日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普称伊朗军事能力遭重创 否认被以色 列"拖入战争" [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-03-04 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普称伊朗军事能力遭重创 否认被以色列"拖入战争" 市场关注的焦点继续在美伊战争，能源价格走高引发通胀担忧， 形成流动性紧缩，市场风险偏好大幅度走低。 宏观策略（股指期货） 避险情绪升级，A 股放量下跌 综 伊朗战争形势逐渐外溢，市场担忧战争形势失控，风险资产大 幅下杀。同时由于对通胀的担忧导致加息交易有所冒头。市场 当前交易逻辑混乱，我们仍建议以避险为主，适当减仓。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行 2 月公开市场国债买卖净投放 500 亿元 报 滞胀压力若上升，债市难以走出单边行情，极限点位有交易反 向逻辑而反转的可能，建议关注波段操作机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 全国政协十四届四次会议 4 日下午开幕，会期 7 天 虽然有地缘政治因素扰动，能源价格大幅上涨，但钢价延续弱 势震荡格局，核心依然在于基本面的压制。预计终端需求实质 性改善前，短期钢价依然难有明显驱动。 能源化工（甲醇） 卡塔尔能源公司停止甲醇生产 预计短期甲醇期货 ...

宏观策略（股指期货） 国资委：央企要着眼开辟增长"第二曲线" 日度报告——综合晨报 美国政府结束部分停摆状态，股指盘中 V 型 反转 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-04 受消息面扰动，股指盘中 V 型反转。在宏观空窗期、且叠加贵 金属风波宣泄后，股市以题材、概念为主的结构牛模式再度回 归。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国政府结束部分停摆状态 综 合 黄金大幅反弹收复前日失地，市场恐慌式下跌阶段结束，在触 碰到 60 日均线后亦有抄底资金介入，短期金价步入震荡阶段。 美联储官员陆续发表讲话，米兰表示还需降 100bp。 晨 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 报 米兰称今年需降息逾一个百分点 美军击落伊朗无人机，地缘局势持续高温，市场风险偏好走低， 美元指数震荡。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 印度：1 月份棕榈油进口量激增 51% 印度 1 月棕榈油进口预计大幅增加，1 月马棕高频数据延续减产 预测 能源化工（原油） 美国 API 原油库存大幅下降 油价反弹，美伊摩擦事件导致风险溢价略回升。 航运指数（集装箱运价） 吉大港彻底停摆 弱现实与地缘扰动因素交织，预计短期 04 合约波动幅度仍将较 大建 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the current panic surrounding the US dollar is exaggerated, and a diversified investment strategy involving both the dollar and gold is recommended [1][2]. - Alexander Campbell suggests that holding gold positions is essentially equivalent to shorting the dollar, as gold is priced in dollars and tends to attract speculative funds when the dollar weakens [1][2]. - The so-called "currency devaluation" trade is more driven by market sentiment rather than actual trading behavior, with investors not fleeing the dollar en masse but rather under-allocating to gold and silver due to a long-term bull market and low inflation [2]. Group 2 - Campbell highlights that significant concerns regarding the dollar's future, such as large-scale liquidation of US Treasuries by Japanese insurers or a drop in the dollar's share of international payments, have not materialized [3]. - For those believing in a "dollar doomsday," Campbell advises shorting US stocks and bonds, as actual selling of these assets would reflect genuine bearish sentiment towards the dollar [3]. - Investors anticipating a controlled decline of the dollar are encouraged to hold a mix of gold, dollars, and short-term assets, drawing parallels to market strategies from 2000 to 2010 when the dollar also experienced a downtrend [3].

本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN T98JZ6KIP3LA 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 伴随行业飞速发展、地缘政治博弈、供需天平摇摆…全球能源市场时刻处于动荡之中。彭博行 业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您及时传递行业动态，并基于高质量数据、模型与分析 助您解读市场变化，看见全局、看向前景。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博能源行业研究双周报 本期主题： 石油交易员预计油价短期内触底 部分由于美国对伊朗采取军事行动 （彭博行业研究）——尽管OPEC+尚未完全解除减产措施，但在全球地缘政治冲突的背景 下，石油市场充满不确定性。美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，WTI原油期货净 多头头寸触底，美元净空头头寸持续收窄，表明市场对避险资产的需求正在上升。短期内， WTI原油价格可能在每桶6 0美元附近触底。 CFTC数据显示WTI原油期货净多头头寸在15年低点附近见底 CFTC数据显示，截至1月1 6日当周，纽约商品交易所WTI原油期货非商业净多头合约降至 5 8 , 1 2 8张，较7月4日减少7 5 . 3%。受OPEC+增产预期及全球需求疲软影响， ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for December is significant as it is the first complete month unaffected by the government shutdown, with expectations for stable employment figures [1][9]. Employment Data - The expected change in non-farm employment for December is around 60,000, with a previous value of 64,000, indicating a stable outlook [1][9]. - The unemployment rate for December is anticipated to be 4.5%, slightly down from the previous 4.6%, reflecting a stable labor market [1][9]. Market Expectations - The stability in employment expectations is attributed to the absence of government shutdowns in December, unlike the previous months [1][9]. - The ADP employment data, which serves as a precursor to the non-farm payroll report, showed a positive shift from a previous value of -29,000 to a current value of 41,000, suggesting a potential positive trend in the upcoming non-farm report [3][9]. Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index is showing signs of a potential breakout from its current mid-term consolidation range, having started a rebound since December 24 [6][12]. - The established trading range for the dollar index is between 96.34 and 100.23, with the latest upward movement facing resistance near the 100-point mark [7][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index)**: Maintain a volatile outlook [15] - **Macro Strategy (Gold)**: Short - term, beware of continued correction risks, consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [20] - **Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Expected to run strongly with a volatile trend, maintain a bullish view [25] - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: Continue to hold long - term strategies [27] - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: Market is weak, not recommended to bet on oversold rebounds; if there is a rebound, consider short - selling opportunities [30] - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Short - term sentiment dominates, steel prices may rebound further, but still need to beware of risks [34] - **Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke)**: Short - term trends are less related to fundamental changes, focus on capital sentiment and policy news [37] - **Black Metal (Steam Coal)**: Prices expected to remain stable in January [40] - **Black Metal (Iron Ore)**: Prices expected to remain strong in the next two weeks [41] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: Be cautious of the risk of price drops due to capital withdrawal [46] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: Futures prices have rebounded from lows, pay attention to state - reserve sales and customs policies; the May contract lacks a basis for continuous sharp increases under a bumper South American harvest [47] - **Agricultural Products (Hogs)**: Unilateral: Go short on near - term contracts on