the long - term, supply will increase before May next year, and prices will be under pressure [40] - **Operation Strategy**: The futures market is expected to open lower. Adopt a long - term short - selling strategy for 11, 01, 03, 05 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts, and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on 05 and short on 03 [41] Corn - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: New - season corn prices declined due to concerns about quality and increased supply. Demand was weak in the short - term but had potential for recovery in the long - term [43] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on the futures market, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [43] Eggs - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices were weak during the holiday. Supply growth slowed down, but there was still pressure. There was replenishment demand after the holiday, but prices were under pressure in the long - term [45] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold short positions for the 11 - month contract. Be cautious about short - selling the 12 and 01 contracts, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [46] Meal - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly during the holiday. Domestic soybean supply was expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and soybean meal inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to rise slightly in November [48] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips and reduce positions on rallies for M2601, and pay attention to the support at 2900 - 2930 [48] Oils - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil and soybean oil prices rose slightly during the holiday. Malaysian palm oil exports were strong, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. Domestic oil inventories were high in the short - term [50] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips for 01 contracts of palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread [50]

Background of Forex Futures - Forex futures originated in the 1970s, driven by the significant changes in the international monetary system, particularly the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4][5] - The Bretton Woods system established fixed exchange rates between currencies and the US dollar, which was pegged to gold, minimizing foreign exchange risk [4] - The collapse of this system in 1973 and the subsequent Jamaica Agreement in 1976 allowed countries to choose their exchange rate systems freely, increasing foreign exchange risk and the demand for risk management [4][5] Development of Forex Futures in the US - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched the first forex futures contracts in May 1972, marking the establishment of the forex futures market [6] - The market expanded rapidly after the Jamaica Agreement, with other exchanges like NYMEX and NYFE entering the forex futures business [6] - By 1982, standardized forex options were introduced, further diversifying the forex derivatives market [6][7] Current State of Forex Futures in the US - The CME is the primary market for forex futures and options in the US, continuously introducing new forex derivatives to meet diverse investor needs [2][10] - In 2024, the CME's average daily trading volume reached 26.5 million contracts, a 9% increase from 2023, with forex products averaging 1.03 million contracts daily, an 8% year-on-year growth [14] - The most traded forex futures in 2024 included the Euro (258,000 contracts), Japanese Yen (192,000 contracts), and British Pound (120,000 contracts) [14] Trends in Forex Futures Development - There is an increasing demand for forex derivatives due to heightened market volatility and the need for effective risk management [16] - Emerging market currency derivatives are expected to see significant growth as economies develop and trade volumes increase, particularly in regions like Latin America [16]