[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 [Table_Summary] FICC 策略：关税恐慌退潮，美元美债何向？ 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 25-01 25-02 25-03 25-04 25-05 1年期美债收益率 2年期美债收益率 10年期美债收益率 % 中美关税暂缓后，短端与长端美债利率均出现显著回升 资料来源： Bloomberg ，国泰君安国际。 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 6 2025年5月14日 | 磨春立 | | --- | | +852 2509 7745 | | inmac zhan @atinc.com hk | 詹春立 张潇子骄 +852 2509 7745 +852 2509 5317 james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk hunter.zhang@gtjas.com.hk 宏观研究报告 中美贸易谈判达成共识，市场情绪得到短期提振。5月 12日，《中美日内 瓦经贸会谈联合声明》出炉，市场迅速从上周末还阴云密布的中美关税 摩擦得到极大的提振。此次中美贸易谈判取得阶段性成果 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices rebounded strongly on May 8, with WTI crude oil futures rising by $1.84 to $59.91 per barrel, a 3.17% increase, and Brent crude oil futures increasing by $1.72 to $62.84 per barrel, a 2.81% rise, due to reduced market concerns over trade tensions [1] - The market reacted positively to the announcement of a new trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K., which includes partial tariff reductions and expanded market access, although many details remain to be finalized [1] - Oil prices are still largely driven by news events, with analysts noting that while there is some optimism regarding reduced tariff tensions, attention must be paid to OPEC+'s plans to accelerate the exit from voluntary production cuts after June [1] Group 2 - Investment banks are continuing to lower their oil price forecasts, with Citigroup analysts reducing their three-month Brent crude oil price prediction from $60 per barrel to $55 per barrel, while maintaining a $60 per barrel forecast for the year [2] - Analysts at Citigroup indicated that if a nuclear agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran, increased supply could push Brent crude oil prices down to $50 per barrel, whereas failure to reach an agreement could see prices rise above $70 per barrel [2]