significant rebounds; Arbitrage: Maintain a reverse arbitrage strategy [51] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: If the MPOB report is not overly bearish and high - frequency data shows continued production cuts and increased exports, consider long positions on the May contract; for rapeseed oil, be cautious due to policy uncertainties [54] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: Consider avoiding short positions for the time being. When the price rises above 9000 RMB/ton, consider short positions based on industry hedging conditions [58] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [62] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Unilateral: Be cautious about chasing up prices, and take profits on previous long positions in batches; Arbitrage: Wait and see for both monthly spreads and internal - external spreads [65] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The industry pattern may change significantly. Consider buying put options to participate in the market [69] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Unilateral: Wait patiently for opportunities to buy on dips; Arbitrage: Wait and see [73] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: The market is sensitive to positive information, prices are expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing up [76] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Closely observe short - term capital intentions, and set acceptable stop - losses when going long [77] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: Pay attention to supply recovery and demand improvement, beware of price drops when the capital enthusiasm fades [81] - **Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Market concerns about oversupply continue to suppress oil prices [83] - **Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt)**: Prices expected to be volatile [85] - **Energy and Chemicals (Styrene)**: Temporarily treat the market as volatile in the short term [89] - **Energy and Chemicals (PTA)**: Short - term volatile adjustment, consider going long on dips [92] - **Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: In the capacity expansion cycle, maintain a bearish view in the medium term, recommend short - selling on the far - month contracts [94] - **Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The FG contract is expected to fluctuate between 900 - 1250 RMB/ton in 2026, recommend short - selling on rallies. Pay attention to potential supply - side changes [97] 2. Core Views - The US ADP employment showed moderate growth, indicating a mild downward trend in the labor market, and the US dollar index fluctuated [14] - Gold prices fluctuated and declined, the precious metals sector corrected, and funds shifted between commodity sectors [18] - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 14 consecutive positive days. A - shares continued to rise with increasing trading volume. Despite market concerns about regulatory cooling, the market still has strong momentum due to abundant domestic liquidity and a bullish pattern [27] - International steam coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend. Although there were news of capacity reduction in Yulin, overall supply was expected to remain stable in 2026 due to new mine production and weak demand, and coal prices were expected to be stable in January [40] - The BMI predicted that the merger and acquisition boom in the mineral metals industry would continue in 2026. Macro factors supporting copper prices may weaken, and short - term fundamentals may suppress copper price increases, with copper prices likely to shift to a volatile pattern [73] - US EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased significantly, and oil prices fluctuated weakly [82] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump plans to ban Wall Street from investing in single - family homes, aiming to reduce housing prices, which may impact private equity owners and homebuilder stocks [12] - US ADP private - sector employment increased by 41,000 in December, mainly driven by the service industry, indicating a mild recovery in the labor market. The US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [13][14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US ADP employment in December was 41,000, slightly lower than expected. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI in December was 54.4, higher than expected [16][17] - China's official gold reserves increased by 300,000 ounces in December 2025. Gold prices fluctuated and declined, the precious metals sector corrected, and short - term precious metals still face downward risks [18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Energy Secretary will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales. The US 12 - month ISM services PMI reached a new high in more than a year, but the employment market demand continued to cool down. The US stock market is expected to be volatile and strong [21][22][24][25] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 14 consecutive positive days. A - shares were in a bullish sentiment with increasing trading volume. The market has strong momentum due to abundant liquidity [26][27] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation. The bond market is affected by commodity price increases. The overall bond market logic is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [28][29][30] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In December, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 13% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 10% year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded due to the strong performance of metal prices. Short - term steel prices may continue to rise due to market sentiment, but the actual supply - demand situation is difficult to improve significantly [31][32][33][34] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market remained stable. The recent sharp increase in coking coal futures was mainly driven by macro capital rotation and news sentiment, with limited connection to fundamentals. The short - term trend is mainly affected by capital and sentiment [35][36][37] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - International steam coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend on January 7. Although there were capacity reduction news in Yulin, overall supply was expected to remain stable in 2026, and coal prices were expected to be stable in January [38][40] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The third - stage expansion of the Tonkolili iron ore project in Sierra Leone is advancing. Iron ore prices are expected to remain strong in the next two weeks due to the expected increase in iron - making water production and the low inventory of steel mills [41] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US cotton planting area in 2026 may slightly decrease. The new cotton import quota policy has stimulated the domestic import cotton market, but the large inflow of imported cotton and yarn may impact the domestic market. Zhengzhou cotton futures may face a risk of price drops due to capital withdrawal [42][43][45][46] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 3.383 million tons of soybeans in December. China is still purchasing US soybeans. The price of domestic soybean meal futures has rebounded from lows, but the May contract lacks a basis for continuous sharp increases under a bumper South American harvest [47] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The sales volume of hogs of some companies increased in December. The hog futures market has a short - term high - level shock, but the medium - term fundamentals are weak, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [48][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.64% in December. Indonesia may confiscate 5 - million - hectare palm plantations in 2026. The short - term trend of the oil market depends on MPOB data and high - frequency data [52][53][54] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon industry meeting may discuss measures to boost market confidence. The price of industrial silicon followed the increase of coking coal. In the long term, the oversupply pattern of industrial silicon is difficult to change [55][56][57][58] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price had a high - level correction, and the domestic waste battery supply was tight. The lead price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [59][60][61][62] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc price fluctuated and corrected. The short - term zinc price may follow macro fluctuations, and the medium - term price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [63][64][65] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are rumors of production cuts by leading polysilicon companies, and the market is concerned about antitrust issues. The polysilicon industry pattern may change significantly, and buying put options is recommended [66][67][68][69] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The BMI predicted that the merger and acquisition boom in the mineral metals industry would continue in 2026. The short - term copper price is likely to shift to a volatile pattern, and waiting for opportunities to buy on dips is recommended [70][73] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company plans to invest 3.688 billion yuan in a lithium ore project. The lithium carbonate market is sensitive to positive information, and prices are expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing up [74][75][76] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increased significantly. The nickel price has been strong due to supply reduction expectations, but be cautious when going long and set stop - losses [76][77] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to supply recovery and demand improvement, and beware of price drops when the capital enthusiasm fades [78][79][80][81] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased significantly, and oil prices fluctuated weakly [82][83] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries decreased. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile [84][85] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. The market is concerned about the impact of the new naphtha consumption tax policy on the cost of olefins and aromatics. The short - term market is expected to be volatile [86][87][88][89] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis was strong. The short - term PTA market is in a volatile adjustment stage, and going long on dips is recommended [90][91][92] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area was stable. The soda ash futures price increased due to macro sentiment. In the capacity expansion cycle, the medium - term trend of soda ash is bearish [93][94] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Hubei market was stable. The glass futures price increased due to market sentiment. The supply - side changes in 2026 may affect the glass market, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [95][96][97]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Gold**: Short - term, pay attention to the risk of decline, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [11][12] - **US Dollar**: Short - term shock [14][15] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Expected to operate in a shock - upward manner, and maintain a bullish view [17][18] - **Stock Index Futures**: Continue to hold the long - position strategy and allocate the stock indexes evenly [19][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [21][23] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient. Focus on state reserve and customs policies. Without abnormal production cuts in South America, the supply - demand situation does not support a significant upward movement of the May contract [25] - **Steam Coal**: The coal price is expected to continue to weaken in January. Later, focus on whether the policy side will restrict supply when the coal price hits the previous low again [26][28] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to maintain a shock market with certain support [29] - **Copper**: In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - term, patiently wait for opportunities to go long at low prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [32] - **Zinc**: Unilaterally, continue to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips. For arbitrage, the positive spread should turn to waiting and see, and the internal - external spread should be treated with an internal - external reverse spread strategy [34] - **Lead**: Unilaterally and for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [38] - **Nickel**: Expected to return to a shock trend. If the RKAB quota is only 250 million tons, there will still be a large upside space [41] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [43][44] - **Tin**: The inventory accumulation may put pressure on the short - term futures price. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the ore supply will persist. Be vigilant about the price decline risk after the capital boom fades [48][49] - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short - term [50][51] - **Asphalt**: The price will fluctuate in the short - term [52][53] - **Urea**: Do not chase the rise for now. After the Spring Festival, pay attention to the start time and rhythm of spring plowing fertilizer demand and next year's export policy fluctuations. Try to go long at low prices when the relative valuation provides a certain safety margin [55] - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, maintain a bullish view [57][58] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial instruments and commodities, including macro - strategy (such as foreign exchange futures, stock index futures, gold), agricultural products (soybean meal), black metals (steam coal, iron ore), non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, etc.), and energy chemicals (crude oil, asphalt, etc.). It points out the influencing factors of each market, such as geopolitical events, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and gives corresponding investment suggestions [11][14][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro - Strategy (Gold) - CME will raise the performance margin of multiple metal futures such as gold, silver, and lithium. Gold and silver prices dropped sharply. The short - squeeze trading in silver has temporarily ended. With the poor market liquidity around the holiday and the increase in margin, the selling pressure has intensified. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday. After the holiday, pay attention to the potential decline risk caused by the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight in mid - January [11] 3.1.2 Macro - Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's peace plan has encountered new obstacles. Russia said that Ukraine attacked Putin's residence, causing the cease - fire plan to stall. The US - Russia situation has new variables, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short - term [14][15] 3.1.3 Macro - Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US existing - home sales in November reached a new high since the beginning of 2023. Trump is considering suing Powell. The mortgage rate has slightly decreased, leading to a marginal recovery in the real estate sector. However, the future interest - rate cut path is still uncertain. The US stock index futures are expected to operate in a shock - upward manner [16][17][18] 3.1.4 Macro - Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Stock Index has recorded nine consecutive positive days with heavy trading volume. The A - share market has large price fluctuations, with the commercial space concept rising significantly and the ChiNext Index falling. The expansion of liquidity is the main driving force for the recent market. It is recommended to continue holding the long - position strategy and allocate the stock indexes evenly [19][20] 3.1.5 Macro - Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 482.3 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The decline in the bond market is mainly due to institutional behavior. It is necessary to be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [21][23] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The port soybean inventory has decreased, while the oil - mill soybean meal inventory has continued to rise. The market is concerned about China's purchase of US soybeans. The South American production outlook is optimistic. As long as there is no abnormal production cut in South America, the supply - demand situation does not support a significant upward movement of the May contract [24][25] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on December 29. The coal price accelerated its decline this week. Considering the warm winter in December and January, the coal price is expected to continue to weaken in January. Later, focus on whether the policy will restrict supply when the coal price hits the previous low again [26][28] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Champion Iron plans to acquire Rana Gruber. The iron - ore price has strong support. The decline risk of molten iron has slowed down, and the downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment may increase slightly. However, the market's expectation for the post - holiday demand is still cautious, and the iron - ore price is expected to maintain a shock market [29] 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - High - end predicts the average copper price in 2026 to be $11,400/ton. The Khoemacau copper mine expansion project has been approved. The copper price has significantly corrected. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - term, patiently wait for opportunities to go long at low prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [30][31][32] 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The import and export tariffs of zinc products in 2026 remain unchanged. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and the domestic social inventory has continued to decline. The zinc price mainly fluctuates with the macro situation. In the medium - term, it is still in an upward - prone state. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips [33][34] 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Tianneng and Chaowei have launched sodium - ion batteries. The import tariffs of lead - acid batteries in some countries will be reduced in 2026. The lead price has limited upward space. It is advisable to adopt a shock - trading strategy [35][36][37] 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The social inventory of refined nickel remains high, and the market trading has become lighter. The RKAB quota and the pricing of cobalt at the mine end may support the nickel price. However, it is expected to return to a shock trend [39][40][41] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Technology's subsidiary will conduct production - reduction maintenance on some lithium - iron - phosphate production lines. The lithium - carbonate price may have short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [42][43][44] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The export tax rates of tin - related products will be adjusted in 2026. The inventory of tin has increased. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulation may put pressure on the short - term price, and the long - term supply uncertainty persists [45][46][48] 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude - oil inventory has slightly increased. The oil price has rebounded due to the geopolitical conflict. The supply is relatively abundant, and the global inventory pressure is large in the off - peak demand season [50][51] 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social warehouses has decreased. In the short - term, the asphalt market is expected to operate stably [52][53] 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory has decreased. The urea price has fluctuated strongly recently. The supply may increase in the future, and the demand is mainly from the trading link. Do not chase the rise for now, and pay attention to relevant factors after the Spring Festival [54][55] 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has increased. The styrene price has been running strongly recently. In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, maintain a bullish view [56][57][58]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metal Futures - November 28, 2025 [1] Core Views Gold AU - Trade war and economic recession curb consumption demand for gold and silver jewelry; precious metal demand comes from sovereign funds' de-dollarization [2]. - US interest rate cuts, dollar depreciation, and lower yield curves support precious metals; domestic gold warehouse receipts rise, US gold warehouse receipts fall, and domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts drop sharply [2]. Silver AG - Similar to gold, trade war and economic recession impact jewelry consumption; demand from de - dollarization and interest - rate factors support prices; changes in warehouse receipts are the same as gold [4] Summary by Directory One - week Policy and Fundamental Review - Europe proposed a counter - proposal including US protection, Ukraine's non - military recovery of occupied territories, and conditions for Ukraine's NATO membership [9]. - Fed officials' views on interest rate cuts vary; some see room for cuts, others are cautious about December cuts but expect future cuts [9]. - US economic data shows mixed performance, with some indices at multi - month lows or highs, and private sector job losses [9]. - Trump administration prepares tariff backup plans; US may take new actions against Venezuela; and there are various international events such as Japan's economic stimulus and Italy's rating upgrade [9]. Gold Market Tracking - COMEX gold futures and options: long positions are 122,450, short positions are 35,978; ETF and other positions and their changes are also presented [10]. - Gold ETF total holdings, SPDR and iShares holdings, and changes in futures positions and warehouse receipts are tracked over time [10][11][13]. Silver Market Tracking - COMEX silver futures and options: long positions are 44,277, short positions are 27,801; ETF and other positions and their changes are shown [15]. - Silver ETF total holdings, SLV holdings, and changes in futures positions and warehouse receipts are tracked over time [15][16][18]. Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - Import gold and silver hedging profit margins are tracked over time, showing fluctuations [21]. Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - ICE dollar index non - commercial net long positions and total positions are tracked over time [23]. US Treasury Futures Position Tracking - Non - commercial net long positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury futures and options, as well as total positions, are tracked over time [26][27][28]. US Inflation Expectation - 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year break - even inflation rates are presented over a period [31]. US Real Interest Rate - 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury real yield curves are shown over a long - term period [33]. US Interest Rate Term Structure - US Treasury interest rates, real interest rates, and inflation expectations for different maturities are presented [35][36]. US and Major Non - US Countries' 2 - year Treasury Yield Spreads - Yield spreads between US 2 - year Treasury and those of UK, Japan, China, and Germany are tracked over time [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity, but consumer spending has declined, and the downward pressure on the economic fundamentals persists, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index. The A-share market remains in a state of shrinking trading volume, and the market may enter a period of wait - and - see due to the marginal decline in liquidity. The bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline, but it remains weak in the near term. Steel prices are oscillating, with limited upward drivers. Nickel investors can consider closing short positions and potentially going long. Oil prices have rebounded despite an increase in EIA crude inventories [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's Beige Book indicates that tariffs increase corporate financial pressure. Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The market's risk appetite remained high, and the expectation of a December interest - rate cut by the Fed was further strengthened. Gold is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the short term [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax increase. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity but a decline in consumer spending. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [13][14][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market showed shrinking trading volume and divergence. Six departments issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand. The market may enter a wait - and - see period due to the marginal decline in liquidity. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [17][18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 216,000. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity. US economic data indicates that the economy remains resilient, and the market risk appetite has improved. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view overall and observe if the 50 - day moving average can provide strong support [20][21][22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 213.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 9.72 billion yuan. If the new regulations on fund fees are implemented in the short term, the bond market may rebound significantly. Otherwise, the bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline but will remain weak. It is recommended to expect a short - term recovery but remain bearish on the market [24][25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows a 3.24% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 20. The supply pressure on palm oil has eased, and the price has stabilized. It is advisable to wait for subsequent data [27]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in December is about 9.048 million tons, and the estimated soybean crushing volume in December is 9.569 million tons. The futures prices of soybeans are expected to remain oscillating. It is necessary to continue to monitor China's purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American producing areas [28][29][30][31]. 2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is weakening. The supply of coking coal is increasing, while the demand for coke from steel mills is seasonally declining. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream restocking situation [32][33]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In mid - November, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 1.943 million tons. Steel prices are oscillating. The recent increase in steel prices is related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand does not support a significant increase. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [33][35][36]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Three cold air masses will affect China. After the completion of winter stockpiling, coal prices are driven by actual supply and demand. It is necessary to monitor whether the daily coal consumption turns positive in December to support coal prices at a seasonal high [37]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - 230 steel enterprises have completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. Ore prices are expected to remain high and oscillating in December. It is advisable to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - European copper smelter Aurubis rejects low offers for copper concentrates. AI - driven data centers are becoming a new engine for copper demand. Macro - factors are mixed, and copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to go long on dips [40][41][42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49 per ton. The short - term fundamentals of lead are not weak. It is advisable to close short positions on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2 per ton. There is a risk of a mid - term squeeze on LME zinc. It is recommended to hold long positions in the calendar spread in the short term and exit the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage in a timely manner [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On November 26, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,038 tons. The smelting sector is gradually implementing production cuts, but the balance sheet still shows an oversupply. It is advisable for previous short - sellers to gradually close their positions and consider going long on dips. The situation of resource contraction in Indonesia needs to be evaluated in the medium term [47][48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The UK will include critical mineral reserves in its defense procurement plan. The lithium battery market has optimistic expectations, but there are still differences in short - term market sentiment. It is not recommended to chase the long side. If production resumes and demand weakens in the off - season, it is advisable to go short on the right side. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips [50][51]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased, and EIA commercial crude inventories increased. Oil prices rebounded. It is expected that oil prices will remain oscillating and weak in the short term [51][52][53]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased. The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [54][55]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory decreased significantly, but it is not a substantial positive factor. It is not recommended to go short, but it is advisable to wait and see for short - selling opportunities [56][57]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong showed mixed changes. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The short - term futures price is expected to remain weak. It is necessary to monitor whether supply reduction occurs due to profit compression [58][60][62]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. The decline in inventory supports the urea futures price. It is necessary to continue to monitor the release rhythm of winter storage demand [63][64]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market showed mixed price changes. It is expected that the pulp market will oscillate in the future [65][66]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Chinese ports will resume loading and unloading US soybeans. The spot price of W50 has dropped more than expected, and the European line futures price has declined. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is divided on future interest rate cuts, with market risk appetite difficult to repair, and the market is waiting for non - farm payroll data and NVIDIA's earnings report. [13] - Gold prices are in a downward trend, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut by the Fed is decreasing. [16] - The US dollar shows a short - term volatile trend as the market focuses more on hawkish statements. [21] - The domestic stock market is in a volatile adjustment, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has increased. [24] - The bond market is slightly stronger but is likely to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term. [27] - Most commodity markets show volatile trends, with different supply - demand situations and price trends in various sectors. [28][32][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials are divided on future interest rate cuts. Market risk appetite is difficult to repair, and it is recommended to wait and see. [13][14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US November New York Fed Manufacturing Index is higher than expected. Gold prices continue to fall, and it is recommended to observe whether the $4000 mark can be held. [15][16][17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement on Venezuela and Waller's support for a rate cut. The Fed is divided, and the US dollar shows a short - term volatile trend. [18][20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The domestic stock market is in a volatile adjustment, with a slight reduction in trading volume. It is recommended to stop buying long positions and consider reducing exposure if the market continues to correct. [23][24][25] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market is slightly stronger but is likely to remain in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset. [27][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Palm oil inventory increases, and exports decline. It is recommended to wait and see and be cautious about bottom - fishing. [28][29][30] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices rebound, but the fundamental contradiction is not fundamentally alleviated. It is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset. [32][33] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - International steam coal prices are strong. Coal prices are supported but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan mark. [34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Deep - processing enterprise profits decline slightly. It is recommended to conduct band operations. [36] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company acquires an iron ore project. Iron ore prices are in a volatile pattern with support from downstream valuation and pressure from fundamentals. [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is strong. Short - term fundamentals change little, and prices are in a volatile pattern. [39][40] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Xinjiang red dates are almost off the tree. The futures price is slightly up, and it is recommended to focus on price competition and acquisition progress in the production area. [40][41] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices rise. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the grain - selling progress in North China and wheat auctions. [42][43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A company's US battery factory plans to start production. Polysilicon prices are expected to remain stable in November, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities. [44][45][46] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon industry meeting may determine production - cut targets. It is recommended to go long on industrial silicon at low prices. [47][48] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Lead inventory increases before delivery. It is recommended to short at high prices and wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading. [49][50] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production increases. Zinc prices may enter a high - level volatile adjustment stage. It is recommended to hold short positions, focus on medium - term positive arbitrage, and short - term cross - border arbitrage. [52][53][54] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A gold company plans to split, and a copper mine in Congo has an accident. Copper prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage. [55][56][57] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increases. Nickel prices are under pressure in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on Indonesia's supply - contraction measures. [58][59][60] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company submits a lithium project feasibility study report. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but it is not recommended to chase the rise. [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Sanctions on Russian oil companies may have a long - term negative impact. Oil prices are in a short - term volatile pattern. [63][64] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt inventory decreases. Prices are expected to be stable and weak in the short term. [64][65] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong has a downward - moving trading center. The market is expected to be in a weak volatile pattern. [66][67] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - A pesticide standardization committee is established. Urea prices are in a volatile pattern, and the 01 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1560 - 1760 yuan/ton. [68][69][70] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports increases. It is recommended to wait and see for pure benzene and styrene. [71][72][74] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe has a general trend. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and a bearish view is taken in the medium term. [75] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market fall. The market is in a multi - empty game, and it is recommended to wait and see. [76] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - CMA CGM releases its Q3 results. The 12 - 02 spread has converged, and the market is expected to return to fundamental logic. [77][78][79]